One minute after MH370’s flight crew said “Good Night” to Malaysia air traffic controls, and five seconds after the plane passed waypoint IGARI at 1720:31 UTC, the plane’s Mode S signal disappeared from air traffic control screens. As it reached the border of the Ho Chi Minh Flight Information Region (FIR) approximately 50 seconds after that, the plane made an abrupt 180 degree turn. The radius of this turn was so small, and the ground speed so low, that it appears to have been effected via a semi-aerobatic maneuver called a “chandelle.” Similar to a “box canyon turn,” this involves climbing under power while also banking steeply. The maneuver offered WWI pilots a way to reverse their direction of flight quickly in a dogfight.
Chandelles are not a normal part of commercial 777 operation. They would not be used by pilots responding to in-flight fire.
The fact that such an aggressive maneuver was flown suggests that whoever was at the controls was highly motivated to change their direction of flight. Specifically, instead of going east, they wanted to go west.
At the completion of the left-hand U-turn the plane found itself back in Malaysia-controlled airspace close to the Thai border. It flew at high speed (likely having increased engine thrust and dived from the top of its chandelle climb) toward Kota Bharu and then along the zig-zaggy border between peninsular Malaysia and Thailand (briefly passing through the outer fringe of Thai airspace) before making a right-hand turn south of Penang. We know this “based mostly on the analysis of primary radar recordings from the civilian ATC radars at the Kuala Lumpur (KUL) Area Control Centre (ACC) and at Kota Bahru on the east coast of Malaysia; plus (apparently) the air defense radars operated by the RMAF south of Kota Bahru at Jerteh, and on Penang Island off the west coast,” according to AIN Online.
At 18:02, while over the small island of Pulau Perak, the plane disappeared from primary radar, presumable because it had exceeded the range of the radar at Penang, which at that point lay 83 nautical miles directly behind the plane. Then, at 18:22:12, another blip was recorded, 160 miles to the northwest.
The most-asked question about the 18:22 blip is: why did the plane disappear then? But a more pressing question is: why did it reappear? If the plane was already too faint to be discerned by Penang when it was at Pulau Perak, then how on earth could it have been detected when it was three times further away?
One possibility is that it was picked up not by Malaysian radar, but by the Thai radar installation at Phuket. An AFP report from March 2014 quoted Thailand’s Air Marshal Monthon Suchookorn as saying that Thai radar detected the plane “swinging north and disappearing over the Andaman Sea,” although “the signal was sporadic.”
At 18:22, the plane was approximately 150 miles from Phuket. This is well beyond the range at which Penang had ceased being able to detect the plane. What’s more, when the plane had passed VAMPI it had been only about 120 miles from Phuket. If it hadn’t seen the plane when it was at VAMPI, how was it able to detect it when it was 30 miles further? And why just for a momentary blip?
I don’t believe that, as some have suggested, the plane climbed, was detected, and then dived again. As Victor Iannello has earlier pointed out, the plane was flying at around 500 knots, which is very fast, and suggests a high level of motivation to be somewhere else, not bleeding off speed through needless altitude changes.
I propose that what happened at 18:22 was that the plane was turning. Entering into a right bank, the plane would turn its wings temporarily toward the Phuket radar station, temporarily presenting a larger cross section. Then, when the plane leveled its wings to straighten out, the cross section would shrink, potentially causing the plane to disappear.
Why a right bank? The diagram at top is an annotated version of one presented in the DSTG’s “Bayesian Methods” book. The vertical white line is the 18:25:27 ping arc. The orange line represents the path from the 18:22:12 radar detection to the first ping arc. It is 13 miles long. To travel 13 miles in 3.25 minutes requires a ground speed of 240 knots. Prior to final radar return, MH370 was traveling at approximately 490 knots. A plane can’t slow down that quickly without a radical climbing maneuver, which can be dangerous at cruise altitude (cf Air France 447.)
If it had continued at its previous pace, the plane would have traveled 26.5 miles in that time — enough to carry it to the unlabeled yellow thumbtack. Or, to turn to the right and take the path shown in green.
I don’t mean this path to seem so precise and deterministic; there are errors associated with both the position of the ping arc and the radar return. The ping arc, for instance, is generally understood to have an error bar of about 10 km. If the ping arc radius is 10 km larger, and the radar hit location stays the same, then the heading will be be 336 degrees instead of 326 degrees; if the ping radius is 10 km smaller, the angle will be 310 degrees, representing just a 20 degree right turn from a straight-ahead path.
It does not, however, seem possible that the combined radar and ping-arc errors will allow a scenario in which the plane continued on its VAMPI-to-MEKAR heading and speed. As the “Bayesian Methods” book puts it, “the filtered speed at the output of the Kalman filter is not consistent with the 18.25 measurement, and predictions based purely on primary radar data on this will have a likelihood very close to zero.” Neil Gordon confirmed to me in our conversation that something must have changed.
