A few things have happened recently in MH370 world that are worth taking note of.
No FMT. The seabed search in the southern Indian Ocean is all over but the shouting, and as a result I see that a consensus is forming that there could have been no “final major turn” into the southern Indian Ocean. Rather, if the plane went south, it must have loitered somewhere beyond the Malacca Strait until after 18.40 before finally flying a straight southerly path from 19:40 onward. This loiter, following a high-speed dash across the Malay Peninsula and up the strait, is quite bizarre, given that no attempt was made by anyone on board the plane to contact the ground, either to ask for help or to negotiate a hostage situation. So the presumption of a loiter doesn’t really shed light on motivation, it does effectively put yet another nail in the coffin of accident/malfunction scenarios.
More of the secret Royal Malaysian Police report released. Mick Rooney, aka @airinvestigate, has released a portion labelled “Folder 6: Audio and Other Records.” The new section contains an expert report analyzing the cockpit/ATC audio up to 17:21, which concludes (with less than 100% confidence) that it was probably Zaharie who uttered the final words “Good night, Malaysia 370.” It also includes ACARS data and the Inmarsat logs which had already been released back in 2014. In perusing the document I was not able to identify anything that would alter our collective understanding of the case, but I hope that others will offer their own assessments. And I applaud Mick for being the only one with the moral backbone to release this information. I am sure that more will follow. UPDATE: The next batch is here: “Folder 5: Aircraft Record and DCA Radar Data.”
Debris trail goes cold. I’ve plotted, above, the number of pieces of debris that have been found each month since MH370 disappeared. After the first piece of debris was found in July, 2015, a smattering of further pieces was found until April, May, and June of this year, when the number spiked and then dropped off again before ceasing altogether. This is a puzzling distribution, since drift models show that the gyres of the southern Indian Ocean act as a great randomizer, taking things around and around and spitting them out after widely varying periods of time. Would expect, therefore, to see the number of pieces found to gradually swell and then fall off again.
There is a complicating factor to this assumption, of course. Even if the pieces do arrive in a certain pattern, overlaid on top of this is the effect of an independent variable: the degree to which people are actively searching for them. It must be noted that a considerable amount of the June spike is attributable to Blaine Alan Gibson’s astonishing haul on the beaches of Madagascar that month. Indeed, Gibson by himself remains responsible for more than half of the 22 pieces of debris found thus far.
Earlier this week, several frustrated family members announced that they would be organizing their own beachcombing expedition, to take place next month. If their efforts prove less fruitful than Blaine Alan Gibson’s, it may raise questions as to what exactly was the secret to Gibson’s success.
@TBill: Can you think of a reason someone would ‘adjust’ fuel upwards during climb, and then dump it after reaching top of climb?
@TBill: Apart from the reasons Captain ZS may or may not have had for adjusting the fuel quantity in that simulation, what would have been the value of that simulation in preparation for MH370?
@Gysbreght
I’d have to study those fuel variation cases, I have not focused much on it. But I am pretty good at thinking up possible reasons.
On the growing surge of political Islamism in South East Asia – including(especially) Malaysia:
“Marcus Mietzner, an associate professor at Australian National University in Canberra, said it was telling that organizations in Jakarta not affiliated with hard-line Islamic elements had argued that Mr. Basuki should be held accountable for blasphemy, as have Indonesians he has met who work or study in Australia.
“For me, this shows that the racial and religious sentiment have deeply penetrated the educated middle classes,” he said.”
Just me talking now, but that sounds like Shah. This article also touches on the MO of one Anwar Ibrahim.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/world/asia/jakarta-protest-tied-to-faith-may-have-deeper-links-to-secular-politics.html?_r=0
@TBill
I wouldn’t rely on MSFS for accurate modeling of phugoids. The best resource we have for that is the Exner test in the real sim. It showed what happens with every stable airframe (which 777 is, despite the fly-by-wire), which is that in a steady trim state, a plane will descend in a phugoid pattern (airspeed drops, nose lowers, airspeed increases, nose raises, airspeed drops, nose lowers and so on until you’re out of altitude).
I can’t remember the angle at which Exner’s sim hit the water but I can say with confidence that it would purely be a function of which part of the phugoid cycle it was in when it reached sea level. They made several runs and probably every one was different.
