Twitter user @AirInvestigate just tweeted this picture. Thanks to reader Ventus45 for posting the link in comments. This presumable is part of the 1,000-page Royal Malaysian Police report that the Independent Group and others have been sitting on for months.
When Victor Iannello described the contents of this report to me, he implied that the only parts that were interesting were 1) the pages describing the flight simulator hard drive data points in the southern Indian Ocean, and 2) confirmation of the Penang cell-phone tower connection with Fariq’s phone. Apparently there was nothing in the rest of it that suggested any hint of what might have happened during the fateful final flight.
Here I’ve used Google Earth to drop a 32 km radius circle centered on Bandar Baru Air Itam on top of a map of MH370’s flight path taken from the “Bayesian Methods” e-book:
UPDATE 11/12/16: @Airinvestigate has posted a second part of the document on Twitter. He describes it as “parts clipped & redacted.”
Interesting to note that the Malaysian police are on the same page with many of those here in this forum in concluding that the plane was flying in excess of 500 knots and at an altitude of 35,000 to 45,000 feet–very clearly not the behavior of someone looking for an emergency landing spot.
@Keffertje
Yes, it’s just stated there, no source but with a name of a CEO that could be verified. Didn’t try yet and I suppose I won’t come far.
Maybe something for Jeff Wise to dig in to?
If true more crew members (and possibly passengers) tried to connect even shortly after IGARI.
And connecting to a cell tower on Perhentian Besar would indicate MH370 was also flying quite low approuching this island and Kota Bharu. This would affirm the statements of eyewhitnesses at the time (fishermen and others).
A detection from Penang Bridge would also indicate MH370 was approuching Penang Island more northenly and low altitude IMO.
If this information only could be confirmed the whole picture around MH370 would change even more radically.
Indeed shivering if this is all true.
Just a shame this very important information (the report pages) where never brought to the open.
What did the ATSB knew about them? And the DSTG?
Implications of this informaton are huge.
If they knew about it they must have realized it. And chose to cover it up.
I expect an explanation from the ATSB at least.
@DennisW, You are absolutely right, registration/detection and initiation are 2 completely different events. But what are the chances different cre members would have their phones on? That I guess is the question. Perhaps many would not have turned them off.Have some coffee :), wake up nice and slow, caress your glock and take a deep breath…..
@Gysbreght @Aaron ,
?It would seem if what is said on Reddit,(that Ge Rijn has bought to
our attenion), is correct, then cell connections (but not actual
calls) are possible from an aircraft at ~30000 feet, as in the FI
the altitude of MH370 is around ~32000 feet in the Kota Bharu area.
Transmit powers of mobile phones are usually regulated in Western
countries, so that they don’t cause interference to other communication
services …as occurs in Asia. Maybe the firmware in those phones
(which were probably made in China) allows a higher transmit power
on cell registration attempts, than would be the accepted norm in
Western countries.
(Mobile phone firmware is usually country specific for most countries
nowadays – and if a phone didn’t come with the specific firmware for
a particular country, it probably has the firmware for China in it,
instead.)
Let’s hope that an actual indication of the altitude circa Penang
Island is announced/leaked in the near future, to clarify this
altitude matter. The full data set isn’t being asked for – only a
bland statement that e.g. ‘aircraft did not descend below 28000
feet about Penang Island’ – some statement like that.
______________
(As to the reason why the FO’s mobile phone registered with only
the BBFARLIM2 base station and not other base stations in the
test? – that mystified the Malaysian Police, but I can theorize
why that would occur – but that’s a post for another day…)
Cheers
@keffertje
I sleep with my Glock.
Registration my not take place at all depending on the user phone protocol and user cellular plan.
Why other crew members presumably carrying cell phones that are compatible with the Malay network protocols and carriers did not register is a good question. The report does not say that the basestation dump was examined for all the SID’s associated with crew members. Maybe other registrations occurred that have either not been investigated or not reported.
@buyerninety
For another post to consider.. the report says no detection or connection at all was was made by BBFARLIM2 base station during the tests.
It was only during the flight of MH370.
This is a very important difference and issue IMO.
@Nederland:
And yes, the article “Mati lemas ketika berkelah” is presumedly on the same sheet of paper as the “nepotisme realiti dalam PR”, but perhaps telling of an event earlier that year or the year before. The headline means, spooky (really), “Drowned on a picnic”.
He uses tar btw to seal the windows, and the use of newspapers to avoid staining is perfectly reasonable.
