UPDATED 12/12/16: Just to underline the extraordinary implausibility of Blaine Alan Gibson’s finds, I’ve taken the extra step of putting in bold the three (3) separate occasions when Gibson hit the jackpot with a one-in-a-million stroke of luck. See if you can spot them below. My personal favorite is the one with the ATV.
On December 8, 2016, the Twitter account voice370 (@cryfortruth) Tweeted the following:
Another piece of potential debris washed up the shore and found by B.A. Gibson on the same beach where NOK Jiang found a piece yesterday. pic.twitter.com/PdXCkYX4oI
— voice370 (@cryfortruth) December 9, 2016
In a Facebook post the same day, Grace Subathirai Nathan (one of the NOK on the current debris-finding expedition to Madagascar) posted about the same find:
Another piece of debris found earlier today. This time by private citizen Blaine Alan Gibson while he was with two French journalists Pierre Chabert and Renaud Fessaguet.
He walked past the spot on the beach where next of kin Jiang Hui found a piece yesterday and nothing was there then 30 mins later on the way back the waves washed the piece on debris to the shore.
This just goes to show that debris can be there one minute and gone the next and vice versa.
She included some of the images that were also in the Tweet, among them this one:
I’ve already written in the comment section of the preceding post that I find it quite extraordinary that a purported piece of MH370 apparently washed up on the shore within half an hour of Blaine’s passing by the spot. The ocean is vast, the number of pieces of MH370 necessarily limited. The odds of finding a piece of the plane on any given stretch of sand is very small; the odds of finding something that washed ashore within the last half hour must be infinitesmal.
One would also would not expect a newly washed-ashore piece of debris to be free of biofouling, as I’ve discussed before. Something that just came out of the ocean, if free of biofouling, must have spent time ashore, gotten picked clean, then washed back out to sea, only to come ashore again within a few days. Truly miraculous.
I’ve voiced suspicions in the past about Gibson’s self-financed investigation. He said that he found his first piece of MH370 debris, so-called “No Step,” 20 minutes after starting his first beach search. Though it was found on a sand bar that is awash at high tide, it, too, was remarkably free of biofouling. Since then, he has found more than half of the pieces of suspected debris. All have have been completely innocent of marine life. His finds have excited remarkably little enthusiasm among the authorities; the Malaysians waited six months to retrieve one batch, and then only made that effort after their inaction was the subject of unflattering news stories.
Gibson is clearly an eccentric; before he found “No Step” he was bouncing around the Indian Ocean littoral, investigating crackpot theories and making himself known to the authorities and next-of-kin. In the past he has, he says, tried to find the Ark of the Covenant. A recent article in the Guardian had this bit:
Blaine Gibson, a lawyer turned investigator who arrived on Madagascar six months ago, said he has seen debris from the plane used to fan a kitchen fire by a nine-year-old girl on the island.
“It was light and it was solid and it was part of the plane,” said Gibson, 59. “When I put the word out around the village, another guy turned up with another piece he had been using as a washing board for clothes.”
Are we to believe that he walked up on a girl fanning a fire and, lo and behold, she happened to be fanning it with a piece of MH370? Instead of any of a billion suitable small, light, flat objects that exist in the world? What’s more, I am troubled by Gibson’s suggestion that the residents of this region are so materially impoverished that they would eagerly size on any scrap of material that comes their way and put it to immediate use—to incorporate into a shelter, to burn for fuel, to fan a fire with, or to use as a washboard. In fact I find this idea rather bonkers.
Some people feel that it is unacceptable to question Blaine Alan Gibson; they say that he has inspired and given hope to the next-of-kin. As I’ve said before, I feel that if we are going to solve this mystery, we have to put every piece of evidence under intense scrutiny, regardless of however someone may or may not feel emotionally about that scrutiny.
Indeed, I find the fact that Gibson and his associates try to aggressively silence questions about his finds even more arousing of suspicion.
UPDATE 12/11/16: A couple of points I’d like to add to the above:
— In September, Gibson enlisted the aid of Australian aviation journalist Geoffrey Thomas in claiming that two pieces of debris that he’d found likely came from the electronics bay, showed evidence of fire damage, and therefore supported the hypothesis that the plane had come to grief due to an accidental fire. This theory, while favored by some, is very much at odds with other evidence in the case. Australian authorities responded by saying that “contrary to speculation there is no evidence the item was exposed to heat or fire.”
