Last week we discussed what we know about the first hour of MH370’s disappearance, based on primary radar data and the first Inmarsat BTO value. Today I’d like to talk about the BFO data and what it can tell us about MH370’s fate.
As longtime readers of this blog well know, the Burst Frequency Offset (BFO) is a type of metadata that measures how different the frequency of an Inmarsat signal is from its expected value. It is an important value to a communications satellite operator like Inmarsat because if the value gets too large, the system will be operating outside its approved frequency limit. One cause of such a change would be if a satellite begins wandering in its orbit, which indeed was the case with MH370. The fact that the Satellite Data Unit (SDU) aboard MH370 did not properly compensate for drift in the Inmarsat satellite overhead is the reason the BFO data contains a signal indicating what the plane was doing.
While each of the BTO values recording during the seven “pings” tells us fairly precisely how far the plane was from the satellite at that time, the BFO data points taken individually do not tell us much about the plane was doing. Taken together, however, they indicate three things:
- After the SDU logged back on with Inmarsat at 18:25, the plane took a generally southern course. If we didn’t have the BFO data, we wouldn’t know, from the BTO data alone, whether the plane followed a path to the north or to the south (see above.)
- The plane had turned south by 18:40. The BFO value at the time of the first incoming sat phone call at 18:40 indicates that the plane was traveling south.
- At 0:19:37 the plane was in a rapid and accelerating decent.
However, as I’ve previously described, if all of these things were true, then the plane would have been found by now. So at least one of them must be false. In the course of my interview with him, Neil Gordon said that the ATSB is firmly convinced that #3 is true, and that as a result he suspects that #2 is not. Specifically, he points out that if the plane were in a descent at 18:40, it could produce the BFO values observed. Thus it is possible that the plane did not perform a “final major turn” prior to 18:40 but instead loitered in the vicinity of the Andaman Islands or western Sumatra before turning and flying into the southern ocean. If this were the case, it would result in the plane turning up to the northeast of the current search area. An example of such a route has been described by Victor Iannello at the Duncan Steel website.
It is worth nothing that such a scenario was explicitly rejected as unlikely by the Australian government when they decided to spend approximately $150 million to search 120,000 square kilometers of seabed. The reason is that it was deemed unlikely that the plane would just happen, by chance to be descending at the right time and at the right rate to look like a southward flight. For my part, I also find it hard to imagine why whoever took the plane would fly it at high speed through Malaysian airspace, then linger for perhaps as much as an hour without contacting anybody at the airline, at ATC, or in the Malysian government (because, indeed, none of these were contacted) and then continuing on once more at high speed in a flight to oblivion.
Well, is there any other alternative? Yes, and it is one that, though historically unpopular, is becoming imore urgent as the plane’s absence from the search area becomes increasingly clear: the BFO data is unreliable. That is to say, someone deliberately altered it.
There are various ways that we can imagine this happening, but the only one that stands up to scrutiny is that someone on board the plane altered a variable in the Satellite Data Unit or tampered with the navigation information fed back to the SDU from the E/E bay. Indeed, we know that the SDU was tampered with: it was turned off, then logged back on with Inmarsat, something that does not happen in the course of normal aircraft operation. It has been speculated that this depowering and repowering occurred as the result of action to disable and re-enable some other piece of equipment, but no one has every come up with a very compelling story as to what that piece of equipment might be. Given the evident problems with the BFO data in our possession, I feel we must consider the possibility that the intended object of the action was the SDU itself.
When I say BFO tampering has been “historically unpopular,” what I mean is that almost everyone who considers themselves a serious MH370 researcher has from the beginning assumed that the BFO data was generated by a normally functioning, untampered-with SDU, and this has limited the scenarios that have been considered acceptable. For a long time I imagined that search officials might know of a reason why tampering could not have occurred, but I no longer believe this is the case. When I questioned Inmarsat whether it was possible that the BFO data could have been spoofed, one of their team said “all Inmarsat can do is work with the data and information and the various testings that we’ve been doing.” And when I raised the issue with Neil Gordon, he said, “All I’ve done is process the data as given to me to produce this distribution.” So it seems that the possibility of BFO spoofing has not been seriously contemplated by search officials.
