The suspension of the search for MH370 has been frustrating for many who care deeply about finding the plane. They feel that solving the mystery is essential not just for the emotional well-being of the passengers’ relatives but to protect the safety of the flying public. One group of MH370 relatives has gone so far as to raise money to fund a search on their own.
Assuming one were to raise the money, though, the question would then become: where to look?
Turns out, it’s not so easy to say.
Officially, of course, Australia says it knows where the plane most likely went. As I wrote in my last post, they’ve released a CSIRO report that uses drift modeling and other techniques to argue that the only plausible endpoint is on the 7th arc between 34 and 36 degrees south.
But as Victor Iannello points out in a recent post on his blog, there are some holes in the CSIRO’s logic. For one thing, according to their drift modeling, no-windage debris that enters the water at 35S will reach the shores of Western Australia in fairly significant quantities, but will not reach the South African coast by December 2015, when the real stuff started to turn up there. (You can play around with the kmz files that the CSIRO has made available online; say what you want about the Australians, they have been fabulous about explaining their work and making gobs of data available to the public.)
There’s another problem: the area between 34S and 36S has been searched out to 10 nm and beyond. I am very skeptical that a plane last spotted accelerating downward at 0.6 g, and already descending at 15,000 fpm, could possibly travel anywhere near as much as 10 nm. If anyone has produced flight sim runs that accomplish this, I would very much like to see it. (The IG said as much in their September 2014 paper.)
I’d add my own third reason to suspect that no wreckage would be found in the ATSB’s new search zone: it doesn’t play well with the DSTG’s Bayesian analysis of the BTO data, which is why it was excluded from the 120,000 sq km seabed search as it was ultimately defined.
So if not the ATSB’s new area, then where? South of 39.5S is ruled out because the plane couldn’t fly that far. 36S to 39.5S is ruled out because it’s been searched. 34S to 36S is ruled out for the reasons discussed above. And north of 34S is ruled out because the debris would have been spotted during the surface search.
This is where we stand, three years after the disappearance: with lots of different kinds of clues delimiting where the plane could have gone, it’s hard to make a plausible case that MH370 went anywhere.
UPDATE: Elle Hunt has written a story in the Guardian about Victor’s criticism of the ATSB’s new search zone. Unfortunately it takes seriously the idea that 30S is a plausible alternative. In addition to the ATSB’s assertion that the debris here would have been spotted during the surface search phase, there are the additional problems that:
- Low-windage debris would have reached the coast of southern Africa in early 2015, and the flaperon would have arrived in Réunion late 2014. Both are way too early.
- This endpoint was calculated as having a zero percent probability in the DSTG Bayesian analysis of the Inmarsat data.
@all: Thank you for the friendly feedback, I guess I should have thought about the “Tawi Tawi” theory more before posting – at least my post maybe illustrates the truth in this blog post’s title of ‘Nowhere left to look’ :)… (To sum up, Tawi Tawi is implausible because at least groups like Abu Sayyaf can’t reasonably be assumed to be able to fake the ‘ping rings’ (I guess that would require f.ex. fairly sophisticated assets like a drone mimicking the flight track to SIO or at least a well-equipped ship in the area), and other possible perpetrators would probably not fly to this area.)
@Peter Norton
One rationale for continuing the search would be to provide a proper closure for the NoK. Air France 447 had some significant numbers of victims still in the fuselage.
I feel like, with INMARSAT’s remarkable scientific contribution of defining the 7th Arc, we have not yet done enough. If Arc7 is adequately searched, then the NoK could understand the crash site is unknown. Right now we are in limbo: we have some good idea but not allowed to search. Not acceptable really.
@Sad Jim,
I think the missing 727 case is a bit more relevant than the two 9/11 planes. Up until MH370, it was the largest airplane ever lost without a trace.
What is interesting is that eventually the national security agencies determined it was not a threat. Presumably that has happened with MH370 as well.
http://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/the-727-that-vanished-2371187/
@JS
“What is interesting is that eventually the national security agencies determined it was not a threat. Presumably that has happened with MH370 as well.”
Good interpretation and of course for the same “national security reasons” we the public will probably never hear anything about why MH370 vanished
I apologize in advance for the length of this post, and the sloppy writing, it has been awhile.
I did not intend taking a hiatus from this blog but my frustration crescendoed and my desire to participate dwindled.
Everyone of us got involved in this tragedy for a reason, mine was advocating for the nok, it is simply more difficult to be forgotten when there are more to ignore.
It remains undetermined whether MH370 is placed in historical infamy or as a well fought unprecedented catastrophic failure, evil vs. good.
Vast worldwide resources, applied over 3 years, have been unable to create the truth. After 3 years, not a damn one of us knows what happened aboard MH370; what did or did not transpire, or whether it was heroic or immoral, good vs. evil.