— More on Gibson’s background from SeattleMet:
For the next 25 years, Gibson lived a life that could be described as unconventionally adventurous. After a short stint at Seafirst, he moved to Olympia and worked for three years in the office of Washington state senator Ray Moore. Then he joined the U.S. Department of State. But he didn’t last long there either; in the late ’80s he could see that the Soviet Union was on the verge of collapse and decided to capitalize on it. For 10 years he lived off and on in the newly capitalist Russia, serving as a consultant to new business owners and fattening a bank account that would later fund his globe-trotting.
When I interviewed him after the “No Step” find, he told me that he speaks fluent Russian.
— Based on the total quantity of debris found in the last year and a half, one observes that the pieces turn up quite infrequently. Yet Gibson has now twice found debris with a camera crew present. In June he found three pieces while accompanied by a crew from the France 2 TV show “Complément d’enquête.” From the same SeattleMet piece:
In the first week of June he did, in fact, go to Madagascar. And on June 6 he led a French television news crew to a thin strip of land off the island’s east coast. They rode quads along the beach, and at the north end he signaled for the party to stop. The camera crew had a good reason to follow him: He is, to this day, still the only person to find a piece of Flight 370 while actually looking for it. And he’d done enough research to have a good idea where he might find more. But come on, it was still a one-in-a-million find. There’s no way he’d actually uncover another.
Right?With the cameras trained on him, Gibson dismounted and started walking. And as he got closer to the object that had caught his eye, he could see that it was gray fiberglass. It was almost a clone of No Step. Later, he found a handful of other pieces, one of which looked exactly like the housing for a seat-back TV monitor. He couldn’t be sure, but he had a pretty good idea they came from Flight 370.
To recap, Blaine and a TV crew rode in ATVs along the beach until he signaled them to stop, got out, and pointed to a piece of MH370 debris. Holy. Shit.
— This is the piece that NOK Jiang Hui found the day before Blaine discovered his on the same beach. Again, pretty clean:
— Note: I’ve take out a paragraph in the original in which I said that the location of the debris in the sand appears to be way too far from the water to have washed up there within the last half hour. Several commenters pointed out that the piece appears to straddle the wet/dry line demarcating the high water mark, and I concede that point.
UPDATE 12/12/16: There’s a story in Der Spiegel today about a tree trunk that washed up in New Zealand. The remarkable size and density of these organisms is so striking that this entirely natural phenomenon struck those who came upon it as something fantastical and alien.
I bring this up to emphasize how extraordinary it is that all the debris recovered by Blaine Alan Gibson, and indeed all of the suspected pieces of MH370 debris save two, have been recovered in a nearly pristine state. Yes, objects which spend some time ashore can become picked clean in time. But many of the pieces of debris recovered so far have been found within hours of being deposited. As I’ve previously written in some detail, such pieces would be expected to be colonized by a variety of marine organisms. If you look at galleries of objects which have washed ashore after having spent a similar amount of time at sea, such as tsunami debris collected in the US Northwest and Hawaii, it collectively looks very, very different from MH370 debris. Don’t take my word for it; there are links to such image galleries at the end of the piece linked above.
@JeffEise
But there was a story going round in the early days, that Z was the only crew member not to have made any social plans beyond 8thMarch 2014. Has that story been debunked?
@JeffWise
But there was a story going round in the early days, that Z was the only crew member not to have made any social plans beyond 8thMarch 2014. Has that story been debunked?
@ROB, I do recall hearing that said, but don’t know if it’s ever been pinned down or not–it might have been one of those many stories that circulated in March 2014 that turned out not to be true. Perhaps someone could look into it.
More recently there have been reports that Zaharie planned to retire to Australia, suggesting he was looking toward the future.
