If it’s not found, much of the story we’ve been told will turn out to be false.
This article originally ran in New York magazine on February 26, 2025.
The third search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has begun, 11 years after the plane practically vanished. On Sunday, a ship belonging to the American maritime-survey company Ocean Infinity arrived at a remote stretch of the Indian Ocean where the plane is believed to have crashed. It then deployed a trio of advanced robot subs three miles under the waves to scan the seabed using sonar waves. If successful, the effort will locate the wreckage of the aircraft together with the black boxes that will allow investigators to solve the mystery. If not, it will effectively disprove the analysis underlying the seabed search and suggest that officials bungled some fundamental assumptions.
The first underwater search for the missing plane was launched more than a decade ago, months after MH370 disappeared from air-traffic controllers’ screens on March 8, 2014, during a routine red-eye flight from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, China. Scientists at the satellite-communications company Inmarsat later found that the plane had sent seven automatic radio signals before vanishing for good. In analyzing the data, scientists were able to extract a route from Malaysia into the southern Indian Ocean and concluded that the plane’s wreckage must lie near the end point of this path. Australia, which was responsible for finding the plane due to the search-and-rescue zone, hired a Dutch marine-survey company, Fugro, which dispatched a trio of ships to drag underwater sensors over the seabed. At first, officials were highly confident that they would locate the plane in short order, with one boasting that they had a 97 percent chance of success. But the plane was not in the search area measuring 46,000 square miles. Fugro increased the size of the search zone, then increased it again, without success. In 2017, the search was abandoned.
Hopes for finding the plane on the seabed would have ended there had not Ocean Infinity stepped forward the following year and offered to restart the search on its own dime, with payment only forthcoming if it was successful in finding MH370. Ocean Infinity used newer technology: autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) that could prowl the depths in packs. Deployed from a single ship, the AUVs scanned an area nearly as big as the first search in a fraction of the time. But this effort, too, was in vain, and Ocean Infinity’s second search was called off in May 2018.
In the years since its first search, Ocean Infinity has earned a name for itself as a highly capable underwater-survey company, not least by locating the wreck of a missing Argentine submarine in 2018. Since 2022, Ocean Infinity has launched a fleet of eight state-of-the-art, 250-foot-long ships that are capable of operating autonomously. It is one of these, Armada 78 06, that is currently on station in the search area, tending a flotilla of AUVs.
After the second search, there was no reason to continue looking. Any reasonable scenario involving the plane’s direction, speed, or changes in heading would have resulted in an end point in the ocean that had already been scanned. Malaysia, which retained overall responsibility for the investigation, announced that it would not authorize any further searches unless “new and credible information” emerged indicating where exactly the plane had ended up.
No such information was forthcoming, but over the years various independent researchers continued to study the mystery, with some speculating that various lines of evidence all indicated a final resting place close to 35 degrees south latitude. The area had already been searched twice, but the ocean floor is rugged enough that the wreckage just might have been missed by earlier searches because it had fallen behind an outcropping or into a ravine. (Alternatively, if someone had hijacked the plane, they might have put it into an extended glide that took it beyond the area scanned so far.) It’s this area that Ocean Infinity has now begun to search, less than a tenth of the size of previous searches. If the wreckage is there, the AUVs will likely find it quickly.
Given the scope of the search, it’s entirely possible that the seabed scan will be finished before the 11th anniversary of MH370’s disappearance in two weeks. If the wreckage is found, Armada 78 06 will likely deploy a different kind of robot sub called an ROV (remotely operated vehicle) to retrieve the black boxes, including a flight-data recorder that will show exactly how the plane flew into the southern ocean and a cockpit voice recorder that may contain clues about what happened to the pilots.
If the wreckage is not found, the picture will be altogether different. The plane’s absence will strongly suggest that the authorities must have made a fundamental error when they analyzed the Inmarsat data. It will no longer be possible to say that they were just unlucky, that they happened to draw a line around a part of the probability distribution that didn’t include the plane. By this point, every point in the ocean where the plane could plausibly have gone will have been searched. One or more of their assumptions must have been wrong.
