Two weeks ago, I wrote a couple of posts about the strange reboot of MH370’s satcom system that occurred shortly after the plane disappeared from primary radar, and asked if anyone could come up with a reasonable explanation. I drew attention in particular to the left AC bus, which the satcom equipment is connected to. This bus can be electrically isolated using controls located in the cockpit, and this appears to be the only way to recycle the satcom without leaving the flight deck. I suggested that there might be some other piece of equipment that the perpetrator wanted to turn off and on again by using the left AC bus, thereby causing the satcom to be recycled as an unintended side effect.
The readers rose to the occasion. Gysbreght pointed out that paragraph 1.11.2 of Factual Information states that “The SSCVR [Solid State Cockpit Voice Recorder] operates any time power is available on the Left AC transfer bus. This bus is not powered from batteries or the Ram Air Turbine (RAT).”
This is an incredibly interesting observation. Reader Oz fleshed out Gysbreght’s insight, writing to me via email:
We could isolate the Left Main AC by selecting the generator control switch to OFF and the Bus Tie switches to OFF; SATCOM is now dead. What else happens……….the Backup generator kicks in automatically to supply the Left Transfer bus. Here’s what’s so spine chilling; if you now simply reach up and select the Backup Generator switch to OFF………..you now lose Left transfer as well. The CVR is gone! I couldn’t believe how easy the CVR was to isolate!
To recap;
Left Gen Control to OFF
Bus Ties to OFF (Isolate)
Left Backup Gen to OFF.
I now firmly believe your mystery reboot was Left AC power being switched back ON……….. after something that had occurred that the perp or perps didn’t want any possible evidence of on the CVR……whatever was being hidden was done by around 1822; AC back to normal.
Gysbreght notes that the Factual Information also identifies the location of the CVR as Electronic Equipment Rack, E7, in the aft cabin above the ceiling, and suggests: “Later [the perp] could have opened Electronic Equipment Rack E7, physically pulled the SSCVR power supply plug from its socket, and then gone back to the MEC to restore power to the Left AC bus.”
Oz has his own theory: “If you are thinking why the hell you would turn Left AC/Left transfer back on? Flight deck temperature control comes from these…”
There’s a precedent for a suicidal airline pilot depowering the black boxes before flying a plane into the ocean: the pilot of Silkair Flight 185 appears to have done just that before pointing the nose down and crashing in December, 1997. It’s easy to imagine Zaharie reading the accident reports and realizing he should also figure out a way to disable the CVR before implementing his suicide plan. When the moment came, near IGARI, one can imagine the veteran 777 pilot suddenly flipping various switches while the baffled newbie, Fariq, looked on.
It’s certainly an intriguing scenario, but it is not without its flaws. As Gysbreght notes, “I would expect the Captain to know that the CVR only retains the last two hours and overwrites older recordings.” So if Zaharie planned to commit suicide by flying the plane for hours into the remotest reaches of the southern ocean, he wouldn’t have needed to turn the CVR off: the portion between 17:07 and 18:25 would have been erased anyway. This is not in insurmountable problem, however. Maybe he orginally intended to crash right away, a la Silkair, but then lost his nerve.
I’m not quite ready to declare, as Gysbreght has, “Case closed,” but I have to admit that the CVR idea is fascinating. Great work, Gysbreght and Oz!
@JS,
The mangosteens were loaded in the rear cargo hold.
OZ
@Jeff Thanks, I probably read that before and it was just floating around in my subconscious until now. I guess I question why if someone went to the trouble of disabling all the other communication systems, why would they not insure that the satcom was disabled in it’s entirety? Or would the hourly handshake be a detail that wasn’t well known? If it was terrorism or political why hasn’t there been a credible claim of responsibility?
“If it was terrorism or political why hasn’t there been a credible claim of responsibility?”
If someone do his best to disappear it´s logical that wie can not expect an claim of responsibility, right ?
LouVilla – agreed
@Lauren H,
Interesting to note from the factual information that 9M-MRO had 2 crew oxygen cylinders; crew oxygen at 36,000 ft cabin will last for 27 hours (1 perp) and 13 hours (2 perps).