@DennisW, @TBill, @ed:
In some cases there will be multiple reasons for doing studies and arriving at a result pointing in a certain direction. This is hopefully such an occasion. I think it is a lot more people concerned about suicidal pilots than spikes in autism for instance. For a good reason. Which doesn’t mean one should not bring the salt. But this does not strike me as an evil undertaking. Rather the opposite. There are some very valuable conclusions and suggestions and comments therein, aimed at pilots — and a few for passengers perhaps too. The catch 22 of postal pilots is addressed and there is several comments on that: insurance to cover loss of income for pilots who come forward as depressed; a toning down of the stigma of depression (everyone’s getting it and as long as you see it and medicate there is no great risks involved); change of rules for monotoring and reporting suicidals doctor to employer. The pilot profession might be in a state of flux due e.g. to rise in security, rationalisation, automatisation and falling prestige and change in recruited groups and gender profile (just guesses) and, as guess, the professional organisation will perhaps not itself be very good at adjusting or realizing how to get at or cope with the issues. So all efforts at getting these up on the table could be a good thing. Biting the bullet and carrying on as usual is not always the best solution. Just as a suggestion. Whether the study really reflects something new or any actually rising percentages could be secondary to that.
@jeffw – thank you about revealing further about Mick Rooney. There is no way without good planning like many have stated it takes a plan for this to be done by one person. There is no way ZS could have done the disappearance on a whim.
@Johan
Its impossible to see every suicide coming beforehand. One of the reasons might be the social taboos associated to it, or the fears of a suffering mind to hide the situation due to the state of mental disease.
But when we talk about Zaharie we dont talk about someone who might suicide someday but we would try to find out whether he already did it, that is we are talking about the hindsight story.
Now, a suicide might be able to hide his true state of mind near perfect for a long period of time,l because such things are one of first we learn in our live, to keep our facade going at any cost.
But when we talk about the hindsight research of a suicide, you find always(!) plenty(!) indications of the mental disease, of signals from the unconscious of that person, that prove to be hard facts .
As Jeff Wise explained, none of the usual indicators have been found. There is no story at all. Maybe you be so kind as to look into the differences betwen the Lübritz act and Zaharie Shah, there you might find, that there is whole universe betwen the two of them. There is no similarity betwen the two at all.
So the only involvement of Zaharie could be a political motive because of the Anwar trial, which is not very high on everybody s agenda, because there was just no political claim at all. It would not make sense, to murder 239 people and at the same time not to try to get the political message through.
So if you want Z involved in some way he might have been under pressure of malaysian mafia organisations to cooperate at gunpoint against his spouses. But what would criminals get by that, what they could not easier get on the ground.
If you want to study the psychology of Zaharie, you better focus on the question, whet the plane was flown over the peninsula in a way Zaharie would have done it.
I remember the stories from the first days of the search very well. There was common understandig, that the plane was flown in a military style, and Zaharie clearly was a civilian pilot.
I presume he was the first to be killed, because he was the most imminent threat to the perpetrators. And that was the reason, why the 1st Oficers phone tried to make contact with the tower in Penang.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/traces-of-explosives-found-on-remains-of-victims-in-egyptair-ms804-crash/ar-AAlAZ2J
EgyptAir traces of explosives found
@DennisW
I know exactly what you mean Dennis ;).
I’m a keen student of human nature, and I know just how people becomes slaves to fashion. We didn’t go around with autism, in my day. It wasn’t heard of. If someone was unable to fit in with the others, they were advised to keep their gobs shut, and turn up the radio!
Now, it seems fashionable to hack into the Pentagon’s computers, and plead the Aspergers!
I apologise in advance for any offence the forgoing might cause to the political correctness brigade.
@Johan
I am actually heavily invested in big pharma for many of the reasons you mention.
Pros
1> It is a very profitable business
2> The trend to treat diagnosed problems with medications is on the rise.
3> The number of diagnosticians motivated to find problems is on the rise.
Cons
1> Government intervention may seriously undermine the operating profit i.e. nanny state behavior.
So i do have a dog in this fight, and I am not at all against doing the type of research we are discussing above across a broad range of both physical and mental illnesses. Do I think the actual percentage of people suffering from any particular illness is on the rise? Of course not.
My other firm belief is that chronic issues are best treated with lifestyle changes, not medications. If your job is affecting the quality of your life, get a different job. Too many people chase the god almighty dollar. I was once one of them.
As a practicing EMT (local volunteer fire department) I am always astounded by the virtual pharmacy I encounter when cataloging a patient’s medications for the pre-hospital care report. Meds are the new normal.
Rant over.
@All, I think the pilot suicide study needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. Depression may of course happen in the pilot pool, but likely much less than compared to other professions. Also, being depressed does not automatically equate to being suicidal. If the captain was not locked out of the cockpit on the GW flight, it would not have crashed, IMO. Since GW, airlines have taken measures to always have 2 people in the cockpit to prevent a pilot from locking the other pilot out.
