Yesterday Twitter user @nihonmama released the first two folders from the secret Malaysian police report into MH370. Some parts relating to Zaharie’s flight simulator had been released earlier, but the bulk of this material is coming into public view for the first time. Here is “Folder 1: Pilot” and here is “Folder 2: Co-pilot.”
I was particularly interested in the section containing the psychological evaluation of the pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, found on page 111. As it is in Malaysian, I had to type it into Google Translate to make any sense of it. As I have absolutely no understanding of Malaysian I am copying it and pasting it below without any changes. Corrections welcome!
Hon. Datuk Mazlan bin Mansor
Deputy Director (Intelligence / Operations),
CID,
Royal Malaysian Police,
Bukit Aman,
50560, Kuala LumpurHon. Dato ‘
Expertise help the Ministry of Health in Malysia Investigation Missing MH370: The study “Psychosocial and Behavioural Pattern” crew MH370.
Letter from Hon. Dato ‘no. ref: JSJ KPN (PR) 35/3 dated July 3, 2014 and the terms of reference of the assessment panel “behavioral pattern and psychosocial crew of MH370 is referenced.
2. The sub-committee meeting between Kiraja Malaysia Police (PDRM) and KementerianKesihatan (MOH) was held in Room Mesyusarat, Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta, Perak on 7 July 2014. The purpose of this meeting was to obtain an independent report (independent) The above assessment.
3. Here is the panel sub-committee has been established.
[The letter lists three officials from the Ministry of Health and six officials from the Royal Malaysian Police]
4. Assessment conducted on flight MH370 pilot Captain Zaharia Ahmad Shah and co-pilot, en. Fariq Ab. Hamid, have been guided by reference listed:
i. Quoting witnesses related conversations pilot, Captain Zaharia Ahmad Shah, total of 40 person which includes 5 members, 20 co-workers, friends WeChat 9 and 6 public witnesses.
ii. Quoting witnesses related conversations pilot, Mr. Fariq Ab. Hamid total of 9 people including 3 members of the family, his girlfriend, and five colleagues.
iii. Quotes clips CCTV video at KLIA’s movement, patterns of behavior and expression on the face (facial expression) Zaharie co-pilot En. Fariq before their flight dated 07.03.2014.
iv. Quotes CCTV video clips KLIA Zaharie on 26.02.2014 before his flight to Denpasar, Indonesia and on 03.03.2014 before his flight to Melbourne, Australia.
v. Medical reports Zaharie.5. Based on these reference sources, we have studied the background Zaharie including education, personality and coping (coping style), relationship with spouse, children, family members, friends and colleagues, including his interests and hobbies. Attention has also been given to her relationship with her maid. His physical health problems are investigated including asthma and diseases of the spine, which caused him to have to take treatment drugs painkillers “analgesics.” Religious and political tendencies he observed.
6. We also reviewed the background of the co-pilot Mr. Fariq including education, personality, relationships with family members, friends and colleagues.
7. Highlights are as follows:
7.1 In the field of career, Zaharie is an experienced pilot and a competent and respected by peers.
7.2 Available Zaharie not share the same interests with his family members. However, the difference in interest is acceptable. His family was also not reported any change of pattern of behavior (behavioral pattern) before his flight was on 07/03/2014.
7.3 Information from friends and colleagues Zaharie show that he was a friendly, warm and jokes. They are also not reported any change of pattern of behavior before his flight was on 03/07/2014.
7.4 Problems spinal pain he was a fairly chronic physical problems rather than a new stressor.
7.5 Review of comparisons based recording video clips CCTV KLIA on 26.02.2014, 03.03.2014 and 03.07.2014, found him tending to smoke before her flight and movements of his time smoking was similar in all three videos. At KLIA CCTV video clip on 03/07/2014, Zaharie not show any sign of anxiety or depression.
Finally, we have not found, any changes in terms of psychological, social and behavioral patterns Zaharie Ahman Shah before his flight was on 03/07/2014. We also did not find any demolition of psychological, social and behavioral patterns of co-pilot En. Fariq Ab Hamid before his flight was on 03/07/2014.
Thank you.
“CARING, TEAMWORK PROFESSIONALISM AND WE ARE WORKING CULTURE”
I who am following orders,
Dr. HJH. RABA’IAH BINTI MOHD. sALLEH
MMC NO: 25878
Director & Consultant Psychiatry (Forensic)
Special Grade “C”
Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta
Perak Darul Ridzuan
I find this to be a truly remarkable document. We’ve been hearing rumors that the investigation found no evidence that suggested Zaharie could have a psychological predilection for suicide/mass murder, but here it is at last in black and white, with details such as the fact that his pattern of smoking before a flight was unchanged before MH370. It is hard to imagine that anyone contemplating his own imminent death could exhibit such sang froid.