If we allow ourselves to grapple with the possibility that the BFO data was deliberately tampered with, we quickly find ourselves confronting a radically different set of assumptions about the fate of the plane and the motives of those who took it. These assumptions eliminate some of the problems that we have previously faced in trying to make sense of the MH370 mystery, but introduce new ones, as I’ll explore in upcoming posts.
@Keffertje:
Heard you on flight path etc. We’ll se what the investigation will say.
Even in the more populated south of Sweden the density is rediculously 50 / square km to Nerherlands 410.
@DennisW
“Hint: Shah did it.”
@Brock McEwen
“I’ve been warned more than once not to dig too deep: the truth, the story usually goes, would cause calamity.”
What are the facts that the Malaysians are not telling us about, that, quote: “What happened was so terrifying the world must never know about”?
The first thing they said at the press conference was that the plane disintegrated. Why would they do that if they tracked it flying back?
@Johan
Never been there.
As for Sweden and other EU countries it is about collapsing the sovereignties. These wicked demons on top of the social hierarchy have no common sense and consciousness. For them the end justify the means. As long as they have their like-minded’s sheeples’ support it will be another world war.
@Johan, Yes it is the same here. Government spends our money like there is no tomorrow:). Social security is that good its tempting to go on welfare, haha. But yes, I will definitely put Sweden on a must visit!
Richard,
Re: “That is the current position of the ATSB/DSTG search definition which does not use the detailed BFO values, so in that at least you agree with them.”
And that is why poor Fugro cannot find the plane in the current search area. Very awkward position…
Nederland said about Helios 522;
“but there were early government reports (quoted by several news outlets)
indicating that most human remains were found frozen.”
Indeed. Even USA NBC reported that.
Let’s hear what Greek coroner Philippos Kotsaftis actually said;
http://www.hri.org/news/greek/ana/2005/05-08-17.ana.html
@DennisW
Thanks for the link. I did a bit more digging!
The notion of an atypical flightpath started with a single tweet on 17th July 2014: https://twitter.com/VagelisKarmiros/status/489926167731142656
You will note that the tweet refers to Flightaware. The problem was that Flightaware interpolates between points as it does not have full global coverage. So what happened was that somebody compared the interpolated data from Flightaware with the actual route for MH17! I would be prepared to believe that this was an innocent error and was never intended maliciously – Flightaware has itself confirmed that the interpolation scenario is correct.
The map then gained a life of its own and was picked up by many news outlets.
In fact, it was not only the couple of days before 17th July that MAS used a similar route – they essentially flew over the same area on ALL flights between 8th July and 17th July. It has been reported that the route was of concern to crew members and that 2 crew members had actually refused to fly on the fateful day.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2698579/Two-cabin-crew-refused-fly-doomed-plane-war-zone-safety-fears-Senior-pilots-cabin-crew-flagged-concerns-flight-path-weeks-tragedy.html
An excellent (and far more detailed) discussion of the above can be found here:
https://www.metabunk.org/debunked-mh17-10-previous-flightpaths-different-from-17-7.t4378/
So the only remaining mystery seems to be why the ‘thunderstorm’ scenario was ever suggested… I think I will just let that one go.
@Trond:
I’m not sure I follow you but it may be healthy for you to step back and watch and learn some. Playing stupid (seemingly) is a part of what they do. If you don’t have anything in replace of what is, you will be in trouble. EU is hardly perfect, but what would be perfect? It is about clinging on to what we have. And winning the inch. And avoiding war. There is only a few quick fixes available, all of them horrible and none with proven result historically. Except for the capital perhaps. Things are rarely what they seem to be. Your true friend might be among those who seem least likely to be that: day-to-day politicians.
@Johan
Mankind can’t create money out of thin air indefinitely and not causing severe consequences. It will logicly collapse. The more they prop up the harder the fall. They are playing gods/madmen on the innocents expense.
@Trond:
It may look that way, and be that way surely in some places, but I am not at all convinced it is generelly so. I am more scared someone will pick my pocket while I am looking at the headlines in awe.
@PaulC:
So there was nothing to an irregular flight path?
Thanks for looking that up.
@Jeff
Thanks for your post.
