The above graph is taken from the DSTG book “Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370, ” page 90. It shows the probability distribution of MH370’s endpoint in the southern Indian Ocean based on analysis of the different autopilot modes available to whoever was in charge of the plane during its final six hours. It was published earlier this year and so represents contemporary understanding of these issues. As you can see, the DSTG estimated that the probability that the plane hit the 7th arc north of 34 degrees south longitude is effectively zero.
I interviewed Neil Gordon, lead author of the paper, on August 11. At that time, he told me that experts within the official search had already determined that the BFO values at 0:19 indicated that the plane was in a steep descent, on the order of 15,000 feet per minute.
Such a rate of descent would necessarily indicate that the plane could not have hit the ocean very far from the 7th arc. Nevertheless, Fugro Equator, which was still conducting its broad towfish scan of the search area at the time, spent most of its time searching the area on the inside edge of the search zone in the main area, between 37.5 and 35 degrees south latitude, about 25 nautical miles inside the 7th arc. At no point between the time of our interview and the end of the towfish scan in October did Equator scan anywhere north of 34 degrees south.
Shortly thereafter, the ATSB hosted a meeting of the experts it had consulted in the course of the investigation, and the result of their discussion was published on December 20 of this year as “MH370 – First Principles Review.” This document confirms what Gordon told me, that the group believed that the BFO data meant that the plane had to have been in a steep dive at the time of the final ping. What’s more, the report specified that this implied that the plane could not have flown more than 25 nautical miles from the 7th arc, and indeed most likely impacted the sea within 15 nautical miles.
By the analysis presented above, a conclusion is fairly obvious: the plane must have come to rest somewhere south of 34 degrees south, within 25 nautical miles of the seventh arc. Since this area has already been thoroughly scanned, then the implication is that the plane did not come to rest on the Indian Ocean seabed where the Inmarsat signals indicate it should have.
I would suggest that at this point the search should have been considered completed.
Nevertheless, the “First Principles Review” states on page 15 that the experts’ renewed analysis of the 777 autopilot dynamics indicates that the plane could have crossed the 7th arc “up to 33°S in latitude along the 7th arc.”
Then in the Conclusions section on page 23 the authors describe “a remaining area of high probability between latitudes 32.5°S and 36°S along the 7th arc,” while the accompanying illustration depicts a northern limit at 32.25 degrees south.
In other words, without any explanation, the northern limit of the aircraft’s possible impact point has moved from 34 degrees south in the Bayesian Methods paper in early 2016 to 33 degrees south on page 15 in the “First Principles Review” released at the end of the year. Then eight pages later within the same report the northern limit has moved, again without explanation, a half a degree further north. And half a page later it has moved a quarter of a degree further still.
Is the ATSB sincere in moving the northern limit in this way? If so, I wonder why they did not further search out this area when they had the chance, instead of continuing to scan an area that they apparently had already concluded the plane could not plausibly have reached.
I should point out at this point that the area between 34 south and 35.5 south has been scanned to a total widtch of 37 nautical miles, and the area between 32.5 and 34 has been searched to a total width 23 nautical miles. Thus even if the ATSB’s new northern limits are correct, they still should have found the plane.
As a result of the above I would suggest that:
a) Even though most recent report describes “the need to search an additional area representing approximately 25,000 km²,” the conduct of the ATSB’s search does not suggest that they earnestly believe that the plane could lie in this area. If they did, they could have searched out the highest-probability portions of this area with the time and resources at their disposal. Indeed, they could be searching it right now, as I write this. Obviously they are not.
b) The ATSB knew, in issuing the report, that Malaysia and China would not agree to search the newly suggested area, because it fails to meet the agreed-upon criteria for an extension (“credible new information… that can be used to identify the specific location of the aircraft”). Thus mooting this area would allow them to claim that there remained areas of significant probability that they had been forced to leave unsearched. This, in effect, would allow them to claim that their analysis had been correct but that they had fallen victim to bad luck.
c) The ATSB’s sophisticated mathematical analysis of the Inmarsat data, combined with debris drift analysis and other factors, allowed them to define an area of the southern Indian Ocean in which the plane could plausibly have come to rest. A long, exhaustive and expensive search has determined that it is not there.
d) The ATSB did not fall victim to bad luck. On the contrary, they have demonstrated with great robustness that the Inmarsat data is not compatible with the physical facts of the case.
e) Something is wrong with the Inmarsat data.
