Jeff Wise

Once Australian government scientists had generated the probability distribution for the plane’s last known location on the 7th arc, the next question they had to answer was: how far did the plane travel from that point before it impacted the water?

As we discussed earlier, their goal was to define a search box within which the plane was likely to be found. The plane’s location along the 7th arc defined the length of the rectangle, and the distance it could have traveled from the 7th arc would define the width of the search box.

So the question of how far the plane could have flown after the last transmission depends on what the investigators thought was going on with the plane at that moment. You’ll recall that the plane took off at 16:42 heading from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to Beijing, China.. A flight that normally takes 5 1/2 hours but it was carrying enough fuel to keep it flying until around 00:12, in case it needed to divert somewhere else and needed extra fuel.

Continue reading Deep Dive: MH370 Episode 12: Descent

Today’s episode is something of a double-header, as we address two different but related topics: the scientific method, and how Andy and Jeff’s efforts fit into it. In the first half of the show, Andy and Jeff talk about their personal histories, and how their experiences prepared them for tackling the mystery of MH370. 

In the second half, Jeff describes how working on this mystery has shaped his understanding of the scientific method, and in particular how scientist deal with uncertainties in data and in their knowledge of initial conditions. Understanding so-called Bayesian methods is crucial, because it’s the approach that search officials used in defining the the search area on the seabed of the southern Indian Ocean.

Continue reading Deep Dive MH370: Episode 11: Routes

Today we tackle our most controversial topic date: the question of whether a backdoor exist in MH370’s satcom system that would have allowed the BFO data to be tampered with. If so, it will have radical implications for what might have happened to the plane.

Back in Episode 7 we explained how the BFO data worked and how it showed conclusively that the plane must have gone south. But then some strange facts started to appear that, taken together, suggested that all might not be as it seemed.

The first was that, as we’ve discussed earlier, the Satellite Data Unit had been turned off and back on again. Officials didn’t let that slip until June 26. Up until that time, we’d all assumed that the satcom had inadvertantly been left on when everything else was turned off. The fact that it was turned on was really hard to explain. In fact to this day, people have had a hard time coming up with a convincing reason why anyone would either know how to do this or want to do this. I hasten to add that is a hugely contentious point. Some people say they have perfectly good explanations, but they all seem pretty daft to me. For instance, Victor Iannello thinks it was done in order to prevent someone in the cabin from using the satphone to call for help, but there are simpler ways to turn off the satphone.

Continue reading Deep Dive: MH370 Episode 10: The Vulnerability

Within weeks after the disappearance of MH370, many theories had been proposed, but one in particular had come to the fore: that one of the pilots had seized control of the plane and flown it on a prolonged and sophisticated murder-suicide mission into the southern Indian Ocean. While there have been a handful of known cases where pilots have flown their own plane into the ground, no one had ever before carried out a sophisticated, complicated, and aggressive plan to abscond with an airplane only to spend seven hours patiently waiting to die. But there seemed no other way to easily explain the sequence of events that emerged from the Inmarsat data. What would such a person be like, psychologically? What kind of traces would they leave behind in their social media, in their personal photographs and work records, and in the memories of those who knew them? In today’s episode we turn our attention to Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and First Officer Fariq Abdul Hamid and take stock of the evidence. 

Continue reading Deep Dive: MH370 Episode 9: The Pilot

From the first day MH370 went missing, it was the subject of an intense surface search. Planes, ships and satellites scoured millions of square kilometers of ocean. Not a single piece was ever spotted. In today’s episode we talk about how it went down, and what we might conclude from it. We also touch on a strange coda to the search, that involved an attempt to find the plane by listening for audible pings from the plane’s black boxes.

As we’ve previously discussed, at first everyone thought that the plane had crashed in the South China sea, under its original route to Beijing. At first this was a Search and Rescue mission, as authorities hoped that the plane might have ditched à la Miracle in the Hudson and some survivors could be rescued. But as time went by hope quickly faded.

Continue reading Deep Dive: MH370 Episode 8: Surface Search

On March 24, 2014, the Malaysian Prime minister made a shocking announcement: using a new kind of mathematical analysis, scientists at the British satellite communications company Inmarsat had determined conclusively that MH370 had flown into a remote area of the southern Indian Ocean. Because there are no islands in the area, there was no possibility that anyone on the plane could have survived. Therefore, all 239 passengers and crew must be dead. It was a stunningly sweeping conclusion to reach based entirely on a kind of mathematics that no one in the outside world knew the details of. But was it correct?

Up until that time it had seemed to me that the plane more likely went north. It seemed implausible that someone sophisticated and motivated enough to steal a plane so aggressively would do it just to die a protracted death. In fact I’d written twoarticles for Slate making that case. At the time, most people already thought the plane probably went south, so my editor had only let me write the articles after I’d promised that I would write an apology article if I turned out to be wrong. I thought it was worth it, so I said yes.

Continue reading Deep Dive: MH370 Episode 7: Frequency