“…. six commercial planes since 1976,……..are believed to have been intentionally crashed by pilots, resulting in the deaths of 605 people.”
https://www.google.com/amp/www.newsweek.com/murder-suicide-plane-crashes-have-killed-over-600-317236%3Famp%
Repetitive I know
1. Lubitz (Germanwings) – documented serious mental health issues
2. Fernandez (Mozambique) – “numerous personal crisis: lengthy divorce, death of a son (suicide), daughter/heart surgery
3. al-Batouti (Egypt Air) – disciplined for a series of sexual misconduct issues; exposing himself to teenage girls/propositioning hotel maids & guests
4. Ming (Silk Air) – “in serious debt and reprimanded by management”
5. Katagiri (Japan Air) – previously grounded for a year from “psychosomatic illness”
6. Kahyati (Royal Air Maroc) – pilot “had been in distress over his love life”.
As everyone should already know, the investigations of all 6 pilots revealed pre-existing
emotional/mental/financial deficits
6 intentional crashes of commercial flights with passengers by pilots in 41 years
In 2014, the world averaged 37 million commercial flights per day, an all time high. Averaging that down to roughly 25 million flights per day for 41 years = 1 billion 25 million commercial flights flown for 41 years.
6
commercial flights from roughly 1 billion 25 million were intentionally crashed by the pilot. Odds of an elusive powerball lottery win would be easier.
The facts are indisputable. No commercial pilot has ever, intentionally crashed the plane they were flying, killing all aboard, without proven mental/emotional incapacity. If 6 out of a billion+ is not ridiculously inconceivable enough, it goes to 0 when a subsequent investigation failed to find proof of the pilot’s mental impairment, either from medical documentation or behavioral research from associated individuals.
Now, we have had sufficient time and documentation in reviewing facts of Captain Zaharie’s mentality. Again, sticking with only the facts, there was zero evidence of any seedy stuff that can accompany an unbalanced mind. His life reflected responsible living and showed progression with the increased stability one should achieve over a 30 year period.
It makes me nuts how the Z did it camp, does not acknowledge his legacy in that regard. Instead they seem effortlessly to pitch accusations easily placing him on a level only the most depraved individuals have earned.
It seems cheap to crucify Captain Zaharie because there are no other options, but let’s face it, after 3 years there are no other options. For so many reasons it makes sense that it had to be him, but I challenge an abuse of placing blame on Z only because the guilty pool was dry. Accusations of Captain Zaharie’s guilt have never been driven by him looking that bad, rather that no one else looked that good for it. So began the process of creating his incrimination, the 3 bullet points below being the bulk of it.
•erased files the FBI found that included a flight plan allegedly reminiscent of flight MH370, except there is no proof of what that flight path was for several hours.
•a woman he met at the office where they politically volunteered, who unequivocally stated the priority of Z’s interest in their friendship were her children, and that it dwindled months before as had his time of political volunteering.
•His support and active participation to support Ibrahim (a distant relative) and the coincided date of Ibrahim’s very predicted legal conviction pending appeal with the massive destruction of hundreds of lives.
I reluctantly remain with a leg on each side of the proverbial fence as I simply cannot discount either Z did or did not do it. I think it is equally conceivable he was or was not responsible.
What I find inconceivable are the individuals spouting idiotic cliches, implying an obvious understanding that we should realize this sort of thing happens fairly easy.
•Pilots commonly being unbalanced is not a rarity,
•they do just flip out sometimes and decide to crash and kill everyone.
•Captain Zaharie may have appeared normal for 54 years but actually had capacity rivaling the most evil terrorist from his successful planning and execution of hundreds
If the hard drive data is legitimate and there are many possibilities for it not to be, then it certainly has major significance. If all the data gathered on Captain Zaharie for the last 30 years is legitimate, and there is almost no possibility it is not, then it certainly has major significance.
We know there is a first for everything but tipping the scales with exceedingly minuscule odds, against Z’s impeccable lack of skeletons, seems beyond foolish.
This is further compounded by the prolific agencies involved with the passage of sim data and only conjecture regarding the nature of Z’s relationships and political allegiance.
For now, this aviation mystery considered the greatest ever, has fueled relentless searches for answers, which have dictated the drive toward conclusions.
This story should be graced by an accurate accounting of what transpired, it does not deserve to be told any other way. If the mystery cannot be unraveled to reveal the truth, then it should remain a mystery.
@Susie Crowe, Beautifully put.
@Susie Crow well said, for me is unimaginable to blame this guy, rather he is hero who executed some order, and frankly, I cant accept he is dead somewhere, nor others
@ABN397
yeah; floating corpses perhaps may be also detected for a while by some military infrared satellites; these days, DSP imaging with neural networks AI can trigger such event to some military dashboard, I hope; but who knows…
If flight MH370 was planned and not accidental, it should be regarded for it’s brilliance, because sadly, evil does not have to be stupid.
Mistakes from the “keystone cops” who protect the sky, whether intentional or just dim-witted luck for the perpetrator, cannot diminish the genius behind it all.
For me, it remains a struggle to put Captain Zaharie on that level.
We need to be awed by an act of this magnitude while acknowledging the level of intelligence and controlled insanity it required for success. This was an inspiration born from darkness and implemented into a skilled path of fruition.
To view it as less than this, removes the shield of protection in which we live our lives. If we do not regard the deranged as isolated, either by their minds or their behavior, what protects us?
If pointing the finger at Captain Zaharie is not without astonishment, then it reflects an acceptance of life without honor. It is a very slippery slope to be blasé by someone becoming a mass murderer no matter how they led their life.
Some of the more obvious and relevant considerations of Captain Zaharie’s capability, were obliterated once the bomb of leaked sim data dropped.
The delivery was golden for the Z did it club, while the outsiders have yet to assign value.
It is rather like the Inmarsat data, same wh•re, different dress and once again it’s dictated by perception.
In terms of aviation skill and opportunity, Z fits like a glove.
