Nine years ago, MH370 took off into a clear, moonlit night and flew into the unknown. Somewhere over the South China Sea, 40 minutes into the red-eye flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, it disappeared from radar screens. None of the 239 passengers and crew were ever seen again. The conventional thinking is that the pilot had decided to commit mass murder-suicide by crashing into a remote corner of the southern Indian Ocean. But significant aspects of the case remained unexplained, including the plane’s ultimate resting place, and search officials have long since given up trying to determine what happened. Officially, MH370 is a cold case.
The urgency of solving the mystery remains, though. It’s disturbing enough that a state-of-the-art airliner can disappear so completely off the face of the earth; it’s even more troubling that the authorities, armed with hundreds of millions of dollars to conduct a search and self-proclaimed near certainty about where it must have gone, could fail to locate the 200-foot-long aircraft.
I’ve been following the case obsessively from the beginning, appearing on CNN to talk about it and writing about it in this magazine. I dove deep into the evidence for a 2019 book, and then spent several years working with the producers of a three-part Netflix documentary series, which debuts this week. My hope is that, while the passage of time has lessened the public’s interest in the case, it has also dispelled the fog of wild claims, giving us space to consider the evidence with greater clarity. Far from being a dead end, MH370 still offers multiple leads worth investigating. It’s important that we follow them.
A strange U-turn
A distinctive aspect of the flight is that it got progressively weirder as it went along. Everything was normal when it took off from Kuala Lumpur. Then 40 minutes later, the plane went electronically dark and vanished from Air Traffic Control screens. Still visible on military radar, it pulled a hard U-turn and flew west toward India. Then three minutes after leaving radar coverage, its satellite communications system, or satcom, turned back on. For the next six hours, the satcom periodically emitted signals that would later offer investigators vague hints of the plane’s trajectory.
It took weeks before the Australian government announced to the public that its scientists had solved the mathematical riddle posed by those transmissions and had calculated the plane’s final resting place in the southern ocean. The implication was that the plane’s captain, Zaharie Ahmen Shah, must have taken the aircraft. Yet after spending years searching the area, and far beyond, they found no trace of the fuselage on the seabed, a turn of events they labeled in their final report as “almost inconceivable.”
So where is the plane?
To many people, the failure of the search seemed unsurprising. The ocean is a big place, after all. But the searchers’ failure was actually baffling. The data they were working from was precise and the mathematics were well understood. For the plane to have gone into the Southern Ocean, and yet wound up somewhere outside the search zone, would require a sequence of events ranging from vanishingly unlikely to flat-out impossible.
Wrestling with how this might have happened quickly gets you into weird territory. Most people, and the search authorities themselves, prefer simple, normal-seeming explanations. And if you consider only the broad outlines of the case, there are simple, normal theories that seem compelling. But once you start examining the evidence in higher detail, the simple theories start to develop holes.
The weirdest part of a weird mystery
To me, the great underappreciated red flag of the case is the fact that the satcom was turned back on. I have yet to meet a 777 pilot who, before MH370, had even heard of the critical piece of equipment, a box called the Satellite Data Unit, or SDU. It turns out that the procedure for turning the SDU off and back on is not included on any of the pilots’ emergency checklists, and instead requires a sophisticated knowledge of the plane’s electrical system. Of all the many theories floated about MH370, none includes a plausible explanation for why anyone would want to mess with it. Yet this inexplicable eventuality gave rise to the signals that the whole seabed search rested on.
What we can say now is that whatever happened to MH370, it must have been deeply strange. As the years have gone by, even more mind-bending clues have turned up, like the data from the captain’s home flight simulator (first described in this article) which ambiguously suggests he may have practiced a flight into the southern ocean. All the same, though, the range of possibilities is not infinite. Investigators possess numerical data generated by known physical processes. This data did not come out of thin air. Theories that match it might be correct; theories that don’t must not be.
