A few things have happened recently in MH370 world that are worth taking note of.
No FMT. The seabed search in the southern Indian Ocean is all over but the shouting, and as a result I see that a consensus is forming that there could have been no “final major turn” into the southern Indian Ocean. Rather, if the plane went south, it must have loitered somewhere beyond the Malacca Strait until after 18.40 before finally flying a straight southerly path from 19:40 onward. This loiter, following a high-speed dash across the Malay Peninsula and up the strait, is quite bizarre, given that no attempt was made by anyone on board the plane to contact the ground, either to ask for help or to negotiate a hostage situation. So the presumption of a loiter doesn’t really shed light on motivation, it does effectively put yet another nail in the coffin of accident/malfunction scenarios.
More of the secret Royal Malaysian Police report released. Mick Rooney, aka @airinvestigate, has released a portion labelled “Folder 6: Audio and Other Records.” The new section contains an expert report analyzing the cockpit/ATC audio up to 17:21, which concludes (with less than 100% confidence) that it was probably Zaharie who uttered the final words “Good night, Malaysia 370.” It also includes ACARS data and the Inmarsat logs which had already been released back in 2014. In perusing the document I was not able to identify anything that would alter our collective understanding of the case, but I hope that others will offer their own assessments. And I applaud Mick for being the only one with the moral backbone to release this information. I am sure that more will follow. UPDATE: The next batch is here: “Folder 5: Aircraft Record and DCA Radar Data.”
Debris trail goes cold. I’ve plotted, above, the number of pieces of debris that have been found each month since MH370 disappeared. After the first piece of debris was found in July, 2015, a smattering of further pieces was found until April, May, and June of this year, when the number spiked and then dropped off again before ceasing altogether. This is a puzzling distribution, since drift models show that the gyres of the southern Indian Ocean act as a great randomizer, taking things around and around and spitting them out after widely varying periods of time. Would expect, therefore, to see the number of pieces found to gradually swell and then fall off again.
There is a complicating factor to this assumption, of course. Even if the pieces do arrive in a certain pattern, overlaid on top of this is the effect of an independent variable: the degree to which people are actively searching for them. It must be noted that a considerable amount of the June spike is attributable to Blaine Alan Gibson’s astonishing haul on the beaches of Madagascar that month. Indeed, Gibson by himself remains responsible for more than half of the 22 pieces of debris found thus far.
Earlier this week, several frustrated family members announced that they would be organizing their own beachcombing expedition, to take place next month. If their efforts prove less fruitful than Blaine Alan Gibson’s, it may raise questions as to what exactly was the secret to Gibson’s success.
@DennisW, You are spot on that if ZS did this, he would not have worried about detection. We have figured out what MY is about in less than 3 years, he had a whole lifetime under his belt. I doubt “competency” was a word he used at any point in time to describe MY, MAS, ATC or anything else for that matter. He would have gotten his gram from taunting them to no end. Interception could have been risk to a point, but that did not happen either.
Possible find by next of kin combing the beaches of Madagascar:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/08/possible-mh370-debris-found-by-relative-of-disappeared-passenger
@Ge Rijn
Thanks for your reply!
There’s another (sigh ;)) idea I’d like to run past you. I feel like I should frame this somehow so it doesn’t seem too ridiculous (maybe, only, at first).
There has been discussion about a possible ‘loiter’/’circling/holding pattern of fairly considerable length, possibly above the andamans.
How absurd is the idea of a hijacking and then, a parachute out of the plane, possibly at this point during the loiter, with subsequent pickup by helicopter or boat? Whilst many things are highly unusual about this disappearance, let’s keep in mind that whoever is responsible made sure that the plane (and the number of people dead) was extremely well disguised. We really don’t know at this point (more than 1000 days after!!!) whether really everyone on board is actually dead, since we don’t have bodies.
@Havelock Hammond, If you keep putting down a different email address in the comment form I’m going to have to keep approving each comment by hand.
Well, that was coming a mile away and it is really disappointing to see that unfold.
Having frustrations with the lack of full RMP release is completely understandable, but it appears that someone with noble endeavours just got taken out as collateral damage. The most capable person in the room.
@Ventus45
I found the Flight schedule on the web for both MH370 and MH17 and posted here and made copies on my hard drive.
Here is LINK again:
http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/content/dam/malaysia-airlines/mas/PDF/MH%20November%202013.pdf
It does seem a little like the simulator run at N10 is designed for westerly take off going to 40k feet at N10, so for the IGARI case the plane does not go as far as N10.
@HavelockHammond
Although I realise I sometimes put comments here that seem a bit provocative or outlandish it’s always my main objective to add to a constructive discussion exploring possible solutions.
