Last week we discussed what we know about the first hour of MH370’s disappearance, based on primary radar data and the first Inmarsat BTO value. Today I’d like to talk about the BFO data and what it can tell us about MH370’s fate.
As longtime readers of this blog well know, the Burst Frequency Offset (BFO) is a type of metadata that measures how different the frequency of an Inmarsat signal is from its expected value. It is an important value to a communications satellite operator like Inmarsat because if the value gets too large, the system will be operating outside its approved frequency limit. One cause of such a change would be if a satellite begins wandering in its orbit, which indeed was the case with MH370. The fact that the Satellite Data Unit (SDU) aboard MH370 did not properly compensate for drift in the Inmarsat satellite overhead is the reason the BFO data contains a signal indicating what the plane was doing.
While each of the BTO values recording during the seven “pings” tells us fairly precisely how far the plane was from the satellite at that time, the BFO data points taken individually do not tell us much about the plane was doing. Taken together, however, they indicate three things:
- After the SDU logged back on with Inmarsat at 18:25, the plane took a generally southern course. If we didn’t have the BFO data, we wouldn’t know, from the BTO data alone, whether the plane followed a path to the north or to the south (see above.)
- The plane had turned south by 18:40. The BFO value at the time of the first incoming sat phone call at 18:40 indicates that the plane was traveling south.
- At 0:19:37 the plane was in a rapid and accelerating decent.
However, as I’ve previously described, if all of these things were true, then the plane would have been found by now. So at least one of them must be false. In the course of my interview with him, Neil Gordon said that the ATSB is firmly convinced that #3 is true, and that as a result he suspects that #2 is not. Specifically, he points out that if the plane were in a descent at 18:40, it could produce the BFO values observed. Thus it is possible that the plane did not perform a “final major turn” prior to 18:40 but instead loitered in the vicinity of the Andaman Islands or western Sumatra before turning and flying into the southern ocean. If this were the case, it would result in the plane turning up to the northeast of the current search area. An example of such a route has been described by Victor Iannello at the Duncan Steel website.
It is worth nothing that such a scenario was explicitly rejected as unlikely by the Australian government when they decided to spend approximately $150 million to search 120,000 square kilometers of seabed. The reason is that it was deemed unlikely that the plane would just happen, by chance to be descending at the right time and at the right rate to look like a southward flight. For my part, I also find it hard to imagine why whoever took the plane would fly it at high speed through Malaysian airspace, then linger for perhaps as much as an hour without contacting anybody at the airline, at ATC, or in the Malysian government (because, indeed, none of these were contacted) and then continuing on once more at high speed in a flight to oblivion.
Well, is there any other alternative? Yes, and it is one that, though historically unpopular, is becoming imore urgent as the plane’s absence from the search area becomes increasingly clear: the BFO data is unreliable. That is to say, someone deliberately altered it.
There are various ways that we can imagine this happening, but the only one that stands up to scrutiny is that someone on board the plane altered a variable in the Satellite Data Unit or tampered with the navigation information fed back to the SDU from the E/E bay. Indeed, we know that the SDU was tampered with: it was turned off, then logged back on with Inmarsat, something that does not happen in the course of normal aircraft operation. It has been speculated that this depowering and repowering occurred as the result of action to disable and re-enable some other piece of equipment, but no one has every come up with a very compelling story as to what that piece of equipment might be. Given the evident problems with the BFO data in our possession, I feel we must consider the possibility that the intended object of the action was the SDU itself.
When I say BFO tampering has been “historically unpopular,” what I mean is that almost everyone who considers themselves a serious MH370 researcher has from the beginning assumed that the BFO data was generated by a normally functioning, untampered-with SDU, and this has limited the scenarios that have been considered acceptable. For a long time I imagined that search officials might know of a reason why tampering could not have occurred, but I no longer believe this is the case. When I questioned Inmarsat whether it was possible that the BFO data could have been spoofed, one of their team said “all Inmarsat can do is work with the data and information and the various testings that we’ve been doing.” And when I raised the issue with Neil Gordon, he said, “All I’ve done is process the data as given to me to produce this distribution.” So it seems that the possibility of BFO spoofing has not been seriously contemplated by search officials.