@CosmicAcademy:
You’re so full of loose balls I get all pale just to think of answering that. Good luck with the military style track.
@ROB
I happen to have a good memory.
No political correctness but adressing two opposing statements from you as I read you well.
In reply of @Susie (from England) declaring she had Asperger-syndrome you declared you were on the autism-spectrum too.
You seemed so understanding to her.
Now you seem to ridicule the exsistence of autisme and make it ridiculous? Explain please.
In earlier days a lot was not known by science. Science is meant to uncover and classify phenomena. It’s an ungoing proces growing with new insights and evidence.
Psychology follows scientific methods.
Psychologic phenomena are better understood and classified during research over time.
So I believe also suicidal tendencies among a significant amount of pilots shown in this article is something to take serious. And not laugh away with one-liners.
IMO it’s easy to understand pilots have a tremendous responsibility on their shoulders.
In a sence it’s ridiculous to be solely responsable of hundredrs of people transporting them in a very complicated vehicle that travels almost at the speed of sound.
The weight of that responsability would make me depressed only by thinking of it.
Pilots are expected to be strong and heros but ofcourse they are only fragile human too.
And this kind of research shows this.
Denying research and facts never ever helped progres. On the contrary.
Staying stuck in the past is hampering it.
@TBill
“I am talking radar in other zones have the possibility of seeing what was happening in the Andamans if you are out there before their midnight. ”
they have that possibility 24h a day, maybe some of them don’t operate at night but I highly doubt it and perpetrator certainly couldn’t know it reliably
@Keffertje with reference to @Ed @Richard posts
“Depression may of course happen in the pilot pool, but likely much less than compared to other professions.”
The pilot suicide discussions are consistent with Ewan Wilson’s book Goodnight Malaysian 370. In the book, Ewan Wilson explores with a professional if there could be personality reasons why some pilots could be inclined to suicide. So I question your blanket exoneration of pilots as uniquely immune to this human behavior problem.
I would say, aside from personality considerations, it is rather obvious that modern jet airliners provide the opportunity and I would even say temptation to lock the cockpit door and act out on suicidal feelings (in a moment of human weakness of a rouge pilot or even a hijacker).
Corrective actions? Yes, two in the cockpit, but many other potential changes in airplane design and procedures. Why in the world can a pilot secretly turn off all communications, without an electronic interlock sending a distress signal? Why is ACARS not reporting things like cabin temperature and pressure, and other critical flight integrity parameters?
@Ed
They are talking about the pilot-depression article now on the radio (WTOP Washington DC news radio).
@Dennis
I 100% agree with your post on Z. I think you laid out the psychological reasons why pilot suicide seems implausible very well. I personally think that the pilot suicide theory (regarding both pilots) doesn’t ‘work’ on any level.
A more general point, regarding the Autism discussion: Psychiatric diseases are, to some extent, a question of definition. These definitions are laid out currently in the DSM V (for the US). This ‘rulebook’ gets a rework from time to time; I think the last ‘upgrade’ from DSM IV to V was only a few years ago. At the time, there was some discussion that the definitions in DSM V are mostly broader than in DSM IV, meaning more people get an official diagnosis. Someone who might, under DSM IV, have not ‘made the cut’ to be classed, f.ex., as autistic, might now make it. One can, at great length, debate the pros and cons of this.
@Tbill, I hear what you arer saying. My post was not a blanket exoneration though. I do not know who Ewin emabraced when writing his book, but historically pilot suicide accounts for 8pct of the cause of crashes. We can agree thats 8pct too much. Regardless of what goes on in the cockpit or someones mind, the other pilot should always have access, regardless of whats going on.
@Keffertje: 8 percent? No no no no no. Pilot suicides are exceedingly rare. There are just a handful of suspected cases. Anyone who’s interested in this topic btw should definitely read the gripping Kindle Single “Fatal Descent.”
@Jeff, My bad! I thought it was 8% from posts ages ago. My memory must be failing me. It makes sense that its much lower Jeff, I agree.
And to mention on my previous post.
It’s not only the pilots who are responsible.
Most of the passengers step in with blind faith.
Giving their lives into the hands of very complicated technology and some strangers in the cockpit. They also take the risk consiously or (often I guess) unconsiouly that things will not go wrong.
