Here’s a link to the report broadcast today on Australian 60 Minutes about the search for MH370. Part 1:
Part 2:
Discussion after the jump…
The main thrust of the piece is that an independent air-crash expert, Larry Vance, has looked at photographs of the Réunion flaperon and decided that their relatively intact state, and the lack of debris from inside the aircraft, means that the plane must not have impacted the water at high speed, as would be expected if the plane ran out of fuel as a “ghost ship” and spiralled into the water. He interprets the jagged trailing edge of the flaperon as evidence that it was deployed at the moment of impact and was worn away when it struck the water.
I find it discomfiting when people say that the mystery of MH370 is not mystery at all–that they are absolutely confident they know the answer. Vance undercuts his credibility, I feel, by taking this stance. There is indeed a strong argument to be made that the plane must have been under conscious control to the very end; to me the most compelling is simply that the plane has not been found in the current seabed search zone. However it is less clear that someone attempted a ditching. What the show does not mention is that debris from inside the aircraft has indeed been found, suggesting that the fuselage could not have survived the impact and sunk to the bottom of the ocean intact. Indeed, the program doesn’t mention the other debris at all, with the exception of the Pemba flap, which is the other relatively intact large piece. The fact that most of the debris found so far is rather small is to me indicative of a higher-energy impact. But I have no strong opinion one way or the other; I feel that proper experts must look at the debris close up to determine what forces caused it to come apart.
The program cites the recently revealed flight-sim data from Zaharie’s computer as further evidence that the plane was deliberately piloted to fuel exhaustion and beyond. For the first time, the program showed on screen pages from the confidential Malaysian report. The producers of the show reached out to me as they were putting the program together, and asked me to comment on some of the data they had accumulated. Here are the pages of the document that they showed on-screen:
It’s worth noting that these pages offer a summary of the recovered flight-sim data which are described in greater detail and accuracy elsewhere in the confidential Malaysian documents. Here is a table showing a subset of what the documents contain:
Note that the numbering systems for the two data tables do not match. (Please do not ask me to explain this.) I suggest that for the purposes of discussion, the point saved at Kuala Lumpur International Airport be called point 1; the three points recorded as the flight-sim moved up the Malacca Strait to the Andaman Islands be called 2, 3, and 4; and the points over the southern Indian Ocean with fuel at zero be called points 5 and 6.
In order to understand the fuel load numbers in the second table, I made some calculations based on the fuel loads in a real 777-200ER. I don’t know how closely these match those in the flight simulator Zaharie was using. If anyone can shed light I’d be happy to hear it.
Worth noting, I think, is that the fuel difference between point 4 and point 5 is enough for more than 10 hours of flight under normal cruise conditions. The difference between these points is 3,400 nautical miles, for an average groundspeed of less than 340 knots. This is peculiar. Perhaps the flight-sim fuel burn rate is very inaccurate; perhaps the simulated route between the points was not a great circle, as shown in the second page of the report above, but indirect; perhaps Zaharie was fascinated by the idea of flying slowly; or perhaps points 5 & 6 come from a different simulated flight than 1 through 4. Readers’ thoughts welcome.
Also note that neither the locations nor the headings of points 1-4 lie exactly on a straight line from 1 to 4, which suggest perhaps that the route was hand-flown.
@Nederland that is the most troubling point in all that story. Why would the FBI let it go without intervening. At least setting the record straight. Would it be that they did investigate tampered HDD in Quantico only to be used as a caution saying “nothing sinister”? We have seen coverage citing top US official about this. Was this real or not? Have they become suspicious about that question to the point of adopting a wait and see attitude?
@Nederland
You said;
Re “nothing sinister”
“To my knowledge, the FBI never said anything, these were the word used by Hishammuddin with regard to the FBI report. He, however, cautioned that the police chief was going to make a separate anouncement.”
There was this statement from a “US Official”
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2014/04/no-clues-to-missing-malaysia-airlines-plane-in-captains-flight-simulator
@Nederland
There were so many reports, yet I have found none where the “source” is actually named.
Another example below;
http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/fbi-check-of-mh370-pilots-drives-flight-sim-comes-up-empty
@buyerninety,
I am not sure which “webpage diagra” you are referring to regarding 9M-MRO’s radar track. Others have made overlays of N571 and the Lido Hotel radar track image. These appear to show that the track began following N571 at VAMPI through MEKAR. It is not obvious that a slight right turn was made at MEKAR (actually it should begin slightly before MEKAR if N571 were followed up to NILAM). The ATSB said the last radar contact was 10 NM past MEKAR, but whether or not those last 10 NM were just a continuation of the previous bearing or a turn was made to overfly NILAM is not obvious from the Lido Hotel slide. Part of the problem was that the projector was misaligned with the screen at that briefing, and the left edge of the slide missed the screen, so you really can’t see the last few contacts in the images taken by the audience. The ATSB Figure 2 does not show the turn at MEKAR toward NILAM.