Indeed, I don’t think there has ever been a case where someone who is known to have carried out such an act had such an outward appearance of being balanced and well-adjusted. Andreas Lubitz, for example, had experienced years of psychological upheaval trouble, at one point temporarily washing out from Lufthansa’s flight training program, before destroying Germanwings 9525.
In my estimation this psych evaluation must be regarded as powerful evidence that Zaharie did not hijack MH370.
After the jump, the letter in the original Malay, as re-typed by me from the report.
YBhg. Datuk Mazlan bin Mansor
Timbalan Pengarah (Risikan/Operasi),
Jabatan Siasatan Jenayah,
Polis Diraja Malaysia,
Bukit Aman,
50560, Kuala Lumpur
YBhg. Dato’,
Bantuan Kepakaran Kementerian Kesihatan Malysia dalam Siasatan Kehilangan MH370: Kajian “Behavioural Pattern dan Psikososial” krew MH370.
Surat daripada YBhg. Dato’ no. ruj: JSJ KPN (PR) 35/3 bertarikh 3 Julai 2014 dan terma rujukan utama panel pengkajian “behavioural pattern dan psikososial krew pesawat MH370 adalah dirujuk.
2. Mesyuarat sub-committee antara Polis Kiraja Malaysia (PDRM) dan KementerianKesihatan Malaysia (KKM) telah diadakan di Bilik Mesyusarat, Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta, Perak pada 7 Julai 2014. Tujuan mesyuarat ini diadakan adalah untuk mendapatkan satu laporan yang berkecuali (independent) di atas penilaian tersebut.
3. Berikut adalah panel sub-committee yang telah ditubuhkan.
4. Penilaian yang dijalankan terhadap juruterbang pesawat MH370 Kapten Zaharie Ahmad Shah dan pembantu juruterbang, en. Fariq Ab. Hamid, telah berpandukan sumber rujukan yang tersenarai:
i. Petikan percakapan saksi berkaitan juruterbang, Kapten Zaharie Ahmad Shah, sejumiah 40 orag yang merangkumi 5 orang ahli keluarga, 20 orang rakan sekerja, 9 orang rakan WeChat dan 6 orang saksi awam.
ii. Petikan percakapan saksi berkaitan pembantu juruterbang, En. Fariq Ab. Hamid sejumlah 9 orang yang merangkumi 3 orang ahli keluarga, teman wanita beliau, dan 5 orang rakan sekerja.
iii. Petikan klip-klip video CCTV di KLIA mengenai pergerakan, corak tingkah laku dan mimik muka (facial expression) Kapten Zaharie bersama pembantu juruterbang En. Fariq sebelum penerbangan mereka yang bertarikh 7.3.2014.
iv. Petikan klip-klip video CCTV KLIA Kapten Zaharie pada 26.2.2014 sebelum penerbangan beliau ke Denpasar, Indonesia dan pada 3.3.2014 sebelum pnerbangan beliau ke Melbourne, Australia.
v. Laporan perubatan Kapten Zaharie.
5. Berpandukan sumber rujukan tersebut, kami telah mengkaji latar belakang Kapten Zaharie termasuk pendidikan, personaliti dan daya tindak (coping style), perhubungan dengan isteri, anak-anak, ahli keluarga, kawan-kawan dan rakan sejawat termasuk minat dan hobi beliau. Perhatian juga telah diberi kepada perhubungan beliau dengan pembantu rumahnya. Masalah kesihatan fizikal beliau juga diteliti termasuk penyakit asma dan penyakit tulang belakang yang menyebabkan beliau perlu mengambil rawatan ubat-ubatan penahan sakit “analgesics.” Kecenderungan keagamaan dan politik beliau juga diamati.
6. Kami juga telah mengkaji latar belakang pembantu juruterbang En Fariq termasuk pendidikan, personaliti, perhubungan dengan ahli keluarga, kawan-kawan dan rakan sejawat.
7. Rumusan kami adalah seperti berikut:
7.1 Di bidang kerjaya, Kapten Zaharie adalah seorang juruterbang yang berpengalaman dan kompeten serta dihormati oleh rakan sejawat.
7.2 Didapati Kapten Zaharie tidak berkongsi minat yang sama dengan ahli keluarga beliau. Walau bagaimanpun, perbezaan minat ini adalah sesuatu yang boleh diterima. Keluarga beliau juga tidak melapurkan apa-apa perubahan dari corak tingkah laku (behavioural pattern) sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014.
7.3 Maklumat dari kawan-kawan dan rakan sejawat Kapten Zaharie menunjukkan bahawa beliau merupakan seorang yang peramah, mesra dan boleh berlawak jenaka. Mereka juga tidak melapurkan apa-apa perubahan dari corak tingkah laku sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014.