There could be a positive outcome to the failure of the third and final seabed search: a long-overdue realization that investigators have been sleepwalking down a dead-end path. This, hopefully, will spur those responsible for finding the plane to acknowledge the failure of the past approach and bring in fresh blood. The case is too important to let go with a shrug and a wave of the hand. Eleven years ago, 239 people disappeared into the night. Until we make every effort to figure out what happened — including taking the painful step of admitting that all our past efforts were misguided — then we’ll never solve the case, and there will be no way to say for sure that the same won’t happen again.
Hi Jeff, that’s a great article. I am an admirer of your work on MH370 and my own research and theory has some important aspects in common with your own, as outlined in your ‘The Taking of MH370’.
I am not an aviation expert but am an independent journalist in Australia and have had several articles published on MH370/MH17. If you have time, please read my most recent one. It was published in The Spectator Australia behind a paywall but the full article is on my blog:
https://pettblog.com/2025/01/15/mh370-at-the-communist-crossroads/
Regards,
Craig
@Jeff Wise
Agreed- If the plane isn’t found following this new search it should provide conclusive evidence that the flight did not terminate near the 7th arc. It should also raise the question of an intentional purpose to mislead the investigation by falsifying the Inmarsat data that the search hinged on. A lot of questions will be answered, including the seemingly never ending promotion of Godfrey and WSPR being credible in the search. It will be very interesting if they come up empty again.
Yes, one of the reasons I do hope that the search continues (that being up in the air as I type these words) is that the more the area is searched, the stronger the evidence that the plane didn’t go south.
Thanks, Craig. Really nice article. Let me know if I can help out going forward.
Pett is right.
We need to talk – badly. All about tube snails, and control surfaces in all the wrong configurations. (flaps @ 5 ?)
Bet you didn’t chase down the Bansi and Eunice angles, did you?
Nor Gaddifushi either. Then there is the conundrum about the coincidental (and very suspicious) failure of the CTBTO HA 08 N…
How about the tree-top terror episode in the Emirates?
All connected…
I won’t exchange over the net any longer, so this will have to be via landline. (360) 830-0457
Regards:
W.A. (Bill) Harrington, a retired radar engineer, and long time researcher into the loss of the *only* RC-135E to ever fly. Talk about a big mystery!
Could the plane sink into parts underneath the ocean? It will not float because of cargo. It can explode twice again with the batteries. Litathium explain also cause the melt of objects. I think titan and titanic.
If wings flew off the plane during a fire exhibition , it could dip plane downward while everyone on the plane sleep. They didn’t have enough time to react. Cellphone can ring and go to voice mail as long as their Stateline and wifi on plane. People have to look at before take off checklist. Everything check normal.
Since Malaysia airport not strict intheir policies and their protests their reputation as well as captain, they rule out theories. It government conspiracy like that Japanese air crash into the mountains.
A person who perfect normal and such may not seem crazy. That’s the problem he too happy and has martial problems. A such obsession over women can play part of mental health.
Good day Jeff. I’m not mad or insane.
Why isn’t anyone checking the sea around Reunion island and Mauritius for MH 370. After reporter’s interviewed a person on Reunion beach who saw a plane very low over the sea( he has no need to lie or make it up), same with the fishermen who saw the same thing south of Mauritius. I don’t believe in all these whispers and satellite reasons because they couldn’t trace the plane from Malaysian airspace so how would they know where it is ( they guessing). I believe the plane is around Reunion island area. ( That’s why they finding pieces of the plane on the east of Africa ) its not rocket science.
Jeff, as you still probably remember I was convinced of a planned and deliberate vanishing of the plane from the start till it’s very end quite soon. So I didn’t accept the uncontrolled high-speed dive near the 7th arc on which the previous searches were based. Direct (by the found debris) and indirect by the negative search results and the gathered data sofar, prove to me the plane recovered from a steep descent and glided under pilot controle to it’s (calcuated) final destination at somewhere around 32.5S/96.5E.
You know I’ve been in this for almost the same lenght as you and did considerable research. Any new search not allowing a possible glide of ~60Nm to the east of the 7th arc between ~32S/33S is deamed to fail I’m sure. Keep going Jeff 🙂
Thanks Ge Rijn! Yes we’ve been at it a long time. It’s possible that they’ll search out to 60nm if they continue the current seabed search but I think 32/33 South might be a bit further north than they’ll go.
