Earlier today, the Australian Transport Safety Board released a document entitled “MH370 — Search and debris examination update.” Perhaps occasioned by the recent completion of the towfish scan of the Indian Ocean seabed search area, the document updates earlier ATSB reports and offers some intriguing insights into what may have happened to the plane. Some thoughts:
— The first section of the report expands upon an assertion that the ATSB made in an earlier report: that the BFO values recorded at 0:19 indicate that the plane was in an increasingly steep dive. Indeed, the newly published calculations indicate that the plane was in an even steeper dive than previously reckoned: between 3,800 and 14,600 feet per minute at 00:19:29, and between 14,200 and 25,000 feet per minute at 00:19:37. On the lower end, this represents an acceleration along the vertical axis from 37.5 knots to 144 knots in eight seconds, or 0.7g. On the higher end, this represents an acceleration along the vertical axis from 140 knots to 247 knots, likewise about 0.7g. If the plane were freefalling in a vacuum, its acceleration would be 1.0g; given that the airframe would be experiencing considerable aerodynamic drag, a downward acceleration of 0.7 would have to represent a near-vertical plunge, which a plane would experience near the end of a highly developed spiral dive.
— The second section describes end-of-flight simulations carried out in a Boeing flight simulator in April of this year. These tests were more detailed than others carried out previously. Evidently, modeled aircraft were allowed to run out of fuel under various configurations of speed, altitude, and so forth, and their subsequent behavior observed. Thus, the exercise modeled what might have happened in a “ghost ship” scenario. Notably, it was found to be possible for the plane to spontaneously enter the kind of extremely steep dive described in the previous section. This being the case, the report states, the plane “generally impacted the water within 15 NM of the arc.” This is not surprising, considering that the plane had already lost altitude and was plummeting straight downward. This offers a tight constraint on where the plane could plausibly be if the 0:19 BFO analysis is correct.
— The third section describes the results of debris drift modeling that has been informed by tests involving replica flaperons “constructed with dimensions and buoyancy approximately equal to that of the recovered flaperon.” An important point not addressed by the report is the fact that the French investigators who tested the buoyancy of the flaperon were unable to reconcile its observed behavior with the observed distribution of the Lepas anatifera barnacles found growing on it. So when the French ran their own drift models, they had to run them twice, one for each buoyancy condition. Apparently the Australians overcame this paradox by discarding one of the states.
— The third section notes that, according to modeling carried out by the CSIRO, debris which entered the ocean in the southern half of the current search area would not likely reach Réunion by the time the flaperon was recovered. Meanwhile, debris that entered the water significantly north of the current search area would reach the shores of Africa much earlier than the time frame in which pieces were actually discovered there. Using this logic, the report concludes that the northern part of the current search area is probably correct. However, this seems dubious reasoning to me: one would expect a gap between the time debris arrives in Africa, and the moment when it is discovered. Also, debris can move quickly across the ocean, only to be trapped in a local gyre and move around randomly before beaching. Therefore I think the argument that the pieces couldn’t have originated further north is flawed.
— The fourth section, describing the damage analysis of the flap and flaperon, is the most interesting and newsworthy of all. In short, it makes a persuasive case that the flaperon and the inboard section of the right-hand outboard flap (which, rather remarkably, turn out to have been directly adjacent) were in the neutral, non-deployed state at the moment of impact. Assuming this is correct, this eliminates the IG’s flutter theory, as well as the widely discussed theory that the flap was deployed and therefore indicative of a pilot attempting to gently ditch the plane. Proponents of these theories will continue to argue on their behalf but in my opinion they were dubious to begin with (given the shredded condition of much of the recovered debris) and are now dead men walking.
— No mention was made of Patrick De Deckker’s exciting work with Lepas shells.