@JS, You wrote, “you’re bowing out without answering the bottom line question – can you obtain a path from only 15 spoofed BFO points?” Okay, here’s your bottom line answer: No.
BFO values can be spoofed, and provide only a general direction of where the plane would have gone: south-ish.
BTO values cannot be spoofed, but can be analyzed to give a pair of possible routes, one to the north, and one to the south. To determine which was followed, BFO data is required.
My spoofing theory is that the perps spoofed the BFO data to make it look like the plane went south, without a specific route implied, because they didn’t know that BTO data was being recorded.
However, unbenownst to them, we do have the BTO data, and it tells us that if the plane didn’t go to the SIO, it went to Kazakhstan.
I can’t put it any simpler than that. And so here’s where I’m really going to stop.
@ROB — Don’t forget that there are those amongst us who still don’t believe we landed a man on the moon. For them, it’s easier to believe in a vast conspiracy. I believe that they do serve a purpose…they establish the outer boundaries of our beliefs.
@ROB
Financial resources are a result of the US economic and political systems, not a cause.
@VictorI
“Ex-NTSB member John Goglia has stated that he believes Boeing will most likely lead the search for MH370 after government funds are exhausted.”
Even though I agree pijacking is the most likely MH370 explanation at the moment, I personally would rest some blame on aircraft design allowing pijacking to happen so easily. Proof of pijacking (if it happens) is possibly a mixed blessing for Boeing and other aircraft designers, seems to me anyways.
@TBill
“I personally would rest some blame on aircraft design…”
Straight on. It is about time someone held negligent manufacturers liable for the misuse of their products.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2016/12/30/distracted-driver-sues-apple-over-a-fatal-car.html?ana=yahoo
@jeffwise: I think you would agree that bobbing in an ocean is different than floating in a tank. The behavior in an ocean, which is influenced by the dynamic stability, has to be considered.
There are two CSIRO videos (links on p 13 of the PDG, p6 of the report) that show how the flaperon replicas behave in light winds (< 2 knots) and stronger winds (20 knots). The video was taken in a bay, and not the open ocean.
In the first video with light winds, the flaperon gently bobs in the waves, with one corner of the trailing edge about 4 inches or so above the water. The other corner of the trailing is periodically wetted by water.
In the second video with heavier winds, the trailing edge is pushed by the wind, rotating the flaperon until it is vertical with the trailing edge up, and the flaperon flips. The flaperon then yaws (spins flat) so that the raised trailing edge is again into the wind.
So while in a bay, under light wind conditions, the trailing edge sits inches above the water. Under heavy winds, the flaperon flips, wetting it entirely.
Is your contention that you believe that the flaperon as it traveled across the Indian Ocean had extended periods of time with very light winds and no waves that would wet the trailing edge? Is there any other way for the trailing edge to remain dry?
@VictorI
Additionally, as was mentioned briefly before, it would be virtually impossible to emulate crash damage on planted parts in a manner that would fool forensic specialists. It is a complete non-starter.
@VictorI, You wrote, “Is your contention that you believe that the flaperon as it traveled across the Indian Ocean had extended periods of time with very light winds and no waves that would wet the trailing edge?” The duration of calm periods would only need to be a few days for populations on the explosed portion to be killed. Recall, too, that cyprids examine a surface before settling down, and so are unlikely to choose a spot that is only intermittently wetted. I dealt with the issue of waterline and settlement patterns in an earlier post: http://jeffwise.net/2015/10/09/the-flaperon-flotation-riddle/
I do think it would be a great idea to take a replica like the Australians built, fit it out with a radio beacon, and set it adrift for a couple of weeks or months. Maybe they are already doing this.
