To watch Deep Dive MH370 on YouTube, click the image above. To listen to the audio version on Apple Music, Spotify, or Amazon Music, click here.
For a concise, easy-to-read overview of the material in this podcast I recommend my 2019 book The Taking of MH370, available on Amazon.
We’ve been making this weekly podcast for eight months now, and it feels like we could literally go on forever. But having come this far, we’ve come to feel that the most productive way forward will be to take a pause, collect our breath, and consider how best to press forward. So we’ve decided to use this episode to mark an end of Season One. We’re going to rest and regroup for a spell before coming back with a freshly conceived Season Two.
[A practical note: while we’re on hiatus, I’m going to pause paid subscriptions, so that people on monthly plans won’t get charged until we return, and people with yearly plans will have their subscription period extended.]
At heart, our core motivating belief is that this is a profoundly important case and we want to do everything in our power to help the public understand it. So today we’re going to talk about six major advancements that we think we’ve made towards that goal over the last 30 episodes.
Before I do that, though, a quick sidenote: Over the past week, I was delighted to be invited onto “avgeek” podcast Next Trip Network. Hosts Doug and Drew invited me on to talk about both MH370 and the latest crisis at Boeing so I encourage anyone interested in these topics to check that out.
And now, onward to the six big things from Season 1:
1. The Deep Dive Approach
We started Episode 1 by outlining what we thought was correct way to try to solve the mystery of MH370: by engaging holistically with the full range of evidence and examining every aspect of it as deeply as necessary. We contrasted this approach with the way that the story had been dealt with by the media over the past decade, which had been grounded in shallow understanding of the topic and fragmentary analysis of the evidence. This led to a broad swathe of the public adopting what had come to be seen as the common-sense theory, that the flight’s captain, Zaharie Ahmed Shah, had hijacked his own plane to commit mass-murder suicide. This theory, though seemingly simple and parsimonious, actually suffers from some grave weaknesses.
The too-quick adoption of a faulty theory relates to the “local minima” problem in machine learning. If we think of solving a problem as similar to a ball rolling down a mountain, it won’t reach is optimal endpoint — a complete explanation — if it gets caught in a little valley halfway down. The problem is that human nature leads us to cling to a theory that seems reasonably good and resist any further information that might lead us to doubt it. Part of the challenge of solving MH370 is to avoid the siren lure of a good-enough explanation by maintaining an open, questioning skeptical mindset.
The “local minima” problem isn’t unique to MH370 — it’s why so much truly delusional thinking has taken root throughout the information ecosystem — but if we figure out how to overcome it here perhaps we can apply the same techniques elsewhere.
2. The Reboot
A major goal of this podcast has been to highlight the problem of the SDU reboot, which we feel is the crux of the whole MH370 mystery. Not only is it profoundly difficult to explain, but it is the source of the data that tells us everything we know about the plane’s last six hours of flight. The consensus view that Zaharie took the plane has tended to minimize or overlook this problem entirely.
In Episode 30 we pointed out that two viral MH370 videos fell into this trap and we enlisted the help of Juan Browne to understand how we should be thinking about it. In short, the reboot is deeply problematic and needs to be understood as a major flaw in the southern hypothesis.
3. The Seabed Search Failure
.Once Inmarsat scientists figured out what the BFO data was telling them, they were confident that they had figured out where the plane went. The math was complicated, but its significance could not have been plainer. They had figured out where the plane had gone, they just needed to go look there and find it.
Yet when that area indicated by that math was searched, the plane wasn’t there. Amazingly, this absence is seen as unremarkable by many who are convinced that the plane went south. We explained in Episode 26 why its significance shouldn’t be overlooked.
4. The Debris Gap
This was a big one and we spent a couple of episodes building up to it. A major boost to our understanding came from our interview with esteemed marine biologist Jim Carlton in Episode 20. The conclusion that we reached is shocking, significant, and irrefutable: there is a yearlong gap between the disappearance of the plane and the first evidence that any of these pieces was in the water. This seems flatly impossible—until you take into account our next major advancement.
5. The Vulnerability
This I think was really the crowning achievement of Season 1. I’ve talked in the past about the possibility that the Inmarsat data had been spoofed, but for the first time we had cybersecurity professionals Ken Munroe and Todd Humphries saying that yes, there really is reason to think that MH370 could have been hacked, and we need to start taking that possibility seriously.