Again, going through all this trouble, displaying so much care and concern etc. only to send out some extremely hidden weird messages is not likely. If he had been under extreme stress for many years, with a lot pains and worries, and had cancer and was about to be left by his wife and kicked out his job, and misunderstood Malaysia’s political life – well, then this could be his way of leaving something to posterity to think about. Otherwise freaky coincidence.
@DennisW
The line of discussion in the posts hasn’t been about whether it was a
cell connection or a call. It’s whether a cell connection could even be
achieved at, say, 300000 feet above the Penang Island area.
(It sounds like I can leave it to you to explain to all why the FO’s
mobile phone registered with only the BBFARLIM2 base station and not
other base stations, in the test.)
Till later, Cheers
@buyerninety
The FO’s cellphone was not used in the tests.
Explaining anything to this crowd who have absolutely no idea how a cellphone works is a hopeless exercise.
You can only do so much.
@Johan
First, I have no strong opinion about that video. I do agree, however, that the dates relating to to the headlines are a bit strange.
He posted this to FB on 12/2/2013, but the newspapers apparently were from last autumn.
The headline “nepotisme realiti dalam PR” relates to an academic critising the opposition for nepotism. Zaharie in turn criticised Malaysian academia for nepotism and government interference.
The background for “PKR Johor tolak projec Rapid” is that this industrial project apparently required forced relocation of villagers with the exception of a majority Chinese village.
The last headline is interesting. It seems to criticise Malaysian search and rescue to arrive late at the scene. It was perhaps based on this story:
https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=ms&u=http://www.sinarharian.com.my/edisi/pahang/pemuda-lemas-ketika-berkelah-di-air-terjun-1.51567&prev=search
So perhaps the video did contain some political statement similar to the ones apparent on his public facebook page (such as police fails to help citizens in distress but monitors dissident activity). But any relation to MH370 is sketchy at best?
Anwar Ibrahim said that association with Malaysia’s opposition could lead to dismissal of MAS employees. So perhaps this was a way to convey some political message, without being too plain about this openly on the internet?
@buyerninety @others
To consider again maybe..
Like I explained earlier (and DennisW mentions also a few posts back) those antennas have a quite narrow angle in the vertical plain.
They are directed to cover the most possible custumers and those are not high in the air but on the ground.
Detection and connection range therefore depends on how the antenna is directed.
They are like a beam of a lighthouse.
Everything (phone) that comes into the beam gets lighted (detected) everything outside of the beam does not.
I estimate the angle-width at max 45 degrees which leaves 22.5 degrees above the earth-surface if the antenna is mounted perfectly vertical (which it useally is not, but directed more to the ground. In surroundings with hills the antenna could have been directed more vertically like in case of BBAI base station possibly to also cover houses on those hills).
At a max detection range of 32km, 22.5 degrees leave a max. altitude of ~30.000ft on the edge of this range for possible detection in a very brief moment.
This is very unlikely/impossible what happened IMO.
Celcom recorded only one detection at 20.000ft (with the IPhone) the rest where under 8000ft during their tests. And they where detected by other base stations. Not by BBFARLIM2.
It just indicates/proves IMO MH370 was approuching and passing Penang Island at a much lower altitude far under 30.000ft and most probably even under 8000ft.
On Reddit VictorI comes to the same conclusion I read.
Did not read any good arguments/information yet that disprove this conclusion.
Willing to hear them ofcourse.
@all
Recent from Victor on Reddit (1-hr ago):
“There are some that claim the plane was at low altitude near Penang as demonstrated by the registration of the FO’s cell phone. Well, the testing proves that at altitudes at least as high as 26,000 ft, a registration is possible. The bottom line is the testing does not rule out the possibility that MH370 was at a cruise altitude and speed as it passed Penang, as the military radar data suggests. It also doesn’t prove it. The one thing that the registration of the FO’s cell phone does prove is that the unidentified radar target near Penang was MH370.”
@Pigdead made this statement yesterday
“Wow, I didn’t have much hope for the phone report. Presuming this is true there now appears to be evidence (not proof) for most of the early stories, plane climbing to 45k, diving down, phone call.
Poor Fariq probably realised something was wrong very quickly.
I believe the main cabin lighting is powered by the left bus, so plane flying like a fighter, in the dark, climbing sharply, no oxygen masks dropping, quite unlikely he would realise and act in time to put on oxygen mask.”
The reason I mention @pigdead he seems to think a lot like me, in the last couple Reddit threads.
@Ge Rijn
If MH370 covered 250nm in approximately 30 minutes (time from registration to the 18:22 last radar contact) after the registration event it is likely to have been flying at a higher altitude than 8000′.