As I struggled to make sense of the case’s anomalies in the early months after the disappearance, I realized that some unusual details of the plane’s electrical configuration might point the way to a solution. As I explained in a New York Magazine feature eight years ago, if hijackers tampered with the SDU to create a false electronic trail for investigators, then the implication would be that the plane didn’t go south after all, but rather north to Kazakhstan. The only possible perpetrator of such an operation would be Russia, which was in the process of seizing Crimea from Ukraine at the time and benefited from having the world’s attention redirected. I admitted then that my theory is something of a wild ride, but it has yet to be disproven. The default hypothesis is not the only option.
What we can still do
The good news is that there are positive steps that we the public can take to help move this case closer to a resolution. For starters, we can urge the Australian government to reopen the investigation and make a serious, transparent reckoning of where its assumptions went wrong. Second, we can pressure the Malaysian government to finally release all the evidence in its possession, including the full set of military radar returns showing the plane’s last known track.
It’s clear that the authorities have been embarrassed by their failures so far. The easiest thing for them to do would be to leave it all in the past. But too much is at stake — both for the family members of the disappeared and for the flying public, who have a right to know that their aircraft will not spontaneously vanish. As I hope the Netflix documentary makes clear, there’s an uncomfortable hole in our seamless network of global transportation. We need to do every conceivable thing in our power to figure out what happened.
MH370 is not a legend. It is real, and science can find it.
This article ran in New York magazine on March 8, 2023.
Tomas, A lot of people are asking about the call from the passenger’s father. One aspect of the case I don’t know anything about…
Hi Daniel, to answer your question, I did not look into the alleged AWACS situation; it does not seem to me to, as you put it, adhere to an inner logic.
I wonder if Russians (or someone else) downed MH170 over Ukraine so that they could use downed plane wreckage, and plant it on the beaches. Also, it is highly suspicious that non of the authorities had taken an action to search beaches, but some random guy did! Just saying based on limited information, and Brian unaware of any timelines. So take these comments with a pinch of salt!
Hi Jeff, I recently watched the Netflix documentary about MH370. Please hear me out before you think I’m nuts. I just retired in July, and with time on my hands I’ve been watching airplane crashed on YouTube(not sure why, but I found them interesting). In those video’s I noticed a good 3-5 airplanes caught fire/exploded/crashed do to having lithium, li-ion batteries on board. My theory is this. MH370 had 2.5 tons of these same batteries on board, plus electronic equipment. 2.5 tons! let that sink in for a minute. An off shore oil rig said they saw the plane on fire. There are two scenarios here. One: The batteries started that fire which was seen by the people on the oil rig, and it crashed(still on fire) in the ocean headed in the correct direction. Two: The batteries started the fire that spread quickly throughout the plane and blow up in mid air. That’s why they spotted debris over a large area(not much left after fire). Don’t forget, MH370 had 7 hours of fuel on board, and a fire would have made it blow up/crash pretty quickly. That’s why Blaine has been finding just bits and pieces on the shorelines. I do believe that Cyndi Hendry is correct about the location of some of the plane in the South China sea location. The bigger pieces are right where Cyndi showed they were. That plane never turned left or right and came back in the same direction it left. I believe the coverup is with Inmarsat. Their satellite info is incorrect and they know it. Because Inmarsat is lying/incorrect, Malaysia has been chasing their tail looking in the wrong direction. Get this: In 2020, there were 39 fires happening on both passenger and cargo planes because of batteries, whether they were part of cargo, or PED’s. In 2022 there were 62 incidents involving lithium-ion batteries on airplanes, and in airports. These fires are happening more and more, and just another flight away from being another MH370. Can you investigate this issue. It might open your eyes to new possibilities.
Jeff – great to see your investigative work back in the mix.
The episodes were really good. I expected though to see Mike Exner asked, when he dismissed your view, to explain the reboot of the SDU. What is his answer?
Same with Richard Quest – he scopped at someone going into the bay in the plane, but how does he explain the reboot?