6. Secret Russian Ties
Another discovery that you won’t learn about anywhere else is the revelation that the man who found most of the pieces of MH370 debris — Blaine Alan Gibson —not only had deep and long-standing ties to Russia, but he lied and obfuscated about those connections.
Now, you may well disagree with the idea that the plane was hijacked by third-party attackers and taken north — the view that I have espoused — but no matter what your preferred theory may be, it has to deal with these facts of the case that we have laid out.
LOOKING AHEAD
As we pause to collect our breath and plan out the season to come, there are a whole bunch of things that we know we want to cover, but we also want to keep an open mind about what listeners, viewers and readers would like to hear. We’ve always intended this podcast to be a conversation, not a one-way data dump, so we’re keen to get your input about what we should cover as well as to hear your insights, ideas, corrections, and technical tips. Tell us about what you thought was good about the season, any improvements you’d like to see.
Among the things people have asked for so far, and that are high on our list to cover in Season 2:
- Weighing on other theories, like the shootdown theory Florence de Changy describes in her book “The Disappearing Act: The Impossible Case of MH370.”
- Looking into the backgrounds of the Russians on the flight.
- Getting into more detail on the cybersecurity vulnerability of MH370.
- Talking to relatives of the missing passengers and crew.
- Exploring how the geopolitical situation has change since MH370, and because of it.
- In general, bringing in more experts to shine a light on the key aspects of MH370 to try to gain a deep, holistic understanding of the facts of the case and what they mean.
MH370 is in so many ways a microcosm of the world we live today, and by understanding its causes and effects we can better understand how to navigate a complex and sometimes dangerous world.
Hi Jeff;
I have been watching this mini series a second time, my theory has not changed from the first time watching it.
Should you be interested I have my notes written in French taken from the first viewing and would require translation.
Best regards,
Denis Panneton
Bonjour, Denis! Merci pour votre intérêt. Vous pouvez me transférer votre fichier en français. Vous habitez en France? Mon adresse de courriel: jeff [at] jeffwise.net.
So did your investigation give you any leads? Was it based on solid evidence or did you formulate theories based on “learning” about the 777 yourself?
Sincerely,
An actual aerospace engineer.
Well, I think I found some pretty darned interesting things, actually! You should listen to the show. And what kind of aerospace engineer are you? I’m always looking for experts.
Hi Jeff,
Regarding your interest in hearing about my intelligence experience,
I can only inform you that it was classified SECRET, and that the work supported arial Infra-Red photographic images in a conflict area, in conjunction with the Air Force.
David,
Thanks for this, very interesting!
Jeff
Hi Jeff, I am reading your articles about MH370 with great interest and trying to reach a conclusion. My mind is always confronted with questions that I can’t fully answer. What really happened to MH370, I don’t think I can get a complete answer to this question.
Infrasound is a subject that seems to have been drowned out by other noises in recent years.
As the quest for “new evidence” remains, I think a fresh look at Infrasound records is warranted, as a possible source of such evidence, since it appears that at the time, such data was mostly secret.
Has that data been declassified for 7/8th March 2014 yet ?
David, re your post July 17, 2018 at 7:09 pm, the link to the quoted reference does not appear to work any more. (https://casis.llnl.gov/content/pages/casis-2014/docs/poster/Kane1-CASIS-2014.pdf)
Emre, Have you checked out the new season of my podcast? It’s all at FindingMH370.com. Happy to answer any questions you might have.
Ventus45, Are you referring to the hydroacoustic detections? I did two epiosodes about it in Season 2 of the podcast: episode 6, “Listening for MH370,” and episode 10, “Fighting Over Noise.”
Just finished watching the Netflix documentary for the second time and I think the following are two important points. What I want to know is why the debris sighting in the South China Sea that was reported by the Tomnod volunteer, Cyndi Hendry wasn’t followed up? To me, that is highly suspicious. She reported it numerous times and posted it on social media and it was constantly ignored. There are so many questions that need to be answered but this is a huge red flag. Surely any potential lead would be quickly followed up? The whole thing reeks of foul play IMO and to me, this is a huge cover up. Someone knows exactly what happened and why. There is an invested interest in keeping this quiet. What about the oil rig worker who saw something on fire in the sky? I personally don’t believe the captain had anything to do with this. This is a huge cover up IMO. Planes just don’t disappear without a trace! I feel so sorry for the families. This is the most horrendous tragedy. I think these markers point to the truth of what happened to them.
