Australian Scientists Release Meaty MH370 Report

The Australian Transport Safety Board (ATSB), the organization overseeing the now-suspended ocean search for MH370, has just released a meaty drift-modeling report put together by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), a scientific research arm of the Australian government, entitled “The search for MH370 and ocean surface drift – Part II.” It provides a fascinating level of detail into the research previously detailed by the CSIRO. Most media write-ups of the report emphasize the CSIRO’s own top-line assessment of the work’s significance, namely that “The only thing that our recent work changes is our confidence in the accuracy of the estimated location, which is within the new search area identified and recommended by the First Principles Review.” However, I think it would be more accurate to say that this newly detailed view of the CSIRO’s research points up what a baffling picture the combined evidence presents. To wit:

FLOAT TESTS. Previously, the ATSB had released details of float tests involving replica flaperons. It turns out that these in fact did not float very much like the flaperon retrieved from Réunion and tested in a flotation tank in France. To obtain better data, the CSIRO scientists obtained an actual 777 flaperon and cut it down to the exact (within 2 cm) shape of the real flaperon. (Neat video here shows exactly what part of the trailing edge came away; pity that no analysis has been done to explain what kind of impact might have produced this result.) The cut-down flaperon turned out to float very much like the original, unlike the replicas, as you can see in the image above.

This cut-down flaperon was put out to sea and its drifting characteristics measured. This data was then entered into CSIRO’s drift models. It turned out that the trajectories starting from the previously identified high-probability search area near 35 degrees south were now more likely to impact Réunion Island. Thus, CSIRO scientists were heartened that their previous conclusions were reinforced.

However, I see some other interesting aspects of this work that have not received much attention. For instance, check out these photographs of the cut-down flaperon’s trailing edges:

Hello! The majority of the trailing edge is above the waterline, regardless of the flaperon’s orientation. We already knew this, based on images of the French flotation tests, but the new view is clearer than ever. This is simply impossible to reconcile with the heavy incrustation of the Réunion flaperon’s trailing edge. Previously released videos have suggested that in windy conditions, this part of the flaperon could be periodically immersed, but videos attached to the new report show that in light wind they will stay high and dry for extended periods. Lepas barnacles cannot survive and grow under these conditions.

Intriguingly, the report mentions that four replica flaperons that had been outfitted with telemetry were allowed to float in the open sea for an extended amount of time, but no mention was made of what biofouling they experienced. I would be very curious to know.

DRIFT MODELING. Using the new flaperon drift data, CSIRO asked: presuming an entry point at any given location along the seventh arc, how long would it take a piece of debris to reach Réunion, the coast of Africa, and the coast of Australia? Their results are shown below.

The red-and-white vertical line in the central image shows the arrival time at Réunion. It appears that this is roughly consistent with a start point anywhere between 30S and 40S. Further north, and it would have arrived earlier; further south, and it wouldn’t have gotten there at all. So that’s all good.

Note, however, that debris starting in that range should have arrived in Africa even earlier. In fact, debris only started turning up about five months later. So that’s a bit of a puzzle.

Note also that debris entering the water at south of about 36S should have washed up in Western Australia. Intriguingly, debris that entered around 34S should have also hit Australia. Thus, it seems to CSIRO that there is a fairly narrow window of entry points around 35S that is consistent with both the presence of debris on Réunion and the absence of debris in Australia.

IMPACT OF SURFACE SEARCH. Confoundingly, the document also includes a graphic showing the estimated probability that debris from any given entry point would have been spotted during the extensive surface search conducted by ships and airplanes in the months immediately after the disappearance. This is a bit of a shocker: CSIRO asserts that if the plane impacted north of 33S, there is essentially a 100 percent chance it would have been spotted.