In my route summary tables I have not attempted to accurately represent the curved path around PENANG. I just have points near Penang, at Pulau Perak, and the last one at 18:22:12. Straight lines between those points do not exactly match the ATSB Figure 2 radar track, but that does not mean that I believe a slightly different path is more likely than the ATSB version.
In summary I would say there is no evidence I have seen that 9M-MRO did not fly through both VAMPI and MEKAR. There is also no evidence I am aware of that it actually turned at MEKAR and went to NILAM along N571. It may very well have continued past MEKAR toward ANOKO on the same course, leaving N571 at MEKAR. The 18:25:27 BFO actually fits this straight track better than it does the N571 bearing. Another caution is that some of my old plots use geocentric latitude rather than geodetic latitude, and this can create slight N-S offsets if a mixture of latitudes is plotted together. I have only used geodetic latitudes in my recent plots to avoid this confusion.
The case for the FBI to have expected RMP to acknowledge their(FBI) role in the FS issue is highly plausible given their (FBI) active role in the investigations at the outset:
“Mother-of-three Faizah Khan faces questioning in an investigation supported by the FBI as the search for the plane enters its third week.
American intelligence agents are said to be steering Malaysian officials towards examining the backgrounds of Captain Shah, 53, and his co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid, 27.”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-fbi-3276536
Whether RMP were prepared to accord that acknowledgement is another issue. I think @jeff sourced his info from an FBI insider who might have an inkling of the agency’s vital background role in an investigation fronted by RMP. But again I am just speculating……
This TIME report provides further context to the above:
http://time.com/29991/malaysia-files-deleted-from-missing-pilots-flight-simulator/
Revisit this 4Corners program made after MH 370 went missing. A worthwhile review, some interesting comments about the pilot, about half way into the documentary. Also at 35.20 the Minister for Defense looks at the interviewer in response to questions about why Malaysian military did not follow the plane, he says when she presses him about why shoot it down…he says…”well the Americans would” less than two months later MH 17 was destroyed….was that another warning to Malaysia to say nothing more?
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/05/19/4005244.
@Ge Rijn. The carbon fibre/aluminium corrosion reference a good find thanks. I see things can be done to mitigate corrosion rate (see @Wazir Rosal below) and maybe they have been.
Still if the heavily corroded item alloy was less noble and a sacrificial anode for the rest of the flap metal structure, a possibility raised earlier (too lazy to look up by whom), this may have been too much for inhibiting steps. The corrosion might well have been accelerated markedly by the carbon fibre, also despite these steps. The same might apply to some parts of the flaperon, though immersed for less time.
I note also that there can be composite skin voids, bubbles, cracks etc though again it depends on the prophylactic action in design and material selection. No such defects are obvious on either flap or flaperon.
I hope there has been enough basic research conducted into this for the ATSB etc to be able to draw conclusions as to time in the water but maybe not – and there might be a deferral for this to be done.
@ Wazir Roslan. Thanks but I cannot access your first URL and therefore I cannot verify whether or not the FAA addresses carbon fibre/7075 T6/other alloy combinations. In any case I doubt they would envisage two years in seawater as a criterion.
I think your comment about the improvement of SCC resistance of 7075-T6 with its copper is in comparison to those without, which are described as “most susceptible”, in other words off a low base.
You do not cite references as to these alloys not developing corrosion holes but even if you did these sources would need to cover the possibility of the metal being in contact with a dissimilar and under carbon fibre influence. To me, a hole is a pit a bit deeper. There is deep pitting evident.
For my part I will now await findings, though I fear even that may not be timely or conclusive enough – and of course they have to be to my way of thinking….
@crobbie & jeff.
Shen we take the 60 minutes scanario to be true. It is a plausible explanation for the very limited debris field found. The question of the suicide motive however by the pilot is not answered. Also the controlled landing on the waves is a strange way to do suicide as it is a slow painfu death to drown, or for a pilot to do it himself with additional risks to be taken. Crashing it at high speed should be the easiest way to suicide. This makes the 60 minute story still open ended.
Relation problems of the pilot are mentioned in the weeks before.. but no sympthoms evidencly found for depression consistend with the pilots experience and behavior found.