If they do it unconsiously they are naive and kind of ‘stupid’ IMO.
You kind of step as a passenger into a Formula 1 car (worse even) without knowing who’s driving and the car is completely safe.
Everytime I step into an airplane I’m completely aware of this. I give my live into the hands of unknown others and a bunch of very sensitive, fragile and complicated electronics and mechanics.
I know this very well since I’ve got some education and after that working experience for some years on the KLM engine workshop.
It’s not all on the pilots.
In Holland there is a singer who states it like this in another context but it’s about the same:
‘If you have the guts to fly, you also have to have the guts to fall’.
Everytime I step into an airplane I have this lyric in my mind.
@TBill. Thanks for that, and i’m happy to have stirred up some debate. I wish I could join in the debate, but I get so confused with this thing, and like most readers of this blog are afraid to say anything for fear of sounding foolish. I really enjoy reading it though, and thanks to our host Jeff Wise so much.
@ed
I apreciated your contribution. As far as I’m concerned; feel free to go on.
@Nederland
Thanks for this new drift-analysis.
It’s extensive but essentialy confirmes the current search area and its immediate surroundings as far as I can see.
No real news on that front.
But indicating again areas above ~30S and beneath 40S are less probable.
One of their main questions is why no debris landed on Australian shores in 2014 and later (at least not found after and till now).
To me this is obvious.
The crash-area was not beneath ~35S or North of ~28S. This reseach enforces this view IMO.
It’s a detailed research but with little news IMO compared to ealier drifter based-studies.
It only reinforces the latest drifter based studies.
In this way it’s contributing IMO.
@Ge Rijn
“Giving their lives into the hands of very complicated technology and some strangers in the cockpit. They also take the risk consiously or (often I guess) unconsiouly that things will not go wrong.”
Life is a governed by a bell shaped curve. There are just as many suicidal car drivers (percentage wise) as airplane drivers. The risk is even worse when you toss alcohol and cell phones into the mix which are not generally an issue in the cockpit. I actually feel a sense of relief when I am finally parked at the airport relative to driving there.
Getting back to Z, my difficulty is not with Z committing suicide, but with his committing mass murder in the process. I can see him committing mass murder for other reasons, but suicide is not among them.
@DennisW:
Pharmacy shares (or funds) will probably be a good affair for many years to come. The world is changing, for better and for worse, and pills have and will have a place. But few things are true across the table, and developments are not necessarily one-sided or simple or given to everyone to figure out. You will always have to look out for your own but, in the end. “Universal truths” have a tendency to become particularly bad advice for any one individual as you go along. But I still prefer the painkiller to biting a stick, and I prefer anti-depressives to mustard gas. It is a question of perspective of course. It is not the same world anymore, so it would be strange if some things didn’t increase at the cost of other things. But it is in the end for science to say what has changed. And then historiography. But at that point it won’t matter to us anymore anyway.
Looking after yourself is what it is all about in the end.
I’d love to be a local fireman, my grandfather set up the local firebrigade where he lived and led it (still got his 1920s helmet), but living next door to the military HQ and a firestation, in the capital, the prospects seem depressingly meagre…
@Ge Rijn
I didn’t mean to trivialize HFA. I think you are misunderstanding my comments if that’s how it came across to you. I was just using it as an example of how social awareness changes over time. Yes, I do have it.
I must say I am taken aback by your remarkable long term memory, almost as good as mine.
@DennisW:
My granddad had btw a famous quack living across the fields where people went for ailings that “science” at the time had no answers for or wouldn’t get into. And which the curculating medical “powders” of more or less suspect provenance or effect couldn’t cure. He treated people for what he thought they were worth (psycho-somatically) and charged them in a similar way. He would let the out-of-towners subsidize the locals and applied a holistic perspective as far as he could. The idea was not to replace medicine, but to be a complement to it. He had both salves and powders, some with no active ingredient whatsoever, but with remarkable effect if applied to the right person at the right place, in the right way at the right time. Living in the rural community, and the nearby growing urban society, was something people had to manage to do every day, for their whole lives. It is more or less the same thing today, but admiitedly with some help from television and smartphones and central heating and isolation and research and computers and cars and less cruel politics in some places. But people are not that different. And some better pharmaceuticals that actually are good for exactly what they claim to be good for, since medicine has found out more about what will remedy exactly that dhermal or psychic or other ailment. Things are different but many things are more or less the same.
