Yesterday Twitter user @nihonmama released the first two folders from the secret Malaysian police report into MH370. Some parts relating to Zaharie’s flight simulator had been released earlier, but the bulk of this material is coming into public view for the first time. Here is “Folder 1: Pilot” and here is “Folder 2: Co-pilot.”
I was particularly interested in the section containing the psychological evaluation of the pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, found on page 111. As it is in Malaysian, I had to type it into Google Translate to make any sense of it. As I have absolutely no understanding of Malaysian I am copying it and pasting it below without any changes. Corrections welcome!
Hon. Datuk Mazlan bin Mansor
Deputy Director (Intelligence / Operations),
CID,
Royal Malaysian Police,
Bukit Aman,
50560, Kuala LumpurHon. Dato ‘
Expertise help the Ministry of Health in Malysia Investigation Missing MH370: The study “Psychosocial and Behavioural Pattern” crew MH370.
Letter from Hon. Dato ‘no. ref: JSJ KPN (PR) 35/3 dated July 3, 2014 and the terms of reference of the assessment panel “behavioral pattern and psychosocial crew of MH370 is referenced.
2. The sub-committee meeting between Kiraja Malaysia Police (PDRM) and KementerianKesihatan (MOH) was held in Room Mesyusarat, Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta, Perak on 7 July 2014. The purpose of this meeting was to obtain an independent report (independent) The above assessment.
3. Here is the panel sub-committee has been established.
[The letter lists three officials from the Ministry of Health and six officials from the Royal Malaysian Police]
4. Assessment conducted on flight MH370 pilot Captain Zaharia Ahmad Shah and co-pilot, en. Fariq Ab. Hamid, have been guided by reference listed:
i. Quoting witnesses related conversations pilot, Captain Zaharia Ahmad Shah, total of 40 person which includes 5 members, 20 co-workers, friends WeChat 9 and 6 public witnesses.
ii. Quoting witnesses related conversations pilot, Mr. Fariq Ab. Hamid total of 9 people including 3 members of the family, his girlfriend, and five colleagues.
iii. Quotes clips CCTV video at KLIA’s movement, patterns of behavior and expression on the face (facial expression) Zaharie co-pilot En. Fariq before their flight dated 07.03.2014.
iv. Quotes CCTV video clips KLIA Zaharie on 26.02.2014 before his flight to Denpasar, Indonesia and on 03.03.2014 before his flight to Melbourne, Australia.
v. Medical reports Zaharie.5. Based on these reference sources, we have studied the background Zaharie including education, personality and coping (coping style), relationship with spouse, children, family members, friends and colleagues, including his interests and hobbies. Attention has also been given to her relationship with her maid. His physical health problems are investigated including asthma and diseases of the spine, which caused him to have to take treatment drugs painkillers “analgesics.” Religious and political tendencies he observed.
6. We also reviewed the background of the co-pilot Mr. Fariq including education, personality, relationships with family members, friends and colleagues.
7. Highlights are as follows:
7.1 In the field of career, Zaharie is an experienced pilot and a competent and respected by peers.
7.2 Available Zaharie not share the same interests with his family members. However, the difference in interest is acceptable. His family was also not reported any change of pattern of behavior (behavioral pattern) before his flight was on 07/03/2014.
7.3 Information from friends and colleagues Zaharie show that he was a friendly, warm and jokes. They are also not reported any change of pattern of behavior before his flight was on 03/07/2014.
7.4 Problems spinal pain he was a fairly chronic physical problems rather than a new stressor.
7.5 Review of comparisons based recording video clips CCTV KLIA on 26.02.2014, 03.03.2014 and 03.07.2014, found him tending to smoke before her flight and movements of his time smoking was similar in all three videos. At KLIA CCTV video clip on 03/07/2014, Zaharie not show any sign of anxiety or depression.
Finally, we have not found, any changes in terms of psychological, social and behavioral patterns Zaharie Ahman Shah before his flight was on 03/07/2014. We also did not find any demolition of psychological, social and behavioral patterns of co-pilot En. Fariq Ab Hamid before his flight was on 03/07/2014.
Thank you.
“CARING, TEAMWORK PROFESSIONALISM AND WE ARE WORKING CULTURE”
I who am following orders,
Dr. HJH. RABA’IAH BINTI MOHD. sALLEH
MMC NO: 25878
Director & Consultant Psychiatry (Forensic)
Special Grade “C”
Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta
Perak Darul Ridzuan
I find this to be a truly remarkable document. We’ve been hearing rumors that the investigation found no evidence that suggested Zaharie could have a psychological predilection for suicide/mass murder, but here it is at last in black and white, with details such as the fact that his pattern of smoking before a flight was unchanged before MH370. It is hard to imagine that anyone contemplating his own imminent death could exhibit such sang froid.
Indeed, I don’t think there has ever been a case where someone who is known to have carried out such an act had such an outward appearance of being balanced and well-adjusted. Andreas Lubitz, for example, had experienced years of psychological upheaval trouble, at one point temporarily washing out from Lufthansa’s flight training program, before destroying Germanwings 9525.
In my estimation this psych evaluation must be regarded as powerful evidence that Zaharie did not hijack MH370.