We know based on facts that the passengers were killed at high altidude shortly after he took the u turn after his last contact. But that certain on board resets/setting changes make a plane malfunction or remote take over of the plane unlikely as a motive to do so is missing here too.
So another scenario could be that a ship was waiting for the plane at this place in the ocean, which could take away critcal debris and the 60 minutes scenario shows a “safe landing on the waves” can easily be done on a quiet night it was by an experienced pilot. The pilot could open the door and step over. At this part of the sea nobody is watching.. This scenario could be valid if there is a motive to do so.. which can be the combined kill of passengers or (theft) of high value cargo of the plane. Malaysian airways is known about transport of non registered gold to china for example.. what the mb370 case shows that at this part of the world it is extremely difficult to find a plane back without a wide debris field. A crime scenario like this could explain authorities behavior for how they did partly.
For me the 60 minutes story helps, but is not conclusive on why this and what happened with the mh370 and remains to be open ended as long as the plane is not found.
I hope authorities and people will not give up untill the plane and answers are found.
Finally this quote indeed affirms FBI involvement:
On Wednesday, the AFP news agency reported that FBI director James Comey said he expected his agency to finish an investigation of computer files related to the MH370 in the next one or two days.
“I have teams working really around the clock to exploit that,” Comey said. “I don’t want to say more about that in an open setting, but I expect it to be done fairly shortly. Within a day or two we will finish that work.”
Comey did not say what results he expected from the FBI’s analysis.
– See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/fbi-check-of-mh370-pilots-drives-flight-sim-comes-up-empty#sthash.WN89uPj2.dpuf
As to why it was cleared before and resurrected now, this should be pertinent:
On Wednesday, the AFP news agency reported that FBI director James Comey said he expected his agency to finish an investigation of computer files related to the MH370 in the next one or two days.
“I have teams working really around the clock to exploit that,” Comey said. “I don’t want to say more about that in an open setting, but I expect it to be done fairly shortly. Within a day or two we will finish that work.”
Comey did not say what results he expected from the FBI’s analysis.
– See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/fbi-check-of-mh370-pilots-drives-flight-sim-comes-up-empty#sthash.WN89uPj2.dpuf
Think it should be Carney not Corney
Sorry this should be pertinent as to why resurrection now:
But one of the sources, a former US law enforcement agent, said this did not mean that the data should be discarded.
“Something on the drive which does not seem important today could be, when viewed with additional data obtained from the background of the individual, his other activity, interviews and data from the flight recorded,” the source told the NYT.
– See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/fbi-check-of-mh370-pilots-drives-flight-sim-comes-up-empty#sthash.WN89uPj2.dpuf
@Gysbreght. The cause of earth shape. Thank you for your cryptic comment. I was going to answer middle age.
@DrBobbyUlich. Thank you for the explanation. Naturally I have no doubt that you and Gysbreght are right and look forward to garnering more from the reference.
Good fortune to you, Victorl and others in finding a hot search candidate, the highest cause right now.
@buyerninety
you requested sources for the theory of Russia highjacking MH370
Here are some excerpts from the article written by Richard Quest at CNN regarding CNN’s coverage of the mystery of MH370.
http://www.flyingmag.com/vanishing-flight-mh370-inside-story-cnns-coverage#page-12
“Our reportage of MH370 was the first full-scale example of the policies put in place by CNN’s new CEO, Jeff Zucker. Jeff had said we should do fewer stories and hit them hard — “own them,” as he put it. MH370 took over our airwaves for weeks. Everyone knew this was an experiment for CNN, trying a different way of covering major stories. Would it work?
…
We were at the center of coverage that attracted widespread comment, sometimes criticism, and often bewilderment about how the world’s No. 1 news network had become “all airplane, all the time.” How long we would keep up the intense level of coverage would depend on a host of factors. CNN always has a pressing interest in aviation stories, but the staying power of such stories largely depends on whether the airplane was flying to or from the U.S., the number of Americans involved, and whether or not the airplane was a U.S.-made Boeing. These factors make a story more relevant to a U.S. audience. At least that is the way I have seen these stories go before. I guessed the story would lead for several days and then drift down the program schedule.
The decisions of one man showed how wrong I could be.
…
As the weeks went by, CNN stayed with the story pretty much nonstop. The critics said it was never-ending, and feelings were starting to grow that it was now too much. Les Abend said, “As the fourth week approached, the backstage rumblings of overkill made its way into my head.” Some senior producers were also uneasy. The word I always got back was the viewers still had this amazing appetite for the story, and we were fully invested in covering it and would continue. But there were grumblings within the newsrooms. Senior editors would roll their eyes as another hour of “The Mystery of MH370” programming got under way. I am told that those at the top were aware of their views. If there was one person who is credited with driving this level of coverage for so long, it is Jeff Zucker. I asked Jeff directly whether we continued the depth of coverage for too long: “No. It’s a tremendous mystery. I get on an airplane all the time. I want to know what happened. There’s a lot of layers to this story, and as every day went by and it wasn’t solved, it became an even greater mystery, and so that is what I think made it a great story.”