If you’re falling flat, that would indicate to me that some substantial amount of both up elevator and pitch trim are keeping you in that attitude, right down to the ground.
Are you hand flying with a joystick or the mouse? If you want to keep at the sim flying, I’d recommend a yoke and pedals. Yoke much more forgiving than stick in a crosswind landing.
Gysbreght
Posted November 29, 2016 at 3:20 PM
@TBill: Can you think of a reason someone would ‘adjust’ fuel upwards during climb, and then dump it after reaching top of climb?
To watch the “cool” contrails.
@Gysbreght
“Can you think of a reason someone would adjust fuel upwards during climb, and then dump it after reaching top of climb?”
I am focus on the climb in the area between 3N and 5N in your fuel consumption graph prior post as an example. What I learned from Victor’s recent paper, with reference to the map I provided you previously of the IGARI turn, is you can just pick up that little black airplane icon with your mouse and move forward on the flight path. This would be done, instead of getting a beer while waiting for the flight to progress, you just could just place the plane further ahead on the flight path.
So we must realize re: the sim flight path the user might have advanced the plane manually without fuel consumption, or he actually added fuel (but it seems he advanced the “chess piece” foward). Til now, I have been using the beer method that Dennis mentioned while I wait.
@Matt
I just got a Logitech joystick today from Amazon. What yoke would you recommend? I read about it but did not see it.
@Keffertje
I will try and find the reference. Quite possibly I was mistaken in that there was an early reference to a roster swap which never actually happened.
@TBill: He probably did both. The altitude graph shows that he must have added fuel or changed the altitude between points. Victor’s distance graph shows that he dragged the airplane symbol across the map with the mouse, or changed the coördinates manually.
Victor still has to address the Dynamic Pressure anomalies that David has pointed out.
@matty – Perth:
It is the other way around. Shah was politically secular but of course a muslim culturally. Ibrahim is secular liberal too although I believe his party cooperated with some parties with a muslim profile.
But the the big muslim parties are already in government if I am not mistaken. But equalling “islamism” of all kinds with islam or muslim confession is like equalling Christianity with the Irish Republican Army. There are some necessary steps there inbetween. The people of a country will normally have a pretty good sense about what politics could be expexted from a party with this or that label, which are historically given and given in relation to each other on a left to right political scale. Ibrahim and his lot (and Shah) are not opposing the existing rule from the side of orthodoxy or revolution but from the side of liberalism and social democracy. Give and take. A bunch of their followers might have crossed the line regarding the latter (vocally), but they are politically to the left, not to religious fanatics. The religious fanatics on their side would probably do anything to avoid Anwar, as a secular politics would be their worst enemy, and thus the kind of coercive political manifestation apparently going on in Indonesia, where the religious extremes are putting pressure on govt. and people to move away from secular positions.
That’s how I understand it.
Matty – Perth said;
“…that sounds like Shah. This article also touches on the MO of one Anwar Ibrahim.”
This assertion is false, and the article cited, in fact, does not mention
Shah, Ibrahim, or even Malaysia.
I think it’s appropriate to acknowledge that ‘Matty – Perth‘ fails to
inform us of his particular political and personal biases when he drops in
here to make like posts.
A failed political candidate and member of the Australian political party
‘Family First’, (whom the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia has described
as of the ‘Lunatic Right’), Matthew should look more to righting wrongs in
his own country – an example being the numerous victims of Family Firsts
(only, & now former) Federal politican, Bob Day, recipient of fines from
the NSW Fair Trading authority in regard to the failure of that politicians
construction company, of which it is now known large ‘donations’ were paid
from the accounts of that company to ‘Family First’.
Matthew L**** perhaps does not realize that his attacks on Malaysia (an
ally of Australia) and its politicians are unlikely to be viewed as an asset
by the office of whatever politician he may seek employment in. To judge
by recent media reports, it seems Australian political ‘staffers’ who may
‘taint’ their Australian politician bosses with controversy, end up being
shoved out the back door as expeditiously as possible…
(Note; Jeff may remove such of my comment above as he sees fit, although
given that now the established practive is that politcal or other comments
are commonly allowed, there should be no reason for him to do so…)
@matty – Perth: continued…
And any party (also Ibrahim’s) in a country like Malaysia which aspires to political power will have to put on a muslim shroud in some instances not to alienate the muslim majority with their family values etc. And hence the Malaysian Court of Appeals apparently found it necessary to make the picture more “black and white”, as I believe sodomy and family values are not really going hand in hand on any poltical stage anywhere.