After the jump, the letter in the original Malay, as re-typed by me from the report.
YBhg. Datuk Mazlan bin Mansor
Timbalan Pengarah (Risikan/Operasi),
Jabatan Siasatan Jenayah,
Polis Diraja Malaysia,
Bukit Aman,
50560, Kuala Lumpur
YBhg. Dato’,
Bantuan Kepakaran Kementerian Kesihatan Malysia dalam Siasatan Kehilangan MH370: Kajian “Behavioural Pattern dan Psikososial” krew MH370.
Surat daripada YBhg. Dato’ no. ruj: JSJ KPN (PR) 35/3 bertarikh 3 Julai 2014 dan terma rujukan utama panel pengkajian “behavioural pattern dan psikososial krew pesawat MH370 adalah dirujuk.
2. Mesyuarat sub-committee antara Polis Kiraja Malaysia (PDRM) dan KementerianKesihatan Malaysia (KKM) telah diadakan di Bilik Mesyusarat, Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta, Perak pada 7 Julai 2014. Tujuan mesyuarat ini diadakan adalah untuk mendapatkan satu laporan yang berkecuali (independent) di atas penilaian tersebut.
3. Berikut adalah panel sub-committee yang telah ditubuhkan.
4. Penilaian yang dijalankan terhadap juruterbang pesawat MH370 Kapten Zaharie Ahmad Shah dan pembantu juruterbang, en. Fariq Ab. Hamid, telah berpandukan sumber rujukan yang tersenarai:
i. Petikan percakapan saksi berkaitan juruterbang, Kapten Zaharie Ahmad Shah, sejumiah 40 orag yang merangkumi 5 orang ahli keluarga, 20 orang rakan sekerja, 9 orang rakan WeChat dan 6 orang saksi awam.
ii. Petikan percakapan saksi berkaitan pembantu juruterbang, En. Fariq Ab. Hamid sejumlah 9 orang yang merangkumi 3 orang ahli keluarga, teman wanita beliau, dan 5 orang rakan sekerja.
iii. Petikan klip-klip video CCTV di KLIA mengenai pergerakan, corak tingkah laku dan mimik muka (facial expression) Kapten Zaharie bersama pembantu juruterbang En. Fariq sebelum penerbangan mereka yang bertarikh 7.3.2014.
iv. Petikan klip-klip video CCTV KLIA Kapten Zaharie pada 26.2.2014 sebelum penerbangan beliau ke Denpasar, Indonesia dan pada 3.3.2014 sebelum pnerbangan beliau ke Melbourne, Australia.
v. Laporan perubatan Kapten Zaharie.
5. Berpandukan sumber rujukan tersebut, kami telah mengkaji latar belakang Kapten Zaharie termasuk pendidikan, personaliti dan daya tindak (coping style), perhubungan dengan isteri, anak-anak, ahli keluarga, kawan-kawan dan rakan sejawat termasuk minat dan hobi beliau. Perhatian juga telah diberi kepada perhubungan beliau dengan pembantu rumahnya. Masalah kesihatan fizikal beliau juga diteliti termasuk penyakit asma dan penyakit tulang belakang yang menyebabkan beliau perlu mengambil rawatan ubat-ubatan penahan sakit “analgesics.” Kecenderungan keagamaan dan politik beliau juga diamati.
6. Kami juga telah mengkaji latar belakang pembantu juruterbang En Fariq termasuk pendidikan, personaliti, perhubungan dengan ahli keluarga, kawan-kawan dan rakan sejawat.
7. Rumusan kami adalah seperti berikut:
7.1 Di bidang kerjaya, Kapten Zaharie adalah seorang juruterbang yang berpengalaman dan kompeten serta dihormati oleh rakan sejawat.
7.2 Didapati Kapten Zaharie tidak berkongsi minat yang sama dengan ahli keluarga beliau. Walau bagaimanpun, perbezaan minat ini adalah sesuatu yang boleh diterima. Keluarga beliau juga tidak melapurkan apa-apa perubahan dari corak tingkah laku (behavioural pattern) sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014.
7.3 Maklumat dari kawan-kawan dan rakan sejawat Kapten Zaharie menunjukkan bahawa beliau merupakan seorang yang peramah, mesra dan boleh berlawak jenaka. Mereka juga tidak melapurkan apa-apa perubahan dari corak tingkah laku sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014.
7.4 Masalah sakit tulang belakang beliau merupakan satu masalah fizikal yang agak kronik dan bukannya merupakan suatu stressor baru.
7.5 Kajian berpandukan perbandingan rakaman klip-klip video CCTV KLIA pada tarikh 26.2.2014, 3.3.2014 dan 7.3.2014, mendapati beliau cenderung merokok sebelum pnerbangan beliau dan gerak-geri beliau semasa merokok adalah sama di ketiga-tiga video tersebut. Pada klip video CCTV KLIA pada 7.3.2014, Kapten Zaharie tidak menunjukkan apa-apa tanda kegelisahan ataupun kemurungan.
