The apparent downing of the business jet carrying Wagner chief Evgeniy Prigozhin delivered a suitably brutal end to one of Putin’s most ruthless and effective deputies. It also underlined the extent to which Russia has been willing to set aside the niceties of aviation safety in the raw exercise of power.
Throughout the rest of the world, civil aviation is sacrosanct, a highly protected and regulated industry bound by international treaties enforced by powerful agencies like the Federal Aviation Administration in the United States and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency in the EU. Passenger safety is paramount. As a result, fatal accidents are exceedingly rare: The United State hasn’t had a fatal crash since 2009.
In 1978, the Soviet Union shot down an off-course Korean Air Lines 707, forcing it to crash-land on a frozen lake with the loss of two of the passengers and crew. Five years later, it shot down another off-course Korean Air Lines airliner over the Sea of Japan, killing all 269 aboard. In both cases, Soviet officials claimed that they were acting in self-defense, yet in both fighter jets had approached close enough to their targets to see that they were civilian airliners.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, its successor state, the Russian Federation, modernized its civilian aircraft fleet, and for a time safety improved. But after former KGB agent Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999, the Kremlin gradually returned to its old ways. In 2014, as a Russia-backed insurgency raged in the eastern part of Ukraine, a regular Russian army anti-aircraft unit shot down a Malaysian Airlines 777 en route from the Netherlands to Malaysia as it neared the border between Ukraine and Russia. All 298 passengers and crew were killed. To this day, it remains unclear why the plane was shot down, but in the aftermath Ukraine halted its air-force attacks on Russian ground units and its counteroffensive against the invaders stalled.
Less fatally, Russia’s client state Belarus in 2011 forced down an international flight passing through its airspace in order to seize dissident journalist Roman Protasevich. After the Ryanair 737 landed in Minsk, Protasevich was pulled from the plane and jailed, while the aircraft and the rest of its passengers were allowed to proceed to their original destination.
Russia has interfered in aviation safety in subtler ways as well. In recent years, it has periodically tampered with GPS signals so that navigational systems on ships and airplanes suddenly show their locations as hundreds or thousands of miles from where they actually are. Again, it’s not entirely clear why Russia does this, though it may have to do with protecting high-value assets, as GPS is also used in the targeting systems of some high-precision weapons.
The Prigozhin shoot-down occurred two months to the day after the Wagner Group boss launched an apparent coup attempt that left many onlookers wondering how long Prigozhin could survive his boss’s predilection for Game of Thrones–style revenge. The plane, an Embraer 600 business jet, was cruising at 28,000 feet north of Moscow when all data transmission abruptly ceased. Amateur video taken by bystanders on the ground showed a puff of smoke followed by the aircraft’s vertical descent. Footage shot on the ground showed dismembered bodies and burning, scattered debris, some of it apparently punctured by anti-aircraft missile shrapnel.
Putin’s opponents have long had a tendency to meet violent ends. The most common is to fall out of a high window, though others have suffered different unpleasant fates, including being poisoned with exotic toxins. The fact that Prigozhin was dispatched in a such a conspicuous way may come down to the simple fact that, as a military leader well versed in the brutal intrigues of the Russian court, he was too difficult to kill in a subtler manner.
The apparent shoot-down might also have been at least partially symbolic. During the coup, Prigozhin’s troops shot down seven Russian military aircraft that had been deployed against them, killing more than a dozen servicemen. The sole fixed-wing airplane to be shot down was a rare and valuable Ilyushin Il-22M, a small plane used as an airborne command post. All ten aboard were killed — the same number that died on Prigozhin’s plane.
@Jeff Wise:
I am surprised you didn’t connect
Prigozhin crash – MH17 – MH370
in your article.
@Peter, I definitely considered it — but given how controversial the idea remains for many people I felt like including it would weaken the specific point I was making here. Suffice to say, the more people come to accept that Russia in general, and Putin in particular, does not respect the lives and rights of air travelers, the less outlandish the MH370 spoof theory will seem.
@Jeff Wise:
It’s been awhile, but was thinking of checking back in to read your thoughts on Prigozhin’s plane going down. My first thought upon hearing the news was that it’s slowly becoming clearer to the rest of the world just how unique of a position Putin is really in. I always believed that both the sequence and exact nature of events required for MH370 to disappear pointed to a sophisticated plot- Your excellent research on the SDU convinced me more than anything else.
Of course there are many other nations with leaders who have both the means and motives to down civilian a/c.