@buyerninety:
Investigating the political scene behind the possibly political motivations of Shah must be allowed in my opinion (although it’s for Jeff to say), and thus also certainly commenting on someone’s statements in that regard. Otherwise the culprit will remain dangling there as the usual suspect islamist and nothing more, as he tended to be here a while back. There is still some distance to discussing Trump and what political sides in Malaysia are preferrable in principle.
On my part, I see Shah’s political convictions and affiliations as harmless and democratic in the bigger (international) setting, and (schematicaly) thus not believable as a motive behind any (political) hijacking. To me (if anything) it speaks more to the benefit of a silent protest extended suicide. And this in part because the “harmlessness” of Shah’s political views might have proved to be less so, to himself and his family, in his everyday, social, professional life. If Ibrahim’s party and their followers became politically and socially stigmatized after the last elections.
But the political scene in Malaysia is peculiar, but it might be because it is peculiar times, and party politics is not always what it looks like. You will for instance necessarily have to address and deal with (reactionary) Muslim political currents. Shah had likley not an initiated perspective on these issues, so he might have been tossed around by circumstances which were over his head. This is speculative, but as a filter through which to observe him and his (possible) motivations.
RE: Dynamic pressure anomaly in Z’s HDD data files.
For ease of reference, the table below compares the DynPress values in the sim data files to the values of dynamic pressure and impact pressure for the simulation values of altitude and airspeed.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/r8hsaoczn4pjh3v/DynPress.pdf?dl=0
@Keffertje
I did post a newspaper article suggesting a last minute roster swap but it included names so the privacy issues meant it was appropriately deleted. The roster swap has been denied by MAS.
@Johan, @Buyerninety, As it relates to MH370, I would not put it past the MY government to be involved somehow. If they can frame Anwar and trump up some charges they are sure in a position to do a lot more. Framing Shah, in a subtle fashion without pointing a real finger, by planting SIM data or removing it, is something that I view as very viable. And perhaps hiring 2 Ukranian thugs to do the job for them, well, viable again. Najib & Company are crooks, liars and manipulators and framing people for their own political gain is 1st nature to them.
@SteveB, Thank you for replying. I think ZS was rostered for that flight and anything to the contrary was just tabloid gossip, spinning old wives tales.
For those criticizing, evaluating @DennisW
I must say this. Firstly @ROB, you may want to rethink you intuitive ability, secondly, it is of great importance to note, tread very carefully when confidently presenting intention, motive or perceived understanding of Captain Zaharie.
@DennisW references to his alcohol consumption were part & parcel of his presentation, not a reality. Sadly, many here began to believe it based on his words, because we all know people with difficulty controlling their alcohol always discuss it right?….wrong.
This is an amazing example of manipulation by illustration in it’s simplicity and so easily accomplished. Many of us cross the line here occasionally, especially the ones that have been at it for over 2 1/2 years, our repercussions inevitable.
@DennisW will only deliver what he himself is willing to take and I side with that righteousness. Get over it, make some minor delivery adjustments and get your as• back here Dennis
@Gysbreght
You are correct maybe altitude was changed as the plane was moved forward. All of the values on the World/Map tab (alt, position, heading) can be changed on that screen, fuel load can be changed at any time, and time/date can be changed at any time in the simulation.
So there can be discontinuities. Except for historic G-forces of the flight, many things can be changed.
@Susie Crowe
You said “I must say this. Firstly @ROB, you may want to rethink you intuitive ability, secondly, it is of great importance to note, tread very carefully when confidently presenting intention, motive or perceived understanding of Captain Zaharie”.
Firstly, I want to say I’m honoured that you think of me first. However, you remark appears to me to have the aura of a threat, rather than a piece of advice, and that immediately makes me bristle.
One question – where you a bully at school? My intuition is telling me you could well have been. Keep your bullying and intimidation to Facebook. It’s not welcome here. I am entitled to air my opinion on the subject. Sorry if you cant take it.