Dr Bobby Ulich, in his recent work examing different flight-path scenarios, has also concluded that the plane turned north at this time. He looked at a southern turn, too, but observed that “the left-hand turn… needs a turning rate higher than the auto-pilot bank limit allows.”
Looking at the over picture of MH370’s first hour post-abduction, we note that:
- The timing of the silencing of the electronics was coordinated to within several seconds to the optimum time to evade detection.
- The 180-degree turnaround maneuver was highly aggressive.
- The plane’s course allowed it to remain in Malaysian airspace. After Penang it stayed closer to the Indonesian FIR (lower black line) than the Thai FIR (upper black line).
- Post diversion, the plane was traveling at high speed, faster than normal cruise flight. This suggests that whoever was flying it was motivated to escape primary radar surveillance–they wanted to get away.
- When last observed, MH370 was likely making a turn to the northwest, in the general direction of Port Blair in the Andaman islands. This is consistent with Air Marshal Monthon Suchookorn’s assertion that Thai radar detected the plane “swinging north and disappearing over the Andaman Sea.”
The overall shape of the flight path from IGARI to 18:25 is U-shaped, curving around Thai airspace. In the Malacca Strait it remained closer to the Indonesian side than the the Thai side. It is possible that the turn at 18:22 resulted from a compromise between two goals: to stay beyond the detection range of the radar station at Phuket, and to travel in a northwesterly direction.
It is widely believed that, since the plane presumable ended up in the southern Indian Ocean, the flight up the Malacca Strait was undertaken in order to avoid penetrating Indonesian airspace en route to the southern ocean. If this were goal, and the person flying the plane should have turned to the left at 18:22, onto a westerly or west-southwesterly heading.
The fact that they did not suggests that, whatever ultimately transpired aboard the plane, the goal prior to the “final major turn” was a destination to the northwest, and that the reason the plane flew southwest from IGARI before turning northwest was to avoid Thai airspace and radar surveillance.
Funny stuff. Bailey at it again.
http://tmex1.blogspot.com
@Jeffwise
I agree wholeheartedly with what you say about the BFO data. It was a surprise to everyone, not least to INMARSAT themselves. But I wasn’t so sure about the BTO data. But then, you have been in contact with INMARSAT, I haven’t. So you are better placed to know the facts of the matter. All I can say is that INMARSAT appear to have begun collecting this data on a routine basis in 2013. Is it not possible that Z had heard rumours about INMARSAT’s efforts in this area, on the grapevine? Could he have suspected they might have been capable of obtaining range measurements from data, and wanted to play safe, just in case? Possibly not, but it does appear (to me at least) that he wanted the SATCOM off-line until he was safely out of radar range.
@DennisW
I heard a rumour,I don’t know if it’s true or not, that the IRS have started chartering U2 missions out of Beale. 😉
It’s been a bit of an emotional rollercoaster today, so I’m turning in for the night. Adios amigo(s)
@Johan @Wazir
This article is a good representation of Malaysia.
I call it Malaysia’s Malaise.
Dict.
a general feeling of discomfort, illness, or unease whose exact cause is difficult to identify: a general air of malaise | [ in sing. ] : a society afflicted by a deep cultural malaise.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/world/asia/missing-jet-exposes-a-dysfunctional-malaysian-elite.html?action=click&contentCollection=Asia%20Pacific&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article
Cheers Tom L
Shah’s politics : It is forgotten – or not recognized – that in Muslim countries that actually have elections the Sharia crowd generally participate. That’s complete anathema to most of us but this “vote for us and you will never vote again” factor is a standard element of Malaysian political landscape.
In Malaysia this party is called the PAS and at the time of the plane’s disappearance Anwar was in a formal alliance with this Party; a party that wants to turn Malaysia into an Islamic State – and says so openly. The third member of the alliance is openly socialist. So Anwar is hooked up with socialists and Islamists yet gets the star billing as a freedom fighter? Consider also the dovetail with Sharia and socialism. He also hob nobs with bone fide nasty Islamists such as Yousuf Al Qaradawi.
Shah is a relative and strong supporter of Anwar.
In the 70’s, in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and even Afghanistan, women wore dresses, drove cars, danced to the Beatles, wore bathers, and enjoyed their freedoms. What happened?
Malaysia has it’s elements who wish to do the same to that country and Anwar has positioned himself. Conservative political Islam is SE Asia is a rapidly growing presence and as someone involved in politics myself I cannot understand why any devotee of democracy would gravitate to Anwar. Overall it’s a bleak picture in Malaysia.
The PAS has since broken away from Anwar, but core elements of PAS have split from there and rejoined Anwar under another banner. Political chess?
My thrust would be: Malaysia may have a democratic system derived from the British one but the respective components are very different. In short, the opposition are not essentially or fundamentally democratic and regional neighbors are watching closely. If Anwar gets in anything could happen in Malaysia and the first thing you would notice would be a more strident clergy. And when Islam becomes a revolutionizing force(Iran) you can expect trouble. In that instance left wing Uni students took to the streets for a crusty Ayatollah. It’s happening again, so who is Shah really?