Also, not a single tidbit of intimate knowledge has been offered, giving credence to a single individual being responsible, which most incriminates Z.
In my opinion there is only 1 person who definitively knows whether Captain Zaharie was responsible. Why that individual has remained silent could point either way and could also be attributed to fear. I have put myself in her position many times, but cannot simulate fear of safety, if one exists. Without doubt, I know what I would have done if my husband was innocent, which is not, what has been done. In considering his guilt however, I would likely mimic her response in saying nothing and trying to disappear from it all.
@Susie Crowe
“We need to be awed by an act of this magnitude while acknowledging the level of intelligence and controlled insanity it required for success’
Brilliantly put. Yet another reason why Captain Z didn’t do it in my mind.
On the side the provenance of the SIM & ISAT datasets are on the same page. Dubious at best. Believe it at your peril.
The key word in your post, Susie, is “accounting” – in my opinion. As they say, the balance sheet always balances. Said differently, what needs to happen to “unravel the mystery” is to put aside conclusions and emotions and follow the process of “accounting” of every minute detail since much before the flight took off. That has not happened, and not for lack of effort from (at least) a few parties, including Jeff here. I would daresay that this is the only real incriminating bit of evidence here. There are parties here with various skeletons they want to hide – ranging from from ineptitude, to national security, to state secrets, and maybe/possibly cover ups of serious errors in judgment or worse.
What happened here is obviously a perfectly explainable series of events. However, what is clear is that there are entities that have resisted the hunt for those explanations. To me, that’s the nub of the “mystery”. Go after those, and the “mystery” will unravel. Eventually.
Adiyogi
@Peter Norton – Re: Bodies
Here is portion of my 9 June 2015 post:
This report http://asndata.aviation-safety.net/reports/1997/19971219-0_B733_9V-TRF.pdf shows how tiny the parts were after Silk Air 185’s postulated near vertical dive into a river. Some larger pieces that broke away before impact were found on land and appeared to be to be no larger than a few feet by a few feet. Even the landing gear was not intact. Engine blades separated from the discs. No human bodies were found. Only the remains of six of the 104 persons on board were positively identified.
@SteveBarratt @Adiyogi
Certain topics had priority by their incessant discussions, thereby taking the lion’s share of attention. Unfortunately this consumption did not result in locating the plane.
I have read thousands of discussions about the ISAT data, depressurization, flight simulators and debris but I have never read an “accounting” of Captain Zaharie’s final day.
Assuming he would rise between 7-8AM and he checked in for the flight somewhere around 10:30-10:45PM, how was his time spent for those 15 hours? He may have slept for several hours but whatever he did for that entire block of time is vastly important, yet it received no attention.
Proving Z’s guilt or innocence may not help locate the plane, yet is locating the plane more important? If proving a motive is not contigent on locating the plane, motive would seem to have more value. Better to know what happened and why without ever knowing where, then to know without ever knowing why.
Many may claim finding the plane will provide those answers, but the plane has not been found, so where is the justification in continuing to invest whatever you have, when it has failed to deliver.
I dare say after millions of combined hours spent crunching ISAT data, sim data, radar data… and hundreds of millions of dollars spent searching the seas, it may be prudent to consider cutting those losses.
Perhaps it would have been more effective if all the intellect, time and money had been applied toward finding a motive rather than finding a plane.
The three possibilities still remain,
Captain Zaharie was responsible, someone else was responsible or no one was responsible because it was accident. Trying to tackle that even sounds less ominous.
@Susie Crowe “….. The three possibilities still remain, Captain Zaharie was responsible, someone else was responsible or no one was responsible because it was accident….”
Was MH370 an accident or was it an intentional diversion?
If it was an accident it is very difficult to conceive the plane could have kept flying for hours afterwards.
There is enough evidence and informed comment to believe it was an intentional diversion.
If it was an intentional diversion who did it?
It is difficult to accept it was anyone other than Captain Zaharie when looking at the whole saga.
It is very likely that Captain Zaharie would have had a very clear motive.
So many things and actions undertaken point to the authorities being aware of this motive and what was happening from the get go.
It appears possible that it was political blackmail.
@Freddie, You wrote, “It is difficult to accept it was anyone other than Captain Zaharie when looking at the whole saga.”
If Zaharie took the plane, we would not expect the SDU to be rebooted; we would expect the plane to be where the Inmarsat data indicated it should be; we would expect that the debris would show normal marine growth; we would expect the drift modelling to yield a starting point consistent with all debris end points.
None of these things is true. It might seem possible that one of these might have a plausible but accidental explanation, but all of them together suggest that neither a Zaharie-suicide or any other “innocent” explanation (including accident) is viable.
Entitlement of information plagues any investigation, with access generally being dependent on a “need to know”.
Public opinion of that investigation will generally mirror the appeared level of competence. When the process is perceived as transparent and effective, trust builds and the public becomes more confident about results. When the process is plagued by inaccuracies and inconsistencies, the public immediately becomes uneasy and begins demanding answers.
This convoluted battle for release of pertinent information is already adversarial because the public feels deceived.
Their demand for answers appears offensive to the investigative bodies and their “experts”. They are privy to the information because they are qualified and designated to lead, a category in which the public does not belong.
In theory that makes perfectly good sense but in practice there are flaws. Nothing should be free from accountability but in this case, the governing of the investigation of MH370 was ignored by the powers that could. Although it should not have fallen to the public, it did. It did for the obvious reasons mentioned above and many more.