Taken together, these newly released bits of information explain why CSIRO feels reinforced confidence that the plane likely hit the water in a fairly narrow band near 35 degrees south. A problem, as the report acknowledges, is that this area has already been searched up to about 20 nautical miles inside and outside the 7th arc. Presuming that the plane was in a nearly vertical dive at the time of the 7th arc, it is hard to see how it is possible that it came to rest further than this.

The report’s executive summary suggests that it is physically possible that the aircraft could have reached some small distance beyond this:

The new search area, near 35°S, comprises thin strips either side of the previously-searched strip close to the 7th arc. If the aircraft is not found there, then the rest of the search area is still likely to contain the plane. The available evidence suggests that all other regions are unlikely.

I find it very interesting that the CSIRO is saying that, in essence, there is no other plausible end point that fits with the data in hand. The aircraft must be here, or else…

To my mind, the high-and-dry trailing edge of the flaperon suggests that “or else” should receive some decent consideration.

PS: A reasonable question to ask is: Why wasn’t this area searched? The short answer is that it was, but only partially. The area was within the initial search zone, such that “between latitudes 32.8°S and 36°S along the 7th arc the area has been searched to widths which vary from ~12 to 17 NM to the east and ~10 to 21 NM to the west of the 7th arc,” as reported in the First Principles Review.

Eventually the DSTG refined their analysis and concluded that a Bayesian analysis of possible flight paths suggested that an endpoint north of 35.5S was unlikely, so subsequent efforts were concentrated on an area south of 36S.

The First Principles Review also reports that ATSB investigators concluded that the wreckage could not reasonably lie more than 25 nautical miles from the 7th arc.

The distance from 34S to 36S is 350 kilometers. If we say that the area remaining to be searched inside the arc is 10 nm, or 18.5 km, wide, and that the area outside the arc is about the same, then the total area remaining to be searched is roughly 13,000 square kilometers, or about 1/10th of the area searched so far.

But, as I’ve written before, the ATSB realized this quite a while before they ran out of time and money for the seabed search, and they made no effort to look there (except a little bit at the very end).

I personally wonder how at downward-plunging plane could get even 10 nm from the 7th arc. But it’s worth bearing in mind that what the Inmarsat analyis tells us, and what the seabed search tells us, and what the drift analysis tells us, don’t get along very well with one another.

 

44 thoughts on “Australian Scientists Release Meaty MH370 Report”

  1. @Jeff They seem very confident, what if at first it was still attached to part of the wing and came loose later?

  2. @Dennis M, True for some pieces, not for others. The Réunion flaperon was found covered in fresh barnacles, suggesting that it had come ashore within the last few hours. Other pieces, including some piece found actually in the water, were so devoid of marine life that they had to have spent some time recently ashore, getting picked clean, before being washed out to sea again.

  3. @Dave Opperman, Good point. There’s an implicit assumption that all the damage to the piece was done during the moment of impact. I think that’s a reasonable assumption, but it is an assumption.

  4. Thanks Jeff . This opens up more questions.
    Video shows how quickly a flap can be cut up and thrown into the sea as “evidence” .
    The real flap attitude in the sea re barnacles is not consistent at all.
    So lets tie the flap down under water and see how long it takes for the barnacles to grow ! Remember the lighter strip on the “evidence” flap that Jeff discussed?
    4 As Jeff says lets work out how the flap is damaged in this fashion in the first place.
    5 Are we afraid to go and look in the new best case guess location incase its not there I wonder ?
    Lets not forget those on board who are missing , their relatives deserve our help in understanding this mystery .

  5. @Will:

    Excellent find Will. Strange that the location mooted in the article is not on the 7th arc and the timing for the gravity wave event also seems odd as 01:30 GMT doesn’t ring any bells with me?

    Curious that two items about possible locations for MH370 should surface on the same day after a dearth of news.

  6. An impact around -30.9, 97.4 ist just as likely as the impact at -35, according to the above analysis. But that area has not been searched, and the surface search in the vicinity was soon abandoned.