— Overall, the thrust of this report is that the plane went down very close to the seventh arc in a manner consistent with a “ghost ship” flight to fuel exhaustion, exactly as the ATSB has assumed all along. There is, however, one very large elephant in the room: the fact that Australia has spent two years and $180 million demonstrating that the plane’s wreckage does not lie where it would if this scenario were correct. Therefore it is not correct. The ATSB’s response to this conundrum is rather schizophrenic. On the one hand, it has recently floated the idea of raising another $30 million to search further—presumably the small remaining area where a plane just might conceivably have come to rest in a ghost-ship scenario, as I described in an earlier post. On the other, it has today convened a “First Principles Review” consisting of experts and advisors from Australia and around to world to scrap their previous assumptions and start with a clean sheet of paper. This implies an understanding that they have proven themselves wrong. I wonder how many assumptions they will scrap. Perhaps, as Neil Gordon mused in his interview with me, that the plane wasn’t really traveling south at 18:40? Or perhaps they’ll dare to go even deeper, and contemplate the provenance of the BFO data… ?
— A postscript: Richard Cole recently posted an update of the seabed search (below). I’m intrigued by the fact that the Fugro Equator has deployed its AUV near the northern end of the search zone. When I interviewed him for my last blog post, Fugro’s Rob Luijnenburg told me that the northern end of the search zone was flat enough that it could be scanned by the towfish alone; there was no need for an AUV scan to infill the craggy bits. So why is the AUV looking there now? Especially given that it’s very close to an area just reinspected by Dong Hai Jiu 101’s ROV. Another MH370 mystery.
UPDATE 11-2-16: I emailed Rob Luijnenburg and he immediately responded: “The AUV is scanning in a section in the north part of the priority search area in the very rugged terrain south of Broken Ridge (the east -west mountain range at approximately the 33rd parallel)… Generally the AUV is deployed in spots of extremely rugged seabed to complete the 120,000 sq km priority area survey.” Worth noting is that if the search gets expanded northeastward, it’s going to be into very rough terrain indeed.
http://www.lysator.liu.se/~mosh/arne/arne01.gif ?
@Johan, I am strongly in agreement. The simple fact is that there is no evidence whatsoever that Zaharie either planned to commit suicide or was in any way of the mindset that would predispose him to commit suicide. Yet there is no other easy explanation for the disappearance of MH370, so people find a way to see clues where there are none.
About the window-sealing video: taken at face value, this cheerful, helpful DIY how-to video is compelling evidence that Zaharie was no mass murderer. How else to see it? That he was subtly signaling a murderous intent? People just don’t behave this way (except maybe in works of literature). If they want to send a signal, they send a signal. Can anyone provide an example of someone sending a signal of the kind they believe Zaharie was sending?
About the sunrise idea: Zaharie was a secularist, a rationalist, an internationalist. He was interested in and delighted by the writings of Richard Dawkins. There are many hundreds of millions of people like this, all over the world, from every ethnic and religious background. A well-educated, rational, technologically savvy Muslim is no more likely to blindly follow some ancient lore about suicide in water than Mark Zuckerburg is going to slaughter a red calf or that I (an atheist whose parents are nominally Christian) am going to instinctively rub ash on my forehead four days before Easter.
BTW not long ago someone referred to Zaharie (or was it Dawkins?) as a “fundamentalist atheist.” This is of course a contradiction in terms. Fundamentalism is about subscribing uncritically and unreservedly to a set of religious doctrines, that is to say doctrines for which there is no material evidence and so which must be accepted on faith alone. Atheists (at least as I see it) can recognize the value offered by traditional, coherent worldviews while at the same time believing (yes, believing) that it is worthwhile to live a life informed only by rational discourse with the world. This is not a nihilistic viewpoint — quite the contrary, in my opinion. It certainly would not predispose one to committing mass murder.
@All, I was interested in twilight because it is also the time when traces of light (or explosions)near the sunset or sunrise point of the horizon are very difficult if not impossible to discern. Anyone intent on crashing the plane at that time may not be visibly seen. How did that evolve into vampire nonsense?
@Keffertje: The spy satellites should catch any event such as an explosion, particularly as many of them have infra-red sensors meant to catch missile launches and the like. But the CIA or NSA or whoever runs the satellites may not wish to publicize what they recorded.
@Gysbreght:
That’s him.
@ABN397: ever seen an explosion of seawater?