7.4 Masalah sakit tulang belakang beliau merupakan satu masalah fizikal yang agak kronik dan bukannya merupakan suatu stressor baru.
7.5 Kajian berpandukan perbandingan rakaman klip-klip video CCTV KLIA pada tarikh 26.2.2014, 3.3.2014 dan 7.3.2014, mendapati beliau cenderung merokok sebelum pnerbangan beliau dan gerak-geri beliau semasa merokok adalah sama di ketiga-tiga video tersebut. Pada klip video CCTV KLIA pada 7.3.2014, Kapten Zaharie tidak menunjukkan apa-apa tanda kegelisahan ataupun kemurungan.
Akhir kata, kami tidak mendapati, apa-apa perubahan dari segi psikologi, sosial dan corak tingkah laku Kapten Zaharie Ahman Shah sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014. Kami juga tidak mendapati apa-apa perubuhan dari segi psikologi, social dan corak tingkah laku pembantu juruterbang En. Fariq Ab Hamid sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014.
Akhir kata, kami tidak mendapati, apa-apa perubahan dari segi psikologi, sosial dan corak tingkah laku Kapten Zaharie Ahman Shah sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014. Kami juga tidak mendapati apa-apa perubuhan dari segi psikologi, social dan corak tingkah laku pembantu juruterbang En. Fariq Ab Hamid sebelum penerbangan beliau pada 7.3.2014.
Sekian, terima kasih.
“PENYAYANG, PROFESSIONALISM DAN KERJA BERPASUKAN ADALAH BUDAYA KERJA KITA”
Saya yang menurut perintah,
Dr. HJH. RABA’IAH BINTI MOHD. SALLEH
MMC NO : 25878
Pengarah & Pakar Perunding Psikiatri (Forensik)
Gred Khas “C”
Hospital Bahagia Ulu Kinta
Perak Darul Ridzuan
@MH
You really do need to move out of your parent’s house.
@Nederland:
I read it now (FI). It says he renewed his fit-for-flying certificate regularly (every six months) after having been cleared to fly by mid 2007. But that is not in the records in the PR of course.
Judging from his ebook lecture preferences Z seems to have had a pretty finalistic world-view when reading for leisure. I wonder if he had the same expectations on reality.
@dennisw – at least I didn’t have to pay your normal rates for such advice.
I think we are making progress. We know that the RMP report found nothing suspicious about the crew. We also now know that French investigators found nothing suspicious about any passengers. So rather than be distracted by the possibility of a hijack, we can focus our attention on what failure on a B777 would lead to a disabled transponder, disable all communication, force the aircraft to make several turns, follow waypoints along an airway, cause the SATCOM to log-on after being non-functional for an hour, turn south, and yet have the capability to fly another 6 hours until all the fuel is exhausted.
@VictorI
You could add: “And achieve book endurance while doing so!”
Progress indeed.
Interesting that the French have investigated passengers and crew. But what I’d really like to see is a full, publicly released, report on that flaperon, including flotation in seawater, damage analysis, chemical analysis, barnacle analysis, serial numbers, whether its the original on the aircraft, whether its a replacement etc.. I suppose we have Buckley’s chance of getting this.
Thanks very much to you Jeff for all the detail you have provided so far. The provenance and condition of the flaperon is crucial IMO. Does anyone know whether the French still have it?
@Victorl
You think we making progress ? No. We must read the whole RMP-Report, not just selected documents from it.
@VictorI @Matt M
So I am still thinking Mag heading after discontinuity (per Honeywell?) is quite controversial if true. I know they said it could be True or Mag, but Mag probably would be the likely flight mode after a discontinuity, which throws a monkey wrench in a great many “straight” path predictions. Or does True heading still prevail after a discontinuity, for some reason, as ATSB has assumed all along?
And why wouldn’t ATSB or Boeing throw us a bone and answer this technical question for us?
PS- if it is Mag, VictorI then the PMDG poeple are wrong and might be interested.
@DennisW
“You really do need to move out of your parent’s house.”
This has nothing to do with MH370.
What you are doing is using psychopath’s ruletechnique.
Thinking about psychology related to Z and a possible crash-destination it just might be he unwillingly left a clue..
He broke his spine in 2007 causing him chronical pain and chronic uncertainty about his career. A big stress-factor I would say.
A broken back also can serve as a metaphor for a man who’s spirit is broken.
‘Broken Ridge’ as an almost perfect hiding place then could also have served him as a methaphor for his fysical/mental state and symbolically chosen as the end-destination for his act and his live.
It’s just a guess an ordinary guess.
“Malaysian Airlines flight 370 is a Government-sponsored Mass Murder and Cover, on a grander scale than Putin #MH17 and Gaddafi PA103.”
https://plus.google.com/115700015494779068942/posts/4Vz2PAUmWnA
@VictorI. Rhetoric in favour of this being a suicide does not make it so. I for one would agree that the aircraft was flown back over the Peninsula, up the Strait and turned south but that is all.