1) The MH17 non-disclosure agreement was reported in (amongst others) the Ukrainian media. Try this in Google Translate as an example:
http://gordonua.com/news/mh17crash/gpu-rezultaty-rassledovaniya-krusheniya-boeing-777-budut-obnarodovany-po-soglasiyu-storon-sledstviya-36089.html
Quote:
GPU: the Boeing 777 crash investigation results will be announced by agreement
Ukraine, the Netherlands, Australia and Belgium August 8 signed an agreement on non-disclosure of information obtained during the investigation.
Data on the MH17 crash in Donetsk Region will be published in obtaining the consent of all parties who are involved in the investigation.
This was stated by a representative of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine Yuri Boychenko, reports UNIAN .
According to the official, Ukraine, the Netherlands, Australia, and Belgium signed a corresponding agreement was August 8th.
In the HCP said that at present investigations are ongoing, conducted the examination.
End quote.
2) Here you will find a video of an interview with the wife of the pilot of MH17:
https://off-guardian.org/2015/08/09/the-mh17-pilots-corpse-more-on-the-cover-up-even-his-family-was-blocked-from-it-heres-why/comment-page-1/
Quote:
The pilot’s wife says, at 5:42 on the video, “We were not allowed to open” the coffin.
Q: “Not allowed by who?”
A: “Not allowed by the [Malaysian] government.”
End quote
3) You will find information regarding the Australian autopsies here:
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=14322
Partial quote:
Although the DSB doesn’t say so, its report corroborates findings published in November and December of last year by the Victorian State Coroner Ian Gray and Australian pathologists working in The Netherlands. Read their testimony, before it was recently classified.
End quote
@Trond:
From the mind of an “ambitious” character not to be emulated:
… And all our yesterdays have lighted fools, the way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle! Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage. And then is heard no more. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury. Signifying nothing.
Perhaps we can at least meet half way?
@Johan
It would seem that the idea of an irregular flightpath really was an honest mistake. It is odd that the notion of an irregular flightpath got a great deal of attention but the facts about how the idea arose have gone largely unreported.
@PaulC:
I see. God thing you sorted that out. It may have been a dishonest mistake, too, but it shouldn’t matter to us.
@Jeff
One other point I meant to mention. The US is not noted as a signatory to the MH17 non-disclosure agreement, so why has the US not released satellite data?
Given what was going on in Ukraine at that time, I doubt anyone would believe that there is no such data and it is beyond absurd that the DSB is spending so much effort to ascertain from where the BUK was launched, when the US probably has a postal address for the launch site.
@Keffertje
Other airlines flying over Donetsk region that day were Singapore Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, Jet Airways, PIA, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Emirates and Austrian Airlines. The Singapore Airlines plane was apparently only 15 miles away from MH17 when it was shot down. Source Daily Mail.
But did the Russians (with their Ukranian allies) deliberately target a civil airliner? Quite possible, knowing the Russians. Witness what they are now doing to the people of Aleppo. The Russians have always taken tactical liberties whenever they judge they can get away with it. They perceive Obama as a weak President, on the international stage, just as they did with Carter when they invaded Afganistan, and with Kennedy, when Khrushchev decided to put nuclear-tipped missiles on Cuba. Unfortunately for Khrushchev, he had underestimated the resolve (balls, to put it bluntly) of Kennedy, who faced him down, successfully as it turned out, thank God. I remember it well. I was “passing” bricks at the time, even though I was only a 14 year old schoolboy.
Bottom line, the Russians only respect military might when it is coupled with international political self assurance and resolve. Roll on President Trump.
That enough of the evangelism.
Did they deliberately target Malaysian Airlines? Very difficult to say. Probably not. More likely it was coincidental.
@Jeff
The MH17 JIT was formed in August 2014 but did not include Malaysia! At that time the Malaysian ambassador to the Netherlands stated that Malaysia in fact was not allowed to be part of the JIT.
Malaysia did participate in the talks about forming JIT but refused to sign the non-disclosure agreement. It was, therefore, only part of the technical investigation team and not part of the team behind the criminal probe.
As reported in December 2014, Malaysia did eventually join JIT:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-12/01/c_127267516.htm
In the meantime, Elsevier tried to force the Dutch government to disclose details of the agreement under Dutch freedom of information laws. The following from Malaysia-today explains briefly (there is a lot more if you look for it):
http://www.malaysia-today.net/mh17-a-scandal-in-the-making/
The Elsevier article itself has since been taken down.