Because none of the agencies stepped in to govern this investigative debacle, it fell to the people following the story, who felt a sense of responsibility to call out the mistakes in order to find and protect the truth.
The involvement for most of us was not bred from arrogance, on the contrary. Many of us have muddled our way through asking questions and seeking answers we otherwise have no business entertaining.
For that, it is not a sense of entitlement I feel, it is instead, a sense of resentment.
We may not have “rights” to know, the families may not be entitled to all the information, but they damn well deserved better than what was given to them, a pathetic excuse of unparalleled resources and power, an unconscionable display of dishonesty, ineptitude and a general disregard of compassion.
Denying the families request to release material pertaining to the search, because it could “cause damage to the international relations of the commonwealth” is a classic example of the investigative continuity, often cloaked in rhetoric.
http://dfat.gov.au/international-relations/international-organisations/commonwealth-of-nations/pages/the-commonwealth-of-nations.aspx
http://thecommonwealth.org/our-charter
So much for my dissertations of the last few days. It will be back to the drawing board to actually try and contribute something of value (and less wordy). We cannot let go, no matter what else this ends up being, we know for sure what it was not. It was not a righteous attempt to bring peace to the families, by placing honorable people in authoritative positions to search for the truth.
@Susie Crowe – 37 million flights per day? I think your stat is off.
@JS
Good catch, fortunately my error of saying day vs. year, was not reflected in the math – flights per year x 41 years, same result
@Nederland
ISBIX!
One path solution could be that the crash site is simply 180S due South of ISBIX (True/Heading).
That path ends up at about 32.5-S on Arc6 with the winds aloft (my current path of interest).
@Jeff Wise “ …. we would not expect the SDU to be rebooted; we would expect the plane to be where the Inmarsat data indicated it should be; we would expect that the debris would show normal marine growth; we would expect the drift modelling to yield a starting point consistent with all debris end points ….”
These points, except for marine growth, have been covered in some detail previously.
@Freddie, Yes, I maybe beating a dead horse. But I think it’s actually worth repeating the fundamental facts of the case, because too many theories have been spun that aren’t in accord with them.
@Lauren H.: good point, thank you
What a stark contrast to flight 77, where all(!) passengers were (alledgedly) identified via DNA.
@Freddie:
“…It is difficult to accept it was anyone other than Captain Zaharie when looking at the whole saga…”
The only hard evidence against Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, is at best circumstantial, but to my mind it is more a case of fur coat and no knickers, with Shah being fingered as the stooge for use as cover in the very unlikely event the plane is ever found.
Trainee First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid is a much better candidate than the pilot as it is very add that we have so much general information about Shah, but bugger-all about Hamid. The few bits of info I’ve been able to glean about the guy are here…
Young man with very rich parents.
Hamid still living at with parents at age 27.
He is a devout Muslim and regular attendee at his local Mosque. (See link re. Malaysian Salafism)…
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/08/28/the-radicalisation-of-islam-in-malaysia-academicians-worry-that-an-exclusivist-way-of-interpretating/
Supposed to be engaged to an Air Asia pilot, but seen a photo showing him already wearing a wedding ring.
His mobile phone was the only one which connected to the network near Penang. He could have made a call.
His dad has big job in government and is responsible for a large development budget.
Now I’m going to relate a completely fictional story called ‘The Perfect Storm’.
It had been a very bad year for the young trainee First Officer. His brothers in the local Mosque were disappointed by his pampered Western life style and and his lack of commitment to the pure style of Islam that they followed. He had recently overheard a conversation between his father and someone close to Najib Razak which left him in no doubt that his respected father was heavily involved in the 1MDB scandal.
Then, just last week the final straw. His family and fiancée had discovered that he has fathered a child whilst studying in Saudi Arabia and had secretly married the girl and continued to provide support for the mother and son. Now what could he do to show the world that he was not just a pathetic spoiled brat and at the same time ensuring himself a place in heaven on the right hand of Allah? Then it came to him, just as dawn banishes the darkness of night, “Yes!I’ll do it. I’ll do it on my very next flight”…
Everything after IGARI is simply a part of an elaborate cover story to hide the true fate of MH370.
@Boris “ …. ‘The Perfect Storm’ ….”
Following on from Susie Crowe’s suggestion of a motive having value your ‘Perfect Storm’ tops anything else when it comes to a motive. Its brilliant.
I was going to elaborate on a motive I have outlined in some detail previously but it pales into insignificance compared to your ‘Perfect Storm’ even though it is fictional and the motive I have previously talked about is based on some evidence.
Regarding Z’s guilt and motive.
It would be nice to hear a concise, logical explanation of describing how a guy like that, became okay with murdering hundreds, flying around with them for several hours, only to be in
a faraway place for the plane to crash and sink because it would be cool to try and never be found.
Mostly, no attention is paid to motive when assessing his guilt. The consensus of guilty opinions illustrates an easy acceptance that he just flipped out, without acknowledging the rarity of that, but attributing it to never really knowing what people will do.
If his political allegiance is seen as the catalyst for pushing him over the edge, the sim data was a trial run, then it was a planned act, what was allegedly meant to coincide with Ibrahim’s day in court.