    If you look at the left graphic, nothing supports the assertion ‘Arrival off Africa of other debris exclusively after December 2015 favours impact latitudes south of 32°S’ This sould be ‘south of 30.5°S’

  7. @Richard Cole, Thank you very much for that link! One part that I found interesting was:

    “This last bit of work has made one slightly uncomfortable cog fall into place,” says Dr Griffin.
    “The surface current model said most debris went north of Réunion Island.
    “The model also said that arriving on Réunion in July is too early but possible for the flaperon. I was prepared to accept that but I was always nagged by it. I suspected the real flaperon would go faster because it floated higher in the water and the French modelling said it would go left.
    “We did the field testing and I saw straight away on our boat that it was going to the left. I knew this would explain the arrival at Réunion.”

    Behind the scenes, then, Griffin was troubled by the fact that his model didn’t really match well with the arrival of the flaperon at Réunion, but since it wasn’t totally incompatible either, he went ahead with the public pronouncement to the effect that the discovery was consistent with the search area then being explored at the time. In an ideal world, investigators would be free to express their true opinions, rather than feel pressure to reassure to endorse the value of an ongoing project. I understand that we are not living in an ideal world. Thus while recognizing the competence and good intentions of the scientists working on MH370, we also have to read between the lines to deduce their true views.

    Unfortunately the media–both mainstream press and aviation trade press–takes their statements solely at face value. Thus this latest development is being reported as “Boffins extra-confident they know where the plane went” when it is really more like “new data refines model’s predictive power.”

  8. @Jeff Wise:
    “…Behind the scenes, then, Griffin was troubled by the fact that his model didn’t really match well with the arrival of the flaperon at Réunion, but since it wasn’t totally incompatible either, he went ahead with the public pronouncement to the effect that the discovery was consistent with the search area then being explored at the time…”

    The problem with all models is that many assumptions have to be made about the repeatability of ocean currents, winds and temperature back in Mar 2014, as the number of measuring points across the vast SIO is tiny in comparison. The other factor is that drift patterns are driven by processes which display high levels of spatio-temporal chaos, an area of science that is only just being acknowledged, and its effects are only poorly understood. I would be surprised if the could place wreckage from a crashed plane close enough to make a new search viable.

  9. @Jeff Wise

    Back on track. At least CSIRO/Griffin have made an important effort with an actual flaperon and I think those extra data are valuable in any regard.
    I agree it shows some signs of probably ‘confirmation biased’ calculating.
    Their 35S segment is way out of line with their own sequence. Which actualy preferred the 31S/29.5S segemnts.
    IMO this needs explanation at least.

    I’m sure you saw the video of the flaperon flipping over so easily, reported to do this every minute or so in higher wind and wave conditions.
    Would this be enough for barnacles to attach, grow and survive for a lenght of time?

  10. @Ge Rijn, I don’t think that periodic wetting is sufficient to sustain a Lepas population, but I also understand that in the absence of hard evidence it’s going to be difficult to convince people of that. That’s why I just wrote to CSIRO and asked if the replica flaperons that had been left to float for extended periods of time had been examined for biofouling. I’ll let you know if I hear an answer.

  11. MH370 disappeared around the time of the invasion of Crimea by Russia.
    Many have written about hybrid-warfare tactics employed by Russia during the invasion including the weaponization of information.
    Some, myself included, have speculated that MH370 was made to ‘disappear’ as part of a hybrid-warfare tactic employed by Russia with the aim of displacing the invasion of Crimea from the headlines of the world’s media.

    MARC GALEOTTI is a well known Russia and Kremlin analyst.
    He has written a very interesting article about the links between Russian intelligence agencies and Russian Organized Crime.

    http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/crimintern_how_the_kremlin_uses_russias_criminal_networks_in_europe

    There is an image included in the paper for illustrating the major smuggling routes operated by Russian criminals.

    One of the major transshipment points controlled by these criminals is Odessa in Ukraine.