The mistake in your summary of the French findings, that background checks clear the passengers when they had investigated both passengers and crew (as noted by AM2) might be an oversight. Still, as it stands, it gives the impression of bias. The report you quoted included, “……. confirmation of the absence of suspicion on the profiles of passengers and crew members after “a screening which proved negative” by the Directorate General of Security (DGSI), a source close to the survey told AFP.”
Also, the lawyer for Wattrelos said, ‘…praised the examining magistrates for their “remarkable” work’. https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/33736965/mh370-no-suspicions-of-crew-passengers-says-french-probe/#page1.
It could be of course that the DGSI was not fully informed.
That aside, as to whether the Malaysians remained active on this, a possible clue:
Mozambique Airlines Embraer ERJ 190-100 IGW flight 29th November, 2013, was an apparent suicide. See 3.2.1 p36 of the Namibian final investigation report dated 30th March 2016.See 3.2.1 p36.
http://www.mwt.gov.na/documents/98944/247608/LAM+470+final+2016/c668e830-43be-4116-bd4a-089796adba6e
I notice that the Malaysian Director-General of Civil Aviation apparently travelled to Namibia, on Africa’s west coast, a few days after the report’s release, during a visit to collect debris.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbV3li9vAso
@TBill
The truth is the ATSB ware looking for any autopilot mode that satisfies and supports their chosen search area. If magnetic heading supports the proposed 25,000 km search area, then that’s what they will concentrate on. But the problem for them is that magnetic heading is a reluctant bride.
Within a year of the disappearance, Z. was only once scheduled for a return leg from Kuala Lumpur to Peking, on 21-22/2/2014, flight MH370/371. On the return leg, he was flying the 9M-MRO.
It is perhaps worth noting that files were deleted from his FSX the day before, on 20/2/2014.
@Ge Rijn:
I have thought about that too and I know you have brought it up before. There is a psychological appeal in that, also as a kind of message to his family that his broken back would be the (other) reason why he did it. The weaker sides to it are that it is a bit obvious on the one hand and a place where research and possibly fishermen and trench measurers and other curious would perhaps rather go sooner ot later anyway on the other. It is admittedly huge, and it is perhaps not likely that anyone else than systematic seabed scanners would accidentally run into something, but I would hold it as probable that Z could have realised that it could be better to hide a tree in a forest than in a field — if you see what I mean. That’s why I am initially skeptic to Dordrecht too, although big enough to hide Luxembourg and a piece of the Netherlands.
The next issue that comes to mind in that respect is of course what shape Z thought the plane would be in at its dwrelling place. There drifting directions could be as important as the location as such. Where would it be better to place a more or less intact hull and where would it be better to place smithereens, engines and blackboxes and what may have survived in terms of their original (substantial) size and sunk on the spot. I must say that whether intended or not, it is hard to think that someone could be more successful in terms of making a triple-7 split up in pieces and disappear than what we are seeing here. The debris is scarce and relatively small and belated by more than a year, debris field was not spotted after disappearance despite immense efforts, a hull in greater (or smaller) pieces is obviously not within the searched areas (but I’ll be damned if they can guarantee that). I wonder if someone will be able to calculate impact forces on hull pieces and wing pieces, respectively, and be able to draw conclusions on the speeds at impact.
@TBill said, “PS- if it is Mag, VictorI then the PMDG poeple are wrong and might be interested.”
Yes, I agree. I opened a support ticket with PMDG several days ago suggesting that the model behavior at an EOR is different than what Honeywell claims the behavior should be. I have not yet received a response. I’ll let you know if I do.
@Jeff:
The fact that Z would have known very well that there were cameras everywhere at the airport would have prepared him for that long in advance. Judging from his apparition on the photo at the head of your article, he would have taken as much care to uphold appearances when smoking etc. on any given day, regardless of what was going on in his mind. I can agree that something else would have been much more likely and what to expect, but I don’t find it impossible to think that he could have kept his face straight. (Without having seen those cctv vids of course.) Rather it may be that this should be indicative of how he related to what he was about to do. Like a visit to the bank or something.
Taken together with abscence of other hard evidence where you might expect such, I admit that the case against him is surprisingly weak. But perhaps the lack of some things (personal computer/s hard drive history? — I don’t know the state of things there really good) should raise some suspiscion too.
On 20/2/2014, Z. apparently deleted all or most of his passwords in a single text file, such as for email, social media, bank accounts and mobile phones, before he went on to sign in for MH370 flight to Bejing later that day (p. 201-2). Some of his social media accounts have since been deleted.
@all
Mike Chillit is suggesting Australia might be asking USA Trump admin for search help. It does seem with the French report and search wrapping up, there is a sense of closing the current approach and passing the baton (we hope).
