In a posting to a section of its website called “Correcting the record,” the Australian Transport Safety Board today confirmed that the FBI found data on MH370 captain Zaharie Shah’s flight simulator hard drives indicating that Zaharie had practiced a one-way flight into the southern Indian Ocean, as I wrote in a story for New York magazine on Friday. Entitled “False and inaccurate media report on the search for MH370,” the post concerns several claims by Australian pilot Byron Bailey in The Australian, including Bailey’s interpretation of the flight-sim data:
Mr Bailey also claims that FBI data from MH370 captain’s home simulator shows that the captain plotted a course to the southern Indian Ocean and that it was a deliberate planned murder/suicide. There is no evidence to support this claim. As Infrastructure and Transport Minister Darren Chester said in a statement, the simulator information shows only the possibility of planning. It does not reveal what happened on the night of its disappearance nor where the aircraft is located. While the FBI data provides a piece of information, the best available evidence of the aircraft’s location is based on what we know from the last satellite communications with the aircraft. This is indeed the consensus of international satellite and aircraft specialists.
While ostensibly rebutting Bailey’s claims, the ATSB tacitly acknowledges the fact that the flight-sim data was in fact found by the FBI.
@buyerninety
As far as I know it was not found in a calcite cave where indeed very calcium rich dripping water can occure.
Lying among coral IMO wonn’t hardly affect the structure with extra calcium.
It probably/maybe affects the structure by its sharpness damaging/aging its surface and structure by waves pounding it on the coral.
IMO it’s quite reasonable to assume the piece drifted a very long time in the ocean collecting a lot of barnacles as did most other pieces with the visible ring-like calcium attachments left behind after the barnacles went off (Mosselbay piece is a good example).
I still suspect those barnacles played a role in the damage/corrosion visible on that hinge in combination with the salt water.
But I cann’t prove it offcourse.
@Aaron
@All
Aaron, you said “I don’t by into the pilot glided the plane on a slow descent either. If he is responsible and I say with a big IF.. Why would he do that..Wanted to see the sun rise for last time??? Doesn’t make sense to me..”
Aaron, it makes no sense to you, however,it makes perfect sense to me. The evidence that he actually did glide, or descend under power, to a ditching is provided by the RH flaperon plus 2 of its leading edge seal panels, the RH outboard flap segment, the RH outboard flap inboard hinge fairing. these few items show conclusively (to me at any rate) that the aircraft ditched under control, as opposed to crashed out of control.
As you noted, the plane arrived in the terminal area shortly after sunrise, after a 7.5 hour flight. Hardly a coincidence I would have thought, especially given the nature of the debris. I dare to suggest that its probably a given that the pilot would want to have sight of the water surface if he was intending to ditch. And I would also suggest that he planned to ditch to minimize the amount of floating debris. Hence no lifejackets or other items from inside the plane, apart from piece of panel that came from just inside door R1, and possibly the IFE seat bezel.
I get the distinct impression, from correspondences with the ATSB, that they are currently split into two internal camps. One camp favouring the “no control inputs at the end” scenario, the other camp favouring the extended pilot-controlled glide scenario. The (in my view) politically favoured “no control at the end” scenario appears to have come out on top. No surprise there, as the Malaysian authorities are calling the shots.
@ROB
Your deep SIO scenario is contradicted by the drift studies which you refuse to acknowledge. How the plane entered the water is not relevant when you are several thousand kilometers in error relative to where the plane ran out of fuel.
We have to agree where fuel exhaustion occurred, and then worry about what actions, if any, were taken at that time. You are worried about the wrong problem at the moment.
@Ge Rijn
Apparently you did not bother to read any of that post, here is
the rest of it;
“Paul Smithson June 25, 2016 at 5:00 AM, said;
“Found in a “cave” (could mean overhang of eroded coral rag –
common in this area). Thought by the fishmermen who found it to
have been there for some time on account of the corrosion they
observed”
‘overhang of eroded coral rag’ suggests the flap may not have
been visible to people on the land looking along or outwards to
the sea, but may have been visible to fisherman on the sea
looking shorewards – hence reason why it was not discovered
previously (in addition to the areas remoteness & lack of
population).”
@Dennis
You said “A planned landing is still my working hypothesis, but suicide absolutely cannot be ruled out on the basis of any information we have. The simulator data has greatly simplified the menu of possibilities. I don’t understand why other people are failing to grasp that”
Funny Shit, indeed. Absolutely no doubt about it, Z committed suicide. He is the prime candidate, the obvious candidate. Aged 53, near the end of his working life as a Captain. A politically active “do gooder” who took stock and concluded he was getting nowhere. The ruling dynasty were resolutely holding on to power in Malaysia. He stopped using Facebook, and had a clear diary after March 8th 2014. I also note from FI that he had a paragliding accident in 2007 which fractured his 2nd lumbar vertebra, requiring surgery. He took painkillers irregularly, to control the pain. He obviously decided on balance that he had more to gain by committing this atrocious political act, than to live out his days as a responsible citizen. A truly horrifying thought.
Dennis,
I think people are right to be cautious until we have more information about the way FSX operates, and how the data was originally filed and later extracted from the drives.