“Democracy is dead”
@Matty-Perth,
The 69 year old Anwar has been active in the Malaysian political landscape for his entire adult life, so if he was a genuine political contender he would have secured more power by now.
He was being groomed to take over from Mahathir but they fell in the 1990s and that was the end of that. Without military support (not gonna happen) he has only the quasi democratic electoral process to fall back on. He was also accused of the same tactics he now accuses his former (the reigning) party off, buying votes and electoral corruption.
The ruling party that he once was a rising star in has kept him in and out of prison for almost two decades. It is just a long term tedious argi-bargi.
Basically he is hardly a threat and does not have as much support as people want to make out. Malaysia is unlike Iran, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan, as different as Australia is from the Vatican or fundamental Christian controlled states in the US.
Trying to link Malaysia to those countries is ridiculous.
Malaysian society is juggling pretty well the three main ethnicities and several religions, the balance of power is between Malays controlling government and Chinese controlling economic power. Without the political power and perks they enjoy the Malays might have something to agitate about.
This system work to the extent that the opportunities and day to day lifestyle are comfortable, relaxed for people living there, a very upwardly mobile society, more interested in food court than other courts or politics. The chili fueled endorphins are not radical enough to complain about the heat or wet season storms.
The only way for Anwar to gain control would be from a US military backed junta.
The citizens complain about politics and corruption with the same conviction as other people complain about the weather it is just a case of spin doctoring, on here, to portray the political climate there as something other than it is.
Anwar will be in and out of prison, standing for elections that he will not win, for the rest of his years in opposition.
Don’t forget if you observe Zaharie’s lifestyle and interests via his Youtube channel he was so secular and global, he could be any guy, any nerd from the west.
One thing Anwar he did during his years as Mahathir favorite, as education minister, was to mess up the education system by shifting to pro-malaysian rather than a British system. The main consequence is that younger Malaysian educated in state schools don’t have the same fluent English their parents and grandparents have. The sons of soil policies make sure they still get opportunities.
Zaharie Shah, a nice nerdy guy who got killed by something that happened on the plane, despite his experience to try to mitigate the situation, At the point of hopelessly lost system failure he directed the plane, on auto pilot over water not land.
Looking back over what has been disclosed about the data on his simulator which may or may not have been broken for the year prior to the event. Family say it was.
He had simulations for landings at the known runways in the region, including military runways. If he tried to land at the one in DG. Taken in total context nothing to see there either.
As far as the Anwar Ibrahim and Zaharie Shah family connection, he helped out a bit during elections, volunteering when he could, mostly he was flying for MAS, no time for politics. The political involvement, handing out pamphlets, no different to the how to vote people outside Aussie election centres.
My questions on these threads always returns to this… why the imperative to portray, to hype up and spin this political connection. Zaharie was actually a distant relative of Anwar’s daughter-in-law. Nothing to see there.
Malaysian gouvernement is made up of representatives from all the major ethnic groups, Malay, Chinese and Indian ( by far the most politically active and agitators)
Malaysia, remnant of the commonwealth has two legal systems, British court of Law and a Sharia court of Law operating within One Malaysia society. If you are Malay, Malaysian Chinese or Indian you can attend your legal action in a British system court or if you are Malay opt for attending Sharia court. A long term British expat had his divorce from a Malay woman recognized in both courts. A bit convoluted but somehow it works and mostly things can be resolved in the respective court.
The link to Anwar Ibrahim’s comments relating to MH 370 disappearance.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/anwar-ibrahim-disgusted-by-speculation-over-malaysia-airlines-jet-20140318-hvk63.html
@Crobbie, The final turn to the NW heads in the general direction of Port Blair in the Andaman Islands. Interestingly, this is also where the DSTG’s high-probability route to the north goes, based on BTO data alone. This half of the solution was eliminated due to the BFO data.
@Wasir Roslan,
“Off topic
A lot of tripe has been peddled about super cool Malaysia. As usual superficial observations and assumptions hawked by feel gooders fade away when one cares to scratch the surface:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/world/asia/malaysia-bersih-yellow-t-shirts-ban.html?_r=0
there are lots of more that and of more recent vintage but i guess the above will be sufficient.
Its easy to create a feel good illusion of things when reality barks otherwise as every nation has its own idiosyncrasies, Malaysia included”
Having lived there much of the past decade it has no more or less of an illusion of a free an open society than the US another place I have lived. And mind the US by pole is considered the biggest global threat to world peace and has exactly now much of the world under surveillance.
Malaysia is a comfortable environment in which to live, to comfortable for people to be radical. They are close to the 2020 fully developed status. The difference is seen more in villages than in KL.