Greetings, Jeff!
You might remember that I have been posting on your blog during the early years after 2014. When I first commented, I pointed out that anomalies in the message log published in the Factual Information report indicated that at least one VHF message was missing. Malaysia has since confirmed that this was indeed the case.
I’m still thinking about what really happened. Given certain geopolitical developments, I now believe you might be right that Russia could have been involved in the hijacking of MH370. I also continue to find it strange that, at one point, it was claimed the plane was over Cambodia — even though it was supposed to be flying along the coast of Vietnam. That confusion between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control over who was responsible for further action gave the perpetrators valuable time.
On the other hand, while I do think your theory that Russia wanted to distract from its annexation of Crimea at the time, in hindsight has merit, I’m not convinced that this alone is a plausible motive. Have you considered whether China might also have had an interest in the plane’s disappearance? After all, why would China side with Russia, especially considering that many Chinese nationals were on board? To be sure, these included Uyghurs and employees of a US-based company (but I’m not saying they were the reason for this operation). China was therefore directly involved in both the accident investigation and search efforts, alongside Malaysia and Australia. And how can Russian interference alone explain Malaysia’ third aircraft loss (AirAsia 8501).
In Europe, we’ve recently seen similar patterns. For example, there was one incident involving the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3, which sabotaged data cables in the Baltic Sea — possibly on behalf of Russia. There have also been a few recent aircraft incidents that show clear signs of Russian involvement.
Hello Jeff, we’ll see. One thing you say is quite right. When they don’t find the plane this time we’ll be sure it’s not there (negative evidence).
If they skipp the 32/33S area till ~60nm east of the 7th arc it will not be found for sure (imo). It might just as well has ended in Russia or anywhere else in it’s global range.
Hey Nederland, great to hear from you again. Regarding China’s involvement, I can’t speak to that for certain, all the evidence really seems to indicate is that if the plane didn’t go into the ocean, it might be because someone spoofed the BFO data and took it north. While Russia would be the obvious suspect — especially given the other kinds of “gray zone” warfare activities that you cite — it wouldn’t specifically rule out China.
Jeff and Ge Rijn,
I believe motivation is key to understanding the mystery of MH370. I’d like to outline a refined scenario that incorporates both Russian and Chinese geopolitical interests—one that, in my view, avoids the usual dead ends.
a) Chinese strategic interests in the South China Sea
While Russia was deploying its “little green men” to Crimea, China was busy constructing artificial islands off the Malaysian coast to assert dominance over the South China Sea. It is reasonable to assume that Moscow and Beijing had agreed in advance on mutual support (just today, for example, two Chinese soldiers were reportedly captured in Ukraine).
In April 2014, Obama was scheduled to visit Kuala Lumpur—the first visit by a U.S. president since the 1960s. The purpose of the visit was to build a coalition that included Malaysia and the longstanding U.S. ally, the Philippines, and to promote a rules-based order in the South China Sea (i.e., tell China to back off).
Three Malaysian aircraft losses later, Prime Minister Najib began moving away from those plans and seeking ties with China. His party, undefeated since independence, lost power in 2018, with his designated successor, Hishammuddin, also ousted. Najib’s successors, Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim, have always taken a pro-China stance and again distanced Malaysia from the United States. Notably, Anwar was sentenced to prison on the very day MH370 was hijacked (this made him a martyr).
b) Intelligence-gathering
From day one, China demanded access to all information related to the search, including satellite data from the Five Eyes and the EU, as part of the multinational SAR operation and because most passengers were Chinese. This request allowed China to access intelligence it would normally be barred from.
If we assume intelligence sharing between China and Russia (similar to that between the U.S. and Ukraine), the operation could have provided valuable insight into the surveillance capabilities of Western satellites in the Asia-Pacific region. This is important for Russia, which needs to obscure large-scale weapons movements, and could be important too for China in future.
The Cope Tiger military exercise in Thailand may explain MH370’s route across the Strait of Malacca, and the aircraft’s track created embarrassment for the Malaysia–Australia Butterworth airbase. China also became a full member of the search effort, alongside Malaysia and later Australia. It was permitted to deploy search aircraft into restricted zones.