Hey Christina, I get asked about the Tomnod question all the time — this is something that documentary gave a somewhat distorted presentation of. The fact is that a ton of people, not just Cyndi Hendry, reported “seeing” MH370 on Tomnod imagery, but what they saw was either waves for clouds or debris — there’s simply no reason to think that what they saw was the plane. As for the idea that something fishy is going on, I think if you’d like to know what the evidence actually points to I think you should check out my podcast at FindingMH370.com
Apologies for the long post.
1. The problem is the majority of people will decide on a theory based on their biases and experiences prior to looking at the evidence.
After looking at the evidence, and based on logic, reasoning and simplicity, the most likely answer is: the crew oxygen bottle, which was repressurised prior to flight has ruptured mid flight. This has damaged the adjacent P105 left wire integration panel and has overwhelmed the crew with failures to left systems. In the chaos, the crew have missed the gradual decompression event, whilst conducting checklists and problem solving. The crew finally program a diversion to Banda Aceh airport via NILAM and SANOB before succumbing to hypoxia. The aircraft continues on autopilot and crashes inside the seventh arc at 34S93E.
2. The SDU reboot is caused by the crew repowering the left Main AC bus from the right side generator as detailed in the checklist.
However, the reboot can not connect through the inoperative left High Gain Antenna (HGA) thus it has to wait until the right side of the fuselage exposes its right High Gain Antenna to the satellite. This occurs exactly during the left turn at NILAM when the aircraft nose is pointing 262 degrees true at the satellite causing the SDU to switch from the left HGA to right HGA. The first BFO is perfect because of the additional time available for calculations prior to the log on. The first connection has poor reception due to the antenna transmitting along the longitudinal axis to the satellite. There is no Flight ID, because previously the crew have manually selected the right FMC from the failed left FMC, leading to a reboot, which deletes the Flight ID.
3. A diversion to Banda Aceh doesn’t end at 38S, it ends inside the seventh arc near 34S93E. A programmed diversion to Banda Aceh airport via NILAM and SANOB with an unresponsive crew will result in the aircraft slowing automatically to the descent speed but maintaining cruise altitude. However, due to the inoperative left autothrottle system, the left engine will remain at high thrust and the right engine will drastically reduce to slow the aircraft. The left engine will exhaust fuel 72 minutes prior to the right. As the aircraft passes overhead Banda Aceh airport, it automatically reverts to a constant magnetic heading i.e. 192.66 magnetic.
This path matches the BTO and BFO data. It doesn’t overshoot arc 6 and 7 because the left engine failure at 2307UTC causes the aircraft to fly at a reduce single engine speed whilst slightly descending, hence the BFO at 2314UTC is now valid.
4 The flaperon has extra speed due to its shape. A crash site near 34S93E matches debris damage, drift timings and barnacle analysis.
5 Inflight testing of switching the transponder to Altitude Reporting Off does not match the Flight Radar recording of zero altitude. Losing altitude reporting causes Flight Radar to coast the previous altitude.
The left transponder failed due to a technical fault, not a manual switch off.
6 Irrelevant. Blaine Gibson was not on MH370.
The nearest suitable airport to IGARI is Penang, hence the turnback in heading mode and at FL340/M0.84 (standard divert speed/altitude)
Hypoxia will lead to mental confusion, poor decision making and eventually death.
Banda Aceh airport is also an airport.
The cockpit oxygen masks are useless if the oxygen bottle has ruptured.
An onboard Flight Attendant had a flight simulator at home.
The Banda Aceh diversion route matches fuel load precisely if the bleed air system is inoperative for seven hours. This will lead to hypoxia.
The Audio Management Unit is a left system, without it, all radios are inoperative. The only possible chance of communication is a mobile phone. The First Officer switched on his phone enroute. The First Officer sitting in the front right seat is in the ideal position to connect to Penang.
Primary radar data from Phuket, Sabang, Sibolga and Lhokseumawe would show MH370 flight path over Banda Aceh, but is all not available.
The BTO logons from the aircraft at Arc 1 and 7 are in error (slightly too far) due to an additional timing delay from the electronics bay to the SDU.
The accident site (inside the seventh arc at 34S93E) is still unsearched.
Thanks for your reply, have just subscribed. (This mystery is actually starting to drive me crazy!) I hope the families find the resolution and answers they deserve soon. It’s been far too long. I believe they are resuming the search for MH370 today from what I’ve read in the news.