DG, Thanks! Mike Exner did actually try to tackle this problem, he proposed that the pilot wanted to make the plane as efficient as possible so it could fly faster down the Strait of Malacca, so he turned off the entire electrical system in order to cut down on the power used by the generator. Which, IMO, is a lot crazier than anything I ever proposed.
And yes, Richard Quest scoffed, saying, “No pilot ever goes down in the E/E bay.” Exactly!
What did you find on the 3 russians that were on board MH370?
What did you find on MH17?
What connection if any have you found between China/Russia?
Here’s something I’ve written about the Russians:
http://jeffwise.net/2019/03/09/the-russian-passengers-aboard-mh370/
Here’s something about MH17:
http://jeffwise.net/2019/06/25/mh17-russia-pwned-the-west/
I don’t know anything about a link between China and Russia.
We just watched your Netflix series about MH370 and it was fascinating. The big unanswered question is why no one followed up on the debris in the south China sea that was visible from the satellite images. Why not even look if they were spending 3 years searching for the plane??? And if they were lithium batteries, not sensitive US technology, and they possibly caused a catastrophic fire, why was that not pursued more thoroughly after someone reporting seeing fire in the sky where the plane would have been?
Jeff – early reader of your articles and book. Thank you for bringing your serious and intelligent view to Netflix.
Two conspicuous omissions from the Netflix series: the landing areas in Kazakhstan that showed clear changes before and after the disappearance; Blaine’s US apartment and its link to Russian operatives, which seemed to be incontrovertible evidence that he was a Russian asset.
Were these points cut out?
Jeff, One key question and the 3 part series ignores it for the most part. The woman from Florida seemed to clearly see a large plane under the water. Why was that not investigated? And if it was, why wasn’t it thoroughly explained in the Netflix series?
@Dave B – I am of the belief that Jeff is at his Wisest when it comes to his research on Brodskii, Chusyrak, and Deineka. I was one of the first people on Earth to buy his ebook in 2019, and thoroughly enjoyed and actually found quite plausible his speculative scenario in the epilogue. These Russians are the Rosetta Stone of this tragedy and enigma.
Eileen, the suspected debris in the South China Sea didn’t pan out, and a lithium battery fire is unlikely as the plane kept flying, and maneuvering, for six more hours.
David C, Thanks for all your support! There was a lot that they left out simply for time reasons. Maybe if this series generates enough interest there will be time to elaborate on more of these things.
John, A lot of people are asking this! In short, there was no supporting evidence and, as Blaine pointed out, if the plane crashed into the South China Sea there would be lots of bits floating around. Nothing was found.
My guy you really need to speak to several therapists
I agree with Debra’s idea about the lithium batteries catching fire. A few months ago a cargo ship carrying electric cars caught on fire, and it was impossible to extinguish, and sunk the entire cargo ship. Also in NYC there have been case of e-bikes catching in fire and burning the entire building. If the plane burned while in flight, and the aviation fuel fed the fire. That would explain the lack of an oil spill, or floatable items such as the seat cushions.
As far as the satellite pings for 6 hours in the opposite direction.. That could very well be some software error. Who knows how accurate the data is. Until an independent 3rd party can test the satellite system’s accuracy and integrity we really shouldn’t let that data overshadow the obvious. Lithium batteries cause fires. 2 thousand pounds of Lithium batteries can cause a massive fire.
I hope current regulations don’t allow Lithium batteries in the cargo section of any plane!!
Jeff you have done a great job on your theories and testing the truth!
I thought Indiana Jones was a bit out there and how co-incidental to just rock up and find bits of a plane?
If, that Flaperon was from MH370 then I belive that Shah, or whoever, didn’t send the plane into a dive from 35,000+ feet. My thoughts are that they didn’t want any debris to be found at all and like Capt Sully, he flew the plane close to sea level under full flaps to maintain as much lift at low speed and sat in down in the drink! Hence why only a Flaperon torn off.