Akhir kata, kami tidak mendapati, apa-apa perubahan dari segi psikologi, sosial dan corak tingkah laku Kapten Zaharie Ahman Shah sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014. Kami juga tidak mendapati apa-apa perubuhan dari segi psikologi, social dan corak tingkah laku pembantu juruterbang En. Fariq Ab Hamid sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014.
Akhir kata, kami tidak mendapati, apa-apa perubahan dari segi psikologi, sosial dan corak tingkah laku Kapten Zaharie Ahman Shah sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014. Kami juga tidak mendapati apa-apa perubuhan dari segi psikologi, social dan corak tingkah laku pembantu juruterbang En. Fariq Ab Hamid sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014.
Sekian, terima kasih.
“PENYAYANG, PROFESSIONALISM DAN KERJA BERPASUKAN ADALAH BUDAYA KERJA KITA”
Saya yang menurut perintah,
Dr. HJH. RABA’IAH BINTI MOHD. SALLEH
MMC NO : 25878
Pengarah & Pakar Perunding Psikiatri (Forensik)
Gred Khas “C”
Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta
Perak Darul Ridzuan
And some other probably more important news:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mh370-no-suspicions-crew-passengers-says-french-probe-195742311.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw
@Nederland
“Would you mind providing a clear link to the material that currently is in the public domain?”
The most extensive source for MH 370 Material I have found so far is scribd.
You can register with a free one month account and do a search for MH370.
Select all documents and fine tune the search to
– english language
– pdf files only
– 4-100 pages
You will find RMP report folders 1, 2, 5, 6
and multiple dicuments .
It is easy downloadable.
@RetiredF4
Thank you.
The U.S. diplomatic outlook on Russia after the Cold War is mirrored in yesterday’s NYT, by former ambassador to Moscow, William J. Burns, for anyone interested. It is straddling into OT here of course, but I had some general yield from it: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/07/opinion/sunday/how-we-fool-ourselves-on-russia.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0&referer=https://t.co/Tj0bJPb1s9
@Middleton
“There is another explanation possible: the RMP’s analysis based on the web browsing history found states that the simulator PC was pretty well solely used for running the FS game, with some web searches for causes of errors and crashes.”
Wow, so another hint that he might have found about ethiopian hijack(s) and tried to replicate that with final destination being CI.
I really can’t see why such theory seems far-fetched to people, as it’s compatible with 7th arc, independent drift analysis and almost complete flying/behavioral pattern fits(well, at least until something went wrong before approach).
Deleting files the day before the last flight to Peking before this one is also indicative. He wanted specifically this flight, and only reason would be to overfly Malaysia and embarrass the government.
@VictorI: phone use right before take-off:
Is it possible to verify from the records that Z actively tried to use the phone to call someone or if he simply checked for calls and messages before turning the phone off? It is still too close to takeoff but I can’t say how damning/unusual that would be.
@StevanG:
Personally I can’t see the connection between deleting files / erasing evidence and a hijack with hostage taking the plane to CI or anywhere really. But you perhaps didn’t mean to be so specific?
Appendix K-2 of the RMP report (pdf page 134 out of 227 pages total) is a map of Penang Island showing the primary radar route of MH370 at high resolution. I digitized this route and compared with the route shown in ATSB “Underwater Search Definitions” and with my reconstructed route using Fig. 4.2 of “Bayesian Methods”. Results are given in an update to the study I did back in November:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/14hleZyx1pUPL44yaeHKt6jnSQ3DbgRq2zibbKkFLq2c/edit?pref=2&pli=1
(follow link to first article). Bottom line is that the new points fall squarely on top of the ATSB route, and the timing is within 3 seconds of that derived from the reconstruction. (The reconstructed route passes about 1 nm North of the ATSB radar route, presumably due to limitations of the BM filter.)
Separately, pdf page 133 gives a map of the entire route starting from Kuala Lumpur. This figure looks like an earlier version of the ATSB map, because: 1) the route between KL and IGARI shows the filed flight plan (PIBOS departure plus airway R208), not the “direct IGARI” route that was actually flown; 2) the turn-back is drawn as a thin line, suggesting it might have been a hypothetical reconstruction; and 3) the route over the Strait of Malacca ends at Pulau Perak, not at the 18:22:12 point. Note that two points are labeled “Eyewitness”.
@sk999
The eyewitness label seems to suggest that the report is from early days as it seems to rely on 11/3 reports about a low flying plane at Pulau Perak with lights “as big as coconuts”.
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2014/03/11/kelantan-duo-report-seeing-lights-falling-at-high-speed/
@sk999 said, “This figure looks like an earlier version of the ATSB map,…”
Excellent observation. I had no explanation as to why the route was not “straight”.
@Johan
He would probably request asylum in Australia. He didn’t want people to look at his data, he either didn’t know about possibilities of retrieving deleted data or just cared about his family not seeing it.
@StevenG:
Okay. Why not. But Australia would either extradite him (most probable) or jail him for hijacking themselves, if I am not mistaken, so he would in any event have had to plan better. It is not like his life was so miserable that it would be better spent in Australian penitentiary for some ten to fifteen years. There would be no extenuating circumstances to an Australian court, and he would have nothing to offer that would be of any value to Australia, on the contrary. He would spend his time in maximum/high security prisons in either Malaysia or Australia, together with drive-by shooters and liquer store robbers and arsenists I’d assume. He’d liked that. And a jolly role-model for children and friends.