Any ban on the yellow t-shirts comes to naught, as… “A lawyer representing the group, New Sin Yew, said that under the edict, shirt wearers could be fined about $1,185. Some people have been briefly detained for wearing the shirts, he said, but he was unaware of anyone being prosecuted or fined.”
That dollar value is unlikely to be correct, in Malaysian Ringgit it will be 1/3 or 1/4 in $ depending on currency exchange.
I would choose Malaysia, as bubbling as it often is, over The US any day of the week. Us makes Malaysian corruption look like amateurs where Dems shafted, by illegal means Clinton’s competition, a woman who breaks national security and gets away with it, or the equally unlikely candidate for GOP.
What usually happens with the demonstrations, most people stay away, too busy in the food courts.
I wonder why the amped up drive to portray Malaysia other than it actually is.
To those commenting about being off topic. On this topic it was Jeff posted the image of Zaharie and crew plus throughout the threads, ongoing spin by others to tar and feather Z as the culprit, based on no real evidence.
All the negative commentary about Z highlights the posts directing people to think he was the culprit, thus closing any other more likely scenario to discussion.
On topic,
On an earlier, previous pages, a post about the degree of moonlight.I posted on another thread about the daylight, being on the wrong side of the plane, if people were actually alive.
At the time of the alleged ditch it was twilight, light, for sometime prior.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/9auphutvmkmjmxm/YFF_animation.mp4?dl=0
@DennisW
Re: Bailey article comments
I am still seeing that people think there is data on the Black Boxes, but some of us feel the circuit breakers were probably pulled to make them non-operational, right? Not sure if we ever find the Black Boxes, but if we do find them, they may not help. That could be reason enough to call off the search, although I’d prefer to find the plane.
I just think the public needs to be told the truth that the Black Boxes could be turned off (assuming that is the case).
@TBill
My own thoughts are the CVR will be blank because is it over-written every two hours. The FDR may simply tell us that the plane was flown to where it was found. I don’t have great hopes for either device telling us much. Passenger cell phones may turn out to be more useful.
@Gloria
Your diarrhea of words, knitted into so many delusions, is baffling, baseless and not supported by fact.
FYI. With more than 50 years of uncontested rule MY faces immense problems. The incestuous made up coalition have managed to win elections through fraudulent tactics and manipulation. The many election irregularities ensured the Barisan Nasional’s victory. Corruption is prevalent.
The MY government’s manner of dealing with opposition leaders speaks for itself. A falling out with sitting leaders comes at a high price. Anwar’s opposition group (PKR) aims to end ethnic policies and advocates that officeholders be selected on the basis of individual ability and achievements. You make it sound like Anwar is just having some fun and filling his time with meaningless political aspirations.
MY is also a disorganized country completely unable to cope with a free and open press (MH370) and being held accountable. This includes the state owned enterprise MA which was notorious for insider dealing, corruption and total lack of transparency.
Someone such as Z, was smart enough to grasp that being vocal about cropped up grievances towards the government would be outright stupid. It is these “quiet, goofy, nerdy” guys that can prove to be the most dangerous. Ticking time-bombs.
Having lived in those contrails for decades I know only too well that suppression forces you to rebel behind closed doors, quietly and secretly.
@JeffWise
I understood that you had banned Matty – Perth, precisely because
his posts continued to degenerate into a smear against Islam.
You allowed him back in, and straight out of the gate,
we have a smear against Islam, and sure enough, a smear against
Islamic countries (Iran being a favourite of his to work into
his posts), and, no surprize, a supposed link between a politician
of Malaysia and an alleged terrorist.
Revelance to MH370? = ZERO. Are you asleep at the tiller?
(And if bannees are coming back in, why not John Florentino, whose
main offence seems to have been posting information about an
Australian aviation journalist – we never got to find out if that
information was based on fact?).
@ Jeff Wise or anyone else
This is the first I’ve heard that the left turn after IGARI was particularly aggressive. What was the turn diameter? Got a link for this? I’m not aware of any radar data whatsoever between the secondary at 17:21:13 and the primary at 17:30:37 so I’m very keen to know how the notion of a chandelle and low groundspeed has come to pass. Is the IG no longer working with this plot? ( http://www.duncansteel.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/VI_radar_Fig1.jpg ) It shows the turn and the mystery point prior to 17:30:37 at 505kt avg GS so I’m very interested to see where you’re getting low groundspeeds.
At 473kts, a 25 degree bank turn of 180 total degrees takes 2.8 min and has a diameter of 14nm. Subtracting 2.8 min from the difference between the two timestamps leaves roughly 6 mins to cover the 45nm “non-turn” portion.
What’s wrong with that?
Apologies. I forgot the wind. Should have calculated 488 TAS going into the turn.
Thats a 2.9 minute turn with a diameter of 15nm.
The Zaharie hypothetical plan: another point about Igari:
1. If you wanted to decrease the risk of the military (Malaysian, but Thai also) taking an interest in an aircraft which is on a course towards population centres surely you would not cease transponder transmission? That would make it look as though you were not civilian, or even if you were, you were attempting concealment.