@ROB
“But did the Russians (with their Ukranian allies) deliberately target a civil airliner? Quite possible, knowing the Russians.”
How much russians you know personally? I know few of them, also few ukrainians, also few americans etc, mostly thanks to last work in very multinational company and till now I am working with argentinian living in Toronto and libanonian or egyptian living in San Diaego – all those people are the same good guys, but when somebody starts to generalise based on nationality then it oes near to nationalism and is not far from nazi approach… It seems that russian as single only nationa are still in the whole world seen as some extra-terrestrial nemesis or so… ridiculous; I this is telling you somebody who had Soviet(!) but soldiers on own soil for 20 years as it started by illegal invasion of many other “former fiends”. Bad times, but they are away…
And your sentence starts with another nonsense… the ukrainian CIVIL war is hapening between their own people mostly, as east is defending against attack from official government who has even air forces – there are NO air forces on the side of the so called “rebels” or “terrorists” … absolutelly nothing what can fly, nothing; those “separatists” are people who dont conform with nationalism of government, who tried even to ban russian language in their area and they simply dont know other language, you know… it started with this in fact, I saw it personally while watiching live their duma/parliament; so probably russians somehow helps them little bit over the border, probably some spetznaz/spaecial services can be there to prevent even harder impacts, mayb some logistic support, ya, sure, as simply etnic russians live there, their people… your foverment woudl do the same thing in such case, be absolutelly sure… the same as UK gov defended their citizens on Falklands or so… so inmy oppinion, this is what hapened in Crimea, where russian ethnicity (and real will/wish to be part of them) is over 90%, confirmed by referendum; soldies there probably also prevented far bigger warfare even there, thanks God; howgh!
@PaulC, Great job on all the digging, thanks for clarifying matters. Regarding US non-release of satellite data, bear in mind that generally ongoing investigations do not release information, as we’ve experienced so frustratingly with MH370. I would add that the exact launch spot of the Buk missile is now entirely clear, so it doesn’t really matter that much any more.
@Rob, You wrote, “Did they deliberately target Malaysia Airlines?” This is indeed the central question. The JIT is clearly now hell-bent on their ultimate objective: determining what individual or individuals ordered and carried out the firing of the Buk missile that took down MH17.
@Brock, If an event with an unknown perp happened after a similar crime with a known perp, everyone would assume the perp of the first crime also committed the second. So if you wanted to screw over the perp of the first case, you could carry out the second crime in a way that covered your tracks and let blame fall on the other. In the case of MH370/MH17, the situation is reversed: the crime with the unknown perp happened first. So by brazenly carrying out the second attack, the perp of the second attack is in effect claiming responsibility (in a flimsily deniable way) for the first.
Not to be too cryptic: the party we’re talking about here is Russia.
@ll
BTW this year I completelly missed streaming ot this event; last year there was Beyonce singing together with Eddie Veder ))
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vT5NZof2rxc
@Rob, There is a lot of contradictory information. JIT is not (yet) revealing everything they know and what they do not may not hold up in the International criminal courts. My personal view is : it takes a rocket scientist to build one, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to fire one. I think someone royally f…cked up, and then covered it up. Was it done on purpose? My take is: no. But I could be wrong. I cannot imagine anyone would shoot down a commercial jet on purpose and kill innocent civilians. Hopefully the continuing investigation will reveal more data, especially radar from both sides. If the conclusion is that it was done on purpose and innocent civilians were the target, I think all hell will break loose. But we are a long way from knowing that conclusively.
@PaulC
Thank you for that update.
[False information deleted by JW] Gloria, you have provided some interesting input in past comments, and are fairly new to this blog, so I don’t want to be too abrupt with you, but you must understand that I will not tolerate trutherism here.
@falken, We are not talking about impuging the character of Russians in general. We are talking about actions carried out by individuals.
I will admonish you once again about posting links that are radically off-topic. I welcome you as a participant in this discussion but I have to keep things from going off the rails.