I try to avoid adding views and comments that only could work distracting and confusing.
So in this case I won’t comment on your substance.
@DennisW
FYI I also endorse Goodnight Malaysian 370 and that is my adopted theory of the flight, for all of my posts here. Believe Ewan Wilson is the lead author and pilot. Of course, he qualified: based on what we know now, but that assessment could change if we ever learn anything new.
Really not much is new since his book in Aug_2014…he had the sim studies, 2nd woman and everything in there.
I think the psychologist discussion of possible pilot suicide causes is interesting.
@VictorI:
Yes, you will need to rehearse whatever you do that is out of the ordinary.
I think I understand the rest, thanks. There is to me (regarding McMurdo) still a slight grey area concerning how Z perceived his own sim and the virtual world in it. He had used it for quite some time if I am not mistaken. But you do got a point that he would likely have to choose a destination to get down there at all. And a touch on the 7th arc on a route to McMurdo does sound like something more than a coincidence, undoubtedly.
(A possible peculiarity in connection to that: I don’t have any exact tools to help me, but when I continue the great (small?) circle route from Port Blair to McMurdo (and all the way round and back to Port Blair), I pass dangerously close to Manhattan. Might be worth 5 minutes of your time to calculate on that.)
@TBill: “not a game”.
I realize that, but there are still some instructive missions or something, aren’t there? It might be a version, it might be something Z never saw, but I definietly read that there are some boot camps or grade winning tasks. Any insights on that?
@Johan
I guess you can play on-line fighter games against others, but I am not ready to challenge Victor. But the spirit of Z’s and others use is more professional flying I think.
The FSX is now on Steam which is an online game company, so the idea is yes I think to play with others. Steam also has the PMDG 777 that Victor has spoke well of.
Here’s an idea of the realism using STEAM FSX and PMDG:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DD6FniT4MfY
kind of amazing the older FSX is looking so real. Nice that Steam is keeping up, and sad that MS dropped flight sim back in 2009 or so.
@McMurdo
As far as Victor’s real life MH370 simulation (as opposed to the Z sim from N10 FMT) there is an airport direct on line to NOBEY that is COCOS and POLUM also almost dead on the same path. Especially if you start from APASI.
Sky Vector has two APASI’s for some reason so it’s a little awkward to see what I am talking about.
@HavelockHammond:
I have for quite some time now tried to argue exactly contrary to your skepticism in your first post. I can’t repeat it here, but I can tell you the logic behind it for me: It started as the revelation if you like that the only really possible suspect was also the least likely one — from all perspectives other than opportunity. The road from there for me has been to turn every stone and argue around a scenario that takes that into account to see if it holds water. Pinning it on Z right-or-wrong has not been my cup of tea. Little right-or-wrong is. Few here, really no one, has that perspective, but we do realize that it can appear like that for soemone casually dropping by. We have relieved ourselves of all or most of the disclaimers, but we know where we have each other. And we don’t allow cheap shots against no one. Except Malay authorities and ATSB perhsps. I don’t belong to those claiming the Malay to be wholly incompetent though — but I do think that Z knew them well and knew how to exploit their expectations and weaknesses, if you like. He was a very experienced pilot. I’d be glad to free him any day if and when it is obvious that someone or something else was behind (but I myself live to close to Putin to neither believe nor dare suggest it was him who did this). To me, most of it (Z doing it) makes sense today, although I kind of started in your end, or as someone who felt it necessary to protect him against some prejudice and preconceptions.
About your analogy: I hope you keep maturing as psychiatrist. Your analogy is for college students, if you excuse me. It is not about playing videogames, it is about how you relate to it, how you play, and what it means to you in your life. As long as it is about recreation, pausing, relief and release of pressure etc. it is all fine, but for some it will be more, a continuous way solving problems, a compensation for real life shortcomings, a more real world than the real one (a world you are master of), and a black and white, do or die, non-negotionable way of solving problems where you never have to deal with what does not appeal to you. So it depends. And this is not “just a game” and, as Ge Rijn pointed out, Z was not just anyone in a crowd of flight-sim players. It is true that it may prove hard to show beyond doubt that Z used the sim nefariously, or that it even was him behind the simulations in question, but to me, today, that is not reason enough to stop looking and trying. The shape of it all carries the distinct mark of an experienced pilot, and I dare hardly think of what it might be if not. And given the possible embarassment of the Malay govt. there is a possible risk that few investigators will want to push hard enough, and to me, this needs to be solved, for the sake of the NoK, to get at the mass murderer, for aviation, and to put a lid on conspiracy theories and insane accusations. And finding the plane will be more important than saving the captain’s and MAS’ reputation.