If we allow ourselves to grapple with the possibility that the BFO data was deliberately tampered with, we quickly find ourselves confronting a radically different set of assumptions about the fate of the plane and the motives of those who took it. These assumptions eliminate some of the problems that we have previously faced in trying to make sense of the MH370 mystery, but introduce new ones, as I’ll explore in upcoming posts.
@Johan
My significant other is from Sweden. She actually grew up above the arctic circle, and has rather strong negative opinions of her countrymen in the Stockholm area. Of course she has strong negative opinions of Norwegians, Finns, and especially Danes. From time to time she does emerge from svarmod.
Living above the arctic circle is like growing up in an Ingmar Bergman film, and you never quite achieve normalcy, From time to time we go to Sweden to sail on the Baltic with her father. Both Ami (pronounced like tummy) and her dad are expert sailers and navigators. I will say the Baltic is an amazing place to be in a sailboat.
@Keffertje:
I will take your advice. Thanks.
@Johan, In a nutshell, the missile was seen to be transported from/to Russia. From Russia – 4 missiles, back to Russia 3 missiles remaining. They also have a lot of TAP (phone) conversations between unidentified people. They also know exacttly from which spot the missile was launched. They also stated they know of 100 people that are either witnesses or involved with the act. Criminal investigation is ongoing and JIT is still looking for people to come forward.
@Keffertje:
Thanks. Hrm. It was mainly the war-zone aspect that interested me.
@Johan
if you are curious about my nick, then search for (professor; not my case) Falken and WarGames movie – I like this guy approach more and more… and BTW you can go for couple of biers to have meeting in Prague; no Russians, no FSB, no KGB :))
@Jeff
ok, sorry, I feel that I need to tell something near to truth if there something smells like a heap of dead fishes; but, you know, I have all the time my own things to do and this may be really last time I mention something about any 777 downed
@Ge Rijn
have you any problem with me?? I am sure there is no other who tried to find as much as possible about ukrainian-russian conflict, since the start; I even watched their Espreso TV during 01-03/2014 events and sent them some clothes and even money to Maijdan … but the initial “anti-terrorist” effort started to reverse later because of lot of evidences gathered; now I dont believe Ukrainians simply NOTHING; including Bellingcats, which is listed as cooperative org on UA ministry of defense; at least was, I am tired to check it all again for others, everybody CAN…
@NOKs and his friends… my condolences again; I am sure that who did this will finally hang after Hague or Nurnberg process or so…
@Johan, Missile was launched from the war zone, i.e. Ukraine territory by Ukraine rebels(funded and helped by the Russians). That seems to be without dispute. There is evidence (film footage) showing that the missiles were transported from/to Russia. In the end that’s what it is all about. Russia is blaming the Ukraine and vice versa. Everyone knows the war zone was where the rebels fought against the Ukranians.
@Jeff @all
ok, so you have my last reply to folks here and I dont remeber it and will not retype it and will not post anything anymore here, be sure; have no time for this and far important business anyway than to try to tell you I am not making any propaganda, only trying to find the truth…
It would seem Malaysia was specifically targeted in this Russian missile issue..
@MH, Malaysia was not the target at all. Aircraft was in the wrong place at the wrong time.
@falken:
Well, I knew the name was of Latin etymology and has linguistic versions in parity with that. Actor John Wood is not a bad role-model. We have a pretty decent mass market beer with that name (Falcon; from Falkenberg), but if God was more allowing, being a Pilz guy, I would have Czech beer every day of the week. And a few German. Cheers!
that is only part of the story, how did the flight get off track ?
I have come across: the Ukrainian ATC put gave misinformation, and also it was said that military jets forced it into that path.
@Keffertje:
I hope I am not stepping in something but I wondered why the heck MAS flew over a war-zone. Other airlines did not. I have been told.
@Johan ya, thanks and cheers too )), seriously, I liked the ZDF Die Anstalt about the subject that days and we in fact like germans a lot here now, despite the serious issues in history; mine personally because of BND preventing sceintologists anywhere near of your government – this is briliiant ))
@Johan
MH17 on that day was 300 miles north of the route the flight usually took…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10975524/Crashed-MH17-flight-was-300-miles-off-typical-course.html
@DennisW – Thank you for your explanation of the BFO errors.