The difference with Putin is he not only the most sophisticated tools and network to carry out such plots, but he has a proven record of doing so recklessly and without much concern for political fallout or repercussions.
I remember well the doctored satellite photo with the Ukrainian fighter launching a missile he tried to sell as responsible for downing MH17. I couldn’t help thinking how bizarre- such little effort in trying to cover up his tracks.
It seems to me Putin- like a career criminal or serial killer, has continually become more brazen and reckless over the years in eliminating those he perceives as threats. Nobody knows for sure when the key piece of evidence will be discovered and unlock the mystery of MH370. But I’m confident Putin’s rule over Russia is coming to an end sooner than most think- And when that happens, there’s a chance someone could talk.
@David Weller, Very well put, and thanks for your kind words. I wholeheartedly agree.
Any thoughts on recent article on using barnacles to detect source. Is this something new or a rehash of your prior posts.?
Scientists think they can finally reveal what happened to doomed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 – one of the biggest mysteries of our time – nearly a decade on.
According to experts in Florida, the answer may be contained in the shells of little crustaceans called barnacles that attached themselves to bits of the plane’s debris.
@Trip, Yes, a team of researchers has released a paper proposing that they use a new method of chemical analysis to figure out where the barnacles drifted. So far work along these lines has failed to produce useful results because the different methods used thus far have produced contradictory results. Also, the shells that have analysed were quite young so wouldn’t tell much about where the debris originated.
Not related to this article but there’s some news from Phuket. Today two pieces of what appears to be aircraft wreckage from the Andaman Sea have washed up in two locations. Karon Beach Phuket and near Khao Lak Phang Nga Thailand. Yet to be identified.
I thought this might be of interest.
Links to Facebook new postings are:
https://www.facebook.com/100044512386509/posts/pfbid02FG9dd4pZ9212VkrHxymwHnGW4rsDHNyTSJZqimT74ouMmuoajAGop6JL1roHnHHfl/?mibextid=cr9u03
https://www.facebook.com/100070532641834/posts/pfbid02KJx8eoW18ixa1hJCe2g7WobHssrnQKoTBES4RahzEWrry1AQasW329r2UKsZhH5tl/?mibextid=cr9u03
@Pray, thanks for this. Wonder if they don’t look more like parts of space launch vehicles.
Hello Jeff, My name is Gisele I’m 10 years old , and I recently just watched the Netflix documentary MH 370. I was on google earth searching where Flight 370 went missing. I was searching on an island near island port Luis. I’m not sure if this is any kind of debris. I tried contacting you on email but it didn’t work.
@Gisele, Hi, thanks for writing! I’ll shoot you an email so you can show me your image.
I’m watching the Netflix documentary on the Malaysian flight. Thanks for your research, Suddenly the sky became a dangerous place to be. I’m traveling abroad next week. Hope the Russians not…
@Betty, Thanks for your comment, stay safe out there!
Putin on Tuesday announced plans to visit the Vostochny Cosmodrome, Russia’s main spaceport since 2016 where he will meet Kim. So 2 years after mh370 Russia moves main spaceport to Vostochny? Interesting way to hide evidence. Just move to a new location.
@Jeff- Just had finally an opportunity to watch the first 2 episodes of the Netflix documentary (Dog sitting at friends who have a subscription). I have to say the show was better than I had expected after reading much of the commentary about it online. Some bits that filled in some gaps I had about de Changy and Exner’s efforts and theories. Wish it would have included a little more specific details on your exhaustive research (SDU intricacies, Expert interviews), but overall I think you did well to show that your theory is based in logic and solid investigative work. I never spent much time looking into the two E3’s and Australian airbase factors mentioned by de Changy, but I would guess that Military trail would lead to a solid dead-end. Imo what we are still left with is evidence of a deliberate act with motive/execution/coverup at the state actor level far beyond a career pilot’s sophistication and execution capabilities. I’m glad you held your ground on Gibson and look forward to pt3.
@Dave W, I’m glad you’ve been able to start watching the show. I quite agree about de Changy’s ideas almost certainly leading to a dead end; one has to wonder whether she bothered following up herself. As for the SDU intracacies and all that, I felt very strongly after the show came out that it had only skimmed over the surface, and that the case really deserved a much more thorough explanation, so I’ve started a podcast to work methodically through the evidence so that listeners can understand what might have happened to the plane — and what almost certainly didn’t. You should check it out, the show page is at deepdivemh370.com.
@Jeff- Awesome- I will definitely be tuning in- Thanks!