…
To those critics who say CNN’s coverage of MH370 came at the expense of other important stories, such as the war and crisis in Ukraine, Jeff robustly answered: “We didn’t ignore the other major news story of the time that was going on, which was Ukraine. We gave more attention to Ukraine than anyone else. We had correspondents on the ground in Ukraine. Had we not been covering the airplane, I don’t think we would have given any more coverage to Ukraine. So I have no regrets.”
Now here are some points to consider:
– Jeff Zucker was solely responsible for the decision by CNN to cover MH370 extensively
– Jeff Zucker was formerly CEO of NBC Universal which holds broadcasting rights for the Olympic Games. He may have known the stakes involved in a potential terrorist attack on Sochi, and it’s impact on the Olympics brand. He may have also been privy to conversations on how mitigate the negative impact of a terrorist attack.
– When Russia invaded Crimea, CNN didn’t reduce the coverage of MH370. This is significant because, it held the MH370 coverage till Crimea was relegated to the backpages.
– Jeff Zucker’s decision to go ALL IN on the coverage of MH370 could not have been made without having the background knowledge of the Olympics security threat, and potential Russian ‘solutions’ to those threats.
@buyerninety
Here’s more proof that Russian officials were under enormous pressure to make Sochi games a success. They guided the doping program of athletes, and they were aided by the Russian secret service.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/13/sports/russia-doping-sochi-olympics-2014.html
“Dr. Rodchenkov said the sports ministry actively guided the doping effort.
…
Russian officials were under enormous pressure ahead of the Games. Sochi was to be a showcase of Russia’s resurgence as a global power, and the entire country was enlisted in the project. Billions of dollars were spent transforming the shabby subtropical resort town into a winter sports paradise. Mr. Putin himself had negotiated Russia’s Olympic bid and was personally involved in much of the planning.
Hanging over everything was Russia’s disastrous sixth-place finish in the medal count at the previous Winter Olympics, in Vancouver, British Columbia. It would not matter if the world was wowed by the opening ceremony, or if the ski lifts ran smoothly.
Dr. Rodchenkov said it was up to him to ensure that Russian athletes won the most medals, preferably gold ones.
…
For Dr. Rodchenkov, preparations for Sochi began in earnest in the fall of 2013. It was around that time, he said, that a man he came to believe was working for the Russian internal intelligence service, the F.S.B., began showing up at the lab in Moscow, inquiring about the bottles used for storing the urine samples tested for banned substances.”
CONCLUSION: Russian officials took extraordinary measures to make the Sochi games a success. The corollary is that they would have taken equally extraordinary measures in case a terrorist incident happened.
@Ron:
“We know based on facts that the passengers were killed at high altidude shortly after”
Hi. I find that likely in a murder-suicide and other sinister scenarios but are there facts for that? Do you have a link or could you explain?. I could have missed that.
Please allow three stray observations:
-I understand that it was Captain Zaharie who used the radio last and there was no unusual intonation. For one with suicide in mind I would not trust I could do that.
Not that I intend experimenting.
-Aaron put up the interesting paper on hypoxia repeated below, which describes individuals aimlessly flicking through pages and doing irrational things maybe even switching things off. It sounds as though there would be no end to this while the conditions persist, those affected being unaware of their delusions and therefore not looking for a fix. They could be in and out of partial rationality. Could one have come partially out of this confusion and set a course south thinking that was best?
Points.
1.Thirty to sixty seconds’ consciousness
2. “80 per cent of pilots with no experience of decompression wait as long as 15 seconds to respond correctly to a loss of cabin pressure”
3.If can take time to get on an oxygen mask.
4.If the aircraft had suffered an explosive decompression and entered a steep climb, would the crew let the controls etc go while putting on their masks?
5.”Mentally there can be a loss of judgement, self-criticism and short-term memory. This can be accompanied by an increase in reaction time and a kind of mental “tunnel vision””……”Simple tasks become extraordinarily difficult and performance fails.”