DennisW, You wrote: “it would be virtually impossible to emulate crash damage on planted parts in a manner that would fool forensic specialists.” That’s just a feeling that you have. We know nothing about the crash damage on the planted parts, or what the experts think of the same, apart from the description of the interaction of the flaperon and flap. And once again, how extraordinary that luck should have given us two adjects parts, collected thousands of miles and many months apart!
@Gysbreght, You wrote: ” I wonder if you have given some thought to the question how much the floatation characteristics of the flaperon may have changed during the many months in the ocean, and how the French DGA may have determined that and accounted for it.” As I see it, the critical period is just before the flaperon came ashore, because Lepas can only live a matter of days out of the water, at most.
Thank you Jeff. I have my answer. Your theory as stated is at least consistent with the data.
Would you also say then that the plane must have gone north if the spoof points south?
@Jeff Wise: “As I see it, the critical period is just before the flaperon came ashore, …”.
And can you see it possibly floating deeper in the water than in the ATSB and DGA photographs?
@Jeff
Experts have opined that the flaps of the aircraft were in the retracted position when it crashed. (Note: I did not say hit the water so as not to introduce a bias.) It seems unlikely to me the experts would make a statement like that if the debris damage was not consistent with a crash.
@JS, Yes, that’s right.
@Gysbreght, It might have sat a little bit lower, but I don’t think signficantly so, as the French authorities themselves noted the discrepancy between the observed flotation and the barnacle distribution.
At risk of sounding all “kumbaya”, we mostly lead by example here in our acceptance and support of each other.
We represent a wide variety of nationality, income, intellect, age, demographic and personality that have all given a small part of their life to this investigation.
This place, as well as a few others, have kept this story alive as interest from around the world ebbs and flows. Some of us struggle to find a contribution while others easily, supremely and consistently knock it out.
It is not as easy as it may seem to remain committed but most of us now have a vested interest. As another new year approaches I respectfully thank all of you for being who you are and sharing a small part of that here.
@Jeff Wise: You always talk about “the French” as if they were a single person. DGA and Meteo France are entirely different outfits, and each did their bit. DGA floated the flaperon, and Meteo France used their results for the drift study. Do you think DGA repeated their floatation test after being informed by Meteo France of the Lepas discrepancy?
Why just a little bit lower? Two things I remember from my own floating tests with a transparant plastic lunch box:
The water level inside the box is always below the water level outside the box, the more so as more sticks out of the water.
Secondly, the more the box was filled with water, the preference between upside-up and upside-down stable positions diminished. There is no preference if the box no longer floats but sinks.
@Susie Crowe, Thank you for putting that so wonderfully.
@VictorI said:
“I have not seen anything in the RMP report that discusses problems with the personal relationships of ZS, including his relationship with Tim Pardi, who was interviewed four times by investigators. That alone suggests that relevant information may have been left out of the report.”
Or more likely suggests that there wasn’t any?
Victor, do you have a full copy of the RMP report?
If you have, why are you witholding it?
If you don’t, then how can you say with any certainty what is, or is not, contained in that report?
““There seems little doubt that Zaharie and his wife were having serious problems. They may have stopped short of a formal separation. They may have been in turmoil, they may have gone as far as agreeing to continue to live together for the sake of the family, they may have been a crossroads. Some say they were separated, some say they weren’t.””
Absolute rubbish made up by the media to create a story, according to Zaharie’s sister, Sakinab:
“As if to rub salt into the wound, stories of Zaharie and [his wife] Faizah abound in the media declaring their marriage was on the rocks, that there was an impending divorce suit in the Syariah Court … all junk, all rubbish,” she said. ”
Mrs Shah wrote: “It is sheer dedication to this profession that prompted him to set up his own home flight simulator just to equip himself in order to give a better teaching experience to his students, all at his own expense.”