He could have tried for asylum in Iran, in that direction, or North Korea. No one else would have taken him, I think. That would be encouraging the worst psycho-cases to follow after. To me, if he planned a hijack, he wouldn’t have had to hide anything but his face.
@StevenG:
These seems to be of currency:
http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Completed_Inquiries/jsct/5_6_september2006/report/chapter2
http://www.oecd.org/site/adboecdanti-corruptioninitiative/39364114.pdf
Even if Z would claim his crime was politically motivated (Article 3: a, b) I doubt that would fall in very fertile soil with the Aussies in this case. The only chance I see is if Z killed someone on the plane intentionally or unintentionally, since MY have a rather broad understanding and acceptance of capital punishment crimes; then AUS wouldn’t extradite to a country where the defendant is in risk of being executed. But Z would thus of course add to his sentence in AUS. But hardly to his reputation.
@sk999. Thanks for those insightful comments. I was also struck by how well-aligned the phone report and “early radar” track was with the “published” version (and your earlier digitised DTSG track).
What is not clear to me is whether the Celcom LBS produced a slant range estimate from the tower, or if the figure is showing horizontal range assuming 44,700ft alt. There is a position on the track for the phone LBS timestamp that is out of synch with the other 30s periodicity (presumed radar) that produces a kink in the track.
Would the altitude, range and speed data reconcile if altitude on radar is wrong by ~10,000ft and you adjust elevation or slant range accordingly?
Whatever this fine-tuning might produce, I’m pretty convinced that there is staggeringly-good agreement between radar path track/timing and the cellphone LBS detection.
@Johan
There is a high chance Malaysia would execute him after extradition(they are a classic dictatorship so making a reason wouldn’t be a problem) so Australia would be under huge pressure not to extradite him. As silly as it looks he’d have a good case for getting asylum after doing the jailtime (besides his daughter is in Melbourne…, so he’d have the place to stay).
Don’t forget he was fervent fan of democracy, and Australia is the nearest western-type democracy there…just too many things pointing in that direction.
New upload on scribd by user “bookofresearch”, 227 pages appendix RMP-report with detailed analysis of the mobile phonecall at Penang
https://de.scribd.com/document/335982461/MH370-RMP-Folder-Appendix-227-pages#download
Not sure if this link works without an account.
@ Nederland
I have to correct myself, when entering the search criteria also use the “100+” pages.
@StevenG:
Now you are guessing. I don’t think anyone could predict how that would have played out — Z included. Hijacking / taking hostage could for good reasons be exempt from capital punishment in Malaysia, but it would still be a very serious crime in Australia. Anyway, that is not a good way to get “closer” to your children. Geographically and emotionelly is not the same thing. Z would have understood that perfectly well. It would have been easier to migrate legally, I hope. Or simply tread ashore somewhere and build a small society on the plains. No one would notice. Least of all JORN apparently.
@StevenG:
And why would MY insist on capital punishment when they know that AUS would refuse to let him go? They would be perfectly happy with locking him up for twenty-five years.
@Nederland:
You may check out this link too.
https://mobile.twitter.com/nihonmama/status/817917604308234240
It’s interesting of all the floaters the only one near the 7th arc is also close to where they initially thought they heard a ping from the black boxes. One thing we have to keep in mind with floaters is tropical storms, and there was one not too long after the crash. Any storm can shift the float pattern around. I say the most logical place to look is near 20 degree south on the 7th arc
@StevanG, @Johan, Hijacking an aircraft, taking people hostage, kidnapping are serious offences. Australia would extradite to Malaysia with whom they have signed an extradition treaty. Extradition treaties are complex but can be negotiated, i.e, Malaysia can drop the death penalty to ensure the culprit is tried in a Malaysia court of law. ZS would have had zero grounds for political asylum and his actions would be punishable not only in Malaysia but in all countries where the passengers originated from. Any notions that ZS or anyone else would have grounds for political asylum in Australia or any other Pacific rim country are totally unfounded. Even if someone were to be convicted in Australia that person can still be extradited after completing his/her sentence to subsequently be tried again for other offences in Malaysia (acts against the King, hostage taking, kidnapping of Malaysian citizens and much more).
@StevanG @KarenK
One Reddit thread mentions ZS may not have been such a big fan of Australia due to their support of BN. Who knows, the CI theory could have been made a good story…if others were providing support, it might have been best if they did not realize loss of plane was the expected outcome.
@KarenK, @StevenG:
Yes, so although there might seem to be something to the idea of seeking asylum in a (Western) democracy for a crime that is politically motivated and has a severe punishment to it in the country of origin, one would need to think that through pretty carefully. In this particular case no boxes are checked at all. There needsto be a ground for a politically motivated crime, which there isn’t, an imminent and known risk or fact of unlawful persecution of the perp and his likes and family for their political conviction, and probably a crime related to the perp being politically active and/or without chances to have an employment — and rather not a crime considered severe by the arrival country, which, in practise at least, would have to be a country not in formal alliance with the country of origin, but, preferably, a political and military adversary. And not even rogue states would take easy the risk of losing airport rights or being removed as an airline destination for not complying with international treatises and giving away asylum to any blockhead hijacker who comes their way.