@Jeff:
On atheists: I think just about anyone can turn anything into something that could be called fundamentalism, but otherwise I agree. Most in-group names will be used as accusations, but atheism taken as an historic label for a programmatically non-theist or non-theological approach to life and society cannot be disregarded as such (as I understand it). It is simply the idea that there is no personalized creator but something called nature or cosmos instead. The edges might be negotiable to some, and you will find some social materialists laying some claimes, but thus viewed there is nothing fishy. If I am not mixing things up in haste, it serves as a ground for science (although you rarely hear science invoking it these days — they non-theologian or non-confessional don’t they?).
Then again there will be lesser or greater need for such a term, and one might, as always, be blinded by a programmatic approach (that excludes other things), but a non-theist is not a Libertine or an amoral person (per se). Someone will use it ad an excuse, but others will of course use it as a reason to be proactive and take fullest possible (and practically possible) responsibility over human life. Life still needs to be cultured.
@all,
Ben Sanderlands hypothesis on the loiter around Mekar…Raisers some interesting points…
://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2016/11/11/61373/
Sorry correction..
Michael Gilbert wrote this hypothesis..
@Jeff Wise
Thank you very much for sharing a profound analysis of the Z-Scenario.
I feel personally, that it would be safe now, to finally bury a suicide scenario. It was one of the most unlikely freak scenarios anyway.
If we dispose of it we have only two or three scenarios left worth a discussion:
Number one would be a hijack with outside assistance , whereby the hijackers manged to leave the aircraft during the *loitering* time, and sent the plane with all crew and pax dead to the SIO. The weakness of such a theory would be, that the plane was not found on the 7th arc.
Number two would be a hijack with sophisticated spoof to cover a deviation to a northern destination. The weakness of this theory would be the presence of multiple debris that seems to come from the SIO somewhere.
Number three would be the “hijack gone wrong” theory, with a crew fighting loitering hijackers, who somehow cross the seven arcs far more north thru flight maneuvres and perish south or west of sumatra
@Aaron, I think it’s entirely possible that the plane loitered after 18:25, but it’s pushing the data too far to think that it describes the scenario presented. Also, I would dismiss the premise that the crew was responding to an accident.
“If we dispose of it we have only two or three scenarios left worth a discussion”
@Comsic an electrical fire either in the flight deck or avionics bay followed by a rapid decompression which would extinguish the fire is still plausible hypothesis in my opinion..
If MH370 DID ascend to some where near 40,000ft just after Igari..Maybe that was deliberate action of intent from Zaharie to extinguish the fire quickly followed by a rapid descent due to cabin decompression..
Though the suggested higher altitude has been dismissed without proper due diligence in my opinion…
” Also, I would dismiss the premise that the crew was responding to an accident.”
@Jeff
So if the reason for the loiter is not some catastrophic electrical fire..
What scenario best fits or your hypothesis for the loiter?
@Aaron, The absence of wreckage in the 200K sq km search area is inconsistent with a ghost flight, and so implies active piloting, which implies intentionality. Does this make sense? No. But it is at least consistent with the evidence.
The weakness of this case leads me to believe that Cosmic Academy’s #2 scenario is looking increasingly plausible. As pointed out, it requires an explanation of the debris, which I hope will be forthcoming soon.
@Jeff
Let’s assume it was some form of sophisticated hijacked.Which I myself have leaned towards at times but have been left puzzled with the why which is debris found to date.. Which does not fit the motive..
Unless the one possible theory to hijack a plane a crash it into the SIO is to bury or hide something the perpetrator/s do not ever want to be found or recovered…
How far would they go to cover it up..What if Any level of government/s would be involved..
If this is even a very slight possibility .Sadly we will never know the truth behind MH370 as the main wreckage may never be found..
@TBill
@Keffertje
Re the calculations for sunrise at altitude, this is what I used.
http://keisan.casio.com/exec/system/1224686065
One at a time, labour intensive, but that is what I used to build the tables in the Auntyprue posts.