@DennisW
There are about ~20.000 commercial pilots actively flying millions if not billions of people around the world every year.
Millions or billions of people putting their lives literly in the hands of ~20.000 unknown people and very complicated technology at speeds that are on the very edge of possible limits.
Isn’t that weird?
Billions of people drive their cars but at least got their own hands on the wheel.
It’s not comparable IMO.
Suicidal pilots by chance take a lot more victims than this occasional very seldom suicidal driver who decides to takes others with him (or her) in a suicide-crash other than by driving into a tree or a lake or something like that.
Suicide is not a rational act by standard healthy means.
That’s why many ‘healthy’ people can not relate or understand why people commit something like that.
What motivates a 20 year old intelligent, good looking, wealthy, educated suicide bomber?
You tell me.
What motivated the Germanwings co-pilot?
It’s beyond our comprehension but still it happened.
The moment you step out of your car at the airport, you leave the drivers-seat and give youself to someone you don’t know, in a vehicle you don’t know will be reliable for sure.
It’s not just another car but a vehicle who travels close to the speed of sound with just a ~1mm thick hull and an awfull lot of complicted electronics and mechanics.
And just two ordinairy fragile educated humans controlling this freak of power and technology.
IMO when suicide for whatever reason is decided beyond the stage of reason there are no rational thoughts anymore about others.
The commitment is the only thing that’s real for such a person IMO.
The Germanwings co-pilot is a telling example. But all those ‘suicide’-bombers are also in a kind of same state IMO.
Suicide is not always an act of dispair and fear. It often also is a balanced decision between percieved loss and gain for oneselves and/or others.
And then it can be planned very rational and intelligent long time before the actual act.
@ROB
OKE. Clear again. I have to say I miss @Susie with here soothing touch of saying things and her keen alertness on the latest developments. But lets move one 😉
@ROB, @Ge Rijn:
“Good memory”: “Rein men”, both of you? 🙂
@DennisW:
Z would hardly have committed mass murder without taking his own life in the process.
@Johan
Regarding my name and being Dutch I sure am a ‘Rein man’. I don’t know about @ROB though but I hardly can imagine he’s a ‘Rein man’ also, reading his comments for such a long time.. But I don’t know for sure ofcourse..
Lot of curious people live in Holland 😉
@Ge Rijn:
I was alluding (in ROB’s case) to the movie with, what’s his name — Dustin Hoffman –, hoping I didn’t misunderstand your exchange of words, with ROB’s final cue particularly in mind. All in good humour.
@Ge Rijn and Johan
No I’m not Dutch. I am English. BTW, I voted to remain in the EU.
Holland is an interesting country. God made the World, but the Dutch made Holland (please excuse the over-used comment, but I couldn’t resist)
The World owes the Dutch rather a lot. They were pioneers in the way back when, to wit New Hollandia and New Amsterdam, to name just two examples. I could go on, but I’m sure you’ll be glad if I stop there. 🙂
@Johan
Definitely taken in good humour, don’t worry! And modesty is one attribute I have to work on. Having special powers can go to one’s head, if one isn’t careful.
@ROB:
Netherlands’ seafarers and expatriats are the Dutch who lost in Musical Chairs. 🙂
I am asleep. Or should have been.
The story that Zaharie had made no social plans for the weeks after the flight was reported by the Sunday Times in June 2014.
It’s behind a paywall, but there are mirror sites on the internet
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Asia/article1425492.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_06_21
It was the same article that first broke the story that a route to a small runway (McMurdo?) was found on the flight simulator.
@Nederland
Brings up a good question, who figured out the flight sim cases pointed to McMurdo? FBI, MY, or IG?
@TBill, I think “figured out” is the wrong word. Victor Iannello and Richard Godfrey proposed this idea; it has very little appeal to me.
@Nederland, I think we have to be very suspicious of this report. Its significance is so obvious that if it were true I feel that more would have been made of it. Also, I am given pause by the reference to small runway in the middle of the ocean, since there is no such thing.
@All, Here are some statistics. http://planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm. @Ge Rijn, flying is a very safe way to travel. Statistics show that. Being picky – like me – about what airliner one flies, is not a bad thing, IMO. There are many shoddy countries, with shoddy aircraft and shoddy trained 3rd tier pilots, with shoddy security that undoubtedly will increase the chances of your life being in peril.