Passenger oxygen 22 minutes total.
OZ
I’ve been trying to work out a motive that explains the dysfunction and opacity of search leaders (and their minions), as well as subsequent air disasters. Whatever this is, it is most likely geopolitical, and most likely big.
One of my “least bad” working hypotheses has been a generalization of Jeff’s: x firing shots across y’s bow to demonstrate capability.
But it is very hard to come up with an x and y that explain means, motive, AND opportunity. (I wonder about NK, but expect someone will now tell me how impossible it’d be for them to get it home.)
Anyway, today an open letter crossed my desk. Penned by the Future of Life Institute, it already boasts an impressive list of deep thinkers as signatories.
The message: stop self-directed weapons development now (for staggeringly obvious reasons).
But the statement which caught my eye – and the reason I’m bringing the letter to this forum (beyond a shameless attempt to get you all to sign it with me!) was this:
“autonomous weapons have been described as the third revolution in warfare, after gunpowder and nuclear arms.”
I’ve not yet even begun to sort out actual logistics, but sheesh, did my blood run cold when I read that phrase. I mean, if intel on board (in heads &/or laptops &/or cargo) was paradigm-shifting, well, there’s the first potential motive I’ve seen for MH370 (et al?) with serious LEGS.
http://futureoflife.org/AI/open_letter_autonomous_weapons
(Of course, it’s still quite possible the Pinckney shot it down, and I’m just adding to a helpful cacophony of distracting noise. I don’t care – I just want to ferret out the truth.)
Brock – yes, I think it will be down that weapons technology road somewhere.
I mentioned a while back that extending the search basically suspends/sustains the current narrative, that being: plane missing – search underway. And as it drags on, looking right? There is the occasional story but nothing meaty and time slips past. It might be gone without trace but we can’t move onto that square until the searchers all go home. And yes I’m aware that something might yet show up but no-one wants to bet the farm on that.
Lauren H/Oz,
If the PAX had a possible 22 minutes of oxygen then maybe they perished during the traversing with perps vs. pilots duking it out with pilot or pilots winning and re-enabling the AES but to no avail as they perish shortly thereafter? That was what I originally thought that, that was the last conscious act done and then all was lost, but that brings us back to the hypoxia theory once again. And we don’t know if that would be hypoxia w/o perps, hypoxia a la Helios, or forced depressurized hypoxia by pilots or perps, or none of the above.
What if there were 3 perps does that make it 6 hours of oxygen? In Jeff’s theory there are about 3 I think.
Oz, in your 3 step AES reconnect, is that all done from the cockpit seat, especially the last step of reaching up and switching the back-up generator switch to “off?”
@Cheryl,
All switching is on the same section of the cockpit overhead panel.
According to page 24 of the factual information; 3 perps = 9 hours.
OZ
There are many problems with geopolitical conspiracy theories, the main one being:
Why on earth would the perp, especially if Russia, select MH370? It’s a terrible choice. The plane is Malaysian and carries mainly Chinese passengers. The plan would have to be enourmesly complicated and could easily be exposed and backfire.
China is much too important a strategic partner for Russia and for Gazprom, the Kreml would never take that kind of gamble. Hence I discard any theories that include Russian involvement. And I cannot find any other technologically capable country or organisation where relevant interests line up. It’s just too far into la-la-land.
@Brock, &Matty
yeah, signed; some kind of climate change is in progress, in all meanings of this term; something of this case shocked me to madness, as if it is “carrier frequency” for messages; this is it
@OZ – I agree with your numbers. Perhaps the perps didn’t use the two, 3150 liter oxygen bottles and relied instead on one of the 15 portable oxygen bottles. Each of these had a volume of about 5% of the total 6300 liter crew oxygen. If the portable bottles were also charged to 1850 psi, and using the same flow given in Table 1.6C of the FI, they should last about 1h 21m (i.e. 5% of 27 hours). That’s about the same time period as last ACARS to reboot (17:06 to 18:25) or from diversion to the postulated FMT (17:21 to 18:40). I suppose there were other important events that were separated by this same approximate time period.
If this was a deliberate action, why didn’t he choose another flight which goes directly to Indian Ocean after take-off?