@Aaron
Your electrical fire or otherwise catastrophical failure scenario was discussed in depth right after the deviation March 2014 and it was one of the scenarios that were dismissed right away from the start by nearly every expert posting on Duncansteel, reddit pprune or this blog. I feel this scenario is still only on the shelve because there is no other convincing scenario.
For a creative process , i think, it would be better to dispose of all fringe scenarios for the time being unless there comes up some real new stuff. Just to free the mind for finding the one thing, we must have overlooked.
Ahurrm.
@ventus
Thank for the altitude calcs…I need to digest it. I knew I needed a check on that.
It also impacts moonset time, but I think MH370, taking off right at Moonset in KLIA, was able to give the Moon time to go down. I was trying to understand if the oil rig guy saw Moon glow off the plane at altitude, but I do not think so.
@Jeff
“Can anyone provide an example of someone sending a signal of the kind they believe Zaharie was sending?”
The practice of hidden messaging/signaling goes back over 500 years. The practice is known as steganography. History is full of examples.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steganography
@all
I am not endorsing Ed Baker’s theory except as a collector of theories that seem to explain human intervention cause. Alternately, DennisW’s negotiation theory sounds good especially since there is some apparent corroboration from rumors. We just need somebody to throw us a bone of info.
It is nonetheless interesting that the Ed Baker theory gets the violent crash vs. soft landing correct as ATSB now thinks. Ed’s twilight theory is a little weak because we would want to see the Earth graphic at crash time, not one hour before crash time.
It was good that @matt finally gave us an example of the hidden messages he sees in the videos.
@Ventus 45 you might find this link useful as well (sun elevations at sea level for given lat/long/time/date
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/AltAz.php
@Cosmic Academy
All three of your theories suffer from the same flaw – lack of a plausible motive.
@All
You either believe Z purposely placed those newspaper clippings there for public consumption, or you do not.
It is beyond clear to me that they were arranged in a calculated and purposeful manner. They were anything but haphazardly and randomly taped there to provide barrier protection. This idea is laughable when one looks at the arrangement and Z’s training of the camera back and forth.
But laugh away…
Given that he IS the most likely culprit, this alone warrants any investigator worth his salt top give intense scrutiny to these 5 remarkably odd videos.
@Tbill
I believe Z’s videos give a complete narrative of what he planned on doing (and IMO did do!).
It was my hope that others here would take a SERIOUS look at these videos, WITH the pretext that the guy most likely just flew a 777 with 238 other souls on board to the middle of nowhere.
In one video the only word we EVER see is “KILLS”.
In one video he has a fish swimming in water.
Even James Bond makes an appearance.
Anyways, I have done an exhaustive study of all the videos and I have ZERO doubt that contained within them is Z’s plan.
I am willing to post my rendition and interpretation, but was hoping some others here would give the videos a long, hard look.
Tired of people screaming confirmation bias.
I’m beyond convinced of Z’s culpability (all these other theories are plain silliness), and interrpret these videos accordingly.
Hint: The “Icemaker complete” video kicks things off.
But I’m sure he was also very concerned about his fellow countrymen having optimally functioning ice makers. LMAO!!
@Will
“Mick Gilbert has a paper out on the first log-on and ‘loiter’ gap”
Mick Gilbert’s calculations and explanation is consistent with what was outlined recently in my postings where I suggested MH370 subsequently carried on round below Sumatra.
@matt, Are you saying that Zaharie created videos by which he would claim credit for the deed, via subtle cryptic clues? Human beings simply don’t behave that way. If you want to claim credit, you claim credit. If you don’t, you don’t.
I challenge you to name a single other instance of someone doing such a thing.
Regarding Mick Gilbert’s latest “paper”, he wants to analyze the flight path between the time of the logon at 18:25:27 and the first satellite phone call at 18:39:55. In order to do so, he uses Richard Godfrey’s “Model V15.1” to get the position of MH370 at the time of the phone call. However, he completely ignores the fact that that position depends on very specific assumptions made by Godfrey, and in particular number 5:
“There was a continuation of the apparent lateral offset of 10 nautical miles (NM) to the north of flight route N571 to a point approaching waypoint IGOGU on a track azimuth of 297 degT (degrees True; equivalent to 298 degrees magnetic), which is in accord with the BFO data values at 18:28; see Figure 1 below for this lateral offset.”