@Keffertje
I was going to respond to Ge Rijn with stats, and then I thought the better of it. He is Dutch, and there is no way to convince a Dutch person of anything.
I did come across an interesting statistic Googling for the stats, and that is you are far more likely to die in a gas line explosion than an airplane crash. Even worse is medical malpractice, which is now the third leading cause of death in the US behind cancer and heart disease. Medical malpractice is ahead of accidents of all kinds including all vehicles. You are safer in a bar in Oakland than the Mayo clinic.
Hi everyone!
As always, appreciate all the conversations and debate which will lead us to 370. A few questions
Some have mentioned mike chillit and debris … has anyone looked further into this? … seems promising if it turns out to be true
If the search area is moved north between batavia and Zenith does that lend to any previous pings or acoustic recordings which was discussed early on? Or has this been debunked. Would the search be easier from a more northern location or is the terrain/ conditions similar to current area?
Thanks all!
@DennisW, I will take the bar in Oakland 🙂 Of course some idiot could drive into the bar or an aircraft could crash on the bar or the bartender could be slow in refilling my drink. That would be bad. The Dutch are stubborn for sure, but very levelheaded people. My grandfather taught me a wise thing in life: when it’s your time, it’s your time. My son Tim is in medical school and he tells me there are 5000 really nasty ways one can exit this life. Best to just enjoy it whilst you can 🙂
@DennisW @JS @Ge Rijn
Sorry, I meant to type I see DG as the biggest problem here not DG is… the joys of posting in the early hours whilst half asleep!
Anyway, Dennis said DG is irrelevant. It is over 1400nm from the approximate location of the FMT. ..
And JS adds: “Whatever action occurred as a result of MH370 not arriving on Chinese radar, figure if it was a western flight it would have taken several more hours.” (The same point Dennis makes, I think)
MH370 did not arrive on Chinese radars as a result of the turn back, and as a consequence, the Chinese military would not have sprung into action – no reason to – no unusual activity, no direct threat. But a hijacked Europe-bound MAS would get tracked by DG radar almost immediately or soon after the FMT because the focus would automatically be on the Andaman Sea.
So in that sense – the whole point of a Beijing bound flight is to create confusion – buy enough time to sidetrack DG and run along to your destination in the SIO (unless the destination is DG itself – but let’s not go there…)
It is telling, Dennis, that your disagreement stems from how DG would respond to a wayward aircraft, not with the strength of DG’s military radar capabilities (which I assume must cover a reasonable distance).
I’d argue that at the very least, DG would start tracking the wayward aircraft in real time if it knew of the FMT early on
@All, Interesting article on pilot fatigue case in the UK. http://atwonline.com/labor/thomas-cook-pilot-wins-fatigue-tribunal-case.
@Christine
While I have no idea how Chillit derived the Batavia Seamount terminus, I think it is very promising. Both Victor/Godfrey (McMurdo) and I (Cocos) derived flight paths to that general area before Chillit published his drifter data (which is very interesting, BTW).
@Keffertje
I spent a great deal of time in Eindhoven developing car navigation systems (long before they became as common as they are now). I found the best way to confuse a Dutch person is to tell them they are right. The fact that some non-Dutch person would say something they agree with is totally confounding to them.
@Sajid
How could DG possibly track MH370 at a distance of more than 1400nm? The horizon of primary radar is 300nm at best for an aircraft at FL350.
@Christine
I believe Mike Chillit does feel the original black box “pings” could possibly have been true, both or one of the Chinese and/or ATSB sounds perhaps was real. The terrain is a mixed bag with a very deep trench. Chillit is a bit north of VictorI’s pin.
@all
Some sunrise time calcs:
Approx. MH370 crash time 00:19 UTC
23:14 UTC sunrise at VictorI McMurdo path end (26.9S 100.5E)
23:57 UTC sunrise at ATSB end point (38S 88.5E)
Thus Victor’s pin was in sunlight a full hour before MH370 crash time. Even out west to the ATSB pin, there would have been early sunlight at the crash time.
@Dennis
“How could DG possibly track MH370 at a distance of more than 1400nm? The horizon of primary radar is 300nm at best for an aircraft at FL350.”
Not impossible by ship and airborne assets, and I would expect such surveilance around DG.