    It’s interesting that in the aftermath of the Maidan revolution in Ukraine, and the election of Petro Poroshenko as Ukraine president, US educated Mikheil Saakashvili, former president of Georgia (also president during the Russian invasion of Abkhazia), was appointed governor of Odessa to clean up the corruption of the region. Saakashvili gave up the governor post defeated by the intractable corruption.
    During the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, which also happened to coincide with Beijing Olympics similar to the 2014 Sochi olympics, Lech Kaczynski president of Poland lead a delegation of 5 leaders of former soviet republics to Tbilisi to lend moral support. Lech Kaczynski was killed in 2010 crash of Polish airforce plane in Smolensk Russia, which is now suspected to be a deliberate crash.

    Some points to consider for the MH370 case:
    – the 2 Ukrainian passport holders, described by French journalist Florence de Changy as most likely to be suspected in case of highjacking, came from Odessa
    – they were described as ‘furniture’ salesmen in their lawsuit against MAS, but furniture packaging is one of the preferred means for smuggling illicit goods
    – human smuggling is another main activity of Russian criminals, and the 2 Iranians on board MH370 were travelling to Europe for asylum using stolen passports of Europeans
    – one of the European passports was originally stolen in Thailand by a ‘russian’ speaking person in 2012

  12. Ge Rijn: « I’m sure you saw the video of the flaperon flipping over so easily »

    Where can this video be seen ?

  13. @CliffG, Galeotti is a treasure, by chance I just happened to be reading another piece of his about how the Russian government has seeded intelligence agents througout the business community: http://www.intellinews.com/stolypin-adding-spooks-to-companies-creates-stagnation-119924/?source=russia
    It’s all a big tangle–the Kremlin, oligarchical businesses, organized crime, the intelligence services. Now the White House, too, is tied into this mess. We’ll see today how effective their efforts are in France.

  14. @Cliff and all

    criminal involvement

    Couple of month ago in a resume about what to do, i suggested to employ or recruit economic expertise, to find out who might have cashed in on stock options and the like , betting on the down turn of MAS related stock, after the two incidents.

    Now we have the first such crime proven in germany in the bombing of the famous soccer team bus of Borussia Dortmund right b efore the quarter finals. The bomber was proven to have placed stock options of about 60.000 euro to gain a profit by the suffering of the borussia Dortmund stock . The perpetrator would have cashed in some hundred thousand Euro if he was more successful in hurting the soccer team, it is said, he needed to kill part of the team to get through with his plan.

    Now guess what nationality he had? You will not be surprised that he was an immigrant from russia.

    Now people say oficially that he did it solely on his own. But it would perfectly fit into the agenda of hybrid war activities, causing fear and terror and an air of insecurity that lets people vote for strongmans and hangmen.

    I just repeat the suspicion that MH370 and MH17 were maybe part of a mixed criminal and political agenda, where Malaysia was deterred from too clos close ties to Kazakhstan, and the criminals employed for the action were rewarded with a possible windfall profit by betting against malaysian stock. At the same time it was a a perfect shade for conquering crimaea and east ukraine.
    It would fit perfectly well into the discussion of a russian think tank. If we look at the intercepted foncall between the GRU Colonel and the BUK-commander that shot wone MH17, there was obvious, that the shoting down was part of a major olan. It was deliberate.

    And this all explains perfectly why there was so much effort by the russian troll factories to spoil the discussion and spread their desinformation like generated by troll bots.

  15. @CosmicAcademy, Shortly after reading your comment I came across this story in the Guardian about the shady possible links between Russian intelligence and the architect of Brexit: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/arron-banks-interview-brexit-ukip-far-right-trump-putin-russia?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Note that the man behind a California initiative to secede from the United States recently pulled up stakes and moved to Russia!

    Back to MH370, it’s hard to know which of the small army of “independent researchers” spinning ridiculous theories might be Kremlin agents, but I think it’s worth noting that GeoResonance, which gained an enormous amount of press attention in 2014 with its absolutely spurious claims that it had used a new kind of imaging technology to detect MH370’s wreckage off the coast of Bangladesh, is a Ukrainian company.