Remember that Zaharie was a training Captain and SIM examiner. He is said to have regularly invited junior pilots to his home to train further on his simulator, official simulator time being limited. Zaharie wasn’t the only person to set up routes on, or use, that simulator.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/11454066/Sister-of-MH370-pilot-says-he-was-usual-self-before-flight-and-urges-public-to-stop-blaming-him.html
————-
“She also dismissed claims that Zaharie and his wife Faiza Khanum had severe marital problems, and may have been in the process of divorcing.
“They had 30 years and three children and they are still together. I would not deny that off and on they had problems. But not to the point that would cause him to want to commit this crime.”
She also said there were no financial problems in the family and that, although a supporter of jailed Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, his support of Anwar’s party was a “momentary fancy.”
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/26/asia/mh370-pilot-sister-interview/
————-
Victor, why are you repeating media rumours that have been refuted as incorrect and baseless by his family?
@jeffwise
I have a question to ask the forum, but first, some background …
When MH370 went missing, I was in the midst of spending several months on my couch, laid up with two herniated discs in my neck – very painful, I don’t recommend it. As I was unable to work, I had plenty of time on my hands, and in a perverse way, this mystery was a godsend to me – I was fascinated, tantalized and captivated. I stayed glued to the TV and made sure to watch every time Jeff Wise appeared on CNN.
I eventually recovered from my injuries and life went on. Media coverage of the event, 24/7 at first, gradually dwindled and other stories arose.
But, even now, I continue to be fascinated by MH370. I visit this site every day, sometimes multiple times a day. I enjoy the (sometimes heated) debates between you guys. I have commented sparingly, because I don’t work in a STEM field and I probably don’t have anything valuable to add.
Even so, I am glad this site exists, and I’m glad to see that there are others who share my interest about what happened to MH370.
But back to my question, and forgive me if it has been addressed by others. There has been much debate about the debris – is it real? was it planted? – but I have never found any discussions about what happened to the bodies on the plane, if it did indeed crash in the Southern Indian Ocean.
So my question, macabre as it is, is this: Shouldn’t some bodies and/or body parts have washed ashore by now, if the plane crashed in the SIO?
@Nate, Thank you, that’s wonderful to hear.
I claim no expertise in the subject of corpses, but my general understanding is that due to decomposition and hungry sea critters there wouldn’t be much left after a short time, especially in a warm sea.
Not just bodies and body parts. I don’t recall hearing anything about seat cushions, toiletries, clothing, luggage, etc., etc., washing ashore. It’s just odd to me, like so many things about MH370.
Jeff and/or Dr. Bobby – do you know if the possible northern route areas were checked for contrails? Was any wind or weather data discussed?
@JS, I was never much of a fan of contrail discussions, they only form under specific conditions, but as far as I know, no, no one has looked for contrails in the north.
@Nate, Great question about seat cushions. Given that the seat-back fragment turned up, you’d expect a lot of seat cushions, too — and being so light, they’d move quickly with the wind. Blaine Alan Gibson did find a bunch of purses on a beach, but there was nothing that linked them to MH370. I would expect suitcases to sink and clothes to deteriorate. But otherwise I agree that there should have been other types of debris, as indeed turned up after AF447–for instance I recall a beverage cart was found.