On March 7, 2014, if Ibrahim’s acquittal had not been overturned,
would MH370 arrived in Beijing the next morning as planned?
excuse the typos
If I was convinced he was guilty, believing the dates synonymous, then his actions after the verdict would be invaluable. Only then, did he decide how he would fly the plane after midnight?
Following on from Boris’s brilliant motive ‘The Perfect Storm’ comes my insignificant version, a possible motive which has been outlined in some detail previously and which is elaborated on here.
At the time of the disappearance of MH370 and subsequently there are things that have been noted that tie in with this motive.
There were also actions undertaken that point to the authorities being aware of this motive and its influence on what happened from the get go.
Some of these are –
ATC did not try to continue contacting the missing aircraft.
SAR was not alerted for hours.
MAS appeared to know what was happening yet let everyone think all was well and allowed the world to think MH370 was on its way to its destination.
The RMAF chief confirmed the plane was picked up by defence radar coming back over Malaysia, was forced to retract, subsequently sacked/retired.
When out of Malaysian radar range a reboot was undertaken to reinstate comms to listen out.
The Prime Minister said the pilot took the aircraft.
The Prime Minister’s wife told the wife of a passenger that the pilots were responsible.
Emirates CEO Sir Tim Clark believes someone took control of the plane and maintained it until the very end. He dismissed pilot suicide as a possible cause of the tragedy.
A MAS operations manager apparently instructed staff to stop discussing the disappearance due to “National security”.
The Indonesian police chief said he knew what had actually happened with MH370.
The RAAF searched the area up near Java for debris in the days after MH370 disappeared. Soon afterwards a number of Chinese ships including a specialist search vessel were in the area.
The 8th of March is a significant historical date for the opposition party that Shah supported.
INMARSAT Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin said they are certain that missing flight MH370 went west over the Andaman Islands and then went south.
Malaysian reports including the police report are full of inconsistencies and omissions of critical material
There was MAS senior management upheaval in the months after the disappearance.
Malaysia’s reluctance to retrieve debris and release data, even now.
The French submarine saga appeared to be the catalyst for Shah becoming so politicised.
Boris Tabaksplatt,
all you have against Fariq is that he is Muslim?
Seriously ?!?
What’s wrong with you, folks.
I don’t know, what frightens me more:
The mass murder/suicide scenario or the preconceptions against Muslims (or Russians for that matter) twirling around on this blog …
I wager my grandma that none of you know a single Muslim in real life.
@Perfect Storm:
It is an uncomfortable fact for liberals, but most of the almost daily kamikaze attacks across the world are undertaken by dissatisfied youngsters belonging to the ‘purist’ extreme Islam of the Saudi Arabia sponsored Wahhabi/Salafi Islamic fundamentalist sects.
Hamid fits the profile of a suicide murderer much better than Shah, although I don’t believe for a moment that either of the pilots were responsible for the MH370 event. It is easy to construct circumstantial evidence which points to either of the pilots, but it is a futile exercise trying to find any proof. All channels of factual information are controlled by various state actors and we are left looking for contradictions and holes when trying to find the truth.
@Freddie:
“…There were also actions undertaken that point to the authorities being aware of this motive and its influence on what happened from the get go…”
Wonder which of these ‘facts’ are genuine and which are part of the cover story – Operation Chaos.
On the theme of motive, what would be an ideal target for a terror mission? Well we know the plane flew very close to Penang (Hamid cellphone connect), and its capital city George Town would be a good place; specifically the KOMTAR Tower…
6th tallest building in Malaysia.
KOMTAR is an acronym for Kompleks Tun Abdul Razak, named after Malaysia’s second Prime Minister.
It is a multi-purpose complex which houses government offices, including that of Lim Guan Eng, the Chief Minister of Penang of Chinese descent, Finance Dept and Kor Risik Diraja Penang, the much hated gestapo-like Malaysian secret police. It is also an important communications and transport hub.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/KOMTAR_Year_2016_April.jpg
I’m confident that religious beliefs don’t have anything to do with this.
Political though…
@StevanG:
“I’m confident that religious beliefs don’t have anything to do with this.
Political though…”
In many countries, including Malaysia, politics and radicle Islam are closely intertwined and almost impossible to separate. For example, The Islamic Republic of Iran is governed jointly by politicians and Muslim clerics of the Twelver school of Shi’a Islam. Many would like Malaysia to be run under such a system which is seen as being less open to corruption than secular politics.
@Boris nonsense;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0H3XOBEsX0
far more dangerous are nazi-like racist comments…
Boris’s idea, “The Perfect Storm”, has some merit, but with a twist.
By way of background.
Early on, in the first few months, when the “ditch or crash at dawn” (by Z) idea was prominent, I was struck by, indeed surprised by, the pheminal number of calculators google turned on the net, for muslims to work out the precise time of sunrise and bearing to Mecca for any place on earth, even “in flight” in airliners.
This intrigued me at the time, so I dug deeper, and found a number of very advanced (mathematically) spreadsheets produced by various Islamic organisatios.
Since then, Z’s life has been examined, and he does not seem to fit the profile of a perpetrator. But also, since then, what we have found out about Hamid’s life, by comparison, is very incomplete, ver shallow. Why ?
It may well be that the perfect storm isea is correct up to the last bit.
What if “he” did not “decide”, to do it, of his own vollition, but instead, what if he was “ordered” to do it, by his cleric ?
Hamid is said to have been both “priveliged” and “very devout”.