6.”Despite the captain’s immediate directions, it took the flying pilot some time to don oxygen equipment and initiate descent. He then had difficulty remembering the emergency descent procedure. The non-flying pilot made several radio calls without response, before others realised she had not replaced her headset after donning her smoke mask. The flight engineer became fixated with the uncorrectable pressurization problem….” ….”Another attempted to grab a walkaround oxygen bottle but became confused and remembers searching for a toolbox key for a ratchet to unfasten the wall bracket.”
-The Malaysian police say they did not provide the report. If so, what was the motivation of the one who did, obviously with access to it? Whistleblower, really? So far it has added little to the case to answer.
http://www.theairlinepilots.com/forumarchive/aeromedical/decompressionandhypoxia.php
@all
I came across this news about the Captains unusual behavior on the day before he left to go to the airport..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FkyRuicuLM
Was this ever reported in the main stream media..or was this another bit of info that Malaysian government wanted to hide?
@David
Given the new evidence that has surfaced.. I was curious to know how long it would take for passengers & crew to lose conciseness at a certain altitude..As it has been reported bu Malaysian military radar that MH370 flew as high 45000ft shortly after it lost contact with ATC..
I have question if the oxygen by pass was shut off..How long is the oxygen supply to the masks?
I heard it’s no more than a few mins for the passengers mask..Is that true?
@Aaron. Not off the top of my head Aaron. Someone else might. Otherwise I will look it up.
@David
It is my impression that with hypoxia pretty much anything is possible. Except perhaps that the kondition lasts for a very long time and is accompanied by very daring flying and proactive initiatives. But who knows if the circumstances are the right ones. And the pilot/s concerned the right one/s. Delusion, paranoia, mix-up of reality and imagination (!), conspiracy therories, and passivity. Shah was an exceptional character but had possibly been under hard physical and mental stress for a long time.
I believe that scenario started to meet some disbelief a while back as it seemed to be contradicted by events that suggested premeditation, a presence by a fully conscious person, as the ditching theory, and reboots. But others would know better. I wouldn’t rule it out, but I am hardly completely on top of things. It would in any event need some more extraordinary events early on.
That would perhaps be the most horrific scenario of all, in terms of human frailty.and vulnerability.
@Victor: you said: “If you want to believe that these explanations are inadequate and this is proof that the coordinates are not related, that is your option.”
I don’t “want” to “believe” your reasons are inadequate. Indeed, I would be very HAPPY to see the hard evidence supporting your reasons. Which is why I requested it, to replace “belief” with knowledge.
Yes, I consider “points are unrelated” to be the null hypothesis: if you want to knock this hypothesis off the block, you need to bring hard evidence.
But I don’t set this hypothesis above “points are related” because of your four reasons – or what I “want to believe” about them. No matter how weak your arguments, those sim points might still be related, due to reason #5, which neither of us has yet contemplated. Or perhaps one of your reasons will turn out to be correct even if you never offer a shred of supporting evidence.
The ACTUAL reasons “points unrelated” gets null hypothesis status in my book were clearly listed in my last post to you. It was the list that started with the FBI’s “nothing sinister” conclusion, and ended with the presumption of innocence.
@Aaron
Thanks for the video.
I didn’t know he drove his wife to the airport.
One wonders ….
@Ron
“At this part of the sea nobody is watching..”
They wouldn’t know where satelittes and military radars (jorn) had their “eyes”, and counting for all the ships and transports in this area.
@Aaron
That news report you linked above, media speculation, the lowest kind of tabloid journalism and hearsay.
Malaysians at the pilots level of education and comfortable lifestyle are very chilled out, relaxed. They have a good life and contrary to speculation about his supposed affair, he was muslim and could have more than one wife, his simulator had been broken for some time and he was not attending political events, his family related this information to him. The media, Australian Govt, FBI are wanting to pin this on someone, being inside the plane, to distract from other possible culprits, remote takeover and murder of all on board. In the first instance they tried to pin it on the copilot with the girls in the cabin then the pilot himself. Then moved away from this because his associates, his family did not support this hearsay, see 4 corners report. Now with the dimming of the event in people’s minds the above groups are flogging this line of responsibility because every “expert” seems to agree only human intervention could have produced the flight details as we know them. The pilot is another (dead) patsy in a long line of FBI patsies like Lee Harvey Oswald.
outside Australia, use this link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wht8irZHiII
Inside this will work for the same report by 4 Corners.
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2014/05/19/4005244.
@Johan
You’re welcome..
As I said the Malaysian investigation into the pilots activity’s reported know unusual activity..Well this certainly contradicts..
In regards to his wife..It said he dropped her off on the way to the airport…
Questions is what does she know.. Apparently she has gone into to hiding….
I really for sorry for the family’s who lost their loved ones.. As this has been a blatant cover up from the beginning..