@OZ – I agree with your numbers. Perhaps the perps didn’t use the two, 3150 liter oxygen bottles and relied instead on one of the 15 portable oxygen bottles. Each of these had a volume of about 5% of the total 6300 liter crew oxygen. If the portable bottles were also charged to 1850 psi, and using the same flow given in Table 1.6C of the FI, they should last about 1h 21m (i.e. 5% of 27 hours). That’s about the same time period as last ACARS to reboot (17:06 to 18:25) or from last communication (“Good Night, Malaysian three seven zero”) to the postulated end of the FMT (17:19 to 18:40). I suppose there were other important events that were separated by this same approximate time period.
@Lauren
Frankly, I am skeptical of the hypoxia scenario. The medical literature on the subject is based on very broad averages. Many people, dozens, have climbed Everest (29,000+ feet) without supplemental oxygen. Some (Sherpas) over 10x. Your mileage may vary, of course. I have climbed to 20,000+ feet twice (Denali) without supplemental oxygen.
While most people would perish sitting in their seats at 30,000 feet without supplement oxygen, a percentage would not. Certainly a brief excursion to that altitude would allow a significant number of survivors.
@LouVilla, there’s nothing inherently wrong with discussing Zaharie as potential perp, but the thoughts some of the commenters are peddling on this German site you linked through Google Translate are hair raising nonsense. Zaharie’s last known course pointed to India – and if he had continued that way he would’ve flown over St. Michael’s church?? Or he believed to be an avatar in the Hindu way of thinking? Please…. I read the page in it’s original German language and even without Google Mangle distortion I couldn’t make any sense of DrMrHazard’s ideas. And please don’t tell us about incredible correlations. They’re not there. You are constructing them. With a little patience I might be able to show that Zaharie was really trying to fly a pentagram shaped course. I’m very good at pentagram drawing 😉
The mh370 case is a baffling conundrum and thinking outside the box is necessary wherever we come from. But we should draw the line somewhere…
Although, come to think of it you might be on to something… Yes, that’s it. Zaharie knew that in the mangosteen crates something terribly dangerous was hidden: a radioactive St. Michael’s Sword! That’s what he tried to tell us with his last heading! And then he turned South to fly this dangerous cargo to a place where it would never be found – let alone retrieved, thus saving human kind – for a while at least. How could we been have so blind!
Sorry, but I couldn’t resist 🙂
@Matty Brock
geopolitical view
from this aspect, why not think of india. hostile competitor to china, in need to catch up on weapons technology, while nuclear deterrent seems to become second choice nowadays
@Cosmic/Matty/Brock
You guys are “overthinking” this thing. It is very reasonable to assume it was the act of a single individual with a grudge i.e. Shah relative to the Malay political situation. Nothing else makes sense in hindsight, and hindsight is always 20/20.
CosmicAcademy: You seem to have a much higher opinion of India’s covert capabilities than knowledgeable people in India! They may have had some small successes in counter-terrorism but anything of this sort is beyond the capacity of the military and intelligence agencies. The only possible connection with India would be a possible short flight over Indian territory in the northern scenario, which may have involved some intelligent guesswork about radar coverage and alertness.
@DennisW
I think that probabilities do not support your suggestion. The chances that we have a nefarious act are overwhelming, while the mere perfection of the disappearance in itself indicates a professional execution of a planned act. Which would lead to the motif discussion … You are right that it is tremendously difficult to find a sound motif, but it sure is a rather big thing, and not a semi-private tear-dropping event
I expect the notes of Jay about suicides and think his work will lay that scenario to rest forever.
@Dennis W – I don’t disagree with your thoughts about a few people not succumbing to the effects of hypoxia at FL350 but I have a tough time picturing the pax & crew being conscious and just sitting and doing nothing for 6 hours while the plane continues to the middle of nowhere.
@Cosmic
Well, I have laid my theory out there for anyone and everyone to shoot at. If you have something beside prose to put out there, this would be an excellent time to do it.
Basically, you are saying you have no idea what happened, but you are sure it was something deep and nefarious.
@Lauren
I agree. That is why I do not think that is what happened.