[Kremlin propoganda deleted by JW] @PaulC, I have zero tolerance for this sort of thing
Dennis, RetiredF4:
I’ve just came across Swiss Air 111 crash investigation report, which was downed by onboard fire:
http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-reports/aviation/1998/a98h0003/a98h0003.pdf
What stroke me is that the transponders and communications stopped working, including 3 VHFs. One interesting peculiarity/similarity is that ACARS stopped working some 40 minutes before the crash. It was concluded that crew likely pulled the bus breakers to control the fire. With regard to the ACARS, it has similar explanation to what I proposed earlier with regard to MH370. Citation from Swiss Air 111 crash report (p.222):
—
“The loss of ACARS on VHF 3 at 0047:06 can be explained by the pilots switching VHF 3 from data mode to voice mode in an attempt to use this radio for communications. The message protocol data from the ACARS provider indicates that the pilots must have switched VHF 3 to voice mode at 0047:06 when the ACARS changed to the satellite mode of transmission; the pilots then switched VHF 3 back to data mode at 0104:14.”
Here you are.
@Keffertje:
I wonder if is possible to shoot down a an airliner by mistake. It sounds more like someone has twisted someone’s head or arm. And/or with some pretext to achieve a truce or why not even some conspiracy story about what really happened to MH370 that would make MAS planes free game?
Of course, if the separatists wanted to make clear to Kiev that they had BUK, then at the end of the day, you will need to find a plane to shoot down, won’t you?
It is hard to see any benefits from shooting an airliner down, except that it will be very easy to “neutralise” any party that was instrumental in making it happen.
@Johan
Yes, it is a very nice boat. Impeccably maintained,…
It falls into a class of things that seem to turn out badly for me. Classical Cali examples are the charm of Lake Tahoe until you purchase a house there and the pipes freeze in the winter. Or the charm of the North Coast until you buy a place there and the sea ravages it. Bottom line is that entropy is not your friend. It takes a lot of energy to keep things in order. Nature wants to reclaim all of your possessions. A sailboat on salt water requires a lot of TLC.
Circling back to the topic here, I am reminded of work I did early in my career on high end tape recorders for intelligence gathering. We described a tape recorder as a machine that almost does not work. So it goes with a commercial airliner. I think we tend to underestimate the complexity, and the number of things that have to go just right in order for it to stay in the air. People with a fear of flying have a point.
@Brock McEwen
Interesting observation that MH17 may have been used by the MG to throw investigators off the scent re: MH370. Not 9M-MRD (the one that was shot down…9M-MRO vanished) in particular but it looks like MH17 & MH16 were generically flying over a hot zone even after budget carriers had given it a miss.
For the Russians MH17 was a stuff up.
First it was look in the SCS & Cambodia when they knew 9M-MRO had crossed the Malaysian Peninsula. Then look in the SIO please, then the flaperon turned up and now we add MH17 to the deception. Interesting, very interesting.
@Jeff
ok, fair, your argument is mentioned by many, not being against group but just the one most ugly bad guy… and I tell you that lot of really bad guys are afraid not of the group but the one(s) in power, who can damage theirs gray/black business, obviously; no; I know its considered off topic there and I apologize, but I have absolutelly nothing against the specific inidivitual too, becuase I already know him, the same as your former president told; and I am not afraid, have no reason; hust my personal POV, sure; whats happening for example in Syria now is complex and nobody probably want sto lose face, hope wise wins
(and really, I will stop it; thanks)
@DennisW:
The water is brackish (in the Baltic Sea; I will get back to that), but maintenance you will not escape. In many parts of Sweden, as along the Pacific coast without doubt, you are in a sense actually already being taxed to death by nature — more than in other places. At a certain age, you will realise that with full force if not long before. The tax is raised in a pace that corresponds to your lessening ability to gather the dough. You are right.
So in a sense, state income tax, that’s the explicit idea, is meant to make conditions more predictable, possible to handle, safer and to be there when your back is broken, i.e. to cover for the money spent paying the often cruel and unfair taxes to nature. It is an insurance against ticks, pneumonia and hurricanes (– and even a few escapist adventures (like paragliding) that some people do at all ages but esp. when nature is starting to catch up with them.) Another tricky thing is that the level is sloping either way, rarely even.
But on a sunny evening on the peaceful Baltic Sea, among green islands, with the wind in your back, nature is kind. And in cold winters when the sea freezes (for being brackish) and you can walk, skate or drive to Finland on the ice, nature is good to you, relatively speaking.