Without that assumption, the position is largely unconstrained. Gilbert, however, treats the value in Godfrey’s model as if it were a solid piece of data and then goes off into left field trying to find out how the plane traveled there. Interesting try, but largely nonsense.
@matt:
I have started looking at the videos. It will take a little while. I’ll give you that the newspapers jhave an odd feeling to them. The Icemaker complet is, beside giving the general coordinates to the south pole (ice!), a typical example of a father who sits alone in his villa and has figured out a way to send a message to his colleagues and friends and relatives (look I have a villa, a videocam, an icemachine, and I understand electric things and have a good knowledge about mechanics too.) about how to fix a home appliance everyone/many have at home and that is a bit prone to break or jam due to moving parts and water and freezing temperatures and an electric motor. He is also, implicitly, speaking to his children who are not there but someday will need his help with home appliances. Maybe, maybe, is he feeling a bit awkward about having a job that pays well but isn’t that demanding physically or intellectually, but which allows him to walk around in uniform and have household helps and a lot of time off. He is thus learning his children to take pride in taking care of their homes and what’s in them and knowing how things work, although he perhaps could afford to have someone doing it for money. It is to some degree his humble background that is speaking in several ways.
What did you see?
@Johan@Jeff
You either believe the newspaper clippings and their content were deliberately chosen and placed, as I do, or you do not.
For me, there is no question about this. Which of course then changes EVERYTHING in regard to the videos.
I don’t know what’s so difficult here…
@Paul Smithson
Yes Paul, thanks for putting that link back up. I have used that US(N) site before as well.
(http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/AltAz.php)
I forgot to mention it before.
It appears to be more accurate at “zero” elevation than the Kelsan calculator,
(http://keisan.casio.com/exec/system/1224686065)
but it has the advantage of being able to vary the elevation above sea level, which the US(N) one does not.
And on a further search, I just found this site, that others may be interested in having a look at, which gives you downloadable spreadsheets with an incredible amount of useful detail in them.
(http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/solcalc/calcdetails.html)
@JeffWise.
Why is my browser (Chrome) suddenly giving me a “security warning” on your site ?
Any ideas.
@JeffWise
Dug a little deeper.
Chrome says:-
Security Overview
This page is insecure (broken HTTPS).
Certificate Error
There are issues with the site’s certificate chain (net::ERR_CERT_COMMON_NAME_INVALID).
View certificate
Secure Connection
The connection to this site is encrypted and authenticated using a strong protocol (TLS 1.2), a strong key exchange (ECDHE_RSA), and a strong cipher (AES_256_GCM).
@ventus45, it sounds like something’s gone haywire with my service provider (Network Solutions). I’ll try to get it sorted out.
Thanks for the heads up…
Your electrical fire or otherwise catastrophical failure scenario was discussed in depth right after the deviation March 2014 and it was one of the scenarios that were dismissed right away from the start by nearly every expert “posting on Duncansteel, reddit pprune or this blog. I feel this scenario is still only on the shelve because there is no other convincing scenario.
For a creative process , i think, it would be better to dispose of all fringe scenarios for the time being unless there comes up some real new stuff. Just to free the mind for finding the one thing, we must have overlooked.
Johan”
Total BS..There are some experts that still suggest an electrical fire is a plausible theory.Just Duncan steel site dismisses it that theory DOES not make a fact!
Though would rather suggest that there is some wild conspiracy theory behind the disappearance..
Further more how dare you tell someone for creative purposes imply what to write..
And I don’t care if electrical fire has been dismissed by so called experts..As far as I’m concerned till the main wreckage is found you cannot rule out any theory till proven other wise..
@matt – I looked again and again at those videos. There is nothing there even when I tried to looking for elements of planning. It’s like looking hard in clouds and seeing what one wants to see.
@matt, Again, I ask you: can you cite a single instance of anyone ever doing such a thing before?