@Nate
The FAA specification relative to seat cushions is TSO-C72. From that document:
5.0.1 Buoyancy Standard. The device must be shown by the tests specified in paragraph 7.0.1 to be capable of providing not less than 14 pounds of buoyancy in fresh water at 85° F. for a period of 8 hours.
and
7.0.1 Buoyancy Testing. The flotation device, including all dress covers, fire blocking layer (if used) and straps that would normally be used by a survivor in an emergency, must be tested in accordance with either subparagraph (a) or (b) of this paragraph, as applicable, or an equivalent test procedure. The test may be conducted using nonfresh water, or at a temperature other than 85° F., or both, provided the result can be converted to the standard water condition specified in Paragraph 5.0.1. The test may be conducted in open (ocean or lake) or restricted (swimming pool) water. The test specimen of noninflatable devices, such as pillows or seat cushions, must either be preconditioned to simulate any detrimental effects on buoyancy resulting from extended service or an increment must be added to buoyancy standard in Paragraph 5.0.1 sufficient to offset any reduction in buoyancy which would result from extended service use.
My take on it is that seat cushions and similar non-inflatable cabin material would get water logged and sink in a relatively short time.
@Nate, @DennisW, After Alaska Airlines 261 went down there was a large floating debris field:
So many cushions might have been destroyed on impact. But perhaps not all:
Here’s this from the ATSB:
It’s funny how, when floating plastic debris is annoying and harmful for the environment, it’s said to stick around essentially forever, but when we want it to stick around, it decomposes and vanishes.
@DennisW
I completely understand about the seat cushions losing buoyancy in a short amount of time. I only mentioned them — along with other random items — to illustrate that nothing — and I mean NOTHING — has washed ashore that could be tied to MH370, except for pieces of the actual plane itself. And some of those pieces, from what I understand, can’t be definitively linked to MH370.
For example, and as Jeff Pointed out, Air France 447 crashed at sea, and it took investigators two years to find the main debris field and the plane’s “black boxes”. Even so, within two days of the crash, they began finding debris and bodies from the plane.
Granted, the first responders for MH370 began searching for the plane where we now know it wasn’t on the day it disappeared. But it still seems strange to me that various items haven’t washed ashore somewhere. And I’m talking about minor things like a driver’s license, a necklace with a personal identification on it, an airline napkin, a notebook, plasticware, a dinner tray, etc.
@Jeff We see you advocating a Northern route again (still?). I think that is fair – everything still seems to be pretty much questionable.
Assuming that one can explain the BFO data (spoofing?) and the debris (planted?), it does seem easier to imagine motivations if the plane went north (at least there is something there besides water).
If North, you seem still to consider Russia (Putin) as the only possible culprit.
How have you excluded the Uyghurs? Some circumstantial indicators in support of Uyghur involvement are:
1. There were two Uyghurs on board
2. One had engineering expertise
3. They have a known and significant ‘grudge’ against the Chinese
4. They have practiced violence against the Chinese in the past
5. There were 153 Chinese Nationals on board
6. The airport at Kuqa Qiuci was on Victor Iannello’s list of possibles if the plane had gone North (and it is within the autonomous region of Xinjiang).
Granted, they have not claimed responsibility, they have not used the airplane for an attack and pieces of the plane have been found in the sea.
If the plane were taken because of something aboard (something that could be converted easily into cash) and something that the Malays do not want known to have been aboard – that seems to explain a lot (except for the BFO data and the debris).
I am not sure which is less likely – a flight north and the associated requirement for false data and planted debris or Zaharie flying hours into the SIO and then doing what? (Jump of the wing and drown himself?)
Also, why cannot the BTO be ‘spoofed’. I do know how these values are derived and to do so in ‘real time’ would be tough, but – to alter the BFO or the BTO data it would be possible to hack into the Inmarsat files and re-write the data files. (Perhaps there are indicators this did not happen?)
In any case, how do you definitely exclude the Uyghurs?
@Shadynuk, To carry out a spoof of the Inmarsat data would require a state-level actor–and not just any state, either, but one with an aircraft-manufacturing and satellite communications industries. Also, the DSTG path ends in Kazakhstan, a Russian ally. Finally, Russia destroyed another MAS 777 four and a half months later as part of a multi-front global hybrid warfare against the West. Means, motive, track record…
@Natee
Re: Air France 447 you may know a number of the victims were located inside the fuselage when it was finally found. And of course ACARS was working so they had an approx location, and it still took 2 years to find.