@DennisW:
So you have found your amicus and kindred spirit in a Norrbottning! Well, it is small world after all. And settled in rural northern California (It so happens that California and Sweden are about the same size, and somewhat similar in terms of shape; but the likeness ends there. Sweden’s lentgh is 2000 km driving distance, and then you need to walk or ski the last 100 km over the tundra.). I am beginning to get a much better picture of you (and notice that you have learned a considerable amount of the vocabulary from her tracts…).
Well please send my regards and say “Hej!” to Ami. And ask her to try to raise above the demographic circumstances. I am born in the provinces myself (as are anyone in Sweden outside a couple of blocks in Centre Stockholm), so I know about the tendencies towards inbread animosity against the capital. It has been like that for some 900 years, and with our population density and (pen-)insular position at the northern margin of Europe, it is hard to see how it could be different. It is not easy to keep the northern parts populated.
So you have been here sailing. That is amazing. I can almost see “the same” Baltic Sea (with modification) if I stretch my neck some. I guess you’ve been sailing the Bay of Bothnia, the archipelagos there and perhaps towards Kvarken, hopefully in midnight sun. I do not count among the sailors myself but my son is learning through the boyscouts. The Baltic Sea is in many senses what Sweden rose up from, and if your Ami is a navigator she will see the strategic and human value of the archipelagos between Stockholm, Åland and Åbo (Turku), and reaching around, which was hub and thoroughfare of a once pretty wet kingdom. That is Stockholm, to be precise. And they still say it here: “It is location, location, location.” Cheer her up!
@PaulC:
Many thanks for that one. The article is from early days, so much might have surfaced, but it doesn’t sound very good. I mean how much money did they expect to save, especially since apparently most of their own previous departures had gone to the south of the warzone, 300 miles to the south.
We’ll remember the words from the MAS spokesperson: “This route is an approved route. 15 out of 16 airlines use this route. It’s a safe route.”
Indeed.
@Johan
The biggest issue for me has always been why did the Ukrainian ATC put the plane there? One of the Russian journalists at the presentation today asked pretty much the same question but was told that was not in the remit of the work they had been doing.
Another ‘oddity’ was that guy ‘Carlos’ (he said he was a Spanish ATC at Kiev) who was tweeting within 2 hours of the crash blaming the Ukranians, who then disappeared. If he was for real – what happened to him? If he was a fake – who did it and why?
@PaulC
“The biggest issue for me has always been why did the Ukrainian ATC put the plane there?”
I am not sure ATC played a role here. Conventional wisdom had MH17 flying farther North to avoid a thunderstorm. The route change was their request, and the granted route was in accordance with routing and flight level restrictions in place at the time.
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-fateful-thunderstorm-may-have-doomed-flight-mh17-2014-7
In general, routes are planned by airline operations centers taking into account path optimization for distance and weather. ATC’s responsibility is to keep planes from crashing into each other.
@DennisW wrote
“In general, routes are planned by airline operations centers”
I think it could pay off if MAS invests into professional development of operation centres.
@Johan
Yes, it is a Norwegian name. Trondheim is a city which translates to Trondhome.
@DennisW
Thanks for that Dennis. I was aware of the thuderstorm scenario initially put out, (your link is dated July 18th 2014) but that was later said to have been a fabrication created by British media:
Quote:
British news reports acknowledge that there was a change in the flight path, claiming without evidence that it was to “avoid thunderstorms in southern Ukraine”.
MAS operations director Captain Izham Ismail has also refuted claims that heavy weather led to MH17 changing its flight plan.“There were no reports from the pilot to suggest that this was the case,” Izham said. (News Malaysia July 20, 2014)
What is significant, however, is that the Western media acknowledged that the change in the flight path did occur, and the that “heavy weather” narrative is a fabrication.
End quote.