Concealment from ATC secondary radar surely would not compensate for that?
2. In planning this turn back would it not be better to have the transponder continue, advise ATC of a mild problem, then on returning veer off to the Straits and head away? (You might think of halting transponder operation when heading away, when the military will be less concerned).
3. To me it does look that this turn was not carefully planned or rehearsed:he could not have counted on the reactions realised. Indeed it has a spontaneity.
4. It may well be that some (eg DennisW) would see this another way, ie Zaharie’s intention in going dark was to alert the military, thence alerting the MG. Thus the logic would be that lack of a military reaction would be a possible reason negotiations failed: it took too long to get the MG convinced.
So the above is a bob each way on the Igari turn being either spontaneous or that the plan failed. What I would rule out is that Z would have planned the actual outcome.
Under 4 above I am supposing that the MAF would have no reason to be on any alert and that it would take time to decide how to react then recall personnel, including those for arming and air direction; and that Z would know this.
@DennisW
At that speed I would fear that the ice cubes would take flight from my drink ……
Does anyone know what ADIRU output is during the process of its alignment?
Dennis,
“You do believe he was on the aircraft, right?”
Yes, I believe he was. How does this help to accuse him in wrongdoing?
Matty – Perth,
Welcome back! I missed your level headed contributions.
Buyerninety,
The way I read it, Matty wasn’t banned, but chose self-imposed exile after a somewhat overly stern and undeserved rebuke from our host on his latter posts.
I don’t see any “smearing of Islam” in his post, but an honest attempt at interpreting the realities of the political and cultural situation in Malaysia, drawing parallels to what happened in other secular islamic nations, turned religiously zealous.
Religious zealousy and bigotry are a threat not only in islamic countries. There are plenty of examples in the “christian world” where those traits are becoming influential and starting to impinge on liberties many have come accustomed to and cherish.
I don’t necessarily agree with everything Matty says, but think his points of view are worth considering, when forming my own opinions.
With regards to John F’n Tino, are you serious? He was one fluffed up pompous buff head, who had next to nothing to contribute other than spewing vile at every serious contributor on this and Duncan’s blogs.
His one and only claim of contribution was his overselling of a purported “forensic accoustic analysis” of the last comms from the cockpit. The only basis of his report’s “conclusion” was the speaker’s “ahem”, uttered during that last transmission.
Good on Jeff for eventually banning him. I was surprised how long he lasted…
Ge Rijn,
Re: “I think in case of a hijack it would have been usefull to shutdown the SDU/satcom/IFE to avoid every attempt to communicate from within the cabin to the outside world.”
Switching off IFE and ACARS from the cockpit appears to be sufficient. Or no? Why SDU?
Re: “Then after reaching ‘safe airspace’ it could have been usefull to put the SDU on line again (with the IFE still switched off) to monitor incoming calls.”
>1. Ironically it was the IFE, which triggered a series of communication after the reboot, so that passengers should have been able to send sms or emails after 18:27. But they have not.
>2. What is the ‘safe airspace’, and what does it have to do with the SDU?
>3. Why would someone need to monitor incoming calls?
Re: “It could have confirmed to the hijacker his position was not detected and no one was following him.”
How? The weather radar is a better tool to make sure nobody was following.
Matt Moriarti,
“@ Jeff Wise or anyone else
This is the first I’ve heard that the left turn after IGARI was particularly aggressive. What was the turn diameter? Got a link for this? I’m not aware of any radar data whatsoever between the secondary at 17:21:13 and the primary at 17:30:37 so I’m very keen to know how the notion of a chandelle and low groundspeed has come to pass. Is the IG no longer working with this plot? ( http://www.duncansteel.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/VI_radar_Fig1.jpg ) It shows the turn and the mystery point prior to 17:30:37 at 505kt avg GS so I’m very interested to see where you’re getting low groundspeeds.”
Look at the Lido radar plot and the first FI, and also google Ron Black, two planes theory. You will find some work done on the turn radii at IGARI.
The “impossibly sharp turn” at IGARI has had some treatment in the early days. Me talking about it here got me redacted and nearly banned then. I did have a giggle, when Jeff posted about aggressive and chandelle just now.
The radar graphic in one of the FIs had yellow and white traces overlayed up to IGARI, then white only from there after. The interpretation was that the yellow was a secondary radar trace, white the primary trace (or vice versa).
At the time, I suggested that, for the trace to be genuine, it had to be a near vertical climb (or dive) with a turn to be recorded as a sharp corner in the radar trace.
As it happened, in the later FI, and the DSTO paper the sharp corner was replaced with a smoothed radius 180deg turn back.
To me, the detail in the previously published primary and secondary trace (white and yellow of FI) indicated that it was based on some fine grained data (radar returns at 1/10s are still claimed in the latest FI), and therefore the “sharp turn” has to be taken seriously and must be explained, rather than disappeared by some smoothed graphic in the next FI or final report.