Also it is important to understand that the Malay tests were done in two stages. In the first stage they were merely flyng around trying to make phone calls like the farmers in Ohio. They came to an incorrect conclusion as a result of those initial tests. Only later when they invoked the cooperation of the carriers were they able to collect any meaningful data relative to registration events.
To my knowledge the test aircraft used was not a 777, but I have not seen it identified. So you have that ambiguity as well. The important things are:
1> The FO’s cellphone did, in fact, register with the basestation identified.
2> The aircraft traveled the 250nm from the registration event to the 18:22 radar contact in 30 minutes.
@TBill
Yesterday VictorI stated the following on Reddit:
[–]VictorIannello 3 punten 1 dag geleden*
In my opinion, the most important aspect of the cell phone connect is the implication of the altitude of the aircraft. According to the 2015 FI and other sources, the military radar put the aircraft at cruise altitudes of greater than 30,000 ft. However, for any reasonable chance of a cell phone registration, the altitude was more likely less than 8,000 ft. (The flight path was approximately tangential to the relative position of the cell tower, which would be required for a registration at high speed.)
Hope he doesn’t mind copying his post.
And thank him this way for his contribution.
It’s like Johan said: “Thinking before you speak is like … [redacted]”.
@DennisW
The primary radar gap south-west of Penang Island (Lido-picture) could indicate MH370 climbed out from low altitude to become visible agian on primary radar at higher altitude?
The report says they did not use a same plane as MH370 so no 777.
The report states the FO’s cellphone did, in fact, register with the base station identified; BBFARLIM2.
@Ge Rijn
I assume it is a good thing that we are aware of the parallel discussion on Reddit, so everyone does not need to post both places. I also follow Mike Chillit’s pages, and anything else I can find.
@Ge Rijn
I have the primary radar gap as Northwest of Penang, but no matter.
It is tempting to assign altitude as an explanation for the gap. I do not believe that explanation is consistent with other measurables.
@DennisW
The altitude explanation of the primary radar gap West of Penang Island could be consistent with the ~8000ft altitude phone detection measurements mentioned in this report.
@Ge Rijn
Could be. It would not be consistent with flying at 500 knots. An alternative explanation is the LIDO track was synthesized using two different radars. I prefer the latter explanation.
@DennisW
It’s a “supermoon” tonight, same again tomorrow, closest it comes to the Earth this year.
510kts groundspeed at 18:25 ties in well ( perfectly, actually) with my estimated airspeed at that point.
@Nederland:
I didn’t think you had the video as your prime interest, so I am all the more thankful you spoke.
About the dates: being a year back is not necessarily peculiar, although it becomes a little more so as the headlines seemingly are chosen and have themes in common (politics and the movies). Remember that the Windows in question are at his son’s house, so either he brought a stack of old newspapers with him from home (selected and saved (?) or a random collection put aside for wrapping or floor cover use) or he found them there. His son can’t have lived too long away from home, can he? (moving implies saving/using old newspapers).
About coming out politically: he was pretty outspoken on FB, so if that is not a later trend, that rhymes a little bit oddly with being “secret” about it in the video. Losing your job for being outspoken about belonging to a party can happen anywhere (they just won’t tell you that is the reason) — that is one of the reasons why elections are secret. And he left probably no one wondering with his political work and his FB page. I must admit I have a hard time fully understanding Malay poltical life, but belonging to a legal party shouldn’t be that much of a big deal in principle. Not earth-schattering, not ground for hijackings. In practise it could be different, but mostly in the private sphere. But there might be taboos and norms that may be hard to realize they exist until it is too late.
About one detail. You wrote “Zaharie in turn criticised Malaysian academia for nepotism and government interference.” What do you mean with “government interference”? Where did you see that? One could expect Z to be on the side of academia and against the government, but if academia is a bit corrupt (which one would expect) then “interfere” perhaps takes on another meaning.
@ROB
Yes, I am looking forward to the supermoon tonight. I specifically went to the ranch to get away from the marine layer at the coast.
Yes again relative to a 510 knot ground speed at 18:25 being spot on with the BFO logged at that time (assuming an N571 296 degree track).
@Johan
The question is whether the facebook account was on a public or private setting before there was world wide interest in this account as it now is a remembrance account.
I noticed he had posted some criticism of the acadmic system, colleges being influenced by party politics and lack of academic freedom on 25/1/2013. This echoes the headline in the video posted around two weeks later. But the headline itself apparently dates to 10/10/2012. Other headlines also seem to be echoed on the FB account, such as the reference to Bond/Anwar on 7/2/2013 and the related newspaper from 19/11/2012.