Just a theory, however I believe it is much closer to upper coast of Western Australia than it is down South. Just a theory.
Jeff,
Has anyone searched Port Mathurin island or Mauritius island or the waters before these island for MH370? The Malaysia flight had 7hrs worth of fuel. The distance from Malaysia to Mauritius island or Port Mathurin island is 7hrs 10 minutes.
Erasmo Garza
I can’t believe the doc easily over passed the phone calls.
Your second theory would be more realistic if a Russian goes turn off electronic control, another Russian goes to cockpit and taking over the plane, another Russian communicating with US awocs. Especially if the found piece is missing ID plate and it’s a sign of dismantling, then Russian must’ve been after the plane for a teardown operation. if the plane didn’t land in Khazekstan, is there possibility for it landing on a Russian ship in Indian ocean?
Mahsa, Well, the reason I suspected Russia in the first place is simply because the Inmarsat data, if spoofed, would suggest that the plane went to Kazakhstan. If the plane went into the Indian Ocean there would be no reason to suspect Russia.
Sav, My wife agrees.
I see the response about why they didn’t finish looking into the noted pictured debri of a plane in the south china sea, but why didn’t any of the other boats/people who were helping to look, to atleast rule it out as an option? Doesn’t make sense. The way they matched some of the outlines was too close of a potential.
Hi, Jeff. Interested amateur here. I don’t have Netflix so I’ve bought your ebook in lieu. Pretty good read, btw.
MH370 differs from most other “mysteries” which generate conspiracy theories (JFK, 911, the Skripals, etc) in that those all have pretty solid orthodox narratives that explain most of their important anomalies – sure, they all have one or two remaining odd questions which the orthodox theorists can only shrug at, but those don’t seem that important and could be explained by coincidence, incompetence, or someone covering up their incompetence. MH370 isn’t like that; as far as I can tell, there is no widely accepted orthodox explanation. In such circumstances, it is the intellectual duty or all of us to check our ego and politics at the door and to study the arguments and evidence and to honestly evaluate their relative weight. The thing I like about your book and blog is that that’s exactly what you do. TBH I doubt your theory is wholly true, but I am certain that there are elements about it that are true and that are missed by the orthodox theories, and that you raising these questions and anomalies will eventually resolve the matter and perhaps even find the plane. In short, you might or might not be right, but either way what you’re doing is of the utmost importance.
(Having said that, in support of your theory, the more we find out about Putin the more we realise that he is not a man that recognises limits. See eg the Skripal affair, which although as I say has holes in the orthodox explanation, was certainly a Russian hit).
I know the West Australian coastline is very vast (I live here) but the fact that not one piece of MH370 has never been found here, I personally find amazing.
I would think if MH370 ended up in the Southern Indian Ocean, something would have washed up on our shores.
It’s great to see how much attention the new Netflix doc is getting 🙂
Jeff I’ve spent more than a few hours these past few days talking to some of my NYC legal/finance/Wall St. colleagues about your work, in the wake of their being mesmerized by the NFLX series. I’d love to connect you and talk gooseneck barnacles and Ukrainian furniture in person, and some ideas for follow up projects. Be on the lookout for an email from me.
Ang, The area was quite thoroughly searched. Unlike the southern Indian Ocean, it’s a very heavily trafficked area.
George, Thank you so much. I’m glad you liked the book, and I really appreciate your understanding and endorsement of the approach I’ve been trying to take.
Vis à vis Putin, as I’ve said before, I might have been wrong about what happened to the plane, but my fears of the implication — that we were being attacked by a resourceful and ruthless enemy, without being capable of even realizing it — turned out to be unfortunately fully realized.
Sunken Deal, That sounds great, hit me up.