China’s vessel, the Dong Hai Jiu 101, only spent about 17 days of its 10-month mission actively searching for the wreckage. The rest of the time, it appeared to be collecting intelligence. Australia later denied a Freedom of Information request related to a document detailing the Dong’s suspected espionage activities. Notably, the vessel operated for long periods near Perth, right beside the newly established AUKUS nuclear submarine base, and carried an AUV on board.
c) False-flag terrorism as pretext for repression
MH370 also served as a convenient pretext for China to escalate its domestic “counter-terrorism” agenda. Just days before the disappearance, a major knife attack linked to Uyghur separatists occurred. Shortly after MH370 vanished, a shadowy group calling itself the “Chinese Martyrs’ Brigade” issued a dubious (and likely fabricated) claim of responsibility.
Several Uyghurs were aboard the flight. Within a year, China began interning large numbers of Uyghurs in so-called re-education camps. The disappearance of MH370 may have helped justify and accelerate the repression of this minority.
Nederland, thanks for this. You know, when MH370 first disappeared and we learned about the BTO data, but very little else, my first idea was that the Uyghurs were the most likely cultprit because one of the end points was said to be in Central Asia, and there had just been a terroristic knife attack. Once we got a better look at the Inmarsat data it didn’t align that well with Xinjiang, though.
That said, there could be some truth in some of your ideas. The hard part is figuring out how to verify them.
Probably no theory can be verified unless the remains of the a/c are found or a whistleblower comes forward. Otherwise, we only have circumstantial evidence. There have been lots of hybrid warfare attacks in Europe in the last few years, but without any convictions, claims of responsibility, or leaked information. But the usual suspect is Russia (sometimes, perhaps, with support from China).
The above is essentially open-source knowledge, anyone can google the facts, but there is no direct evidence that this was part of some masterplan. To be sure, the other factor contributing to the end of the Najib/Hishammuddin govt was the 1MDB scandal, but here again I suspect Chinese involvement. The person behind the 1MDB scandal (from 2015 onwards) is a super-wealthy ethnic Chinese Malaysian businessman (Low), who has since found asylum in China, protecting him from international criminal prosecution.
Here are some lesser-known details: China has requested data from Malaysia pertaining to third countries 2014-03-18, specifically satellite data covering the “northern corridor”, 2014-03-19 and asked to anchor search vessels in Australia (Perth): 2014-03-21 (note the constant connection to the situation in the Crimea over the course of these “press conferences”)
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The Aviation Herald has some good shots of shared satellite images; note the quality of the Chinese image (Photo: SASTIND): avherald
Australia requested satellite data from the US, the EU etc, then apparently shared these with China (ATSB, Operational Search, Final, 2017, p. 1 and 116-17)
An eerie thread appeared on Chinese social media two weeks before the AirAsia crash, specifically warning Chinese nationals about an “international bully”. tianya (can be auto-translated). The crash occurred just a few days after Obama and Najib (whose step-grandmother had been on board MH17) played golf together in Hawaii on Christmas Eve, where they discussed mutual interests between their two countries.
MH370 had a code-sharing with China Southern Airlines, and some of the passengers using China Southern have been of interest: “In a terse statement, the carrier said it ticketed one Chinese, two Ukrainians, an Austrian, an Italian, one Dutch person and a Malaysian for the flight.” (WSJ, 8 March 2014) The Austrian and Italian were actually the two Iranians with stolen passports. There was one Chinese on board whose identity remains unclear to this day: xinhuanet
A Chinese person phoned Taiwan to warn of an imminent terror attack to do with aviation, China and Beijing airport (China Southern aka MH370 en route to Beijing?) a few days before MH370 disappeared. SCMP
One in four Malaysians is ethnically Chinese. Within Malaysia Airlines (MAS), many employees were reportedly supportive of Anwar Ibrahim’s People’s Justice Party, rather than Najib’s majority-Malay, Muslim-dominated UMNO nationalist party. This political divide may help explain the initial release of misleading information about the missing plane. Furthermore, orchestrating a sophisticated hijacking would require insider knowledge—something that could plausibly be accessed if China had informants or sympathizers among the staff of Malaysia’s largest state airline (it is reasonable to assume that it does).