So I think chances are the selection was deliberate. But that doesn’t mean much.
Low altitude passing S of Penang could be an explanation for the otherwise curious very short segment of primary radar trace in Fig 1.1 of the FI (presumably from Butterworth primary approach). It could have been terrain-masked prior to the gap btw mainland and island, then again by the island itself.
A little more on AUV/ROV and Review attendees.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/33198335/mh370-searchers-revisit-ocean-anomalies/#page1
@Nederland:
I see. I didn’t manage to dig up his FB posts now but it doesn’t sound much according to how you describe it. The “Bond & Anwar” has a weird feel to it, showing up on the one hand on FB and on the other on the video, but if it weren’t for the suspiscions it would easily fall under normal idiosyncrasy.
He joined Anwar’s party in spring 2013 (I believe I read) so his political activities were (perhaps) more recent than the video, if that was from February.
Hard to see this guy as the perpetrator. It would be a good thing for public sanity if it turned out to be something else.
@Johan
“It would be a good thing for public sanity if it turned out to be something else.”
If I might be so bold as to ask, Johan. What would be a better scenario for public sanity in your view, and why?
@DrBobbyUlich, Richard Cole. From the Dec 15 Definition of Search Area, p19, “Using the results from the validation experiments, a 90% region of probability will be used to define the search areas. This area is approximated by the green line in Figure 9.”
DrBobbyUlich, you posted, “As Dr. Gordon said, the CSA includes only about 70% of the integrated probability map. A lot of the remaining 30% is to the NE.”
I had assumed that the green line was the CSA but maybe not. Also my interpretation of the Dr Gordon statement was more along the lines of the probability of finding the wreckage in the current search area; most likely also a misapprehension.
Accordingly, as I am understanding the current ATSB position, unless there is an as yet undisclosed outcome from the Review:
• Completion of the 120,000 sq km search (the AUV/ROV spot searching validating the last 10,000 sq km of that) will represent a thorough search of that area.
• The probability of it lying outside that area therefore will be high but currently there is no high-enough-confidence search area identified which warrants extending the search.
• That includes the low priority tail outside the search area, to the north east.
• Identification of a new search area of sufficient prospects needs to await further researches into drift modelling.
Can either of you confirm the first dot point above and that that represents just 70% of the area where the wreckage could lie under the DSTG Bayesian prediction, ie assuming no long glides to the SE/NW?
As to the bottom line, should it be the ATSB has the view that pursuing new flight paths now on offer, which may include some of the unsearched 30%, should await lifting the weighting of drift anlyses, would you agree?
To me it is premature to declare the DSTG predictions as having failed if almost 30% of the area is still to be searched. (eg Central America was found in a very low Bayesian probability area). It is the right strategy to continue with finding a hot spot WITHIN THAT AREA but outside the current search area unless the DSTG flight plan underpinnings can be bettered.
Also, search no further unless and until such a hot spot is identified, as intended.
@David
Your post reminded me of presentations I attended after which the presenter would ask “any questions on what I just said?”, and I would ask “Yes, what did you just say?
@DennisW. Well, we’ll see.
@Ge Rijn, @DennisW, My phone has registered at FL370 on a B747 going approx 1000kph over Iceland with very clear weather, window seat. Someone on Reddit was saying he had the same flying over different countries. Though the probability of a registration is perhaps higher at lower altitutes, it is not improbable that Fariq’s phone registered at a much higher altitude. It could be coincidental, unless we see more of the report about aspects we do not yet know.
@Johan, “belonging to a legal party shoulnd’t be that much of a big deal”….The moment Anwar Ibrahim switched sides and joined the opposition the sodomy charges were trumped up by the government and his court cases have been following him ever since. Including fabricated DNA evidence that was thrown out of court on March 8th, 2011. The political machinations in a country such as MY is VERY different from ours, in the west. It is therefore not a stretch to assume that anyone working for the government, or a government owned entity would get his/her behind fired for being active in an opposition party.
@DrBobbyUlich, Richard Cole. My, “…if almost 30% of the area is still to be searched” should read, “if almost a third of the probability has not been addressed”.
@Keffertje.FL370. Good one
@Keffertje
The flight tests in the report state there where no connections/detections made above 20.000ft on Penang Island.
All under 8000ft except one on 20.000ft.
IMO this is what is relevant.
Not unproven/unspecified FL370 exceptions above other countries.
Flight simulator data, analysis report and conclusion.
https://twitter.com/AirInvestigate/status/797983693172142080
@Keffertje:
I know that perfectly well. You quoted me a bit short too.