@stendec
I had a sickening feeling that some kind of awful sacrifice – or tribute – had taken place.
Great post by the way and wow! Very interesting angle – one I’ve never seen or read anywhere so far. A masonic or religious cult sacrifice in the middle of the Indian Ocean. Maybe to appease someone’s Christ or Antichrist? Wow! You have certainly added another (in my opinion) credible theory into the mix. One which never crossed my mind!
Sometimes, ones first impression or gut feeling about an incident turns out to be the most interesting.
What I find strange about MH370 is that, even on that very first day, it seemed the media already knew this would end up a mystery. In fact, it almost seemed they were willing it to be so.
@Jeff
@stendec – ‘I do disagree with you, however – this is not a mystery that will be left to our grandchildren
I don’t know. The more time passes the more it seems unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.
@Brock
the connection is one of appearance: the second plane was brought down to generate the false impression of a pattern…. Since nobody is claiming responsibility, this suggests strongly that the “pattern” of the two identical planes may be part of a ploan to throw us off the scent.
And the perps chose to down an MAS 777 over Ukraine because they knew it would reinforce the erroneous (?) idea that MH370 was sanctioned by Russia (?) Just a thought!
Anything that can be maintained by lies is not worth maintaining
Brock, I am a great fan of your posts and especially your openness in entertaining the ‘M’ word. But here I disagree with you. if the Americans shot down MH370 and covered it up, or if the Indians did it, or the Malaysians, or the Chinese, or Aussies… I would prefer state secrets and obfuscation to increased international tensions and possible all-out conflict.
Just step back and imagine, for example, India downing an airliner with 152 Chinese on board then covering it up for a further 2+ years. Better to maintain that lie forever than coming out with “…oh, by the way, we might’ve shot that plane of your’s way back when…”
@Johan, I tend to give people the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. The Roman days of thumbs down 🙂 are over. Did you see the interviews with Ukranian rebels in the weeks after MH17 was shot down? I doubt they could seperate 2 colored pencils under stringent control. I do believe it could have been a mistake, i.e. they thought it was a Ukranian aircraft of sorts or did not look properly when they shot. Once they realized what they had done, evidence was quickly moved driven back to Russia (3 missiles remaining). We will have to wait and see :).
in another strange coincidence about MH17 is that Najib and Hishammuddin’s step grandmother was onboard.
So its another one for MH370, MH17, Russia, Malaysia, etc linkage…
http://www.malaysiandigest.com/frontpage/29-4-tile/509660-najib-hishammuddin-s-step-grandmother-on-board-mh17.html
@SteveB, No worries! Blaine Gibson is not giving up. He will find MH370 for us. Just waiting for him to don some flippers and a snorkel :).
@Keffertje:
If you say so. I don’t doubt their stupidity being up to the task, but there could be technical issues that would make it at least much harder to lock on and follow through on what is obviously a plane flying at a considerable height (among other passing airliners at same flight-level) even for a country as big as Ukraine. Someone probably told them that plane was the one to strike. Whether a mistake or not I must say I doubt they lived through to the evening.
@Richard Cole
Following the rabbit down the hole, this always seems to happen to me, I have found the work of Ole Peters, London Math Lab Fellow and Sante Institute External Professor, to be fascinating. Just when you think you understand something you are hit by a train you did not realize was even there.
Perhaps you already know about Peters.
@Johan, We will have to await the continuing investigations. I am not ruling out a mistake, an egregious one at that. Would be interesting to hear from Jeff how he viewes the investigative team, namely the Dutch. I don’t know if such an investigation is way over their head. Also hoping they don’t have blinders on as it relates to involvement of others.
@DennisW,Richard Cole
I was also struck by Dennis’ comment that the BFOs are not so reliable. That means Simon Hardy is possibly on the right track with his YouTube video “Simon Hardy Technique Video” just using the 7 arcs. Hardy is assuming arcs 4-5-6 are true, but maybe there was turn. In any case, if we can toss out BFO data, anybody can make up a route like Simon Hardy did. DIY flight routes- no physics degree needed.