@KarenK
you said “process of elimination” to define causes, which is an interesting thought. How does that work for air accidents? NTSB probably uses that approach.
I know in medicine, if you faint, that could be the natural body reflex or a medical problem. So they give you a bunch of tests, and if no problems, then is assumed you had a simple reflex. But there is not 100% closure.
@AM2, As far as I know the French still have the flaperon.
Worth nothing btw: “On Friday, Malaysian Transport Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said the hunt would end in two weeks. Liow did not specify a date but said a tripartite meeting will be held after a final report is released when the 120,000 sq km search ends.”
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/01/07/mh370-no-suspicions-of-crew-pasengers/
I had assumed, grumpily, that they would avoid issuing a final report.
@Jeff
“…they would avoid issuing a final report” Yes, I thought that too. As ATSB kept mentioning that the search would be “suspended” I assumed that a final report could be delayed indefinitely. Anyway, I’m not hopeful of much new detail from MY.
Clive Irving of the Daily Beast seems to confuse cause and effect, and drags Richard Cole into his confusion.
***
MH370 Found? Searchers Race to New Site
With time running out, the vessel looking for the jet dashes north to the area where scientists say it went down, suggesting that something significant has shown up.
***
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/07/mh370-found-searchers-race-to-new-site.html?via=desktop&source=twitter
@all,
According to Richard Cole, Fugro Equator has steamed 325 km at top speed to the NE and is now “mowing the lawn” 19 NM on the inside of the 7th Arc North of 36S. They departed their spot-checking work down south on 5 January and are now apparently following the AUV as it expands the tow-fish scanned area. I expect they will try to cover as much of the strip between the previously scanned area out to ~25 NM inside the zero elevation arc as possible. This move reminds me of a “Hail Mary” pass in American football. In two weeks they cannot cover all the new area between 36S and 32S. It will be interesting to see if they turn around at ~34.5S, which is the northern limit for covering both Dr. Griffin’s drift study results and my Constant True Heading route.
I have been corresponding with ATSB regularly over the past several weeks, and they have been helpful in making refinements to my predicted location. Just to reiterate, this CTH route is the only one (without a loiter or multiple FMTs) fitting the BTO/BFO/tailwind/crosswind errors with a PDA which matches 9M-MRO’s engines. The route makes a single turn southward at 18:37 to ANOKO, where an End of Route error occurs. At the same time a constant KIAS Holding speed is set. Interestingly, it also passes about 4 NM west of Kate Tee at 18:46. Possibly 9M-MRO was the first aircraft she saw just before her sailboat tacked. She described this aircraft as having a white, probably flashing light, at approximately 40 degrees elevation, traveling from N to S at very high altitude. She could not see red or green navigation lights on it. This description matches my CTH route, which would have been at ~FL380 traveling at 185 degrees True.
Richard Cole’s post is here:
https://twitter.com/richard_e_cole/status/817519584739729408
@VictorI said:
“We also now know that French investigators found nothing suspicious about any passengers. ”
Remember it was reported that Russia and Ukraine did not respond to requests for background checks, so not all passengers were ‘cleared’ by their governments – there is a Russian and two Ukranians for which no replies were received.
And it certainly cannot be deduced from the above that the aircraft was not hijacked or intentionally diverted.
As LouVilla has said, we need the whole RMP report. We also need the raw Inmarsat and radar data and the originals of the items which have been ‘sealed’ by the MYG.
@TBill
It’s often about asking the right questions instead of asking for the right answers.
@Nederland said:
“On 20/2/2014, Z. apparently deleted all or most of his passwords in a single text file, such as for email, social media, bank accounts and mobile phones, before he went on to sign in for MH370 flight to Bejing later that day (p. 201-2). Some of his social media accounts have since been deleted.”
Two swallows do not a summer make. I have deleted files on a computer containing passwords at times, cancelled appointments for the next few days or weeks, and maybe (say) just before I’ve gone into town shopping. Does that make me a potential suicide bomber?
Deleting your passwords would not prevent investigators gaining access to your online accounts, so why bother?
Or could it be that it’s patently not safe to keep your online passwords in a file on your hard drive if you use a PC running Windows, even with an anti-virus and firewall – someone I know found that out the hard way a few months back when all of his online accounts were accessed due to an Excel spreadsheet on his PC containing emails/usernames/passwords being accessed.
Zaharie may simply have printed his passwords and filed them in a folder, deleting the text file on his PC afterwards.
There is another explanation possible: the RMP’s analysis based on the web browsing history found states that the simulator PC was pretty well solely used for running the FS game, with some web searches for causes of errors and crashes. He presumably had his laptop for personal web access, his passwords could have been on that (or on paper filed in that folder). Perhaps there was another laptop his wife could use as well (when he was away) that had a copy.