    I would add, though, that knowing what we know now, I don’t think that there is any organic political reason for anyone in the West to be pro-Putin. By which, I don’t see any point on the traditional left-right spectrum from which the Kremlin’s actions can be viewed sympathetically. Once upon a time, there was a faction of the left in the US that was sympathetic to the ideals of communism. But there is no faction anywhere agitating for kleptocracy as a desirable system per se. Therefore I am skeptical of those, such as Brian Anderson in the IG, who openly state that they prefer Putin to the West.

  16. @CosmicAcademy

    You said:
    “Now we have the first such crime proven in germany in the bombing of the famous soccer team bus of Borussia Dortmund right b efore the quarter finals. The bomber was proven to have placed stock options of about 60.000 euro to gain a profit by the suffering of the borussia Dortmund stock . The perpetrator would have cashed in some hundred thousand Euro if he was more successful in hurting the soccer team, it is said, he needed to kill part of the team to get through with his plan.

    Now guess what nationality he had?”

    This is quite the revelation for me!

    I remember joking that evening that it must’ve been the Russians who ‘ordered’ the attack (they own the opposition team – Monaco). The Champions League is highly prestigious and any such attack would serve the purpose of distracting Borussia to help see Monaco through to the next round…

    I never thought for one moment that my ‘prediction’ would actually come true…

  17. I have studied the drift release and CSIRO they are confident of a site close to 30-32 degrees latitude. their longitude to me does not fit if they feel the plane is further north.
    I did find a blue line drift to Reunion on the new chart which is located at 17-20 latitude and 90-92 Longitude. But not in the most favoured area with the data.
    What is interesting the only parts found from the plane and it’s self are right wing flapron and winglet from the right tail side ‘no step’ may have been possible the ‘jigger stick’ about to stall sequence. Possibly indicates soft landing and wing took the impact after bottomed which would have cause damage to side of plane. Explains why, very little floatation has been found. I have the plane flying 3038nm, five hundred and thirty two minute flight.
    Having read the above comments and M17,MH370 I wish to comment about MH17 later.
    I have spent 6 months 24/7 on this I’m a little worried that there may have been two planes near the same location at Chats Corner I almost certain MH370 flew McMurdo waypoint after Igogu. Later turned North West on the handshake at 1211 UTC. Inmarsat 18040 Burst comfirms that.
    The ping break after 2041 UTC before Cocos National Park was timed to arrive after dawn 0506am local or about 2220 UTC explains why the plane slowed after Igogu also needed to conserve fuel. Do your maths work out what 18040 Inmarsat burst represents in nautical miles from Comsat will give you the Latitude then scribe intersecting line with McMurdo. Inmarsat and their readings were lost why because the planes angle moved too low for Comsat.
    Freescale has now merged into an even bigger company Registered in the Neither lands Wikipedia about June 2015.

    This is very political and sure in the future more to come. I’m thinking of the tragic lost of life, because I live in Australia and those people on MH17 and MH370

  18. @Barry Williams, You haven’t studied the new report very carefully. They clearly state that the only entry point that comports with their drift modeling is around 35 degrees south.

    As for the rest of your commment, what little is comprehensible is erroneous.

  19. @Jeff Wise.
    The port of Odessa, Ukraine was a key transshipment point for smuggling illicit goods.

    With Ukraine falling under the EU orbit after Euro-maidan, there was a risk that Odessa would be obliged to cooperate more fully with EU customs officials and clean up its corruption. This exactly what happened when Mikheil Saakashvili was appointed governor of Odessa by Poroshenko.

    Since Odessa AND Crimea were part of Ukraine, their loss would be highly significant to the Russian criminal enterprises that currently control the smuggling operations.