I have written about that before. The thing that gets to you is that although Anwar’s party is legal and supposedly receiving state support as a political party (and more when in parliament), different bodies in MY don’t hesitate to use, mildly speaking, very rough methods in trying to shoot him down. You can probably see similar methods in other countries (against right and left wing parties) but perhaps not that consistently against a party that appears to be liberal to social democratic. It is not pretty. And Z might have gotten a shock if the thought development was on his side.
@Ge Rijn, Personally I wouldn’t put too much value in these tests. I am not sure it tells us anything at all.
@Johan, I think the videos can be put to rest. There is nothing to be gleaned there imo other than perhaps weirdness. Unless someone finds some secret message in those meticulously taped newspaper articles, it is not relevent. I think we both agree on that 1 :).
@Keffertje:
Correction: That should have been “against extreme or far left and right wing parties”. I guess I don’t have to spell out the logic behind that.
@all
Something from the sim-reports on @AirInvestigation I did not read before. They don’t make anything out of it but at least it’s weird in the context IMO:
“Further checks on the deleted file has led to the discovery of a folder
“777twintower”. This folder has been deleted on December 18, 2013 @ 2249hrs.
Inside this folder has found some pictures of computer simulation and installation
the images show a MAS aircraft that fly
heading towards Kuala Lumpur Tower and
KLCC.
These images have been taken
from the computer screen to play a simulated airplan.”
And forgot the reference again..:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/5yyxi7hdqya2ywe/AAAKA-oF92oju_JWqHpWe3FTa?dl=0
It’s in the second report.
@all
Question ofcourse is; why on Earth would Zaharie simulate a flight towards the KL twin-towers?
Create a ‘777twintower’ folder and delete it 2 1/2 months before disappearing with MH370?
@Keffertje:
Agreed: the three–four ones I have seen qualifiy him as father-in-law, not a terrorist. Still, they don’t get him off the hook for an extended suicide or a moment of raving madness, topping off an, if so, long period of extreme psychic pressure. I wouldn’t think that likely judging purely from the videos, but there is too much around and about this guy to not hold him as prime suspect or at least at the centre of things. It makes him vulnerable too, as we have seen with the political dimension, both professionally and privately. (And if someone were to pick out a patsy or fall guy (in advance) for something shady, suspect or very odd, then Z could be the perfect choice.)
@DennisW:
I am daydreaming a bit. Let’s say I would prefer it to be an accident, or a series of events where accident was one, knowing that is not likely. I don’t believe Z hijacked the plane (to do anything but die), but if this guy turns out to be that weird, then we can expect more planes falling down, and the pilots’ union and the airlines will be camping in boardrooms for years.
@Ge Rijn:
Whoops. You got something there it sounds.
@Jeff:
Did your server break down? 🙂
@Ge Rijn:
So that is what has been held from us? From the point of view of profession and interests, any pilot who perishes will do that with his occasional interests and pastimes still there for display on his computer. Some will delete things at times precisely for that reason. So it is not much to wonder about, in that sense. Z was a character who could be expected to play around with the sim for fun, as others do with (other) games — that is what they are about (psychologically it is to some extent about n o t crashing, stealing, bombing in real life, but getting a feel of it, getting to know it, to be able to relate to it mentally without real-life consequenses, and to act out repressed energy).
Still, this won’t help him in the eyes of the world. Those who want to will have a perpetrator. And it does add some to his psychological profile, doesn’t it? And we will be reading poor aricles in the press for months.
@Ge Rijn:
A note of caution. Does the simulation actually crash into Petronas Towers? I mean, he was flying “towards Kuala Lumpur” every other day, and could have had the intention to try and make a screenshoot to see if it looked good enough for a Christmas card.
You only see twins when they are out walking together.
@Johan
You don’t create a folder named ‘777twintowers’ if it was only to save a Christmas card.
The report clearly states the images show a MAS plane heading towards the KL twintowers AND KLCC.
Further; these images have been taken from the computerscreen to play a simulated airplan. It also says the simulations were in this folder.
I cann’t imagine a pilot simulating a flight towards the KL twintower just for fun and then save it in a special created folder named ‘777twintower’.
I created a folder named “MH370”.
@Ge Rijn:
No, it does sound a bit too much. I would keep an open mind though, “towards” is not very conclusive.
I hope they will be able to verify that this folder was there from the start and wasn’t put there yesterday. It is just as strange to sit on that for 2 1/2 years.
@Gysbreght:
Don’t go missing with someone’s moped!