Laura, And they were looking for it, too! I remember back in the day talking to members of the annual beach cleanup drive, they were very aware of the possibility of MH370 debris. Lots of people all around the Indian Ocean basin were on the lookout for pieces. But only one guy had all the luck…
Hi My name is Daniel Powell i am a world leading expert in mobile phone network technology. i have a question , all or most of the people on MH370 would have been carrying mobile phones and other devices with SIM cards. Has there ever been an analysis done to match the IMSI and the IMEI of each of the passengers mobile SIM and handset when they were used in thier home networks and Malaysia, and then checked at any point to ensure the IMEI/handset and SIM either individually or together have been detected entering another mobile network after the flight disappeared. i.e if the plane landed in another country they may have tried to access the network. you would be able to see this from signalling records , i would hope this has been done.
Hi Jeff, I’m going with the very simple theory that because of those batteries in cargo, fuel, witnessed statements of a explosion in night, pictures of the larger pieces in South China Sea, as of 2023, those batteries catching fire, getting too hot, etc, that those passengers( who also had cell phone with those batteries) just, like the plane, caused it to just explode while in flight. Happens more often since that time back then. It’s the same as 9/11 and those that perished either by jumping( which would just imploded their remains), or when buildings came down, nothing is found of those people. Amelia Earhart would find this interesting if anyone know where she was. But I don’t think now, or back then when I discovered about those batteries as cargo, fuel, etc, do I think it’s not so complicated to understand. No one interviewed those witnesses from the oil rig or the fishermen( if there are fishermen), in this documentary, why? But I just believe components of everything, isn’t as nefarious as the documentary suggests. It exploded and all perished due to it. I don’t think Governments conspired to take the plane down at all knowing what is known regarding the batteries. I do without a doubt believe the lady from FL, who found the bigger parts. The South Chains Sea is very deep and maybe only what looks like bigger parts of plane( but really by the exploding, aren’t that large in ocean), is the realistic conclusion. Bless those who perished, and not all victims are brought home in an explosion of any kind. Land, Sea, Plane, Car, etc. Not everything comes to the surface when things explode and rain down from that altitude. Thank you, but just my thoughts.
Jeff,
Has anyone or any government searched the region in the South China Sea where plane debris was located by the woman living in Florida? If not, why not? Thank you
Dear Jeff.
Your netflix video gave me the last clue for understand the final destiny of Flight 370.
I know where it is.
I must send my spanish version.
Daniel, I have no idea!
Hi Jeff, congrats, brave man. First independent group wasn’t nice to you.
It’s always important to raise questions, no matter how strange it can be.
1) gaps in your theory: expected more information about the 3 russians recruted to test some high sophisticated hacking for putin’s regime.
2) it’s easy to hack a car. Good question: how easy is to hardware hack avionics from an external digital intelligence? Or internal? If the answer is positive, would it allows to take complete control? Are you sure about it?
3) it seems that the french guy has the best source. I’m not a native english speaker, I didnt get the message about the cargo. Have u tried to work together, you and the other lady? In case of industrial Batteries, of course it wouldnt be put under xrays. Thought about the other journalist theory, it fits some small details , I have to Watch it again, I just cant see a reasonable explanation: that some US super secret military technology was put in a commercial plane that was scheduled to go to China!! It makes no sense. And maybe the enemy is next to you: usa.
5) Is a Blaine a toy in the hands of authorities? some kind of smoking gun…
6) Data nowadays can be manipulated in a variety of forms. If the plane was hijacked, it is more plausible to try explanations about motivations. Forensics team prove nothing. The detail about a piece of wing without the sticky robust sign id is interesting. The numbers registered were adulterated according to the lady? Boeing produces many military technologies for the us army, I didnt get the message of the second journalist. It was confusing. The other lady from the other group was definitely a good person, she really did her homework but the image isn’t clear, it’s dificult to see debris patterns on the objetcs trough netflix documentary.
7) If the french guy’s source is trustable, why usa doesn’t reveal the truth? Fear of revealing secret technology is not an excuse. Data can be segregated in what remains classified and in what can be shown. If they are quiet because it’s not possible to segregate this specific data, let’s think that this scenario represents the truth, the choice of helping authorities is still possible. They are clever enough to do a plan that not allows reverse engineering.