He had an unprecedently rapid rise through the pilot ranks in MAS, as we know. That fact was obviously known to his cleric (the cleric may even have had “a hand in it behind the scenes” ?).
What if Hamid had been “selected” by those people, long before, and effectively “groomed” for the “mission”, without Hamid ever realising it, and then, due to his “indescretions” let’s say, he was then blackmailed (emotionally / religiously) by the clerics, at the eleventh hour, into “attoning” for his sins (so to speak) and being handed his orders, the flight plan, that had been pre-calculated by the cleric’s mathematicians ? He was young, very devout, uniquely qualified for such a mission, and very repectful of clerical authority. In such circumstances, perhaps Hamid had no choce but to comply with clerical orders ?
Now, Hamid fits the profile for a suitable perpetrator, and all the facts fit the case.
Why did his phone, and his phone alone (so we are told), try to log on at Penang ?
Was he attempting to “report in” to his cleric, at the last place in Malaysia where he could be reasonably sure his phone would log on to a network, (and let’s face it, his very public profile with the ladies in the cockpit leads me to beleive that he “knew” it could/would work in the air, when within range of multiple towers in a city, since he had “undoubtedly” done it many times in the past).
So, was he attempting to “report in”, something like: “I have the aircraft, and I am proceeding as ordered” ?
We are told that the phone did not succeed with a complete log on, and that no call was actually made, and that no sms was sent.
Perhaps that is true, but perhaps it is not.
“What if” it did attempt to call a “number”, and that “number” was recorded, and has been hidden as “secret” ?
Let’s face it, if such a “storm” was in any way a real possibility, all governments would need to “squash it”.
The priority for them would be to find another more plausible perpetrator for the public to swallow.
Now consider the “inverstigative time line”.
How long did it take the police to find Hamid’s phone’s Penang log on ? A few hours, or days ? I would suggest hours, at most.
How long did it take the police to decide to go and raid Z’s house and get the simulator ? More than a week.
And now, we are supposed to accept that the finally “leaked”, secret “report” on the simulator files, with the the Nicobar and SIO lat/lon points, are supposedly totally legit, and a “slam dunk” against Z ? Way too convenient me thinks.
@Freddie
You get it. Most significantly, the actions (inaction) of ATC and MAS. MAS understood immediately that it was Shah. Their headquarters and ops room were flooded by govt. officials the next morning. 2 hats Hishammuddin was orchestrating and calling the shots from 2am onwards.
I particularly love the explanations people come up with in attempting to excuse MAS only making two attempts to contact the airplane throughout the duration of the event. So you call once, get no answer, and call it a day? Eh, guess will try one more time some 4-5 hours late (forget exact timeline).
On what level does this make any sense other than being directed to NOT make attempts to call MH370?
Anyone?
@Matt
http://ventus45.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/
Thursday, 9 June 2016
What if Z’s motive was political ?
If Z’s motive was political, perhaps the second altitude call was a “signal” to “someone”, that signified, “I have the plane, the plan is a “go””.
I have often wondered about that “mysterious” last phone call Z made in the terminal. When he made that call, everything was “on time and on track” for departure.
The call could have been to an accomplice on the ground, probably in Kota, with a scanner, giving him final confirmation of call-sign, flight-plan route to Igari, estimated time of take-off, estimated time at Igari etc. This person was to monitor the frequency for MH-370’s radio transmissions.
Perhaps the “double maintaining level call” at “about the right time(s), was the signal to that accomplice, that meant, “I have the plane, the plan is a “go””, and thus, it was time for that accomplice to implement the plan to place the political demands on the government.
Now, that would take time. Time is critical here.
The accomplice would have to use an “untraceable phone” (easily obtained) to place one or more calls to certain people in “government circles”, who would then need “time” to “react”, i.e. pass it up the food chain, get people out of bed, etc, etc, enough time for Z to fly back to Penang before anyone in government circles “got their act together”.
Z knew that his flight back across the peninsula to Penang would be seen by both civilian and military primary radars. He wanted to be seen. He had to prove to the government that his demands were real, and not a bluff. He was totally confident that the initial confusion and indecision “at the coalface” among those in the Civil ATC and the Military IADS control centers, in the early hours of the morning, would easily buy him the time he needed (only 35 minutes) to fly back to Penang unmolested.
Furthermore, once passing Penang at 17:52, literally within sight of Butterworth RMAF airbase, the home of the RMAF’s FA-18’s, he could fly up the Malacca Strait full well knowing that would be tracked by the Western Hill PSR, which he dearly wanted, and needed, to give the government the undeniable “it is not a bluff, it is real, I am doing it, bye !” routine.
By the time anyone in government circles could have “got their act together”, it was way too late to scramble any fighters, even if the ground crews and pilots had been “on base”, but not on 5 minute QRA (which they never are – except during exercises).
For all practical purposes, he had given the RMAF (and it’s parent Government) “the finger” (which is grossly disrespectful – from a mere civilian). He was long gone, and by 18:30z, he was “safely out of reach”, north west of Ache, (beyond FA_18 operational radius) and the government would know he was there, and both he and they knew, that there was nothing that they could do about it.. In other words, he had them “over a barrel”.
Mexican stand-off.
The reason for the SDU reboot, was that he was “expecting a call from an accomplice”, from “a known number”, indicating the government knew he had the plane.
Although there was the first sat call at 18:40z, it was not from the “known number” so he deliberately did not answer it.