@TBill,@Johan, Article 14 of the declaration of human rights and rules of human rights law will determine if a person has ligitimate grounds for political asylum. The countries who have agreed to the UN conventions would allow people in. ZS would not qualify. Working for state owned company for more than 30 years and claim political persecution simply would not fly. ZS lived the good life in MY and he and his family were not hunted down, tortured or locked up for supporting the opposition, PKR. If he would subsequently hijack an aircraft, take people hostage and commit the act of kidnapping he could even be accused of committing a terrorist act on top of the rest. ZS would have zero grounds for political asylum unless his destination was North Korea or some other obscure (non MY ally) country. Australia would extradite him but perhaps have legal counsel draft an agreement that the death penalty is off the table. Now if ZS was gay for example, he would have more legitimate grounds to request political asylum (not by hijacking an aircraft) since in Malaysia, sodomy is considered a crime that is punishable by law.As we have seen from Australia and the ATSB as it relates to MH370, they walk on egg shells and have gloves on when dealing with MY. The interlocking of political sensitivities between AU and MY is evident.
The two satellite phone calls to MH370 were apparently made from different phones.
Anyone else finds it surprising that there were attempts by private contacts to call Zaharie’s mobile phone in the middle of the night during the flight but before the disappearence was made known? In general, there were more attempts to call the pilots’ mobile phones than the plane itself via satellite.
Re pilot hijacking/asylum seeking: despite punishments, there are records of pilots hijacking their own plane in about the same frequency that those crashing it, with asylum seeking just being one of the possible, often strange, reasons known for those incidents.
@Nederland:
There is of course no guarantee that the hijacker is smart enough to realise that he or she may have to consult a lawyer or at least an im/migation officer before trying to seek asylum, but a pilot with Z’s age and experience would have all chances to get a grip on how things work. You are obliged to know the law and a pilot in Z’s position would surely have been sufficiently knowledgeable or able to get the facts right. Jumping into unknown barrells and being content with uncertainties is something you mature away from, not least when your kids are beginning to be able to outsmart you. And it is not the typical characteristics of a commercial triple-7 airline captain of his age. And Malaysia and MAS are not the typical third world examples.
Committing extended suicide in a camouflaged way and avoiding evidence of that is extremely difficult, but doing something so out of the ordinary as hijacking a plane with 238 really really really pissed off passengers and colleagues and practically surviving all uncontrollable after effects of such an act — including a ten to fifteen years’ sentence — for a balding, painkiller-eating fifty-three-year-old with a broken and fixated vertebra and no transfered riches (apparently) in a foreign country, is simply inconceivable.
@Johan
As said before, I don’t think asylum-seeking was a motive. For suicide, there is no motive either. I’m more inclined to look at it from a political angle, but again I don’t see how that is aligned with suicide, especially since there is no history of psychological issues or evidence for radicalisation. At the end of the day, it’s like rubbing a crystal ball, and while Z may be the prime supect, it is still possible something else happened.
Check out a few other cases:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_334
http://web.archive.org/web/20080321171516/http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9810/28/hijack.china.taiwan.02/index.html
and Ethiopian 702, few weeks before.
Btw, was there not a news report on Z sending money to his daughter in Australia?
@KarenK
All you elaborate is ‘evident’ only to yourself.
You include no facts, no evidence, only all kinds of suspicion towards MY and others.
Trying to manipulate opinion towards a confirmation-bias from yourself? Or others?
Just tell what you believe happened. Stop trying to be so obviously ‘steering’ and ‘confusing’ the actual, factual discussion with ‘information’ which is not constructive at all IMO.
@Nederland:
I wasn’t addressing you so much as the question at issue. Forgive me if it appeared in that way. I was merely trying to get at that Z probably wouldn’t fit the statistics of prior “pijacks” without deadly outcome.
To me there may very well be (there is) an overall political context or situation but Z’s primary goal would still have to have been suicide (for private reasons), otherwise we would expect a non-anonymous act and evidence left behind. If there is no explicit intention by someone there can be no political act (in principle) and no example to follow… There might be political repercussions — if clues make it more or less obvious to those involved what happened and more or less why — but it might be hard to say where that will lead. And to me that would not alone be enough of a motive for Z. He wasn’t radicalized in the way an islamist would be, but it is not impossible that the election process radicalized him some, politically, in fact I think you might say it did and that election processes to some extent are about that / are meant to do that to people, and some processes more than others.
I agree there is still other possibilities, but I wouldn’t say it is like rubbing a crystal ball. I wouldn’t be here if it was. It is about weighing the arguments and the facts and whatever to arrive at something that holds together. If it doesn’t make a case that would appear in or stick in court is not principally the issue any more. It is about getting as close as is humanly possible. There is a certain risk that will be the best we can get. But I wouldn’t want to discourage anyone from investigating other, fruitful, leads. Experience tells me that is almost impossible.
@Nederland
I am thinking the two sat calls during the flight were from MAS. VictorI points out a series of calls before/after flight from a flight engineer.