@ROB
My mistake, I apologize. I forgot @all before secondly, it was not intended to read that way and I can understand you would take offense.
@ROB
No, I was a Pom Pom girl if I can remember that far back, school for me was decades ago
@TBill
It’s a strange thing, but debris recovered so far, suggest to me that the aircraft must have contacted the water tail-first. The “no-step” fragment from the RH horizontal stabilizer upper skin, and the (almost) adjacent red and white fin panel indicate that the RH horizontal stabilizer received a strong impact from below, strong enough to make it rotate upwards and strike the fin.
@Susie Crowe
Now my imagination is running riot! Always did have a soft spot for cheerleaders 🙂 Comes from a repressed upbringing.
@Susie Crowe
I forgive you of course.
@Susie Crowe
Someone who is demeaning and ridiculing others on a regular basis and adds contributors to a personal ‘whacko-list’ if they have an opinion which not suites him should expect to have the ball thrown back on him ones in a while.
If he’s not man enough to stand his own ‘medicine’ yes, then he better leave the stage.
IMO Jeff and others have been and are quite forgiving on this behaviour and have shown respect to his knowledge and honesty and still do.
This guy presents himself as a American hard-ass. No excusses for whining or giving up on something.
Seems he cann’t stand the heat himself afterall.
The ‘Black Daniels’ was meant as cynical humor. If he takes this personally he just might have a slight drinking problem.. 😉
I don’t care as long he contributes in the thoughtfull ways he did often also.
@DennisW, Come on, swallow that turd :). @SusieC, Thank you, you make so much sense.
@all
There is no truth to the assumption that the “heat in the kitchen” has affected me in any way. I have the hide of a rhino when it comes to criticism and disparaging remarks. It is also true that we are different people at the keyboard (including me) than we are in real life. I am sure that any of us could sit across the table from one another and have a much different discussion than would take place on line.
What set me off, frankly, was MH’s out of the blue decision to make a snarky and disparaging remark about Trump for no reason related to any topic in this forum. i bashed him for it, and not because I am a Trump supporter (far from it actually).
The real issue for me is the wall of resistance on this forum relative to the notion of Z’s involvement. It is simply not possible to make progress when walls are put in place. Unless that notion can be accorded the same respect as a spoof (Jeff’s passion) or some mechanical issue (you know who you are), it makes little sense for me to contribute here.
I don’t have the slightest feeling of ill will toward anyone here, and my panties are not wadded up. To keffertje’s comment that analytics are manly, I would counter that, while true, girls look far cuter than guys when looking at a map.
@Ge Rijn, I took your remark in the spirit you intended.
@Tbill
May be different nowadays but when I was doing the sim stuff CHProducts yoke & pedals were the gold standard. You just need a good way to mount the yoke because it gets cranked all over the place when it’s gusty.
In fact there are quite some bloggers who went silent which had interesting views and contributions IMO.
@Susie from England with her sharp eye for everything that went on and alerted us.
@Matty Perth with the valuable ‘Australian towell connection’ 😉 (cynical humor)
@Brock McEwen with his valuable views and drift-analyzis against all odds.
@Rand from Japan/China with his thoughtfull comments.
@VictorI offcourse
@MPat who served us with his eye-opening drift-analyzis (IMO)
To name a view.
I like this blog because it’s not all about ‘numbers, facts, statistics, science’.
It’s also about creativity. And I believe creativity is the well of finding anwsers in the end. With the help of knowledge and science. Not the other way around.
It’s just nice to see this all evolving with all this egos trying to find anwsers together.
@DennisW, You are so handsome when you are angry! Slap them all! I have not discounted ZS, not by a long shot. Circumstantial evidence is real and its there. I agree people have to open up to the possibility no matter how hard it is to swallow. BUT, smart Dennis, there is so much that muddies the waters. Lets just keep at it! Even VI said he does not exclude a frame up. The data will lead us to it, eventually. Just a matter of time. So glad I didn’t work at TN and stutter making your coffee.
@Ge Rijn, Well put!
@jeffw – since I am identified as the one who “set off” DennisW, and I missed his posting in response, can you forward it to me privately so I can consider withdrawing my remark.
@DennisW
Back to business?
I don’t see your ‘wall of resistence’ on involvement of Zaharie.