In my opinion the reason.. Malaysian government did not want to admit to the world that one of their own pilots could commit such a heinous act.So they covered the whole thing up..
I once thought there was something more to the disappearance.In my mind now there is not..
On occasion, what is NOT said can be more insightful than what has been said. What other routes were on the simulator; was there a route that mapped to match other possible scenarios? Would it change your POV if you knew ALL simulated routes?
@Aaron
They could not have covered it up if they tried. They have let foreign institutions inside to help solve the mystery and they to decided to hide what needs to be hidden from the public. Something much more than an ordinary accudent happened which baffled everyone involved. I am saying it right from my guts, we are dealing with the supernatural.
@ROB
I’ve had another thought for your glide theory. Looking at the red route from the simulator it clears well south of Australia’s main shipping lanes but the yellow inmarsat track barely clears those lanes. If the plane was trying to hide it’s debris could that be why it glided down at the end? Because it was marginal on fuel to clear the busy shipping lanes and couldn’t risk leaving a big debris field or landing where it might be discovered it glided a bit further to get everything it could out of the fuel range.
@Gloria
I have watched the four corners documentary.
Let just make a few points.
1 would you expect a family member to say anything different? Of course not especially to a foreign media. They’ll speak highly of that person.
2 I looked deeply into the remote hijacking scenario/ free scale semi conductor link.
Let me say conspiracy theorists love this one to a point they’ll ignore what is the truth.
Fact is none of the 4 patent holders were NOT on the manifest.And they are NOT patent owners. They are stated as the inventors. Which does NOT entitle them to that patent.
Here’s a link if you want to read on thathttp://www.snopes.com/politics/conspiracy/malaysiapatent.asp
Finally you say that news agency is nothing more than tabloid trash? Well what news/ media is not to a degree.
@Trond
I disagree. In the early stages of search and rescue the Malaysian government withheld vital information it was only till later that other country’s involved in the search were made aware of certain things.Not disclosed to the public.
This will be my last post as this site has become for most a wild conspiracy site.
@Aaron if his wife could drive, perhaps she could have brought the car back or needed to use it afterwards.
@Craig, Great question. I think it’s absolutely vital for the rest of the information to be released to the public. It’s already been leaked out and is in the hands of independent researchers and journalists, so I think it’s a matter of time.
@Aaron
In the beginning they also let out too much which turned out to be untrue. So they had to be more strict and filter what was known to be certain facts to not confuse everybody and in respect for the NOK. They had nothing to hide and didnt try to hide except what was considered supernatural.
@CliffG, Excellent point. Those who dismiss theories that involve conspiracies as delusional “conspiracy theories” overlook the important fact that conspiracies are real and exist — particularly in a country run by a former KGB operative. As described in the NYTimes article, the doping conspiracy was jaw-droppingly sophisticated and compeletely flummoxed officials charged with stopping it. Add it to a pile that includes the Moscow apartment bombings, the “little green men” of Crimea, the MH17 coverup, etc etc.
@CliffG
As Jeff wants to blame Russia for everything, maybe Russia even sabotaged for the Norwegian skiiers. It was the only nation (with millions spent) that had trouble with their lubricants, and hence lost a lot of medals, even gold medals in branches they dominate and was big favorites to win. Norway has more gold, silver, bronze and total medals than any other nation on the all-time medal table, with their 5M population.
@Robster
Yes possibly, you are right, but it’s a vexed question. I’m still not entirely satisfied in my own mind about the reason for performing an extended glide, other than to go as far into the SIO as possible.
Until the flaperon turned up, I hadn’t been able to decide how he had planned to hide the wreckage. It was obvious to me that Z had carefully planned the disappearance, so how could he make sure no one would spot the wreckage? The flaperon provided the answer; sinking the plane in one piece, after making a controlled ditching.
I don’t know many ships were in the area at the time, or how busy it gets in that area. I think he probably wanted to put as much distance as possible between his position at 00:19 and the ditching site, to make it as difficult as possible to find the wreck site.
But I have to be honest and say I’m not 100% confident about it.
The only thing I am totally confident about is that Z stole the plane, flew it down to S37.6, E89 (or thereabouts) and then hid it.