Funny ZS using cell phone a minute before take off. Who knew after the flight crew tells the PAX to turn off cell phones, the pilots are in there on their cell phones.
@Ge Rijn, if you are well read and versed on law and other matters it would be evident to you as well. It is clearly beyond your comprehension levels. Nothing posted was not based on fact and general knowledge.
@Nederland:
Interesting cases btw. But the summary in the second seems to be revealing:
“Before long-standing tensions between Taiwan and mainland China eased in the 1980s, Taiwan treated hijackers from China leniently, and even showered them with gold and cash rewards.
But the 16 hijackers arrested in the 1990s have all been jailed for up to 10 years. Two of them were paroled and sent back to China.”
If Z was not allowed to emigrate and had negotiated unofficially with AUS beforehand, then there would be something. But I can’t see AUS or U.S. sponsoring a “defection” by way of a MAS airliner and crashing international agreements. Wouldn’t that throw MY into the arms of China? And get AUS a lot of worries?
Yes I believe the story was that Z did have plans for the future, but cancelled now, according to the family. Buying a house, money was wired I believe, and moving possibly after retirement. I am not sure MY can or would make public the families’ financial transactions between them but I expect them to be able to look into that. The sum would be revealing to MY’s IRS of course. I am not sure about how well Z earned and what that would be worth in AUS, but I don’t think he as a family provider could be considered to be finacially independent.
@Johan
No worries.
Let’s assume for a second it was Z (but we don’t know for sure – if he deleted files, including passwords and suspicious flight simulations the day he went on to fly MH370, then that may raise an eyebrow or two, but it’s not a proof either).
Then the above mentioned Air China 905 seems to be the closest point of comparison:
“Yuan Bin admitted he diverted the Boeing 737 to Taiwan because he was displeased with Air China’s policies and his pay.”
According to his social network accounts, Z was disgruntled with MAS because they were allegedly involved in transporting illegal voters from overseas to influence the election outcome. He also mentioned unfavourable pay installments. On top of that, there was the Anwar Ibrahim trial.
You say that Z did not claim responsibility in advance, but how could he, if he planned to claim responsibility after landing? You wouldn’t want to claim responsibilty before the hijack, you want to wait until it’s done. Otherwise you are unlikely to proceed with the hijack in the first place, especially since Z seems to have been concerned about his political activities being monitored by authorities.
You then mention the possibility of private reasons encouraging him to commit suicide in this way, but you are aware that there is no evidence for this. On the contrary, all that is known (including Jeff’s posting above) rules out any such motive. And if he was politically radicalised (again there is no evidence to back it up) AND as insanse as to make a point of his support of democratic values by committing mass murder, then why not leave a note to make your goals clear to the world?
Last but not least, it is unprecedented to follow through with such a deadly plan for hours on end, all suicidal pilots were keen to find their end once they were in control of the plane, so that’s another inconsistency that needs to be addressed imo.
@KarenK
I won’t argue what you post is not referring to real laws and general knowledge about it. I argue your general knowledge and laws do not apply to MH370 the way you try to present them.
What you try to elobarate can not serve to find the plane IMO.
You, like others, have already stept into the trial before any convincing evidence of the plane or a culprit has been found.
IMO we should still concentrate on finding the plane first.
@Johan
That particular case is from 1998, so this pilot seems to have been aware of the likelihood of a 10 years or so prison sentence.
@Ge Rijn, My posts were in response to StefanG and Johan on the same subject matter. A very interestingg subject as it pertains to asylum potential of ZS. It was not a reply to you. This blog is not about what I believe, but about factual information and data. Read the posts carefully and do not respond if you don’t understand them in their proper context.
Interesting article, some may have paywall issues, I had one free look at it.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/hope-of-finding-missing-flight-mh370-all-but-gone/news-story/38fc2ca8e58c11cecb5d76a0ce093a5a
Former NTSB says many equally valid potential causes and no way to determine which cause is most likely. Not sure I agree, but he paints a bleak picture for finding plane and resolving the cause.
@KarenK
You’re responces are on a forum. Therefore I feel free to respond. If you want to have privat chats with someone there are other ways I don’t consider. For this we have our respected moderator to regulate.
I read almost all posts carefully. And yours stand out to me as very speculative based on political presumptions not directly related to MH370.
A political asylum for ZS in AU is far beyond any criterium now that could help anyone to find the plane. It has no use.
It’s just stirring up distraction away from facts. I understand your context very well thank you.
@Ge Rijn, You must be illiterate, there is nothing speculative about any posts. The posts were all about political asylum as posted by others to which I responded. You are truly ignorant, jump tto conclusions, do not read properly and I stopped assessing there tbh. most of your posts are non readable anyway.
@Ge Rijn, You were the one making a big deal out of the twin towers on ZS hard drive. Ready to keel haul ZS. Don’t be so sanctimonious and attack yourself first on non factual attacks, opposed to attacking others who are simply addressing a certain topic. Grow a brain.
@Nederland:
Thanks for your question. Proof is what makes the answer to a question unquestionably true. That is hard to come by but depends at least on your question. In a court, a prosecutor will need that, or a confession, or he may consider not going to court, for failure of having a case. That doesn’t mean that the house didn’t burn down mysteriously and conveniently for X. You know that.