China is using similar hybrid warfare tactics to bully Taiwan into submission: regionalsecurity
It would be strategically logical for China to first assert dominance over other parts of the South China Sea before making a move on Taiwan. As for Russia, I find it unlikely that they would hijack an aircraft en route to Beijing, with numerous Chinese citizens on board, at a time when they were heavily reliant on China as an ally. Unless, of course, there was some form of shared interest or common ground between them.
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Thanks for this, I don’t recall hearing that China said, “Up to now, there has been no sign showing that the Malaysian airplane could have flown over Chinese territory or airspace. We will confirm the final result as soon as we finish analyzing all the data.” Did they ever confirm that conclusion?
Florence de Changy has said that of all the passengers on the flight, it is only the Ukrainians for whom the ticketing is unknown. That would contradict what the WSJ apparently reported on March 8. I wonder who’s right.
I’m quite sure they didn’t. They basically asked for all radar data from countries between Malaysia and Russia and for satellite data from everyone who has surveillance satellites (Oh, and btw don’t bother monitoring the Crimea, you have to assist us in the search and rescue operation). And once Najib had announced that the a/c had apparently gone south no one bothered to confirm any results and China was instead looking to get permission from Australia to deploy “search” vessels in critical areas.
I think the WSJ is right because they quote China Southern directly. Florence de Changy has access to the leaked Malaysian police report on the passengers, but the Malaysian police may not have received all relevant information from China Southern—only from Malaysia Airlines. It’s known that “Mr. Ali” purchased the tickets for the two Iranians in Thailand using cash, but that information appears to come from Interpol’s investigation into the two men.
what is your ‘take’ on the chinese vessel’ what is it doing ?
from my ‘little research’ victor iannell says richard godfrey is false and that his WSPR is not possible. whilst richard has done videos explain WSPR how it works i have not found anything from victor saying/show WHY it is false and wiil not work
I provided a link in episode 34 to an excellent video explaining why Godfrey’s WSPR claims don’t hold water. You can find it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Uilt0meJcY
Hello Dave, I suspect the Chinese search vessels gathered intelligence on AUKUS submarines, including data on their movements. First, the Haixun (the Chinese vessel involved in the hunt for flight recorder signals on the 7th arc) reported detecting such a signal, but it proved to be of no use. Meanwhile, a submarine was in the vicinity.
“The crew were operating the hydrophone from one of the ship’s rescue boats in an area where ocean depths were approximately 4,500 m … the hydrophone equipment being used by the crew of Haixun 01 … had a practical detection range of about 2,000 m according to the manufacturer. A submarine was also tasked to investigate the area” (TSB, Operational Search, Final, 2017, p. 36-39)
The second Chinese vessel, the Dong (the one that was tasked with scanning the seabed for wreckage), apparently used the same technique in order to track submarine movements. The Dong frequently navigated outside of its assigned search area.
“The Australian newspaper published interviews with several security experts who expressed the opinion that the Dong Hai Jiu 101 may be collecting intelligence on Australia for the Chinese government. The alleged intelligence collection … probably involves hydrophonic instrumentation to track submarine movements, said the experts.” intelnews
The Dong also spent considerable time anchored in Perth with an AUV on board, near Garden Island, which houses docks for nuclear submarines. Even Australian citizens are not allowed access to the area.
So, perhaps this could be part of a greater plan to assert martime control in the Indo-Pacific area.
Also, perhaps one detail in the AirAsia 8501 crash has often been overlooked? (KNKT Indonesia, PK-AXC final report, pp. 21, 25, 28): An engineer at Surabaya Airport (Indonesia) replaced the critical component — Flight Augmentation Computer 2 (FAC 2) — with one taken from an aircraft undergoing maintenance, and advised the pilot to reset / pull the circuit breakers if the issue reoccurred as he did as well. After returning from Kuala Lumpur to Surabaya, this component was again replaced with another unit that had meanwhile been sent from Jakarta. The original problem reoccurred in-flight and the pilot reset the FAC 2, triggering a chain of events.
Of course, we can not know whether or not the FAC 2 was faulty (the report doesn’t say anything about this). But perhaps this reflects a broader pattern, shared with MH370, of resetting/pulling the circuits on electrical components and potentially to manipulate a crucial component (If so, this could lend support to the northern route theory).