As a continual reader / consumer of this (Crowdsourced) blog:
@Gloria – keep up your valued work as I (or one) enjoy your thoroughly researched and valid insights.
You have already successfully fended-off the sentinel Attack-dog with ease – keep going. Sock-puppets haha!
@Keffertje
Such strong language isn’t necessary. Your description of internal MY, though valid, is one of many.
Z lived a privileged life (as described by others) and was hardly ripe for any sacrifice – yet alone 238 additional poor souls.
Don’t let your dissatisfaction with MY blame Z without (valid) evidence.
@DennisW
I have the greatest respect for your input and value your comment – recently you’re becoming more erratic (and abusive). Remain logical & open minded, please.
@Rob & @Ge Rejin
Please stop the “brain flatulence” around the controlled, guided landing – just because you can see it in your minds eye, doesn’t mean it happened.
Resume, please …..
Have a look at Figures 4.1 and 4.2 of the DSTG “Bayesian Methods” report.
Fig.4.1 was earlier in an ATSB report of june 2014. It shows the turn commencing at a very sharp acute angle, which is only physically possible at near-zero groundspeed and, by implication, a very high vertical speed.
Fig.4.2 shows the groundspeed derived by the DSTG by filtering and smoothing radar data received from the Malaysians: “For the accident flight, primary radar data provided by Malaysia is available from after the loss of communications up until 18:22:12. The radar data contains regular estimates of latitude, longitude and altitude at 10 second intervals from 16:42:27 to 18:01:49.” Fig.4.2 shows a lowest groundspeed of 193 kts.
For comparison, the 1g stall speed of the airplane in that condition is about 170 kt CAS, 304 kt TAS.
Gysbreght,
Gysbreght,
Apparently, iPad emojis don’t post. Here is the old fashioned one:
😉
Could it be that depowering the SDU somehow interfered with the flight-following system on ground? When the SDU was shut down, the operators said MH370 was in Cambodia (at 2:04 and 2:15), which could mean their system was projecting a great circle route to Beijing. After the reboot it appeared to be back en route east of Vietnam (at 2:35).
@Oleksandr
What I read about it the cockpit sat-phone is independent of the IFE-system:
http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Inmarsat_APC_2013_31_Peter_Durrant.pdf
1.You’re right the IFE responded at the 18:25 log-on and no one onboard send some kind of message. To me this is a sign no one in the cabin probably was able anymore to send something. Maybe the hijacker also shut the IFE off after 18:28.
2.The ‘safe airspace’ could be out of Malaysian radar range. He was flying inside Malaysian FIR-territory so he probably did not have to worry to much about Indonesian or Thai military. Putting the SDU back on line would enable him to monitor incoming calls in the cockpit.
3.I think incoming sat-calls would tell the hijacker he was not detected, scrambled and followed. Otherwise there would have been no need to call him via sat-phone IMO. He would have understood that.
As far as I know the weather-radar is scanning only in front of the plane not behind. It won’t be able to see planes following.
@MuOne
This purports to be a forum relating to MH370.
Matty – Perth’s post contained NOTHING relevant to MH370. It did
contain opinions predujical against a Malaysian politician, against
Islam, and against several Islamic countries.
His latter posts you mentioned contained links to anti-Islamic
websites, again, of ZERO relevance to MH370, for which he was duly
warned.
Given the forum operator’s now accedence to such posts, it would
seem READERS IN MALAYSIA and generally persons of the Islamic Faith
can mark this as as the point when this forum became less about
any ‘search for truth’ about MH370, and rather a place where attacks
on the country of Malaysia and attacks on the Islamic Faith, occur
unchallenged by the forum operator and are encouraged as the norm.
Buyerninety,
We have had pages upon pages of discussing Captain Zaharie’s possible malicious or heroic involvement in MH370’s disappearance.
There are the likes of DennisW, who are utterly sure about what “the evidence” of two sim points in the SIO imply, and there are others equally sure about the “there is nothing to see here”.
So, I see Matty’s post as relevant to the question of whether there may be a political/terrorist angle (that’s quite different to saying that I agree there is such an angle), and hence it is rather relevant to M370 in the context of the current discussion.
I welcome any different point of view, which challenges my preconceptions. It is similar to the “crashed in SIO, the roaring forties, so can’t have been a ditch” notion, which discounts the fact that the “roaring” fourties can, and do, present at times as a milk pond.
Your interpretations of Matty’s post as being anti-islamic are way over the top.
@buyerninety, I also don’t share Matty – Perth’s views on Malaysian politics, but I don’t think the way he expressed them merits banning. It’s a fine line I have to walk, between having a big tent and keeping out trollery. Bear with me.
And yes, I do sleep…
@GortoZ
For the record, I never did see a controlled ditching in my mind’s eye. I saw it in the debris recovered to date. If you had followed the discussion properly, you might have given yourself a chance of seeing that for yourself, without me having to draw it to your attention. Te he he.