@TBill:
I think you misunderstood me :-). It is really realistic, and looks good, but I wondered if McMurdo could have belonged to airfields that the sim software in some way promoted as a challenge. Might be another, less advanced, sim software.
I’d like to add that I found the data on vessels in SIO on Chillit’s site Seventh Arc interesting. I found some more when googling, origining with Chillit too I think. There seems to be some issue around what a ship might actually spot, but for me it was interesting to see that there seems to have been a few ships more down there than I expected — illegal ships unaccounted for.
Let’s let the fire catch on some, said the fireman.
@Dennis Yes, ‘Goodnight Malaysian 370’ is a worthwhile read. As it was written some time back it did not have the benefit of one probably crucial bit of information – the debris. Still, it proposes a plausible scenario but I do find it difficult to get my mind around what goal Z may have been trying to reach. It seems the Malay government carries on as usual, as well as the airline. The victims were the PAX and the co-pilot. Either something went significantly off the rails or we are missing something significant – something that is not related to nor will be revealed by locating the wreckage.
Perhaps people are looking in the wrong spot in more than one way.
Why would anyone (including Z) take the plane – not use it in an attach, not claim credit, not leave some indication of motive, not use the PAX as hostages ….. was there something on board the plane that someone wanted?
One thing I noted in this book. It seems Z did the walk around (kick the tires and check for bird’s nests in the engine intakes). Is it usual for the Captain (Z in particular) to do that? Perhaps he was giving Fariq Hamid at break on what was for him an important flight.
So …. (this is clearly a wild outlier) .. perhaps Z was never on-board the flight. Someone intercepted him on his way back to the cockpit and a ‘look alike’ was substituted. It could be possible to sneak quickly into the cockpit behind the cabin crew without detection (risky). There remains some controversy about the identity of voices heard in communications with the ground.
How would someone know that they could intercept Z at that time – depends partially on the answer to the question above.
Please, can someone, anyone, please tell Mike Chillit that his delusional ramblings about debris on the shores of St Brandon are a complete nonsense.
Here is a different photo of his “debris”. Clearly not MH370 . . . https://www.flickr.com/photos/urs_i/24245953402/
And as for his pseudo scientific BS about spectral imaging . . . . .
@TBill
Thanks for the link – got it – 184 pages.
@Johan, When we do the post-mortem on this most tragic event, we clearly see complete incompetence on the side of the MY government, MAS, Military and ATC. The entire sequence of events was handled so poorly it borders on being pitiful. Najib couldn’t even rob from his own people without getting caught. What an idiot. Added to this, everyone has been lied to, ATC tapes have been doctored, and pertinent information has been withheld or twisted, on purpose. None of this is a figment of anyone’s imagination, it is based on what we know and is slap in the face obvious.
On top of that the MY government does not tolerate any push back politically or otherwise. They will trump up some charges against you and threaten you. If I didn’t know better I would believe they were potty trained by those pathetic Russians who adopt the same kind of behaviour. I live in a free country, with a true democracy and freedom of speech and political opinions. I can call our prime minister a dip shit anytime I want. I can rally against him or anyone else anytime I want. Are there ordinary Russian people who would like to call Putin a dip shit? No doubt, but it would be equal to personal suicide. It is no different under Najib and his consorts.
Being politically oppressed and having to fight for democracy can grow like a cancer. Experiencing the negative consequences of injustice can drive people over the edge. Not because they are political fanatics but because they experience what is denied them as personal affront.
Anyone who claims not to be convinced of MY government incompetence is either in serious denial or is incapable of drawing conclusions based on fact.
If anyone had the means to disappear mh370 it would be the MY gov’t. Two shifty characters driving this whole thing by generating bad radar images connected to bad satellite data under the guise of Inmarsat ….
@All
It seems now more smaller interior cabin fragments get found. And indeed Blain Gibson is directly involved in the search.
At least the NoK have an experienced guide to help them.
Great respect for their effort. It must be emotionally quite difficult for them.
I wish them all the luck and strenght they need.
https://twitter.com/h1ppyg1rl
(with thanks to @HippyGirl again)
@Keffertje
It must be an apallingly oppressive regime to live under, when a senior and respected airline captain uses an airliner with 238 innocent occupants as a political weapon against his own government.
And I echo your comments on Putin’s Russia. It was bad enough under the communist yoke. A while ago, a Russian citizen had the temerity to say Putin’s face reminded him of his dog’s. It got into the Press, and he had to go into hiding!
Man is born free, yet everywhere he is in chains.