In accordance with his plan, he flew south, (west of Sumatra) waiting, and waiting, for ‘that call” from “his man”. But, alas, it never came.
After another hour or so (19:40z), with no call from his man, to confirm the government would “play ball”, he knew that the government would not play ball, so “the die was cast”, he proceeded with his “Plan B” to oblivion in the SIO.
I am pretty sure that Z would have been perfectly prepared for this eventuality, and knowing that the CVR had a two hour recording, I am sure that he will have given a full explanation of his actions, and his reasons for doing so, and then, “pulled the circuit breaker” to preserve that information in the CVR, hoping that some day, it would be recovered, downloaded and read, by any honest and trustworthy accident investigation body, of any government, other than Malaysia.
For this reason, if the aircraft is found in the SIO, all the evidence available negates any plausible “accident” scenario, and clearly points to it being there as a result of some “criminal / terrorist scenario”.
Accordingly, since it must first and foremost be considered a most probable crime, of mass murder / suicide, or a terrorist act, criminal legal conventions apply, not “accident” conventions, so ICAO Annex-13 is immediately out the window, on it’s arse, as indeed are any other so called “agreements” that may have been made by the “tripartite states” during the early stages, when all three governments were more than happy to falsely masquerade the “mysterious accident” situation, when they should have clearly suspected (and may have actually known) otherwise.
For these reasons, it is absolutely essential, that if the wreckage is ever found in the SIO, and if the CVR and or FDR is ever recovered, it is critical, that it only be examined by a totally neutral (in terms of the “possibility” of “top down – political interference”) criminal investigation body, preferably the Australian Federal Police.
I repeat, if MH370 is found in the SIO, it is “obviously” a CRIME SCENE, and NOT an ACCIDENT SITE, and it must be treated as a crime, and as a crime scene, by the Legal System, and that LEGAL, CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION, must be totally quarantined, and must NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE CONTAMINATED BY AVIATION INTERESTS of any kind, of any nation.
In my view, the French are completely, utterly and totally correct, in treating the “flaperon” as “evidence” in a “criminal / terrorist” investigation, and keeping it under wraps. All other wreckage or debris previously collected and positively identified as being from MH-370 should also be taken into legal custody as “evidence” by the Australian Federal Police immediately. They have both the LEGAL RITE, and the LEGAL RESPONSIBILITY, to investigate the circumstance of the “unlawful deaths” surrounding the SIX Australian citizens who died on MH370. Therefore, the already collected debris should not, and must not, be allowed, under any circumstances, to be passed on, to any other government, or there agencies, of any kind.
All further wreckage or debris recovered must also be taken into custody by the Australian Federal Police.
In any case, it is beyond critical, that the Malaysian government, never get their hands on the CVR (or FDR, or any further wreckage or debris that may be recovered for that matter), regardless of any pre-existing agreements, accident investigation conventions, or whatever.
.
See also:
https://mh370apilotperspective.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/mh370-important-change-in-protocola-clue.html?showComment=1465434484630#c6247333556549252878
@matt
“I particularly love the explanations people come up with in attempting to excuse MAS only making two attempts to contact the airplane throughout the duration of the event. So you call once, get no answer, and call it a day? Eh, guess will try one more time some 4-5 hours late (forget exact timeline).”
I remember reading a comment from an air traffic controller in another country….we would have kept calling until our fingers bled. The comparison of humanity is chilling, regardless if it was callous or collusion, it was immoral
@Ventus
His last call was most probably to Tim Pardi.
Also, I find the redundant FL350 unlikely to be any sort of ‘signal’ or meaningful communication to accomplices. I think Z acted alone.
This is a longer discussion which I don’t have time for right now, but I’m with you on most of this. Including the political component. I just don’t believe z ever had any intention to negotiate or communicate with anybody. He wanted to exact revenge, period. And he was willing and ready to give his life and take the lives of others in order to do so.
I like your blog and will peruse it tomorrow when I have more time.
Good day mate.
@Susie Crowe
I appreciate your measured calculous and willingness to at least consider Shah capable of such an act.
As for MAS, I just revisited the FI. Their actions that evening were completely nonsensical. It appears to me that they were outright lying to KL ATCC and just making stuff up in order to buy time.
@ ventus45 “…. he knew that the government would not play ball, so “the die was cast”, he proceeded with his “Plan B” to oblivion in the SIO …..”
I believe Shah intended landing the plane in Indonesia and seeing all the passengers safely offloaded.
The initial intention was to land at Banda Aceh once confirmation was received a deal had been done with the Malaysian governing party to call new elections.
In the event Shah heard nothing he would come round below Sumatra to give more time for negotiations.
Overhead Cocos Islands he turned up past Christmas Island to be heading in a similar direction to an approach to Beijing as daylight approached
However a major mistake appears to be going out too far into the Anderman Sea before heading back to Banda Aceh leading to the running out of fuel and ditching in the sea just off Indonesia.
Shah’s intention was to ensure the plane landed safely.
@ventus45
Regarding Captain Z. If as you say “He wanted to be seen” then why did he turn off the transponder etc at IGARI (making 9M-MRO effectively invisible except to primary radar). Also he flew back on an FIR boundary when he should have traveled through Malaysia only. In addition the 777 traveled quite quickly up the Malacca Straits. He should have slowed down if he wanted to be spotted. Finally the SDU was rebooted (is Captain Z capable of doing this???) just outside of radar range. Why?