Kiev has always refused to release ATC comms with MH17 so we do not know who said what but some weeks afterwards there were allegations that Kiev had sent MH17 over Donetsk and MAS said that Kiev had instructed MH17 to fly at 330 instead of the 350 requested (not that that would have made an difference to a BUK).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2728660/Ukrainian-air-traffic-control-sent-doomed-flight-MH17-conflict-zone-Donetsk-region-says-Russia.html
@PaulC
Yes, I am aware there is a lot of controversy relative to the weather claim. We won’t know until the Kiev releases the ATC communication records. It is true that MH17 was generally on a great circle route, and that Malaysia had flown this same route in the two or three previous days. It is not clear why the ATC records have not been made public. Anyone have an explanation for that?
@DennisW
http://www.globalresearch.ca/malaysian-airlines-mh17-was-ordered-to-fly-over-the-east-ukraine-warzone/5392540
The above link has a map of what they say is the 10 day period immediately before July 17 – all the flights are well to the south.
Failure to disclose ATC comms is not the only oddity:
1) On August 8, 2014 Ukraine, the Netherlands, Australia and Belgium signed a non-disclosure agreement pertaining to data obtained during the investigation into the causes of the crash of Malaysian Airlines MH17
In the framework of the 4-country agreement signed on 8 August between Ukraine, the Netherlands, Belgium and Australia, information on the progress and results of the investigation of the disaster will remain classified.
This was confirmed at a briefing in Kiev under the auspices of the office of the Prosecutor General Yuri Boychenko. In his words, the results of the investigation will be published once completed only if a consensus agreement of all parties that have signed the agreement prevails. [Note: this gives Ukraine a veto on publishing anything about MH17!]
2) The family of the Malaysian victims were not allowed to open any of the caskets containing the remains.
3) Autopsies were carried out in Australia on the victims and results published (which included details of shrapnel collected during the autopsies) but the information was classified and removed a few days later.
@PaulC
I was basing my comment on the information linked below. I will check out your link.
https://wheretospotatairports.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-never-deviated-from-its-flight-plan-route/
@DennisW, @PaulC, DennisW is correct. It is not true that MH17 had traveled a very different route during the previous 10 days. As for the other points you cite, I have not heard them before. You have to be careful with MH17–in addition to the erroneous reporting that often takes place in the immediate aftermath of a crash, the Russian government has been very aggressive in spreading disinformation.
Jeff –
Please forgive or delete this post if it is too long or off-topic. It certainly isn’t my intention to derail a serious thread about Inmarsat data and its possible interpretation. It’s just…
I need to talk about the fascination that keeps bringing all of us us back here to this site, this debate, this subject; I’ve been reading – but not commenting upon – the contents of your blog on an almost daily basis since I first set eyes on it, seemingly ages ago. It’s been my go-to aggregator each time some new piece of data, rumour, or purported information washes up against the shores of our global media. In a way, this blog is the brick wall where we all come to bang our heads against the impenetrable mystery of it all.
The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is now, more than two and a half years after the initial event, almost as much about psychology and mythology as it is about scientific artefacts – and that’s what I’d like to talk about here, with your permission. We may all have to step back a little, take the longer view, and realise that this case could well be the BSAA ‘Star Dust’ of the early 21st Century – it may be our grandchildren, not us, who finally learn the geolocation of the doomed flight’s final resting place. Or it may simply never be found or solved to anyone’s satisfaction.
MH370 has become Myth now, the ultimate cold case, the one that, in this post-Snowden world of supposed total global surveillance, somehow managed to get away: the Black Dahlia of our electromagnetic skies, the dart full of souls thrown into the void by causes still unknown. All we can do is speculate, search, and hope for eventual resolution.
G-AGWH, lost for over fifty years, became a legend for its age: a lost jewel of glamour and an almost romantic mystery for a drab post-war era. The converted Lancaster bomber vanished over the Andes into a cloud of clinking cocktail glasses, fading Empire, fur-lined jackets, and rumours of espionage, smuggled diamonds and possible sabotage. The repeated Morse string ‘STENDEC’, received loud and clear by Santiago, was the endlessly analysed ‘Good night. Malaysian three seven zero’ of our grandparent’s generation. If one author could have captured the essence of the tragedy and the redemptive, life-saving lesson learned when Icarus finally met the jetstream in all his unknowing hubris, it would have been Saint-Exupéry, had he and his aircraft not been lost at sea years before.