@Keffertje:
I was referring most of all to Malay behaviour during the night of the disappearance. I believe few countries would have behaved differently in some of the aspects, depending perhaps on geopolitical alert level and general professionalism and some more. I think it factored in that they knew who was the pilot; they couldn’t expect or imagine something like that. And who could have? As for other aspects, Z knew about what he could expect in terms of reaction times. He didn’t make it easy for the people on the floors, and, as I have said before, they still seem to have a political culture where no govt. office, authority or military unit will report anything to anyone if they are not allowed to send an emissary in parade dress in a limousine to the Govt. cabinet itself. Nothing should interfere with going in good style! This of course may influence the reaction times also among the people on the floor.
And not surprisingly, the effects get, as it seems, more evident after the actual event. Others have followed that more closely but the lack of professionalism is shining through is blinding.
Whether everything in MY is boondocks country and everyone is backwards (for similar or other reasons) I couldn’t, and wouldn’t, say. You get that in many places off and on, although we associate the flight industry with a higher level of diligence through-out the professional structure. Clearly Malaysia is in need of modernization, and the type of leadership Najib seems to represent (seemingly: I lead because I am philphy rich and good for no other) is not optimal. But I know too little, know too little of his crimes and misdeeds, the response he gets from the majority of the population, and principally I think for my own part that I would want the Malaysians to correct their system themselves (with a little help from the West certainly). But there is a historic and contemporary democratic deficit, definitely. And a culture of fear and repression that is unbecoming and highly dangerous. Still, this is not Europe North by North West. ( –And even there, in a country bordering France, Britain and Germany, if you walk through the capital’s quarters with comic book stores beside a lace shop, beside an African antiques shop, beside a Trappist pub, beside a lace shop…, wherever you go, in houses that are falling apart, you can sense it is not that far away –). But as I understand it, changing MY political culture might prove to be a challenge. It is sad, but who said the the world was funny? Yes they have showed lack of competence.
And yes I think Z might have been touched in a profound way by this all. And I think he might have been infuriated by what he saw as a criminal offense, and/or suffered repression himself (professionally?) for exhibiting his political preferences. But he is not the kind of guy that would sacrifice himself only for a political cause. If so, one would expect the act to be politically explicit. And killing innocent people is not a passable road for others to follow. It will, at the end of the day, only reinforce the power of the political majority. It has the shape of a mute protest but it is terrorism and in that sense it is an act of presumption. But I would expect it to have other personal sides to it.
@Keffertje:
What is the dernier cri on the ATC tapes by the way? I haven’t had the chance to follow that.
I will have to update the debris-recovery chart above. The NOK beachcombing trip is now on its 7th day and multiple pieces of debris have been found, all free of biofouling.
Grace Subathirai Nathan posted a report about yesterday’s activities on Facebook (goo.gl/Y3qPzd) which included this:
Uncanny.
@Jeff Wise, With that kind of luck I could have won the lottery 10 x over 🙂
@Jeff
That was my basic concern with Henrik’s Bayesian debris model. While mathematically irrefutable and elegant, it suffers from not knowing the probability that debris will be found if it were to wash ashore. My sense is that there is lot of debris out there that has not been recovered.
They should split up the groups into more regions to see how lucky the finds do follow rather than flat sandy beaches. It’s curious why no other similar like debris isn’t being reported by nearby islands.
@Ge Rijn:
“…And indeed Blain Gibson is directly involved in the search…”
As I predicted up thread, with Blain Gibson in the party, I expected the NOK to make finds, but not this quickly! There must be masses of smallish bits dotted around the coast just waiting to be collected. The kack of bio-fouling is also puzzling.
@Boris, The probability of finding something that washed ashore long ago has to be vastly higher than finding something that just washed ashore within the last half hour. One would also expect the latter to be more likely to be free of biofouling; something that just came out of the ocean, if free of biofouling, must have spent time ashore, gotten picked clean, then washed back out to sea, only to come ashore again within a few days. Truly miraculous.
@Boris
I remain untroubled by the bio-fouling or lack thereof. When you have a place on the beach and get to see literally an infinite amount of stuff that has washed up over time, you realize that bio-fouling is tiny window between when a piece of debris washes up and various creatures and forces of nature erase it. The vast majority of beach debris that I see is very clean.
@Keffertje:
“With that kind of luck I could have won the lottery 10 x over.”
I don’t think luck is anything to do with Blain’s success. It is quite obvious that the guy is psychic.
Or is there some better explanation?
@Jeff Wise
A bit uncanny indeed. Makes me curious what NoK will find on locations where/when he is not around.
It’s a pity this happens, for anyway it will cast some doubt on the objectivity of this search effort.