You ask, “I don’t know what’s so difficult here,” but there is a big difference between your intuitive sense that you’ve found a meaningful answer and an effective argument to the unpursuaded.
Personally, I find the idea that someone would send a message in such a way psychologically implausible. The closest I can come is to rememember American pilots captured during the Vietnam War, who when paraded before the TV cameras by their captors deliberatedly acted robotically in an attempt to signal to the folks back home that their confessions were coerced. But I don’t think that situation parallel’s Zaharie’s very closely at all. He had the freedom to shut up or to speak as he saw fit.
Again, if you feel that “there is no question,” please cite me a case of someone behaving in a similar manner.
@JeffWise.
HEADS UP ALL.
Look at this, found it on twitter.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxBkXXmWQAANPza.jpg
Wow! Where did you find it?
@Aaron, There are certainly people suggesting that an electrical fire might have caused the diversion (including some who post on duncansteel.com), but I do not think that they deserve the designation “expert.” As an idea it lies somewhere on the spectrum between “implausible” and “impossible,” a good deal closer to the latter, I would say.
In order to move forward, we have to lay certain suppositions to bed once they have sufficiently been examined. Therefore I discourage further discussion of accident scenarios.
@JeffWise
Source is a post at:
https://twitter.com/AirInvestigate
@All
Re Video on window seal repair. Found on a German site . Haven’t got enough time at the moment but have this:
…. from minute 5:13 minutes (313 seconds) the following headlines are available (from left to right chronologically sorted):
1.) HSBC aims to sell Ping An stake
Meaning: HSBC sells its shares in the Chinese life insurer PING AN to the amount of 9.39 billion dollars to a Thai billionaire.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887323401904578159923166960676
2.) The End is near for “Twilight”
Meaning: An article about the end of the Vampire Cinema series Twilight
Note: Twilight means twilight, half-darkness or twilight
3.) Bond drops by Afghanistan
Meaning: James Bond actor Daniel Craig visited a British military base in Afghanistan at the end of 2012 and the new James Bond film SKYFALL was presented to the soldiers.
Note: SKYFALL in the film is the name of the Scottish estate of the parents of James Bond. It can also be freely translated: STORM FROM THE SKY or AUTUMN SKY.
In March it is autumn in Australia. MH370 rushed down from the autumn sky to the Indian Ocean off Australia.
http://news.sky.com/story/1013168/james-bond-star-daniel-craig-in-afghanistan
4.) Shadow banking threat rising
Significance: increased risk of shadow banks.
Note: Banking also has a different meaning. If you want to fly a curve then you fly a BANKING TURN in which the aircraft tends to its transverse axis and thus the direction of flight changes.
Thus one can interpret the headline: A shadow (MH370) changes its direction of flight and becomes an increasing danger.
5.) Gempar Drama
Meaning: drama during an uproar / insurrection against the ruling state power.
Note: Presumably a malaysian article in which there was police violence during an insurrection in which the injured persons were complaining. ZAShah had a great interest in such news.
6.) Nepotisme realiti dalam PR
Meaning: Vetternwirtschaft operates PR event.
Note: Presumably again a Malaysian article about the extended cousin economy in Malaysia.
7.) Mati lemas ketika berkelah
Meaning: Someone drowned in a lake during a picnic
Analysis / Conclusion:
Chinese life insurer, vampires (flight into the twilight), James Bond in the military (fall from the autumn sky), shadow banks (shadow flight), drama during a popular uprising, cronyism and finally someone drowns in a lake.
It is already interesting that everything ZAShah told us between the beginning and the middle of 2013 always had to do with death in some way.
It is conceivable that the Youtube-Video Window Seal contains hidden messages which should point out exactly what will still come – death and destruction because of all the injustice and maladministration in Malaysia.
Maybe needs more cleaning up.
Cheers Tom L
@Tom, Again, this never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever happens in real life. Ever!
Closing comments here now, please add your thoughts to the most recent post. Thank you!
@Jeff
I would totally agree %150. Its amazing what some people come up with. Not the real world . By the way I have never even seen a Vampire movie etc!!
Cheers Tom L