MH370 is a legend now of our own age, but one that would have been better described by J G Ballard or William Gibson, set against a constant workaday, shabby-futuristic backdrop of routine technological miracles and horrors, and the long, normalised march of terroristic attrition. Psychotic pilot, thermal event, or used and burned zero-day exploit through the IFE or in the EE bay, we may never know: no one has ever claimed responsibility. For the last six hours, between waypoint MEKAR and the final ping, MH370 became the Flying Dutchman of the Aerospace Age, sailing the skies with death at the controls.
It’s the horror of not knowing what really happened in the last, long phase of the incident that drives most of us. The morbid, futile questions that we tend not to ask out of respect to the Next of Kin or for the sake of our own imaginations and peace of mind. For the more dispassionate, technically minded among us, it’s the sheer incredulity that, in this day and age, well beyond the brink of a new Cold War, an aircraft of that size and power, no matter how radio-silent, could simply fall off the screen edges of the known world without so much as a stray photon being detected. Who knows, if enough radio data could have been immediately retrieved from the Ham operators, ships and fishing boats dotted around the Indian Ocean, an attempt at using broadcast-band passive radar techniques and a lot of computing power could possibly have narrowed the search. The radio sky is never totally dark – perhaps that is the lesson to be learned from this incident for the future.
For the professionals on this board, I believe it is a matter of binary honour, and one simple question – Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah: hero, victim, or villain. What song the sirens sang, or what name Achilles assumed when he hid himself among women, though puzzling questions, are not beyond all conjecture… Or in this case, seemingly ever will be. It’s not so much that we don’t trust the data, more like we don’t trust the sources of any data anymore. It’s the 21st Century default position.
I’ll leave you all with a question, rather than any attempted answers. Sometimes, ones first impression or gut feeling about an incident turns out to be the most interesting – even though it is usually the first theory to be discarded. In my case, it was this – when it became apparent that Flight MH370 had veered-off into the Indian Ocean with all souls aboard, I had a sickening feeling that some kind of awful sacrifice – or tribute – had taken place. After all, beyond Diego Garcia, what is there in the middle of the Indian Ocean? Nothing.
Maybe whoever was at the controls wasn’t aiming for somewhere in the deep SIO, but rather someone – allegedly – buried slap bang in the middle of it. Somewhere a little more Northerly…
Just a thought.
@Keffertje
You are the one saying the Freescale employees were low rung technicians, not according to reports of the company. The fact that they had been working on cloaking technology and that their company products have a military application, all too convenient. It only took one Freescale employee to be in business with China. What does that have to do with company CEOs
Gosh you make some straw man arguments.
Freescale
or the dodgy cargo
MH370 was a military orchestrated hit.
@Trond
“@JeffWise
I’ll keep reading your articles about MH370.
As for your anti-Russia, you are [insert whatever]. Banning people won’t make your anti-Russia propaganda true.”
Having grown up during the cold war have early memories of mainstream media anti Russian position. It seems the propaganda leans far less to commie bashing, far more to poking the bear, and move towards WW3 by the US.
Is this US backed NATO saber ratting at Putin’s door more to do with the shift in power broking through global banking systems with China on the assent and Russian/Chinese relations good. http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/17/china-launches-new-aiib-development-bank-as-power-balance-shifts/
Buyer beware
Malaysia was dipping their toe in that pond so maybe MH370 and MH17 was a re-education of their banking separatist desires…and see here China and Russia.
World economy will not be rebalanced like it says in that article because WW3 will put a stop to that puppy.
@Gloria
“Freescale
or the dodgy cargo
MH370 was a military orchestrated hit.”
Keffertje is right relative to the Freescale employees. They were process engineers. Kidnapping them would be like kidnapping an auto mechanic to design cars. Senseless. The knew nothing about the underlying design or the algorithms.
The cargo is also a non-issue. A manifest has been provided. You want to count battery chargers, be my guest.