@DennisW,
The many people “dozens” who climbed Mount Everest without supplemental oxygen were acclimatized; this usually takes around 40 days working through the various base camps.
Someone not acclimatized will lose consciousness within 2 to 3 minutes on Mount Everest.
At 35,000ft you have 30 to 60 seconds.
OZ
@OZ
No disagreement at my end relative to acclimatization. Losing consciousness and dying are two very different things. Being a paramedic (career path after retirement), I can assure you that I have seen a lot of people in respiratory distress. I have a much different opinion of what will kill someone, and what will cause impairment of mental awareness.
Your 2 to 3 minutes (and 30 to 60 seconds) assertions are from Wikipedia or similar. Most people can hold their breath for two minutes. Those numbers are totally bogus.
@CosmicAcademy
Yes, my piece on suicide will be coming out shortly. Apologize for the delay.
@Plastrio
1) he wanted to embarrass the government overflying the mainland undetected having intel from his military colleagues that radar operators are quite asleep at night, especially weekend night
and/or
2) he acted on a whim, there was Anwar Ibrahim trial the same day before the flight, it’s hardly a coincidence
@CosmicAcademy
“I think that probabilities do not support your suggestion. The chances that we have a nefarious act are overwhelming, while the mere perfection of the disappearance in itself indicates a professional execution of a planned act.”
any professional captain pilot could pull something like this with just a little luck, tell the F/O to get out, lock the door, turn off the tranponder, take the path along the border and voila you are free to go wherever you want in the IO
it doesn’t require any meticulous planning
@Lauren
” but I have a tough time picturing the pax & crew being conscious and just sitting and doing nothing for 6 hours while the plane continues to the middle of nowhere.”
well the problem actually is that they probably did something, if they sat calm (together with F/O) they would probably be alive now
@StevanG
+1
All – you would have to be living in a sensory deprivation vault in 2015 to put a line through geopolitics as being implicated in the loss of MH370. Every crackpot govt out there is trying to acquire WMD’s of one kind or another and we know that a lot of sensitive weapons technologies are being funneled through Malaysia off to various places including China and Iran and the broader ME which is at war and disintegrating daily.
@DennisW,
My totally bogus figures are from here;
http://www.semae.es/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/climbers-on-mt-everest-.pdf
and here
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Time_of_Useful_Consciousness
OZ
@Matty
Thanks for the post. I can now put you in the whacko category.
@DennisW,
Take a look at the term “time of useful consciousness”; Skybrary amongst others will show the times for various altitudes.
The New England Medical Journal of Medicine has an interesting article titled “Arterial Blood Gases and Oxygen Content in Climbers on Mount Everest”.
Maybe they get their figures from Wikipedia?
OZ
Dennis – we will see….maybe? But are we allowed to put something about Christmas Island on your tombstone? I haven’t bothered to mention it so far but CI is a stepping point for people smugglers in this part of the world, has been for years and is under constant surveillance.
@OZ
I am very familiar with TUC studies. TUC is far different than time to kill. Low SPO^2 is definitely very noticeable. Trust me on this, you are barking up the wrong tree.
@HMS Repulse,
Although Jeff’s Spoof Theory has it that the Kremlin gave the green light, I would think it’s more likely the work of a small, rogue cell within the intelligence services (if it went down this way at all). They tend to care very little about the fate of 239 souls, regardless of nationality. Exhibit A: MH17.
@Matty
My theory is out there along with the analytics. Go take a shot at it. If there is something wrong with it, I am sure the IG would have pointed it by now.
In the meantime, put your theory out there. Sorry, rhetorical request.
Geez Dennis, I was assuming you didn’t need to hear from a wacko?
Seriously, anything that gets anywhere near CI normally gets intercepted and especially since Abbott got in. I interpret this as surveillance and the assets are there.