Erasing passwords etc. on the day of a previous mh370 flight (the only in a year?) is of course looking like more than a coincidence, but one should perhaps also ask if and why and how he would be benefitted at all by doing something like that. We do things in the last minute because we have a checklist that we are checking off, that is not actualized earlier for other things we do, or because we are doing related things (paying bills, checking an e-mail account) (on the computer) at the same time. If I was planning on spending ten years in an AUS prison, I would simply trash or reformat the hard drive. There would be no reason for hiding that act. If he wasn’t sure he could pull it off at an exact date, and wanted to return to an undestructed hard drive, he could have made sure he had his sensitive personal logins etc on a USB stick or a laptop. And then done away with or erased the harddrives in whatever way. But since his children didn’t live at home and his wife and maid probably didn’t use his sim when he was away, it doesn’t seem likely he would have needed to erase everything concerning the preplanning of the hijack from those harddrives. Of which I am pretty sure there would be some traces. He would have been content with emptying the trashbin wouldn’t he? Why would he care his wife or the police could see his planning afterwards? If he wanted his wife not to be able to reach his (personal) accounts, wouldn’t there be ways to achieve that anyway?
I am not saying Z should have claimed responsibility in advance, that would not be a good idea. But as soon as he would declare the plane hijacked, it’s undeniably him and what’s on his harddrive is hardly important. (Even if they seized them all during the night I can’t see they would have had time to get anything out them which they could use or which he couldn’t have protected himself against.) I can’t see him waiting until he has landed on CI. It is way too risky to lock 238 people out and hoping for the best. Several might die of heart failure or other medical reasons. Someone might have responded completely irrational. They might have been shot at. Someone more than the FO would likely have connected over Penang. He must have told the same story I suggested he told anyway (emergency return and landing attempt) — but what would he have done to the FO then? Killed him? No good way to start an immigration form. Tied him in the cockpit? Nah. What may be manageable if you are not planning on staying alive, is a whole lot riskier, not to say close to impossible if you are just as responsible for everyone’s wellbeing as if it was a regular flight where everyone is strictly keeping to the rules. On an international flight, he’d be paying damages for the rest of his life too on top of the prison time. His insurance wouldn’t cover that, for some reason. His children and wife would love that and visit him in jail every day to remind him.
About the China-Taiwan pijackings see my earlier posts. China and Taiwan is in effect not two different countries (if either of them had the only say) but one and the same. It is defacto two states but in principle one nation (but many Chinese citizens would no doubt nuance that). It is like East and West Germany if you like, or Quebec and France or Åland and Sweden (I am joking some): if one “defects” from one place to the other, of course they would be helped, and where else could they be expected to go? They are coming “home”.
You can’t rule out suicide, especially when you say there are other possibilities. You can’t say what is in someone’s mind, and despite what is claimed here, people who are planning on suicide do not necessarily spread the word around. For the very same reasons as you don’t claim responsibility for a hijack before passing security. It is those who want to live who tell about their suicides, not those who want to die. It’s a mind-blower, as DennisW would say.
I have tried to explain several times that commtting mass murder cannot be done in support of democratic values (and technically, and juridicallly, taking hostage on an international flight is as I have tried to say above, coming dangerously close to mass murder — actualizing also the fact that MY can use the death penalty for manslaughter or unintended killings — and, to be even more clear, it should be evident to each and everyone that already a hijacking of a plane (apart from perhaps the milkplane to Melbourne), i.e. exerting the threat of imminent death over fellow human beings, is not in accordance with a supoort for democratic values. And Z was not in a situation in MY, nor was any other Malaysian citizens, so that he could claim any form of rightousness for taking things in that direction. If he thought he was doing something for the political culture in MY he was most certainly bewildered. If he wanted to go to AUS I would recommend emigration. He had no case.
But that does not mean he was not seriously pissed off with the authorities and the election process. And that it had radicalized him. But I should perhaps add radicalized him emotionally or mentally rather than politically. It is in the end not a political act, it is a suicide and a revenge (for something), most likely then. An act instead of acting politically. But like any workplace or school shooting, there may be political effects. Or not. But Z apparently preferred to try to protect his children from the social heritage of being children to a mass murderer, to wanting to go down in history as a raving madman known to all. So every part of his plan — which he in effect could control the results of — would be about avoiding all kinds of incriminating evidence. That he could master.
But there will perhaps always be a “tell”, especially the harder you try? Schematically, at least, the mid-south South Indian Ocean would not be the typical final resting place for an aircraft with technical failure; it would not be it for the average islamist, for whom it would be a detour to God and Paradise and lacking of Western phallic symbolism; it would be a detour also for those who have tried to survive but without anyone caring or listening or being able to help, and who cannot bear to stay alive any longer. But it would be a typical end of the line for a modern, secular, westernized somewhat educated flying captain and flight sim nerd and family provider who wanted to make his plane disappear without a trace and had all the time in the world, but apparently little long-term future (for himself) as he saw it.
Please forgive the length of last post.