I also think Gloria is a treasure, sock puppets and all.
Kind regards
Rob
A few posts ago, I mentioned that the MH370 TV documentaries talk about the 1987 crash (in flames in the SIO) of South Africa Air Flight 295. It was a 747 with cargo hold on the passenger deck.
What I left unsaid, is that I am suggesting this could be one explanation for the burnt debris found by Blaine Gibson. I see 747 was the first use of that type of construction. I know this could be wrong upon closer examination, but just putting it as a possibility.
@ Gys
Thx for that. Learn something new every day!
@GortoZ
very amusing post 🙂
@GortoZ Do you write horoscopes as a day job?
@Oleksandr
“Yes, I believe he was. How does this help to accuse him in wrongdoing?”
because he was the only person on the plane capable of pulling stunt like this?! Maybe he was pushed by someone else to do this (although the chance is minimal) however he simply had to be involved this or that way.
What would be the specific qualifications of ZS has to pull a stunt like this ?
@MuOne: data for Mar 8, 2014, 0:00-01:00 UTC show significant wave height ~3-4-metres across the entire set of regions either searched or IG-proposed. So, not a milk pond.
http://oos.soest.hawaii.edu/erddap/griddap/NWW3_Global_Best.htmlTable?Thgt%5B(2014-03-08T00:00:00Z):1:(2014-03-08T01:00:00Z)][(0.0):1:(0.0)][(-38):1:(-27)][(88):1:(100)]
Brock,
I didn’t mean to imply that the SIO was a milk pond at the time.
My point was the general preconception that the roaring fourties are roaring, all the time. Which is not so. It takes proof, such as per the link you provided, to determine there were significant waves at the relevant time.
Similar goes for Zaharie, Anwar and his party and associations. Based on years of MSM reporting, I always thought (my preconception) of Anwar as the victim of unjust state sponsored persecution. While that might still be so, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Anwar and his party are the goodies. That is something, I never considered before, until Matty – Perth’s postings.
@Gloria, the only personal experience I have of Malaysian demonstrations is when we visited KL during the 1998 Commonwealth Games. Certainly none of our local Malaysian friends were brave enough to discuss Anwar’s underground rallies that would pop up in back yards at that time. Too frightened to even discuss.
Also, a great Aussie mate of mine went for a jog, and thought that she was having a severe asthma attack from pollution. It turned out that she had run through a cloud of dispersing tear gas that the baton wielding police used to break up the protest in Merdeka Square! Ha ha, we still laugh at her Aussie naivety! The great irony is that Merdeka means “freedom”.
It is great to hear that everything is awesome now.
@Cofee,
If you want to talk politics in KL, ask a taxi driver, particularly a either a Chinese or Indian driver, they always have a finger on the pulse of what is going on. The Malay drivers are more reserved but will chat about family. I’ve asked about election and they are pretty clear about the power being held by the same party and accepting of the situation if not in agreement with it.
@all
Political landscape in Malaysia
As well as a decade in Malaysia I have lived in China for several years, and spent quite a bit of time in Singapore. These three countries are very different but they all have what is observed as oppressive governments, to various degrees and infringements of humans rights. Malaysia the lesser of the three.
Living in them, day to day, for a regular expat doing a skilled job tells a different story. Political stability and civil control creates relative safety for foreigners in those locations, more than US cities with guns blazing and trigger happy cops.
Expats go about their day to day experience and those with families want safety.
For an expat, the worse thing about China is pollution, weather and the language barrier, huge population, and the extremely poor driving of luxury cars and other vehicles.
Singapore gets boring for an expat as it is like living in a goldfish bowl, the cost of living is high. The weather is horrible unless you are partial to 30 plus degrees C and 80 plus humidity.
Relative to China and Singapore, Malaysia is not quite as safe as Singapore but there is more to do, a much lower cost of living, similar heat and humidity which you get used to. Is not as polluted as China. There is minimal language barrier with most citizens speaking 2 or 3 languages, English being the common one.
Most longterm expats live, work in suburbs not KL city. Anyone jogging through Merdeka needs their head read, would be struck with heat exhaustion, really unpleasantly hot.
Usually the protests disperse by themselves or have the firehoses turned on them. People know there is a protest, it is on popular DJ driven radio announcements, this helps people avoid the traffic congestion and the parade blocking the city.
Kuala Lumpur is very decentralized, the city is mostly for office workers, shop assistants and tourists.
Having visited the Philippines and Thailand with a view to alternative locations for work, I prefer Malaysia. Several expat friends have opted to live there permanently or to retire there.
@Malaysian Malaise,
For radical political upheaval you need more poverty and less chili in the diet, which raises the feel good hormones.
A full belly and pleasant society, stability and opportunity either self made, Chinese and Indian Malaysians or government regulated, Malays, “sons of the soil” is not the foundation for radical change.