@jeff
during 2+ years here I was happy that all journalists are not so stupid as it seems for example in our local tv news, where guys are splitted for may be 50:50 in this area… ok; sure, conspiracies are posible; one of them I created myself and which was driving my emotions later was that Captain (acting only as executive of someone others will) told people in advance that they really need to power-off ALL electronic devices this time and later in night took’em all on to surprising journey over FIRs and over China and Kazachstan (knowing whats going on since start) in some “Tornado IDS”-like flight under radars shadows and landed somewhere in Russia and that they have it filmed as movie and it will be used to outlaugh/force Russians trying to anex Criema and Ukraine… but then something changed about my hate level and I realized how STUPID is such coldwar-mindset approach, that its not the US we know and like nor UK, that we are not so stupid to force this kind of pressure on somebody alone and under pressure already… So gradually after eliminating everything possible and impossible, it remains only possibility that everybody knows about what happened in fact and the real purpose is his search itself (search about whats REALLY going on at Ukraine, for example, and that the world IS really changing somehow, or rearranging towards “war with hate” and all the UN SDG agenda ahead) and that it is in fact broadcasted in some kind of encoded way through emotions and music and lyrics and movies and slowly building the emotions in people too… to not hate the enemy; except the ISIL/Daesh/Scientology/Neonazi and such stuff, of course; thats my conspiracy for you, which you already have since 6/2014 too. Just after something like this flashed in my mind, in the hot brainstorming point, I collapsed and ended on neurologic intensive care, first time (and last time, I hope) for a week … I also had some fear then if somebody goes after me or not, all the agencies, because I saw something not for public… ehm; for a while, then I forgot and forcefully dont want fear anymore anybody and anything; I perfectly know that I went through few hours of interesting psychosis episode (not experienced by something as LSD or so, but self-induced) inducted by too much brainstorming while watching music clips and listening analyzing lyrics; lot of coincidenceds for sure, but nice and till now, unforgetable; and it changed my mind, for sure; as I started to search for more deeper details about the “enemy” to know him more… and realized that there IS NOT any enemy in the current #1 star, the Russia …. so, either your or theirs agencies probably washed my mind through this?? may be, but its crazy and I am not, really, just now; sad is that in April,5 2015 I experienced tragic event in family; and to some extent cant believe still too, as some ppl of this case, so on board with them in fact forever
PS: the case about Russian state supported doping is the same weird as the MH370 case; I am sure nobody will enjoy the competition without the russian competitors – whole case expects that they are all beasts from bush or so… and without brains; nonsense, you know
be nice
-falken
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPvnJG_yGhM
@ROB thanks that’s interesting, myself I don’t have a particular theory just a list of what’s possible…you know Sherlock Holmes style. A lot points to the pilots however with the recent Egypt air crash it looks like it’s possible for something to happen and the pilots not report it to air traffic control. Two possibilities that exonerate the pilots but still fit the deliberate action you describe could be.
1. Biological outbreak on the plane, the plane turns back to land but then before getting to penang the seriousness of it become apparent. Best option is to avoid all land masses and ditch it as far away as possible.
2. Stow a ways in the cargo, black ops style…a bit like the movies but if you have 2 cargos and you want to pinch one using the other then it’s a long shot but plausible.
What do you think? Also just exploring other options could it be the co pilo?
A quick question to everyone. Is it possible to ditch on auto pilot? Or does it have to be pilot controlled? It’s been bugging me for a while.
@Robster,
If you go back to page 3 read my post about the different options of a controlled glide/ditch under Autopilot/MCP (mode control panel)
The one problem with this is once the plane is fuel exhausted, you’d need someone at the controls to control the pitch/roll of the plane. hydraulics generators etc etc all are powered from the engines…Except the APU and the ram JET..
Question I have is did the Captain control and time the descent under normal power..Got the plane to an altitude of about 2000ft set the autopilot/MCP on a slow speed decent as if you were on an approach to land..With approx 10-15min fuel remaining..Then cut of the Oxygen to the flight deck..
Problem with my hypothesis is you wouldn’t suffer hypoxia at that altitude.. So a controlled glide to the end is the most liekly outcome.
@aaron, appologies I try to read all posts to avoid duplicating work but theres a lot of good stuff on here. what about a pre programmed glide and ditch? Is that possible hypothetically?
Dear experts. For the flaperon to be lowered so it could shear off on impact with the ocean did it mean the other flaps on the wing also had to be lowered? Would these also shear off on impact if the case? or are the 2 parts independent? What benefit only lowering the flaperons if these were the only ones lowered? If the other flaps were also lowered, and sheared off, would they float or sink? Would they be big enough to also more readily be found if floating and that size?
Last Q – is there any way the plane could be where the simulator makes it crash given the satellite ping information – or is it just way off?
Thankyou for any answers as this has puzzled me.
@robster
Nice to see you exploring all possible scenarios. There are many possible scenarios, but few probable ones. I’m sticking with the one I outlined earlier.