@TBill, Good article. Indeed a bleak outlook. The search will end very soon and thats the end of it all, unless another benefactor stands up and swallows the cost. We may never know what really happened but apart from a select few, most dont care.
@Johan
“It would have been easier to migrate legally, I hope. ”
His goal wasn’t to (only) migrate, but to embarrass his government in front of the world(which he partly did even if he failed to reach the destination).
I never said the plan was perfect, but I can see why it could look good to an enraged person like he was those days.
Turkish policeman that assassinated russian ambassador had much worse plan with almost no chance of survival and still went for it, human mind can sometimes act very strange especially when politics is involved.
@Ge Rijn, @KarenK:
I feel it is necessary to respond to you two despite me talking much too much here already. I apologize if I have contributed to instigating something unknowingly. I will be pretty occupied the rest of this week so I have my chance now.
From my point of view, I can’t see KarenK was wrong in her response. And it was ScottG and me who began. Discussing extradition laws and practise is not about something that won’t be actualized prior to a court case, it is about what a hijacker could predict about his chances of succeeding with his plans.
When it comes to the work of ATSB amd MY, I have stopped judging, partly from lack of expertise, but I am grateful others haven’t. I actually don’t know exactly what the “interlocking of political sensitivities between AU and MY is evident” (KaK) means, but I think it safe to say that both MY and ATSB have a lot of different opinions they need to stroke along the hairs. And that there will be difficulties bridgeing many differences in a case like this. But being too far distant from both political scenes, it is impossible for me to really judge what is going on.
It is sad if the efforts now end to no avail, but this story will never completely disappear from view of finding attempts or human memory. In that sense this it is just a beginning.
@KarenK
“@TBill, Good article. Indeed a bleak outlook. The search will end very soon and thats the end of it all, unless another benefactor stands up and swallows the cost. We may never know what really happened but apart from a select few, most dont care.”
Only someone sucking on a government teat would be dumb enough to spend money searching based on the available data. The likely candidate governments are all bailing. If the US steps up to fund search efforts I will go f’ing ballistic.
@Dennis W. I don’t entirely share your view that the entire problem is so under-constrained. It seems to me that there are numerous methods/approaches of pinning this particular bar of soap to the floor even without resorting to BFO over-analysis. I’m of the view that even with existing set of evidence it is possible to find an analytic solution with a high level of confidence. Working on it 😉
@Paul
With all due respect, I am not holding my breath. BTW, Occam’s razor (funny shit, actually) does not cut it with me, but you probably already know that.
@StevanG:
It is true and I agree, but I still think that if this was merely an act of rage and a hijacking, he would have left all the evidence laying around that we now are missing. And been more nervous on the cctv.
I don’t know of the family status or religious or ethnic orientation of the Turkish policeman, but people tend to be held back by the thought of damaging the lives of their own offspring through their deed. Not everyone realises the harm they are doing, some will believe they are doing a good deed (when it is not), others believe they have nothing more to give or are superfluos, but the point is it will differ from case to case. But the risk group for (public) political assasinations would also be a risk group for suicide, and vice versa. But it is not a river flowing in only one direction. And there is much that is simply stupid things done when temporarily deranged. But a person like Z does not fit into the image of someone doing something lightheartedly or casually or without being in control of what he could have been in control of. He is less likely a hijacker to me (on a flight like this) than a sim nerd with a death wish (as above).
@Johan,
No, suicide can not be ruled out, but all possible motives mentioned so far seem at best to be invented. This means I’m personally more careful here. And it does not exactly look like avoiding all suspicion when you sign off without repeating the radio frequency just before you disappear. I mean it’s not like there are no websites discussing the suicide theory as more or less established knowledge or newspapers publishing all sorts of stories on the suicide theory (and a hijacking with no crash is still very different imo). What I fail to see is a clear precedent historically where behaviour like this occured and it was suicide. This is just my opinion of course.
@All
Here’s a NYT article excerpt debunking the myth that mass murder suiciders must have some serious psychiatric disorder that would not be able to be hidden.
I’ll post the link to the actually article in my next post, provided our host allows for me to do so. From the 2015 article:
Yet mental health experts who study mass murder-suicides said that depression and thoughts of suicide, which are commonplace, fall far short of explaining such drastic and statistically rare acts.
“People want an easily graspable handle to help understand this, to blame something or scapegoat,” said Dr. James L. Knoll, the director of forensic psychiatry at the State University of New York Upstate Medical University.
But to zero in on depression is “a low-yield dead end,” he said, adding, “There’s something fundamentally different here, aside and apart from the depression, and that’s where we need to look.”
Serious mental illness, studies of mass killers suggest, is a prime driver in a minority of cases — about 20 percent, according to estimates by several experts. Far more common are distortions of personality — excesses of rage, paranoia, grandiosity, thirst for vengeance or pathological narcissism and callousness.
“The typical personality attribute in mass murderers is one of paranoid traits plus massive disgruntlement,” said Dr. Michael Stone, a forensic psychiatrist in New York who recently completed a study of 228 mass killers, many of whom also killed themselves.
“They want to die, but to bring many others down with them, whether co-workers, bosses, family members or just plain folk who are in the vicinity.”