Many people here don’t reject him as a prime-suspect including me.
But there is still no way we can definitely pin him as the one who planned and executed it all.
Still there is not enough proof IMO.
And if there was proof will it help to find the plane?
If the SIM-points actualy represent one ‘rehearsal’ flight it’s still a quite different flight from what was actualy flown.
Possibly the only similarity could have been the end way-point heading. McMurdo or possibly the 6th point in the SIM.
Everything between 18:25, FMT and 00:19 would still remain unknown.
It could limit options in flight paths but without a certain FMT and the assumption in this case of an all piloted flight many options stay possible.
I mean: Everything between 18:25, FMT and 00:19 would remain ‘uncertain’ instead of ‘unknown’.. Slight but essential difference..
@Dennis
Good you are back, I knew you would though. We all are stuck with this self assigned task to solve this mystery.
“The real issue for me is the wall of resistance on this forum relative to the notion of Z’s involvement. It is simply not possible to make progress when walls are put in place. Unless that notion can be accorded the same respect as a spoof (Jeff’s passion) or some mechanical issue (you know who you are), it makes little sense for me to contribute here.”
Relating to a similar statement as the above I asked this question before: What exactly would change, what progress would you expect when we all would be on the same page as you are?
@DennisW, @RetiredF4, First of all, my spoof theory gets zero respect, here and everywhere else. But if you want to take your MH370 theory public, you’d better be ready to cry yourself to sleep.
Second, I’ve said all along that I feel that if it isn’t a spoof, it must be a Zaharie suicide run. It may not be everyone’s favorite, and I know that a lot of people are uncomfortable hanging him without a fair trial, but I don’t think anyone can or has said that it’s impossible.
When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
Nothing is impossible in a virtual reality.
Shah is clear as the summer daylight.
Something else happened.
@MH
“@jeffw – since I am identified as the one who “set off” DennisW, and I missed his posting in response, can you forward it to me privately so I can consider withdrawing my remark.”
Trust me. It is not worth it. The statement has no value to anyone. I was out of control which happens from time to time. Let’s move on.
@RetF4
“Relating to a similar statement as the above I asked this question before: What exactly would change, what progress would you expect when we all would be on the same page as you are?”
Good question. The answer is probably none. It just gets tiresome to be assigned to a “lynch mob” (not as bad as being assigned to the whacko category) when you are sincerely trying to be helpful. As you correctly surmised, I was being whiney.
@all
I hope it does not go unnoticed how supremely positive Jeff Wise is, rarely waiving that optimism. He continually puts his theory’s out there and has taken a beating for it more than once, without complaint. I respect the heck out of him for his contributions and very thankful for his willingness to tolerate us.
“theories”
@Susie, Thank you, that’s very kind and it means the world to me.
@Susie Crowe – well said.
@DennisW – in trying to being “helpful” why don’t you try to put some effort analyzing the “Spoofing” theory by taking down your own “walls of resistance”. After all its unbecoming of you with your self proclaimed Rhino-hide being all whiney.
I spent time reviewing those flight simulator reports as a case of maybe I might learn something new if the SIO case as tighter. alas.
@MH
I would claim that i was the very first to suggest a spoof way back when on the Duncan site. I have had it in mind for a long while. The debris finds make it untenable, IMO.
@DennisW – IFF the debris wasn’t planted. The debris is full of issues.
@all
A simple and interesting SkyVector flight path is:
APASI NOBEY
This path is basically equal to Victor’s Car Nicobar to McMurdo path, just slightly offset. But the APASI/NOBEY path goes directly over COCOS and POLUM. So APASI/POLUM is a substitute path with similar heading.
Perhaps MH370 turned onto the POLUM flight path south towards Perth, as a slightly modified version of Iannello/Godfrey path towards McMurdo. I am assuming ending on a normal flight path might have been an objective.
@keffettje:
With one left thumb free at 03:25 am: when ot comes to cover-up, sure, but MAY / Najib would hardly down a MAS flight casually. He is no Kim-il whatever. Asian competitors/oligarcs would be more likely there. But how do you make that happen? Not with spoofing.
Glad to notice the cozy atmosphere here going into December. Why don’t you all go make a record or something.
@Dennis, I’m curious to know why you think someone capable of spoofing BFO data would not or could not plant debris.