@buyerninety
Re: Helios there was only the initial bogus report by a person seeking attention made up a fake text message saying bodies were frozen. As far as I could see, the official report said the victims were alive upon crash but unconscious due to lack of O2. Apparently these is no data recorded of Cabin Temp? That would be a shortcoming of Digital Flight Recorder if true, but I saw no temp measurements.
@DennisW
And in the field of cosmology, our ultimate understanding of how the Universe works, has been just around the corner for quite a while now! Apparently, no one told the Universe, though. Man’s (with a capital M) conceit knows no bounds.
@Keffertje, I have been very impressed by the Dutch investigation, who are working under very difficult circumstances. I think it’s also worth acknowledging the incredible contribution made by Bellingcat, who have invented a whole new way to ferret out the truth, and have been working in the midst of constant harrassment by Russian trolls.
@TBill
Hardy’s method seems to be a special case of the more general DSTG model, that is using a defined start point, the BTO data, a model of how the aircraft would be flown, but not the BFO data. I haven’t kept up with any recent modifications to the Hardy predictions, but when I checked last time they were within the already searched area.
@Jeff, Thank you. That means a lot! Russian trolls indeed:)
@Keffertje
And the special feature of Russian trolls is that they come as a set, nested inside each other. 🙂
@Richard Cole
In the recent previous pages of this blog there are several updates (recent press articles) that say the search will stop just short of the Hardy-proposed area. Hardy is considering a crowd source fund raiser, it says.
@Jeff:
The Bellingcat investigation, that is the social media tracking used to follow the movements of the Buk-transport, wasn’t it (excuse my ignorance)? It would be interesting to hear and learn more about how that was done.
@Jeff Wise
I think the result of the dutch investigation into MH17 gives large weight on the assumption, that MH17 was targeted and that it was very strong to connect the two dots of MH17 and MH370. You are on the right way whatever the outcome may be. In respect to MH17 , i think someone in Russia wanted to send a message to Najib. Also it becomes evident, that the asymetric warfare of Russia in the Criema territory met with other means of asymetric warfare, like attacks on civil aviation. Many people think, The Crimea capture somehow mark the beginning of WWIII
@DennisW
It is understood between us, that a flight projection works the way, you described it. But when it comes to the Operational Headquarter of one of the major airlines in the world, i would bet my last few dollars on the assumption, that every clerk in that Headquarter, every rank and file knows the diference of a flight projection to a flight plan even better than we do. Its sems rather impossible to me, that the people from MAS HQ did not know , what they told to the vietnames ATC that night. And if so, it would be a very strange and very rare singularity. If you have the singularity of the greatest mystery of aviation and you have the singularity of a very strange desinformation in the same context, you would naturaly conect the dots, and be almost certain about a conspiracy. This even more when you have the next singularity of an event that never happens: the re logon of the Sat unit, and this singularity not only once but twice. And the next singularity is, that this never happening event takes place exactly at the time, where the primary radar signals abruptly stop
@airline-industry folks
So based on recent discussion here on Jeff’s articles, I am asking if ACARS reports error message if Cabin Temp or Preasure goes off range? Say below 15 deg C (60 deg F) for Temperature (or also over 80F) and say over 10,000-ft (FL100) for Cabin “altitude”.
Second question – Does the Digital Flight Recorder record Cabin Temp at all?
One would think this is needed. Now I can read Christine Negroni’s recent book to see if she commented on this too.
@TBill
The language about the search stopping short of the Hardy predicted locations seems to date back to Dec 2014. Since then the search has expanded. I can track two sets of predictions from Hardy, in Dec 2015 and Nov 2015 respectively, and they are both inside the currently completed search area, as indicated in the map below.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/r7w9lut8nvqkzv7/29-9-16.jpg?dl=0
I don’t think David Learmount (from Flightglobal magazine), who is still writing about this, has kept up with events. To be fair to him ATSB do not published details of the completed search area – I have had to spend £££ to acquire the information to generate these maps.
@Richard Cole, And you are our hero for keeping us all informed of the search progress, at significant personal expense of time and money.
@Johan, Yes, that’s right, Bellingcat pioneered a crowd-sourced approach to analyzing vast amounts of social media, what they call “Open Source Intelligence.” They’ve produced over a dozen reports on MH17 alone, I encourage you to check them out.