Had he found it a few days later on a quite different spot it would have given another impression.
This certainly feels like a ‘too good to be true’ find.
@Boris
He (Blaine) is just out there doing it. You won’t find anything unless you look for it. What it says to me is that there is simply a lot debris out there waiting to be found.
@Ge Rijn
“This certainly feels like a ‘too good to be true’ find.”
Please. Don’t even go there.
@Ge Rijn. – exactly my concern. That is why the group needs to split up and see if finding pieces statistically follow in number and type of biofoulling
@DennisW, Please don’t tell people where not to go.
@DennisW: @All:
Not just clean, but squeaky clean!
Here is an enlargement of the find…
http://oi67.tinypic.com/2exrkgz.jpg
@DennisW
Also Mike Chillit seems to be seeing much plane debris in satellite imagery. The satellite people can do spectral analysis of the photos to differentiate MH370 debris from wood etc. So Mike may be able to trace a lot of debris.
I am confused if Mike is actually finding pieces in real time, or past history, but it could potentially be large data set of debris photos to help trace source.
It is fortunate Blaine is finding pieces, and it is (apparently) a humanitarian gift.
@DennisW
If I go there or not won’t change the negative effect this miraculous Gibson find will have. I think this is a pity by any means. And we have to see how this plays out.
Also as Jeff points to; pieces of debris (if MH370) landing on a beach after almost 3 years exactly at the time you are searching for it where another piece was found also just the day before is really statistically a one in a million (if not a billion) chance.
And coming straight from the ocean without any bio-fouling is indeed at least remarkable.
Enough reason IMO to keep a quite skeptic eye on what’s going on there.
From the 1st post I ever made on this forum;
http://www.oceanafrica.com/satellite drogues/channel/channel.html
@Ge Rijn
More and more pieces from the interior puts the kibosh on a controlled ditching. Stating the obvious, I know.
@Rob, How do you know it’s from the interior? How do you know it’s from MH370, for that matter? Lots of things are made from composite honeycomb.
@Jeffwise
You’re right, of course but it’s just a hunch on my part.
Ever since the Rodrigues panel turned, I have harboured doubts. Certainly, doubts about a controlled ditching, in the normally accepted sense of the term.
The whole thing just gets stranger and stranger. At the moment the pieces only seem to have one thing in common; they are made of composite.
@buyerninety
I’m curious but your link doesn’t provide a page here..
@Jeffwise
What we know least is what happened after the engines stopped. Was there anyone alive at the controls? Were any of the passengers and crew still alive?
I had hoped there would be clues from the SIM data on what the pilot planned to do, if anything, during the final minutes.
The debris will possibly turn out to be be best guide to what happened, how the plane hit the water. The official investigators, however, don’t seem to be interested in finding out
http://www.oceanafrica.com/satellite%20drogues/channel/channel.html
Except for Dennis, perhaps the above URL needs further explanation;
the drogue gyred around in the Mozambique Channel for about 9 months,
and probably have would have continued drifting except it was almost
certainly picked up by a fishing boat (possibly off fishing grounds
in the region of S21½ E39½) & shortly afterwards the drogues satellite
transmissions then ceased.
@ROB
Like Jeff says we cann’t be sure at all if those pieces are from MH370/9M-MRO.
And if no identification numbers or obvious details are found on pieces (like the LCD mounting) there will never be a way to prove they are from 9M-MRO (even the LCD mounting is difficult in this regard).
It’s easy enough to collect some interior panels from planes somewhere, break them in pieces and throw them in the ocean somewhere expected to wash ashore and to be found.
Not that this happened or is going on but with unindentifiable/unlinkable pieces of debris there is hardly a way to prove one way or another.
Only identifiable/linkable pieces have true significance. None of this has been found yet in this effort.
The items found till now are therefore still useless IMO.
And the circumstances in which Blaine Gibson found this latest piece are not adding to their credibility as coming from MH370 to say the least. And that’s a pity.
The effort of the NoK deserves truly positive identified finds without any doubt about circumstances or integrity.
@DennisW
No point telling them not to go there. They’re already there:
FantasyLand Fantastica
…and a short little guy runs out, yelling “Th plane, Th plane…” .
Cheers
@havelockhammond
“I mean, the guy seems to have gone to quite considerable lengths (literally) to hide his final resting ground.”
nobody knows if it was his intention or not, maybe he planned to land somewhere but unfortunate sequence of events brought the plane to the ocean
you just can’t perceive this as ordinary flight, we don’t know the technical state of the plane right before crash, we don’t know who was in the cockpit and there are just so many more unknowns
what we know is that the crash happened around 7th arc, and with 99% certainty not in the area already searched