    But if Crimea were to go back to Russia, Sevastopol would remain open as a smuggling route. So in the post-Maidan world, to guarantee the maintenance of the Black Sea smuggling routes, there would be an allignment of interests between the Russian criminal underworld, and the Russian intel. agencies tasked with capturing Crimea.

    MARC GALEOTTI has written a nice article on VICE about the Ukraine invasion and Global Crime.
    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/how-the-invasion-of-ukraine-is-shaking-up-the-global-crime-scene-1106

    But what is more interesting is the opinion piece on the smuggling route re-allignment that WAS on the Telegraph site, but no longer hosted there. (it can still be retrieved on webarchives).

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/colinfreeman/100266350/ukraine-crisis-battle-lines-are-being-drawn-in-the-black-seas-smuggling-wars/

    – After the collapse of communism, many ex-Soviet personnel became smugglers.
    – The 2 Ukrainian passport holders on MH370 aged 45-50 would have been of military service age in the late 1980’s-early 1990’s.

  20. @ Jeff the unWise,

    “Therefore I am skeptical of those, such as Brian Anderson in the IG . . . . . ”

    You are truly delusional. I presume that you are familiar with the definition of slander.

    I have never even mentioned Putin on your blog site. I have NEVER expressed a preference for Putin over the West, neither here, nor anywhere else for that matter.

    You are completely incorrect and hence I request, politely, that you retract your statement and apologise.

    Some months ago I happened to point you to a reference news source that had a view diametrically opposed to your quote from the Washington Post. That got you and some of your other contributors in a tangle.

    I happened to mention at that time that I met my wife in Moscow. I also mentioned that I have been to Moscow four times, the first three in the mid to late 70’s and then again about 5 years ago. You know nothing of the circumstances or the purpose of my visits and it would be unwise to leap to any conclusions. Perhaps it may help if I tell you that in fact I had a positively vetted top secret security clearance in the 70’s.

    We returned to Moscow for a visit about 5 years ago to reminisce. Massive changes there, but all the people we met, especially the young people, were all exceedingly pleasant.

    It’s a great pity that you and some others contributing to this blog have such closed minds about other countries, other people and other points of view. I imagine that it is the result of years of propaganda waged against these different points of view by politicians and MSM. The world could be a better place without that.

    What is the “West ” anyhow. Your contrast is illogical. Is the west the American view (well which American view actually), or that of Canada, or the UK, or Western Europe, or Australia or NZ. The only consensus amongst all these is likely to be the propaganda published by the MSN.

  21. @Brian Anderson, The more you write, the more your Putinist inclinations show.

    I have not forgotten the great lengths that the Independent Group, of which you are a member, went to promote the idea that MH370 would be found in the southern Indian Ocean. You (perhaps you individually less so than some other members of the group, but you as a group) were instrumental in misleading the media about this. Indeed I think the IG’s outreach efforts were a major reason that the media accepted so unquestioningly the idea that the Inmarsat data was unimpeachable.

    Whether intentionally or merely out of incompetence, the IG has done a remarkably effective job of creating a fog of confusion surrounding the fate of MH370.

  22. @All:

    If you want an insight into how far propaganda has been developed into a tool capable of changing the Zeitgeist of the population of the world have a look at this:-

    […This is the world we enter every day, on our laptops and our smartphones. It has become a battleground where the ambitions of nation states and ideologues are being fought – using us. We are the bounty: our social media feeds; our conversations; our hearts and minds. Our votes. Bots influence trending topics and trending topics have a powerful effect on algorithms, Woolley, explains, on Twitter, on Google, on Facebook. Know how to manipulate information structure and you can manipulate reality.