So why keep all of your passwords (including bank) on a PC used mostly for gaming that you don’t use very often and that you may be reinstalling Windows on from time to time?
@TBill
It’s a real meant compliment. Hope you’ve got it…
@Middleton
Well, maybe, if you took your private laptop on the same plane as the day you deleted your files and that same plane disappeared a couple of weeks later just after you signed off, then perhaps it could raise an eyebrow or two. Or maybe it is a coincidence.
Is the laptop still with Shah’s wife (or other family member)? if so hopefully the police examined the files for planning documents/etc if they have not done already.
@MH
I know it’s not a good source, but the informationen has to be from somewhere:
“Zaharie’s personal laptop was not found, and is thought to have been with him in the cockpit of the plane, the source said.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581817/Doomed-airliner-pilot-political-fanatic-Hours-taking-control-flight-MH370-attended-trial-jailed-opposition-leader-sodomite.html
The report does not mention the laptop, so this may confirm it was no longer at his home.
@TBill, @VictorI
One possibility regarding the straight path is that they quietly proceeded on the assumption that the pilot had indeed commanded the plane to the end (thus the straight path in True Track and the higher airspeeds with the possible erroneous calculation of PDA as pointed out by Bobby Ullich) and only CLAIMED to have made the judgment of incapacitation for reasons of either decorum and/or cowardice – not knowing that an entire culture of researchers like us would nitpick them like we have.
If they really wanted a path that supported an incapacitated pilot, they could have chosen something like the one shown in Victor’s 6/25/16 article ( http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/date/2016/06 ) with a MAG HDG path of a constant slow descent at a lower airspeed, landing at 31.5S and with a late FMT after a series of turns north of Aceh while they fought the airplane.
If we did get thrown a bone, it might reveal something they didn’t want their names attached to.
DrBobbyUlich said;
(Kate Tees).. “described this aircraft as having a white, probably
flashing light, at approximately 40 degrees elevation, traveling
from N to S at very high altitude. She could not see red or green
navigation lights on it.”
Accords with what this 767 pilot says a person would see;
http://aerosavvy.com/airplane-lights/#comment-14092
@Nederland
–““Zaharie’s personal laptop was not found, and is thought to have been with him in the cockpit of the plane, the source said.””
There would be nothing unusual about a pilot taking his laptop. But when you’re talking about the pilot of MH370, I do find this noteworthy.
Is this backed up anywhere else?
@Middleton
(On 20/2/2014, Z. apparently deleted all or most of his passwords in a
single
text file)..
“So why keep all of your passwords (including bank) on a PC used mostly for
gaming that you don’t use very often and that you may be reinstalling
Windows on from time to time?”
Fair point, and more so if you also assume he simply already had (or /moved)
that file on his laptop.
Wonder if the password file was in the shadow volume ?
@DrBobbyUlich
That sounds very interesting. CTH may be the way to go. CMH is much less likely a candidate, as Victor’s work suggests. The ATSB are obviously impressed by your credentials, and your fuel consumption figures. Lets hope it works a miracle.
VictorI said, “So rather than be distracted by the possibility of a hijack, we can focus our attention on what failure on a B777 would lead to a disabled transponder, disable all communication, force the aircraft to make several turns, follow waypoints along an airway, cause the SATCOM to log-on after being non-functional for an hour, turn south, and yet have the capability to fly another 6 hours until all the fuel is exhausted.”
Answer: OXYGEN BOTTLE RUPTURE IN E&E BAY!
An oxygen bottle rupture causes damage to the adjacent Left AIMS Cabinet (the left brain of the aircraft!) resulting in a MASSIVE electrical failure to 100 odd systems, sensors and switches.
The crew would be overwhelmed by failures.
The Right AIMS Cabinet (the right brain of the aircraft) would be operational, so the aircraft is capable of flying for another six hours.
But there would be a loss of;
air data for Left Transponder,
Flight ID to SDU,
Left ARINC 629 Bus (no communications possible since audio management unit now inoperative),
Left HGA (mounted on left side of fuselage communicates with satellite),
Left IDG (powers left main AC bus, right IDG will now power this bus),
and Backup Converter (powers transfer buses).
The aircraft would load shed electrical equipment from the Main AC buses whilst it was gradually decompressing (load shed equipment is restored much later when load decreases, such as IFE).
Scenario after rupture:
Massive electrical failure.
First Officer turns on phone to call for help since no communications.
Crew program diversion to Kendi (approach point to Penang), then Banda Aceh via Nilam-Sanob before passing out due to hypoxia.
Aircraft remains at high altitude and does not avoid primary radar.
Satcom logs-on when right HGA (mounted on right side of fuselage) is exposed to satellite at left turn at Nilam.
Satellite data has extra errors/time delay due to damage in E&E Bay (arcs are slightly too big).