@Matt
In reference to MAS on 8th March 2014 you state “Their actions that evening were completely nonsensical. It appears to me that they were outright lying to KL ATCC and just making stuff up in order to buy time”. Spot on. Which makes the Captain Z acting alone suicide/political motive difficult (but not impossible).
@Ventus45
re: your long post above.
I like it, and it generally reflects what I concluded some time ago.
@matt
“His last call was most probably to Tim Pardi.”
That call was to his wife.
It was written his wife was uncomfortable staying alone when Z was away overnight and she would spend those nights with relatives.
It was also written (which we have learned does not make it true, I have the link somewhere), he drove to the airport with his wife in their own car that night, when a company car normally picked him up, which is logical he would use the car service when his schedule did not include overnight stays.
It indicates a solid marriage when people continue to incorporate their day that closely (she did not have to drop him off and wait that late before settling in with relatives for the night), especially after 30+ years of marriage.
Driving to the airport with his wife and speaking with her again, minutes before boarding the plane, seems another indication of a normal marriage (it was far too common I would call my husband or he would call me shortly after saying goodbye, because we had forgotten to say something), rather than one that was on the rocks or about to end that night from suicide.
Alleging his guilt by including the sim data, makes it a long term plan. Difficult to imagine he would force his wife to live with that memory, of dropping him at the airport hours before he murdered hundreds of innocent people.
You also said,
“I appreciate your measured calculous and willingness to at least consider Shah capable of such an act.”
Consider yes, but this is an example of many red flags preventing me being convinced of his guilt.
@matt
“His last call was most probably to Tim Pardi.”
That call was to his wife.
It was written his wife was uncomfortable staying alone when Z was away overnight and she would spend those nights with relatives.
It was also written (which we have learned does not make it true, I have the link somewhere), he drove to the airport with his wife in their own car that night, when a company car normally picked him up, which is logical he would use the car service when his schedule did not include overnight stays.
It indicates a solid marriage when people continue to incorporate their day that closely (she did not have to drop him off and wait that late before settling in with relatives for the night), especially after 30+ years of marriage.
Driving to the airport with his wife and speaking with her again, minutes before boarding the plane, seems another indication of a normal marriage (it was far too common I would call my husband or he would call me shortly after saying goodbye, because we had forgotten to say something), rather than one that was on the rocks or about to end that night from suicide.
Alleging his guilt by including the sim data, makes it a long term plan. Difficult to imagine he would force his wife to live with that memory, of dropping him at the airport hours before he murdered hundreds of innocent people.
You also said,
“I appreciate your measured calculous and willingness to at least consider Shah capable of such an act.”
Consider yes, but this is an example of many red flags preventing me being convinced of his guilt.
@ventus45:
At the end of the day, the security circus IC the cover-story are quite happy to have as many as possible plausible stories about what happened to MH370 doing the rounds. Personally, I still lean towards the conjecture that this a spoof event, with the plane never even leaving the ground. This is a much easier and cheaper way to disappear a plane than trying to do it real time, where unplanned events could spoil the operation.
@TBill
Sorry for belated response.
Do you have a chance to verify not just BTOs but also BFOs? I have tried many possibilities, the only one that seems to work, as a waypoint route, seems to be the one I suggested in that paper. Of course it is possible that MH370 wasn’t flying along waypoints, but as far as I know, a direct, straight path from ISBIX would lead into the area searched unsuccessfully, if BFOs/BTOs are taken into account.
@Dennis
Hi, it’s been awhile.
Ironically I was going to comment about you last night and ran out of time. I remember falling short of this once before and did not want to do it again.
Initially, it was only you and @StevanG, as proponents of a political motive in which Z did not intend killing anyone. I do not know which of you proposed it first, I only remember it put you in the minority. Neither of you aggressively pushed the theory and it has remained viable. For me, it still ticks a lot of boxes.
I have missed your pragmatism.
Hi Susie,
Stevan was an early adopter for sure. Don’t really know our exact timing. It does check a lot of boxes particularly relative to the Malay early response. I know of no other scenario that addresses that credibly.
I got kind of burned out on the technical details, and decided to not quarrel about the minutiae of flight dynamics, and fuel range, and how the SDU powered up, and …
None of that makes any difference anymore if it ever did.
First theory I “propagated” was shadowing SIA68 flight on the way to Russia/Kazakhstan. Ditched it as soon as I got proved it was impossible to catch it through Malacca Strait because maximum speed of 777 is very little faster than its cruise speed.
I then stumbled upon a guy who had theory that it might have landed on CI unnoticed(think it was Kevin Staubin), I removed the part about successful landing and found DennisW posts on Duncan Steel blog which further reinforced my thinking about it. Duncan was very keen on deleting DennisW posts along with mine so I also missed a few.
@Freddie
That’s right, it’s called common sense approach which is unfortunately not that common these days…
Shouldn’t we go back to basics?
Either the disappearance of mh370 was a deliberate act or a very horrendous accident.
This is a credible accident theory..
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oz0tucwq4lh02gj/MH370%20Research%20V3.14.pdf?dl=0You
But while I was reading this I began to think about the people on the ground, who are responsible, and paid well for all those lives in the air every day.
I guess its better to point a finger at someone (deliberate) than to think that with ALL the tech we have around the world, we as humans still lost a distressed flight…