    We’re not quite in the alternative reality where the actual news has become “FAKE news!!!” But we’re almost there. Out on Twitter, the new transnational battleground for the future, someone I follow tweets a quote by Marshall McLuhan, the great information theorist of the 60s. “World War III will be a guerrilla information war,” it says. “With no divisions between military and civilian participation.”…]

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/robert-mercer-breitbart-war-on-media-steve-bannon-donald-trump-nigel-farage

    So the info-war which was started by the powers that be many many years ago, has now reached a new pinnacle of perfection. The aim is to control what public opinion should be, while denigrating those who have other views. Time for a mass boycott of all social media and for viewing anything pushed by the MSM with a large dollop of critical thinking and scepticism.

  23. @Jeff Wise:
    “…Whether intentionally or merely out of incompetence, the IG has done a remarkably effective job of creating a fog of confusion surrounding the fate of MH370.”

    My thoughts exactly. As the disinformation and cover-up of what happened to MH370 started as soon as waypoint IGARI, I get the feeling that the IG were just following the leads based on the (possibly fake) Radar/INMARSAT data.

    It could be telling about the motives of the IG if we knew the who/how of the groups formation and how the group links to the official investigation. Any information of the context of the different parts of the MH370 investigation is useful, as I believe much of the detailed ‘common knowledge’ about the event is totally bogus.

  24. @Boris, In my recollection, the IG began as a group of people emailing one another about technical aspects of the case. It was Richard Godfrey who came up with the name “Independent Group” and the idea of promoting it was an actual entity that then became a reputable source for journalists to turn to.

    In the early days, Godfrey was very aggressive about making authoritative claims that, if you understood the math at all, didn’t make any sense–for instance, he’d claim that the Inmarsat data showed that the plane turned south and such-and-such a point, and would produce detailed routes. In the years since, he has shown remarkable energy at countering any attempt I’ve made to move the ball forward with similarly spurious but serious-sounding white papers. For instance, when I showed that historical drifter data were not compatible with flaperon barnacles spending most of their life in 18-20 deg C water, he rather speedily came out with a report arguing the opposite, using even more data (but disingenuously analyzed, IMO).

    Interestingly, it was Godfrey who first raised the idea of Baikonur as a potential endpoint, way back in the days before the BFO data had been figured out.

  25. A good example of Godfrey bamboozling the press can be found here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/19/why-hasnt-mh370-been-found

    Godfrey makes the outlandish claim that “As long ago as September 2014, he and 12 other members of the IG co-authored a report recommending that the width of the search area be reduced but its length be extended northwards.” But in the report that is linked to, the IG in fact recommends a search area that is much further south than what the ATSB was looking at, stretching from 35S to 37.5S. The following month, the ATSB indeed shifted their search south, defining a zone that was much longer than the IG’s, stretching between “33.5°S and 38.3°S.” It’s because of this search area, subsequently discarded, that the ATSB’s current search area was scanned out to a distance of about 10 nm from the 7th arc.

    Worth noting is that in that same report the IG does deserve credit for one important insight: that the 0:19 BFO value can be interpreted as meaning that the plane was in a steep descent of around 15,000 fpm. This is the view that the ATSB now holds but it took them years to arrive at it. In the June ’14 report the IG states that “we believe MH370 impacted the water within seconds after the last signaling unit log record, and within 1 NM of the 7th arc. This finding suggests that the width of the impact arc could be reduced from -20/+30 NM to approximately ±10 NM.” As I note in this post, that area has already been searched!

    BTW another whopper that Godfrey tells in the Guardian story is that I was kicked out of the IG for “abusing members’ trust.” This is simply not the case. I was kicked out for going public with a theory that Godfrey and some of the others in the group did not like, period.

  26. @Jeff the unWise

    The more you write the more you slander people.

    Your rants show quite clearly that you have become delusional. Clearly you have become brainwashed through years of being subject to propaganda undoubtedly through the MSN.

    Your statement about me ….. ” who openly state that they prefer Putin to the West” is a lie. I have NEVER said such a thing. It is slander, and once again I request that you retract that statement and apologise.

  27. I’m sorry, but let’s not be disingenuous here. Please assume readers here have cognitive skills and the ability to extrapolate. There is nothing wrong with supporting someone, or having another point of view. At least have the gumption to own up to it when pointed out?