Hint: Shah did it.
@stendec, I’m glad you find value in this blog, and I appreciate your stepping up to add these poetic thoughts. I do disagree with you, however — this is not a mystery that will be left to our grandchildren. The very fact that the case is so baffling is itself an important clue. The noose is tightening.
@Johan , Sweden sounds like a beautifull place. Have not yet had the pleasure of visiting. And it’s so close to the Netherlands. German beer is indeed the best and Belgian too!
@DennisW, As usual spot on regarding Freescale engineers! I could not have worded it better:)
I agree with the general sentiment that two MAS 777-200ER catastrophes in quick succession is worth exploring for evidentiary value.
Either this is a coincidence, or it isn’t. I assume I don’t need to run any figures – we’ve already decided it is either too big a coincidence to swallow (in which case no amount of mathematics is necessary), or plenty small enough to swallow (in which case, no amount of mathematics is sufficient).
IF it is too big a coincidence to swallow, we are left with two possibilities:
1) the connection is one of substance: the two planes suffered the same fate, at the hands of the same perp. All we need to do is solve one, and we’ve solved the other. MH17 was no coincidence because, for some reason, downing a plane incredibly similar to MH370 was key to the plan’s success.
2) the connection is one of appearance: the second plane was brought down to generate the false impression of a pattern. MH17 was no coincidence because it was selected specifically for its ability to throw investigators off the scent.
To me, 2) stands up to logical scrutiny far better than does 1). The only way 1) makes any kind of sense is if the perps are doing their level best to draw ATTENTION to their crime spree.
Since nobody is claiming responsibility, this suggests strongly that the “pattern” of the two identical planes may be part of a plan to throw us off the scent.
Misinformation designed to throw us off the scent being par for the course on this file, it would not surprise me to learn some day that this was the true purpose of MH17’s destruction.
In the course of my quest to hold search leadership accountable, I’ve been warned more than once not to dig too deep: the truth, the story usually goes, would cause calamity. Whether this argument is being made sincerely or not – and if sincerely, whether from a position of authority or not – I reject it utterly. Anything that can only be maintained by lies is not worth maintaining.
It is time to tell the truth. Enough of this silliness.
@Keffertje
I would recommend reading Xenophobe’s Guide to the Swedes before a visit. It is very helpful for keeping things in perspective and to realize the problem is not entirely your own.
@Richard Cole
I remain haunted by the differences in ensemble statistics and time averaging over a single trial. From Wiki below:
begin cut-paste//
ergodicity
In statistics, the term describes a random process for which the time average of one sequence of events is the same as the ensemble average.
end cut-paste//
The behavior of the oscillator in the AES, and all oscillators for that matter, is non-ergodic. That is the ensemble statistics might be very different than the observations obtained in the course of a single trial. What does this mean, and how do we deal with it? I am not quite sure. My sense is that it is at the very root of what Taleb refers to as a black swan.
My sense is that the BFO can be reliably used to know that the plane went South after the FMT. Beyond that I would hesitate to rely on the BFO for anything I would spend my money on.
@Johan, KLM top gun,Pieter Elbers, confirmed at the time that both AF and KLM also flew over East Ukrane before the disaster. IMO, it could have happened to any other carrier .
@DennisW, I will definitely do that:) ! Sailing the Baltic Sea must be a great experience. Sweden’s income tax rate is a killer so don’t ever immigrate :). You will go broke.
@Kaffertje
Yes, the tax laws in Sweden definitely do not take the Laffer Curve into account. It is really the reason Ami’s dad quit working (a brilliant high voltage engineering specialist, BTW). The incremental tax on his income made it a non-sensical endeavor.
The Baltic is, indeed, wonderful. The scenery, the food, Aland itself, the archipelago, the West Coast towns of Finland, are great. I would sign up for it in a heartbeat.
@DennisW, Yes that is so true! My father is an Electro Technical engineer. I grew up watching him make radars for his boat 🙂 Sharing a passion 🙂 he sounds like a great father-in-law! Finland is the only country I have been. It is beautiful and serene. I could easily retire there one day if the EU doesn’t fall apart. Ha ha.
what if: there is no FMT? what is it exact location?