8) Authorities have technology enough to blow off the entire planet. I agree to you. It is not fair the absence of good explanation. We have sequenced the genome in 2000, the technology today is capable of things beyond our imagination.
Keep doing more research. Speak to specialists of many scientific fields. Get a new team, good people, that have good hearts. The other journalist and the lady who did the image search are good people.
Hello Jeff
Would it possible to have a chat via email ?
Simon
Jeff, real world ATC with multiple endorsements, and commercial pilot. I fully appreciate the dedication to all potential realities on what happened. If you ever need technical support/guidance, on existing or future evidence. Please reach out.
Jeff – I remember your delving here on your blog into the flaperon and barnacles and how long the pieces of debris would have actually been in the water. Re-watching episode 3, that was not covered.
What you wrote at the time seemed compelling to me and demanding an answer from the investigation.
A few years later now, what is your view? Was there convincing proof documented that the flaperon or any of the debris was in the ocean for the trip all the way? Or is the debris still suspect from even that angle?
Great question DG!
Also if there are any statisticians here, I ask you:
1. What are the odds that two Boeing 777s from the same carrier being destroyed within 131 days of each other are independent and unrelated events?
2. What are the odds that one human being on earth was able to find 20+ pieces of wreckage of 9MMRO?
Jeff,
in Europe, a plane that flies with the transponder turned off into the air space of a country causes alarm in the Air Force and will get contacted and intercepted within minutes.
Is that not a standard procedure in Asia? Do you believe MH370 could have flown all the way to Kazachstan without popping up on military radar and causing alarm?
Thanks,
Robert
Dear Jeff , iv watched your Netflix show and totally with you . Could I ask a question that I know most people will think is silly . Why do you not try and get a few different spiritual mediums talk to them individually and see if they can help with information? I know most people do not believe BUT you never know police do you medium’s to help I can not hurt , not reading for the families just information
Say you spoke to 10 different mediums they might all give the same information? I would try anything if it was me . I do not believe that plane ever crashed I believe it was landed why or where .. obviously I have no idea . Hope you see this message jade uk
“But only one guy had all the luck…” Right!
The rich guy with possible ties to Russia just happens to stumble upon it.
If the authorities knew where the wreckage would likely show up (like Blaine says) then why weren’t the authorities looking for it.
When investigations aren’t carried out properly, then of course people are going to question the official narrative.
And that comment directed at you that he made! What’s the bet he has Lin (I sue) Wood as his attorney, lmao.
Some family members received calls from the passengers few hours after when the plane should’ve landed. If a phone pinged it can be traced the whereabouts of its locations no?
Mr. Wise, can you please explain why you find the theory of a Russian hijacking more logical to explore than that of an American cover-up? Are they not just as equally outlandish? I was with you for the first part of the doc, but I personally find the Russian theory ridiculous. What I find even more ridiculous, though, is your adamance against discussing the plausibility of an American attack. Why has no in-depth search been carried out based on the debris sightings in the South China Sea?
Jeff, thank you for your participation in the Netflix documentary and working on the story for all those years. Is there a direct email? I have something you maybe interested in.
Hello, Jeff, everybody’s posting up their own theories. Me, I just want to say I’m thankful for your work. what you have done is more than admirable. You are the clear example of not giving up. I believe you will get to the bottom of all this. I hope you do, I wish the truth to be uncovered and hopefully I’ll live to see it. Thank you. PS: being crazy is better than being a commoner, too lazy to do anything else than swallow the lies they’re told day by day. Hope your wife knows this.
Just a quick question. If the debris was found on the grass, where the pictures show, why is the grass not longer then it is after a long period of time?
Jeff, I guess you’re talking about the flaperon found on Réunion Island? It was found on the shore and dragged up onto the grass.
Thank you Bulma!