@Susie Crowe
“If ground to air calls cause the timer to reset thereby affecting ping intervals, in my opinion it would take a significant number of calls in an hour to eliminate a ping by pushing it into the next sequence from constant timing delays. Most important though and I think what you are asking, if dozens of calls were made, could that data be used in the same manner or is it one and the same ping data” Maybe a call every ~30 mins would be enough. I hadn’t realised before that we got those BTOs because of a major gap in calls. What I struggle to believe is that MY genuinely did not call in those 4 1/2 hours if they were unaware of the location of the plane and had no contact with pi/hijackers. Hmmm… enough said.
Best wishes to you and everyone for 2017.
@AM2 “….What I struggle to believe is that MY genuinely did not call in those 4 1/2 hours if they were unaware of the location of the plane and had no contact with pi/hijackers…..”
Could it be that they knew where the plane was and therefore there was no need to take any action other than to allow the world to think MH370 was on it way to its destination?
A number of days after MH370 went missing a Malaysian told me what Shah’s intentions were.
I have known the gentleman and have no doubt of his integrity.
Shah intended to proceed out into the Andaman Sea and loiter while negotiations took place on the ground with the Prime Minister’s office regarding holding an election.
Once concluded Shah would land at Banda Aceh in Indonesia.
If negotiations were protracted he would come round below Indonesia to give more time and land in Java.
Shah intended to land safely and seek asylum in Indonesia.
A search off the southern coast of Java along the 7th arc needs to be undertaken.
What makes me nuts about the suicide/murder theory is it’s not, it is an opinion of his guilt.
It is time to hear an actual theory how it plausibly occurred, starting with Zaharie and Fariq boarding the plane.
Surely some from the guilty Z camp have run it around their brains because I have hundreds of times and I am very skeptical this could have been accomplished by 1 person.
Please explain how Captain Zaharie managed to kill or incapacitate 238 people,11 of these people were crew members with substantial experience and training, all while flawlessly flying (and “expertly” for some of the time) for 7+ hours the predetermined flight path most of the guilty campers think it was.
Would not at least 1 hour have been flown after sunrise when it was light outside?
@Freddie
Thank you for outlining your theory. It is somewhat similar to OXY who recently claims MH370 overflew Banda Aceh heading out to SIO (presumably as a ghost flight), and is also somewhat consistent I believe with the anonymous email claim to a news outlet in 2014. And is also similar to DennisW theory.
Can you give us your flight path in SkyVector? If I recall you have a proposed path the fits the pings.
@Freddie
@TBill
Found this article for you http://m.news24.com/news24/World/News/MH370-wreck-likely-south-of-Java-simulations-show-20150901
Interesting to see what area they wanted to look at and what a flight path would look like for this.
@TBill@Freddie
In the interest of full disclosure there are two problems with the Java coast scenario that I have not been able to resolve.
1> If Shah intended to land safely why did he not radio his position or activate an ELT when fuel starvation was obvious. It would have at least given the PAX a fighting chance.
2> The fuel remaining instrumentation on a 777 is quite accurate. It is inconceivable, to me, that he would not have attempted a landing on Christmas Island.
My variation on Freddie’s theme is that when negotiations failed, Shah dialed in the Cocos as a waypoint, and allowed the aircraft to fly past the Cocos until fuel ran out. When negotiations fail, you have to be prepared to carry out the threat in order to let the other party know that your intentions are serious. The path using Cocos as a waypoint parallels the McMurdo waypoint path, and terminates slightly beyond it on the 7th arc.
Like many here, I still struggle with the notion of suicide and murder. I can internalize the dying as a patriot notion.