@Brock McEwen, JIT has been asking for the radar data for 2 years now. Only a few days ago Russia finally provided it. If my information is correct, the Ukraine ATC data has not been provided either. Before MH17 was shot down other carriers flew the same/identical routes over Eastern Ukraine. The continuing investigations will have to show whether MH17 was indeed the target. People have been known to win the lottery twice, so am sure you can provide a probability on that :). Coincidences do happen.
@Gloria: thanks for the link. Very interesting trend indicator, regardless of connectivity to MH370.
While the article did support your argument in a very general sense (yes, China is rising, yes, others are flocking to it, and yes, this all scares the U.S.), it did not, to my eye, include any reference to Malaysia. Do you have sources I can read which prove they were being prodigal enough to incur such severe punishment?
I’m not arguing for or against your ideas. I’m just hoping to find out how rooted they are in hard evidence.
@Brock
The US is not the least bit scared of China other than being concerned about its collapse. China watchers generally lie somewhere between hyper-optimism and bears. There is not a lot of positive news. Most US companies are retreating from China because of censorship favoring local enterprises such as Alibaba over competing enterprises in the US, and the outright theft of intellectual property. Microsoft estimates that it derives less the 5 percent on China sales relative to other countries.
One need only visit Beijing to see less Mexican rebar in a three story building that I had in my driveway in San Jose. Did I mention air pollution in Beijing?
The country is a disaster. I used to enjoy visiting Shanghai, but even that city has gone far downhill from what it was a decade ago. I have taken all my investments out of China. Its only claim to fame is a huge population that it is struggling to feed.
@Trond:
Yes I know. Are you from Trondheim yourself?
@Keffertje:
You need to come visit then. It is close, if you go to Scania, but a little longer if you decide on the Polar Circle. Stockholm is conveniently in the middle. The nature is a bit lame compared to Norway and Switzerland and a somewhat acquired taste. But you get plenty of it, compared to the Nerherlands.
@Stendec, As Jeff said, sure hope we don’t have to wait for our grandchildren before MH370 is found. The culprit IMO betted on it taking a very long time, at a high cost, in the hopes that when it is found, it will be old news and long forgotten. It remains to be seen how much can be gleaned off cell phones by that time considering the CVR and FDR will likely reveal nothing.
@DennisW:
Sounds like Ami’s hydropower father could afford a pretty decent sailingboat though.
@Keffertje:
That is how we pay for roads, railroads, hospitals, schools and busses working in Norrland winter and summer despite the fact that 2/3 of the population lives on 1/4 of the country. Ask people in Stockholm what they think about that.
@DennisW
> My sense is that the BFO can be reliably used to know that the plane went South after the FMT. Beyond that I would hesitate to rely on the BFO for anything I would spend my money on.
That is the current position of the ATSB/DSTG search definition which does not use the detailed BFO values, so in that at least you agree with them.
@Brock McEwan
http://asianbankingandfinance.net/branch-banking/exclusive/why-are-malaysian-banks-aggressively-expanding-china
Remember that the economic strength of Malaysia is in the hands of Malaysian Chinese rather than Malays (holding political and legal power). Asian banking grows to see China playing both sides.
@Dennis W
I have spent several years living in China. The development of infrastructure is mind bogglingly rapid.
China can be a very frustrating place day to day, yes the pollution is terrible but they practice economic stealth in the same may the US practice military growth.
I dubt China will bite the hand that it feeds and visa versa so it leaves them with incremental economic ascendancy.
China and Russia have been buying up gold for some time.
Brock you will find more than several articles on this topic
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/20/russia-china-bankdeal.html
The economic domino effect of growing Chinese banking, is more concerning (to US) than the ideological one (communist) of cold war propaganda.
If you want to know why the US keeps pushing Russia to war, economic alliance is the reason, growth of Chinese alternative banking.
Malaysia through their national carrier was and is a soft target for actions of covert war.
http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1919707/yuan-given-russia-under-currency-swap-deal
@Keffertje:
To be more correct: 82 % of Sweden’s population lives on the lower 40 % of the country.