Anwar is a career politician, hello ! he is 69 has been both in the ruling party a rising star, fall from grace and then as opposition leader. He’s been there for decades. Why was he not bumped off, because the elite are ensconced in their positions, safe. He has rhetoric as his weapon but not the military behind him as in Thailand or Philippines during their coups and elections.
He’s going nowhere.
A Malaysian academic, member of the Bumiputera class writes that the rules of the society that protect Malays also making them less driven by ambition, thus much more complacent. Second class Chinese and Indians work harder to get ahead, coming from behind.
I reiterate in various ways that the society is unlike other locations where radicalization thrives. In places like Australia there is a displacement of and lack of opportunity for minorities. Young marginalized men without opportunity become the fertile ground for radicalization. Same in other Western countries that have grown to fear Islam, much of which is a cultivar of media and security agencies.
It would be best to allow for various culprits, set Z aside as the perpetrator due to lack of real evidence or make him only one possibility. The more the details of the Hijack are discussed on here, where the digits after decimal points are of primary interest, the more it appears too professional a job for one person to execute.
Guess that being the cantankerous sentinel attack dog I am …..woof…..woof, news items like these wouldn’t matter much:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/singapore-new-zealand-beloved-by-expats-in-hsbc-ranking-chart
Guess I have to understand how expats living in sanitised and thermosed upper class fishbowls have little or no time for real news excepting those involving Hilary or Trump. Not that I am partial to either, being more a libertarian than anything else but it’s surprising that their deeds are humongous mmmm…probably because they are the detestable gringos to everyone the world over 😀
And also life must be pretty hunky dory in little waterless hamlets in Kelantan or in the hovels of Sabah and Sarawak or the poorly connected east coast interiors . And guess incomes must be in staratospheres everywhere so much so that second and even third class citizenry abound.
And we wonder why the Daily Mail, the Australian,the SMH et al are not sued for their pains. Yeah that would do for my CIA day job, so over and out to my personal LA Based fat controller. Time I hit the sack ……
Australian Minister for Transport
Examination of suspected MH370 debris
MEDIA RELEASE
DC123/2016
22 September 2016
Debris recovered from near Sainte Luce on the south-east coast of Madagascar suspected to be from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has not been able to be linked to the missing aircraft.
Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Darren Chester said Blaine Gibson had provided the two items of fibreglass-honeycomb composite debris to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) on 12 September 2016.
“With the agreement of the Government of Malaysia, the ATSB examined the items but found no manufacturing identifiers such as part numbers or serial numbers that provided clues as to the items’ origins,” Mr Chester said.
“At this stage it is not possible to determine whether the debris is from MH370 or indeed even a Boeing 777.
“What is known is that contrary to speculation there is no evidence the item was exposed to heat or fire.
“Further work will be undertaken in an attempt to determine the origin of the items, specifically whether they originated from a Boeing 777 aircraft.
“The search for MH370 is continuing and we remain hopeful the aircraft will be located.”
Ministers from Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China and Australia agreed at a tripartite meeting on 22 July 2016 that the search for MH370 will be suspended on completion of the 120,000 square kilometre high priority search area unless credible new evidence about the specific location of the aircraft emerges.
More detail at debris report 4:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2014/aair/ae-2014-054/
@Ge Rijn, @Oleksandr
The SDU re-logon remains a mystery. It makes sense it was not about a “non-detection” confirmation. Could it be because the hijackers were expecting another call? Or needed to make one themselves? In the theory of a hijacking and on the ground negotiations going on (that failed) it would make sense the hijackers needed to communicate with their cohorts below, at least once.
Information on handheld satellite phone usage on commercial flights is contradictory. Some say it will work, others say it might be difficult. Assuming hijackers planned this well in advance would they not bring their own sat phones? Perhaps they didn’t work and the SDU had to come back on? Is there any data available on handheld satellite phone use during that same timeframe?
@David
It’s a report with a contradicting statement and a suggestion towards manipulation IMO :
‘“What is known is that contrary to speculation there is no evidence the item was exposed to heat or fire.”
The same report states:
“Despite no evidence of overall gross heat damage, two small (<10mm) marks on one side of the larger item and one on the reverse side were identified as damage resulting from localised heating (Figures 2 and 3). A burnt odour emanating from the large item was isolated to these discrete areas."
So there is evidence the item was exposed to heat or fire. Contradicting statements.
The small burned areas still gave a burned odeur. The report suggests this is not quite possible after more then two years in saltwater.
IMO this is impossible.
Those three small burn-marks have to appeared there a relatively short time ago if they still smell burned.
The burn-marks look to me like someone put a small flame on those spots for a certain time like a sigaret-lighter or something like that.
Ge Rijn,
“The burn-marks look to me like someone put a small flame on those spots for a certain time like a sigaret-lighter or something like that.”
I would expect shortcircuit of wires in the proximity, or shortcircuit involving the fuselage itself, could cause sparks, which would result in burnt marks of similar appearance.