The other difference is that my version has the negotiations being a demand for the transfer of a significant portion of the money Najib embezzled to a numbered account in Europe. That is the only action I can think of that would not be reversible when Shah landed the plane. The intention of the patriots would be to return the money to the people of Malaysia.
As you can see, I have all but tied a ribbon around this mystery, and I am simply waiting for discovery to unfold.
@steve baker
To my mind, there is evidence for transmission of the in flight entertainment system (which feeds internet transmission) during the normal flight operation up to 1:07 am local. It is generally assumed that there was no satellite transmission time after that, presumably because it was disabled some time after. The system, including in flight entertainment, logged on at 2:25 to 2:28. No data were sent after that, however. One possible explanation is that passengers were unable to use the system, the other, the in flight entertainment system was specifically disabled from the cockpit.
@Susie Crowe
The Captain would lock the cockpit door, put on his oxygen mask, and depressurize the cabin. Unlike the pilot oxygen, the passenger masks only last for about 15 minutes – chemical reaction. It would also make sense to turn off all cabin electric power and lights. Make it hard for people to move around cabin with supplemental masks. Hypoxia would occur rapidly. After enough time people would die and he could pressurize the cabin again.
Picture the aircraft with everybody dead except for the one pilot. This is a merciful way to put everyone to sleep before they die. And you do not want a mob attacking the cockpit door.
One of the theories is that there was an accidental decompression with a diversion to Panang by the crew before Hypoxia set in. One book claimed this is what happened.
I do not know if the power up of SDU for the first aircraft ping was cause by pilot reconnecting power after running in the dark over Malaysia.
B777 is a highly automated aircraft and one pilot could fly it and manage the cabin pressure.
I am not claiming the this was a suicide. One book claims that there was a breech in the cabin causing an explosive decompression with everyone going Hypoxic except a flight attendant who when got to the cockpit with a portable supply and ser the autopilot to take the plane away from populated areas.
Either way – a plane full of dead people.
@Freddie
@TBill
Guess it’s possible to be close to Java trench area 7th Arc but highly unlikely.
Just look a previous flight at the tangent from straight path fig1.2 example of less likely constraints.
http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/855/bok%253A978-981-10-0379-0.pdf?originUrl=http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Fbook%2F10.1007%2F978-981-10-0379-0&token2=exp=1483141684~acl=%2Fstatic%2Fpdf%2F855%2Fbok%25253A978-981-10-0379-0.pdf%3ForiginUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Flink.springer.com%252Fbook%252F10.1007%252F978-981-10-0379-0*~hmac=47fa640500e5063eb9cd19f92168e76827fef349594095b23ddc6f74bc1258bd
@Freddie and @DennisW
Thanks for your theories. How do you think Z communicated with his contacts (fellow hijackers) on the ground?
@Hank
No offense but I did not read past the 2nd line…how do you account for the hypothermia from the depressurization
@AM2
There was no need for communication from Z. All he was waiting for was a go or no-go from his co-conspiritors on the ground in KL. That could have come from VHF, UHF, or sat-com.
I speculate three possibilities:
1> Fail message – ditch the plane in the SIO vis Cocos.
2> Success message – land at Banda Aceh
3> No message – ditch the plane in the SIO via Cocos.
@DennisW
Well that’s all possible but if so why not bring in the RMAF and why search in the SCS at all if they knew where the plane was. Or are you suggesting that they didn’t know where the plane was in real-time? And still don’t know?
@AM2
All a smoke screen. The Malaysian government knew what happened from the get-go. The Penang “fly-by” was intentional to show what was going on. The fact that the search was coordinated by top Malay officials early on, instead of the normal protocol, is ample evidence that something was amiss. Do you see Obama getting involved in missing aircraft issues?
@all
This is a total waste of time for many to read beyond this point but a review for some of us interested in the impact (or lack of) of the ground to air calls.