People have been talking about Shah’s behavior before the flight, and if he had given away any signs of what he was about to do. Personally, I think his body language was quite interesting, as he checked-in that evening.
Look again at the video of him being patted down by the security guy. Note the way he put his arms down and walked over toward the desk. To me he appeared to display a subtle but perceptible degree of anger or aggression, directed at those around him, in the exaggerated way he dropped his arms back to the body. He would have known of course, that those images would be closely studied after the event.
You might say I’m imagining things, in the light of what happened afterwards, but I’m not so sure.
@AW so what is up dude? don’t know who you are or where ya’ll come from, but you are a fraudster, you deleted your twitter account after your little encounter with another twitter account. You are a stalker and a fraudster and I’m calling you out buddy. Either put up or shut up.
@JW this guy is not who he is says he is FYI…just a warning to people here
@robster
It is possible under that scenario. But as I said you have to the plane under power of the engines. Immarsat data suggest engines ran out of fuel though.
If I get time I’ll do a video of a programmed ditch on my flight sim using boeing 737 and post it.
@Rob
Yes I’ve have the same impression of the Captain on the security footage at the gate.I get more of an intense person whose mind focused on something different than just another flight. As if you see how the co pilot acts. Get from him a more of an relaxed just another flight to perform.
@Jeff Wise @others
Can you tell me why the first table is saying ‘no data’ for point 2 and the second table is showing all the data for point 2 the same as the other points?
Further table 2 shows the center tank was 15% and main wing tanks where 100%.
I see then till point 4 it only flew on its center tank fuel and used up till point 4 ~half of this 15%.
Is this normal practis to first use the centertank fuel?
And also to take off with main wingtanks full and centertank only 15%?
And can speeds and fuel consumption be deduced from those fuel and altitude data till point 4 (and after)?
@Trond:
Yeah, nice try that one! Blame your OG skiing on a Russian conspiracy. I believe everyone wanted Norway to finally fail in skiing.
Isn’t it “ski-wax” by the way? You will have had a hard time at the Olympics if you mixed those two up. (big smile)
@ir1907
Hi ir1907, I found it. It was Aaron who provided us with the Meteosat link, as per copied below.
SW Quadrant. It is the time lapse images that are the most interesting, imo, as they graphically show the progression of the sunrise terminator across the area. Let the images run for a while, to get your bearings.
Regards, Rob
“Aaron
Posted July 18, 2016 at 10:05 AM
Here’s a link to historical weather patterns for indian ocean the day mh370 went missing.http://www.weathergraphics.com/malaysia/iozooms.shtml“
On the accuracy of the fuel model it may be relevant to observe that the data package product sheet claims the performance data to be accurate within 5%. That data package is for B777-200LR. The LR version differs from the MH370 ER version by having wingtip extensions of 12.8 ft (3.90 m) and GE90 engines wheras MH370 had RR Trent engines.
Is that a fact retrieved from Zaharie’s HDD’s? If yes, I would be interested in more data from the simulator’s FMC. Did you notice that the “red line” track enters the JAKARTA FIR near waypoint SELSU at N1°E92°.
In the following table I have calculated a few flight parameters from table above “showing a subset of what the documents contain”. Noteworthy are the speeds of M.82 at Point No.3, and 198 and 185 kt CAS (IAS) at Points 4 and 5, respectively. The latter speeds are close to the minimum maneuver speed, which is probably the speed at which the airplane would start to descend under autopilot control after an engine failure occurs above the single-engine ceiling. It is strange that the pitch angle in the table does not account for the angle of attack (AoA), which should be between 2 and 3 degrees at cruise speed, and probably greater than 5 degrees at minimum maneuver speed.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4zgqgpgakyt7igh/Z_SimData.pdf?dl=0
@Aaron
Agree, Fariq, the co-pilot looked relaxed. The pilot didn’t.
@Gysbreght, Great information! To clarify, the idea that the plane was flying to McMurdo is, to the best of my knowledge, based solely on the fact that a great circle route connecting point 4 to point 5 (using my numbering system) ultimately intersects McMurdo. A powerful counterargument against this idea is that while a fully fueled 777-200LR could make the trip, this one didn’t have enough fuel to make it. How can a destination be a place you don’t intend to reach?
Given your calculated speeds and fuel values, I think there is ample grounds to question whether the final two points (remote Indian Ocean) belong to the same flight as the first four (Malacca Strait). It is even more questionable to connect them via a simple great-circle line as shown in the police report diagram.
@ROB
Have you given any more thought about how to reconcile the location of the debris finds (and the locations where debris has not been found) with your model?