The PAX may not even have realized they were traversing Malaysia, remember Airshow or moving map is off as the IFE depends on a satcom link and the AES is disabled at that point. They may not have felt the IGARI turn either. They may have succumbed to hypoxia still believing they were en route to Beijing for all we know or some of them succumbed. Whether or not the remaining came to the aid of a locked out FO and he informed them of the situation is debatable. First of all don’t we know that on a B777 one can get back in the cockpit via a breaker in the EE bay, shades of Air New Zealand? And we don’t know if there were armed perps to contend with either. Maybe there was no hypoxia and the PAX knew of the traversing being told they were being taken somewhere and cell phones collected or blocked or not in line with any towers. The two PAX I am aware of that would have had some athletic ability was the one Russian man diver and I think there was a movie stunt man on the flight as well, I am sure there could have been others.
One thing I question is what happened in those 7 minutes or so in the cockpit between the two “maintaining FL350” lines. Did someone leave the cockpit then? And why can’t they get the flight number straight, ok it’s a red-eye to Beijing but a meticulous guy like Zaharie constantly slurring over it doesn’t sit right with me still. And what happened in those 90 seconds (17:19 to 17:21), the ones in which Nik Huzlan said the “diabolical act” occurred?
Strange the only woman in Zaharie’s life we have heard something from is Zaharie’s sister on the Air Asia Channel. Something Lucy suggested way back is that someone needs to interview Ms. Pardi and Mrs. Shah as well, who better to know what his mental state was.
I’ll await Jay’s piece and see if we get any more insight into psychological behaviors.
@DennisW,
At the altitudes we are talking time of useful consciousness gets very close to time to death.
At 25,000ft oxygen saturation is 55%.
At 30,000ft its about 12%.
At 35,000ft its around 3%.
You cannot survive at 3%.
OZ
“but I have a tough time picturing the pax & crew being conscious and just sitting and doing nothing for 6 hours while the plane continues to the middle of nowhere.” – Lauren H
How do you know they did nothing? Since fortification post 9/11, unauthorised entry has been unheard of as far as I can recall. You can bang a galley cart/fire extinguisher/crash axe/portable 02 cylinder into that door (and the pax may have done so) for 6 hours and still have ended up in the drink without gaining entry. We have no detail what any PAX may or may not have done. I think you need to take this other scenario into your thoughts as well.
“Most people can hold their breath for two minutes. Those numbers are totally bogus.” – Dennis W
At sea level pressure and temperature, yes. At reduced pressure not so. And that is why de-pressurisation at altitude is dangerous. And also why above 40K Ft altitude, pressure fed respiration is required. Lungs do not function at low pressures. As for how long one could last without enough partial pressure of o2 to support consciousness, well?? Lots of factors at play there. An individual’s metabolism at the time for one. I do not think there is a clear cut answer on that as there are too many individual variables. There is however, a baseline guidance value.
Free divers (that have plenty of practice/acclimatisation) hold their breath far longer than two minutes. A big problem they face is shallow water blackout, where as under pressure the oxygen is consumed, then when pressures decrease on return, they black out as all the O2 has been consumed beyond that to support consciousness. If I recall correctly, one of the biggest dangers to Everest climbers is the near or even fatal condition of cerebal haemorrhage brought on by the reduced pressure on the blood vessels and lack of o2. Getting OT.
“well the problem actually is that they probably did something, if they sat calm (together with F/O) they would probably be alive now” – StevanG
See above reply to Lauren H. Well the problem, actually, is that we can not say they probably did or probably didn’t. We certainly can’t claim your view of probability of what would have happened if they sat calm.
“The PAX may not even have realized they were traversing Malaysia, remember Airshow or moving map is off as the IFE depends on a satcom link and the AES is disabled at that point.” – Cheryl.
Why do you need Airshow or MM? Last flight I did across this continent, my tablet was more than capable of showing me where I was in real time on my own moving map. This allowed me to concentrate on the movie (tab or IFE) and also to log said track, there and back. And I have 9000+ Km’s of accurate lat/lon track with time, altitude, speed attributes all attached. You do not need IFE to navigate. A more probable case would be to state that being a red eye, they were asleep or snoozing. Had I been on that flight, whilst snoozing, my tab would have been running. It had gone off course, then I guess I would have been searching for galley cart/fire extinguisher/crash axe/portable 02 cylinder.