Source:
http://mh370.mot.gov.my/download/FactualInformation.pdf. (pages 52-56)
“The SATCOM responded normally to a series of roughly hourly Log-On Interrogations from the Perth GES, up to and including a Log-On Interrogation at 00:10 UTC, 08 March 2014. The two unanswered ground to air calls at 18:39 UTC and 23:13 UTC reset the Perth GES inactivity timer and hence the Log-On Interrogations were not always hourly.”
1st handshake – log-on initiated by the aircraft
2:25AM
•Unanswered ground-to-air telephone call
2:39AM
2nd handshake initiated by ground station
3:41AM
3rd handshake initiated by ground station
4:41AM
4th handshake initiated by ground station 5:41AM
5th handshake initiated by ground station 6:41AM
•Unanswered ground-to-air telephone call
7:13AM
6th handshake initiated by ground station
8:10AM
There is something peculiar about this sequence I cannot explain. Does anyone know if a ground to air call has a preset time for duration or is it much the same as making a regular call?
@DennisW
Thanks for all this detail anyway. I’m still sitting on the fence awaiting further evidence.
@DennisW
Interesting Reddit thread with a very confident poster calls himself a Malaysian @mrm9mro agrees with you on the Malaysian cover-up, he thinks H probably knew from the getgo what was going on with Z.
https://www.reddit.com/r/MH370/comments/2y1qg1/the_most_logical_and_craziest_mh370_conspiracy/?st=ixcm7pc8&sh=501d5e3b
@SusieC, There are not all that many theories that also fit the data. The theory that ZS could and may have executed this atrocious act, would classify him as a “possible” offender. No matter how sickening the thought may be, it’s a theory that cannot be ignored IMO. Acting alone does come with its set of challenges, particularly in crowd management. As to how ZS would have managed this, I am clueless too.
@All, Wishing you all a wonderful New Years eve and a great 2017! I will raise a glass of Champagne to all of you and your collective pursuit to the truth. That we may lift the carpet of M9-MRO and retrieve what was swept under it all these years and provide answers to NOK and those that spent a lot of their time to find answers.
@Susie Crowe
Hypoxia is lack of oxygen. I never said hypothermia. If cabin pressure is at 35000 feet you become unconscious fast and can die. This is a well known problem that has caused many crashes.
You asked the question about how a pilot could incapacitate all of the people and I was only trying to answer it. Maybe you really did not want to know in your earlier post. Sorry.
@Buyerninety. You make a point with your rhetorical question.
@TBill
Earlier I raised the question of “Why that particular flight”. If Z wanted to disappear in the SIO and evade radar, a flight East, say to Amsterdam, would have served this purpose much better. By the time he made the FMT he would be long gone from Malay radar coverage while following a perfectly normal flight path.
The flight he selected was almost the opposite. It “announced” a diversion as early as possible – more than an hour before a flight East. That was the idea, to make sure the Malay government was fully aware that the flight was diverted. He was not attempting evasion.
Jeff – I think that we are getting a better picture of Putin as the months roll by over the last couple of years. Yes he has had long standing apprehensions about the spread of NATO influence, has been keen to restore Russian influence, and he has some pedigree. But I think when Putin looks around these days he sees two types of world leader: those serious about tackling Sunni Islamism and those who are not – and he never rated Obama. Most people don’t appreciate the scale of the issue for him. He sees NATO as toothless in tackling Sunni Islamism, and European leaders as cowards worth pushing around. He would see also that MAS/Malaysia is a vital hub for the Sunni’s and his much vaunted spying apparatus would be fixed on it(as well as INMARSAT over a long period). There is only one group of folks in the world he wants to actively bomb atm and that specifically is the Chechens in Syria that have been so operationally important to IS, and anyone/anything else that happens to get in the way. He may see the west as a long term adversary but he is at war with Islamism, and shooting down MH17 in particular wouldn’t really constitute war with the west – to me. And no one predicted that he would deploy to Syria. He sees most western leaders as being painfully timid in this fight.