    If that’s not the poster’s point of view, maybe this is indicative of the poster’s written communication skills (or lack, thereof?). Please don’t cast aspersions on readers’ intelligence with weak attempts to distract and requests for apologies.

    Adiyogi

  28. Also, the delicious irony of crying “slander”, while proceeding to make juvenile observations about someone’s name, as well as sweeping/nonsensical conclusions.

    Adiyogi

  29. @Adiyogi

    Now it is you leaping to ( totally incorrect) conclusions. It is just not possible to extrapolate anything from anything I have said. To do so puts you in the same league as the MSN. You know nothing about the reasons for my visits to Moscow in the 70’s. You might be surprised to learn though that I met a number of American, Canadian and British people doing very similar things in Moscow at that time.

    And, why hide behind a pseudonym?

  30. @Adiyogi

    Now it is you leaping to ( totally incorrect) conclusions. It is just not possible to extrapolate anything from anything I have said. To do so puts you in the same league as the MSN. You know nothing about the reasons for my visits to Moscow in the 70’s. You might be surprised to learn though that I met a number of American, Canadian and British people doing very similar things in Moscow at that time.

    And, why hide behind a pseudonym?

  31. Here’s a random story about MH370 that may not have been reported on this forum.

    WARNING: this story may have been falsely released by an unscrupulous Chinese businessman to generate publicity for his business but the same businessman told police that it it’s mostly true.

    LA TIMES: Stolen passports on Malaysia flight used before, Chinese firm says
    http://articles.latimes.com/2014/mar/17/world/la-fg-wn-stolen-passports-malaysia-flight-20140317

    Xie Zhuoling, the head of a firm that recruits foreign performers for nightclubs and hotels, said that employment contracts had been signed in June [2013] for Christian Kozel, an Austrian, and Luigi Maraldi, an Italian, to work as dancers in Ningxia, northern China.

    “I remember at the time, these contracts looked very suspicious. Normally when we recruit performers they are from the Philippines or Russia, where wages are cheap, not Western European countries like Italy and Austria,’’ said Xie

    CHINA HUSH: MH370: Did the L.A. Times get fooled by Tianya forum?http://www.chinahush.com/2014/03/20/photo-of-work-permit-mh370-stollen-passport/

    Lots questions raised about the authencity of the document.

    SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST:Businessman ‘hired dancers’ with names matching Flight 370 passports
    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1452721/businessman-hired-dancers-names-matching-flight-370-passports#comments

    “Yinchuan police confirmed that they questioned Xie on Monday and took the alleged documents for investigation.
    “We are investigating the contracts and cannot comment before we can conclude if they are authentic or not,” an officer said.”

    PROS
    – if dates are authentic, the plan to use both these fake passports in one flight would have been made prior June 8 2013, and to be flown between Feb-May 2014
    – dancers are athletic, meaning physically fit persons meet the profile
    – cheap male dancers from Russia? So it was not unusual to have male dancers from Russia working in China
    – LA Times is a respectable source

    CONS
    – Maraldi reported his passport lost July 22 2013, whereas contract signed Jun 8 2013
    – chinahush.com is very skeptical of the contract’s authencity

  32. @Jeff Wise:
    “In my recollection, the IG began as a group of people emailing one another about technical aspects of the case. It was Richard Godfrey who came up with the name “Independent Group” and the idea of promoting it was an actual entity that then became a reputable source for journalists to turn to…”

    Thanks for the IG info Jeff. After a bit of digging around about the group members it would seem that most got eMails asking them if they wanted to join, including the anonymous members. Of course this is not surprising as I know many people got hooded on the MH370 mystery within days of the event, myself included.

    BTW, some of the bios of the IG are very impressive. Dr Iannello ScD has an amazing one, and he would certainly be my pick if I ever had to set up an investigative team…

    http://radiantphysics.com/team/

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