At top of descent for Banda Aceh aircraft slows to VNAV descent speed of 272 knots IAS.
Aircraft over flies Banda Aceh heading in a southerly direction.
Autopilot reverts to maintaining Heading in degrees True.
Right engine stops due to right tank fuel exhaustion.
Transfer buses are depowered, so the APU autostarts using fuel from left tank and Satcom logs-on.
Seventh arc after first engine failure and not second.
Load shedding of IFE again.
Left engine stops due to left tank fuel exhaustion.
Aircraft ends up to 90 NM from seventh arc in SIO near ATSB hotspot.
I would start searching inside the arc in the area that has never been searched by air or sea.
Three points to remember;
1. The oxygen bottles in the E&E Bay were topped up immediately prior to flight.
2. It is impossible to replicate the way the transponder failed from the cockpit ie Mode S failure then followed by total failure 37 seconds later. Selecting Altitude Reporting Off still enables Mode S. The only way to turn off Mode S from the cockpit is to turn the transponder off completely, but then there wouldn’t be a transponder return for 37 seconds!
3. There is a plethora of information being withheld.
Indonesian Military Primary Radar Data
Phone connection logs with Banda Aceh
10 second primary radar data
Malaysian ATC Secondary Radar returns including coasting period
Vietnamese ATC transcript of conversation with MH88
Satcom Data communications log before 1600 UTC.
Flaperon analysis
Fuel burn and endurance report
Oxygen Bottle service history
So what are they hiding: incompetence or dodgy maintenance?
OXY
@OXY
Your theory is obviously not held by many on this forum.
It does not address several of VictorIs (& DennisW, earlier) points
regarding the ‘why’ of the flight path.
Assuming those flight path points have causes which at present
have not been publically discovered, (and which I would ask you
to therefore place them to the side for the time being), would
you consider an alternate theory which could better explain the
damage/incapacitation to aircraft/crew?
Unfortunately, you appear here only for a short time, usually.
@OXY @buyerninety
Not meaning to “but in”, but have you guys seen these ?
http://auntypru.com/forum/-MH370-time-to-think-of-it-as-a-criminal-act?pid=4646#pid4646
http://auntypru.com/forum/-MH370-time-to-think-of-it-as-a-criminal-act?pid=4659#pid4659
In my view, the Indonesian Radar Picture is the “key” to the whole thing.
Unfortunately, for reasons that will probably remain secret forever, they refuse to say anything other than “we did not see it where the Malaysians said it was”.
The Indonesians have point blankly refused to say whether or not they saw it “somewhere else”. But remember, there was that statement from an Indonesian Police General early on, who said they knew what happened, but he was very quickly “silenced”. Why ?
@Ventus45
Gerry Soejatman expressed it a bit differently;
http://jeffwise.net/2016/06/09/blaine-alan-gibson-finds-3-possible-mh370-debris-pieces-in-madagascar/comment-page-12/#comment-171671
The basic thrust of your comment, “The Indonesians have point blankly
refused to say whether or not they saw it “somewhere else””, I agree with,
but bluntly, even then, we don’t know if the Indonesian radar operators
were viewing their radar scopes or only viewing the insides of their
eyelids. We’ll probably never know (about that).
As for the Indonesian Police General, well, given the choice of saying
he knew nothing else, or giving in to the temptation to play the
braggard & bignote himself, well, I understand you live downunder
that part of the world, – no small likelihood, is it?
@OXY
Perhaps another time then, Cheers
Now I sleep
More RMP report
https://mobile.twitter.com/nihonmama
There is a new release of material from the RMP report. There are some interesting items that can be found in the timeline in the Appendix:
1. Hand notations in the timeline indicate that the military radar installation that captured MH370 at the time of the cell phone connect was “Bukit Bendera”, which refers to the radar on Western Hill on Penang Island. The altitude is noted to be 35,100 ft, which is more reasonable than the value of FL447 we saw previously.
2. ZS logged on to WeChat at 00:40:02 MYT on March 8, 2014, which is when MH370 was lined up on the runway, and about one minute before takeoff. That is an odd time for a B777 captain to use his cell phone.
3. There was a call to an MAS Licensed Aircraft Engineer on Feb 2, 2014, that lasted 45 minutes.
4. That same engineer called ZS three times after the last satellite handshake on Mar 8, 2014, at 10:27:29, 11:12:29, and 11:12:15 MYT. (It is not clear whether the times are AM or PM.)
@Jeff Wise. “Liow did not specify a date but said a tripartite meeting will be held after a final report is released when the 120,000 sq km search ends.” About this you said you, “…had assumed, grumpily, that they would avoid issuing a final report”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-06/mh370-search-to-end-in-two-weeks–malaysia-says/8167136 implies I think that this will be an end of search report not a final report into the accident so you retain grump rights if the latter is what you expect.