“One thing I question is what happened in those 7 minutes or so in the cockpit between the two “maintaining FL350″ lines. Did someone leave the cockpit then? And why can’t they get the flight number straight, ok it’s a red-eye to Beijing but a meticulous guy like Zaharie constantly slurring over it doesn’t sit right with me still.” – Cheryl
Somewhere on the interwebs is an ATC recording from an actual de-pressurisation flight that if I recall correctly had a positive outcome. You should try to find it and listen to it. The slurring and mental confusion of that pilot is powerful evidence of the horror of hypoxia. Z is human after all and could suffer the affliction like the rest of us. Had hypoxia started to take a hold that early in the flight?
@Dennis, while it seems to get whackier and whackier here every day, Matty doesn’t fit into the loony corner. I don’t think he wanted to suggest that India abducted the plane in order to acquire a super weapon (maybe St.Michael’s sword 😉 ) He simply pointed out that the acquisition of military technology is a great incentive for many countries – not just the superpowers.
It’s perfectly possible that this was the so far elusive motive for abducting the plane. We can’t know as long as we’re in the dark about the cargo’s real content. I’m not inclined to believe that MAS’s cargo protocol is nothing but the truth.
@Littlefoot
Yes, I have been following Matty’s posts for some time, and he is not in the spaced out category to be sure. I regret the comment.
However, it is implausible that anyone or anything on the plane was the target of a hijacking. First, it would require prior knowledge that the ISAT data would be used in the manner it was used. A huge stretch IMO. Secondly, cargo or any PAX could be much more easily snatched on the ground. The plane itself can be purchased on-line from any number of third party aircraft brokers.
Some posters elsewhere have hinted that the disappearance of MH370 would cloak the fact the something of value on the plane was taken, and the owner would assume it was simply lost. Really?? The apparent disinterest of the US or any other superpower in the whereabouts of the aircraft speaks volumes against a military technology motive. One would expect a significant engagement by interested parties.
I cannot invent (nor have I heard of) any even remotely plausible reason for a hijacking.
That leaves us with:
1> A suicide motive – possible, but Shah’s and Hamid’s profile do not seem to fit that conclusion.
2> Mechanical failure or cargo problems (i.e. Li battery fire)_ – also possible, but it would require a very complex chain of events for the plane to end up in the SIO.
3> Political motive – possible, and the events prior to the flight support it.
@ Cheryl
“And why can’t they get the flight number straight, ok it’s a red-eye to Beijing but a meticulous guy like Zaharie constantly slurring over it doesn’t sit right with me still.”
Could it be the pilots who spoke the words were neither Shah nor Hamid?
Perhaps the plane was taken before it even took off?
@Sharkcaver
“See above reply to Lauren H. Well the problem, actually, is that we can not say they probably did or probably didn’t. We certainly can’t claim your view of probability of what would have happened if they sat calm.”
I strongly believe the Captain didn’t have intention to kill anyone. Yes I can’t be 100% sure but it’s clear for me it holds much more probability than the opposite.
Interesting analysis of the debris found at Reunion this morning.
https://twitter.com/Lustucrew/status/626388619926835200
plus other tweets by the same author. I guess the item will be on tonight’s flight to Paris for BEA to get their hands on.
@Richard
Wow! That looks compelling. Thx.
Is the debris from MH370? On Nov. 23, 1996 Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961, a B-767, crashed in the Comoros Islands to the northwest of Madagascar. Reunion Island, where the above debris was found, is due east of Madagascar about 2,000 nm northwest of the current search area.
A photo from a different angle or perhaps a different part can be seen here:
http://www.breakingnews.com/item/2015/07/29/photo-police-in-reunion-island-examine-debris-fro/
One of the articles says the part has a serial number which should be traceable to the particular aircraft by Boeing.
The speculation is that it is the starboard flaperon from a B777.
IF this turns out to be MH370, and IF drift analysis shows it couldn’t have come from the SIO search area, Inmarsat and the Malaysian government are going to have a lot of explaining to do. What about those arcs?
@Lauren
“Reunion Island, where the above debris was found, is due east of Madagascar about 2,000 nm northwest of the current search area.”
Yes, it is not in a direction that surface current or wind action would take from the SIO search area. I offer the link below (shameless self-promotion on my part) for your consideration.
http://mh370corner.blogspot.com