@Matt Moriarty
That information is mirrored on several websites (you can google it), but seems to originate from the Daily Malice. Having said that, the RMP report seems to imply that they had to restore the password file specifically from the recycle bin folder on one hard drive. It doesn’t say they found a duplicate on any laptop, although it is reasonable to presume such a duplicate existed, but they may not have found the laptop in the first place.
The way I see it is the RMP report mentions 6 hard disks confiscated by the RMP. One (MK 22) was formatted on 20/2/14 at 3:37 am. On MK 23 the password file was specifically deleted on 20/2/14 at 11:30 am. FSX was uninstalled on MK 25 on 20/2/14 at a time unknown. He checked in for his MH370 flight later that day, after 11 pm.
On a very speculative note, this could mean he was making preparations for, or considering the possibility of, hijacking an MH370 flight already on that day. This could, in turn, mean that this particular flight route was somehow important for any possibe hijacking plan he may have plotted in advance but not been able to carry out that day for some reason.
@VictorI, Jeff,
Would you mind providing a clear link to the material that currently is in the public domain?
@VictorI
I wouldn’t be hasty in concluding that the French NOK are in accordance with their Govt’s position on what really happened.
See below article from Dec 2, 2016 in Le Figaro. I have excerpted some passages.
LE FIGARO Disparition du vol MH370 : «On nous cache la vérité, on va donc aller la chercher nous-mêmes»
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2016/12/02/01003-20161202ARTFIG00111-disparition-du-vol-mh370-on-nous-cache-la-verite-on-va-donc-aller-la-chercher-nous-memes.php
What this suggests is that the official French govt. position is very different from what the NOK are hearing from people within the French govt.
@Nederland
As at date/time on this post:
https://mobile.twitter.com/nihonmama/status/817837742616756224?p=v
RMP_Folder1 Pilot_Nihonmama.pdf (~38MB) ;
https://docs.google.com/uc?id=0BxovjdGbD3OHRkVfZU5zXzJpOVU&export=download
RMP_Folder 2 Copilot_Nihonmama.pdf (~13.9MB) ;
https://docs.google.com/uc?id=0BxovjdGbD3OHSTM3TWMyV2xFdGM&export=download
Simulator Data_7 extracted coordinates_Nihonmama.pdf
https://docs.google.com/uc?id=0BxovjdGbD3OHT0k4dkpTb3gxQjYzYjJJUFpUU3g0WTlXR0g4&export=download
Note – this pdf was already in the public domain, as Sim-Data.pdf
Flight Simulator Analysis_Nihonmama.pdf (~657KB) ;
https://docs.google.com/uc?id=0BxovjdGbD3OHYmJZbzFhS0s5WE1RWHpHdjh0NDBFcE9RTW9F&export=download
Note – this pdf was already in the public domain (including Coordinate 7),
as Data-from-Flight-Simulator-Computer.pdf
Preliminary Exam Report_Computer (translated)_Nihonmama.pdf
https://docs.google.com/uc?id=0BxovjdGbD3OHMzQtOHN5Q0VjcHBaVUd5UWQxOHR1b3dieVdr&export=download
Note – this pdf was already in the public domain,
as Data-from-Prelim-Exam-Report-Translated-from-Malay.pdf
Folder Appendix (1).zip (~34.5MB), contains Folder Appendix (1).pdf (~44.3MB)
https://docs.google.com/uc?id=0BxovjdGbD3OHc1hBRFVfdXA2N2c&export=download
(Heading of first page of this pdf; FARIQ’S FACEBOOK ACTIVITY)
@Nederland
Nice work. I’m with you on that. It’s very significant that he deleted his files(passwords)the day before crewing an MH370 flight. This was apparently the most favoured/best suited route for his purposes but evidently, the situation on board was was not quite right that time. People who commit acts requiring intricate advance planning, often find they need to wait until conditions are exactly right, and that includes suicide cases.
There are a number of possible conclusions we can draw: He wanted a redeye flight, to maximize the effects of a surprise takeover. He possibly wanted a Chinese flight where security might be more lax (?)than on a flight to Middle East or Europe, and might be more acutely embarrassing to the Malaysian government, as relations with China are very important politically and economically. Perhaps, he wanted to do it just before the Anwar trial (which he obviously knew would be a forgone conclusion) as a shot across the bows, perhaps. Lastly, possibly MH370 would have just the required amount of fuel on board to get him where he wanted in the SIO, and the 2nd logon would give away a deliberate message or clue that the plane had somehow flown until fuel exhaustion, and was therefore not due to a mechanical fault. A flight to fuel exhaustion would have more repercussions than an unexplained mechanical fault.
Other Daily Rumours again?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/07/mh370-found-searchers-race-to-new-site.html?via=desktop&source=twitter