– Under what circumstances and in what format does FSX write route data to a hard drive? Are these auto save points or manual save points? Would we expect any other files to be written for routes flown? How are points deleted?
– Are the coordinates definitively from a single route or could they be randomly selected from a host of saved points? How can we tell which points belong together? Are there dates associated with them? Were they aggregated in a particular folder or file?
How many other points were present, in particular in the SIO? What other routes are present for context? What possible reason could there be for withholding one point?
– What tools/methods were used to analyse the disc for deleted files? How is deleted data organised on the disc? Would data written at the same time be in contiguous tracks? Can the file structure be compared with non-deleted files?
The provenance of this data is far more murky than the sat data for example. Hopefully the report in question has enough detail to satisfy some of these concerns, and more FSX experts are able to comment.
If the data checks out and really does represent a sim route flown a month prior to mh370 disappearance, up the Malacca Strait with sharp left dogleg and a fuel exhausted termination in the SIO, then I agree things look pretty bad for Zaharie. And I say this as someone who has a hard time believing he would commit suicide and mass murder based on available evidence of his background and character. But I think we are still some way from this conclusion.
@Brock McEwen
There must different visions on this. Duncan Steel used the Adrift-model in the following study which you know offcourse, including the Mosselbay-piece and it fitted ~30S best:
http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/2652
I assume Duncan Steel is not talking nonsence here.
Other forward-drift studies (starting on the 7th arc) also show particles or buoys reaching the South African coast in even shorter time. The Deltares study shows particles landing on Madagaskar as soon as october 2014 and in Tanzania as soon as december 2014 starting at ~25S on the 7th arc. By the time the flaperon was found a lot of particles had allready landed all across the African shore from Kenia to Mozambique and several of them were near the Mosselbay area too end of july 2015.
I wonder why you seem to refuse to consider all this forward drift studies.
@ROB
Yes, like I said. Suicide cannot be ruled out.
Nor can the fruit studies. My going in position is to look at all the evidence and avoid cherry picking.
Not sure about your conclusions relative to a 53 year old’s perception of his status in life. He was on the brink of retirement which most people look forward to. The Facebook and diary anecdotes would also apply if he were planning a major political crime.
@M Pat
Thoughtful post. I agree with you completely.
@Ge Rijn
Your fascination with “forward drift studies” shows your general lack of experience in problem solving. There actually is a formal theory of problem solving that you would benefit from exploring.
Forward drift studies are fine, and they are convenient. I have no problem with them in general. What they do risk, however, is corrupting the results by picking where the places where the debris may have originated. Reverse studies do not have this bias. The debris goes where the model allows it to go. The bias in the forward studies is often referred to as an “over constrained” bias. You are basically eliminating possibilities by virtue of your bias in selecting the possible starting points.
Mature problem solvers are aware of this, and try to design models which avoid this bias. The Italian study falls right into this trap. It has a number of other problems as well.
@ROB
“fruit” above is “drift”. Spell checkers with substitution drive me nuts.
Re pitting corrosion this is exactly what you would expect of a less-noble metal immersed in salt water close to a more noble one. You only need to look at what happens to a bronze propellor within a period of as little as 18 months in close proximity to stainless steel (or indeed graphite) if a “sacrificial anode” is not fitted. Most of the anode is gone within two years. Remember than anode/cathode stuff from chemistry classes? Example of extensive galvanic corrosion within <20 months here. http://www.qualitymarineservices.net/images/Galvanic%20Corrosion%2018-24%20months.jpg
From the photo, it appears that we do have dissimilar metals right next to each other: the bush and the remains of the drive arm on the one hand, and the [presumed] alloy bracket on the other.
I very much doubt if that bracket is titanium – one of the most marine corrosion-resistant metals (which, apart from staying very sharp is why more expensive dive knives are made out of it). http://www.azom.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=1336
As regards puncture marks, anyone familiar with coral rock in inter-tidal areas will recognise that it often features miriad *very* sharp pinnacles and edges that could certainly cause this sort of damage, even with only moderate wave action.
I my view, the condition of these debris items is entirely consistent with corrosion during extended immersion and coming ashore on rocky shores – not necessary to invoke more exotic explanations like shrapnel or disintegrating turbine blades.
@Ge Rijn: Richard Godfrey’s work (posted to Duncan Steel’s site) made same two decisions Italian study made.
In my opinion, they are both poor decisions. Even if you still trust the ISAT data, the full IO test adds critical context. And focusing on the worst debris fits adds critical robustness.
I don’t blame Richard for stopping at 20 manual downloads of the Adrift data. 750 took a lot of stamina.
DennisW
“…My going in position is to look at all the evidence and avoid cherry picking…”
Mine too. However, the only evidence I trust is the secondary radar plot to IGARI, provided by the Malaysian civil radar station. To my mind all the so called evidence produced from that time onwards could easily have been manufactured as a cover operation by the security services (5+1 EYYES), in collusion with parts of the Malaysian Government.
All the so-called evidence is designed to push the news media and general public into accepting the following story…
The pilot of MH370 hijacked the plane at IGARI and, after using a Westerly radar avoiding route, turned Southwards and crash landed in the SIO as the planes fuel became exhausted. The suicide of the pilot, after the massacre of the 238 innocent passengers, is typical of world-wide actions by Muslim terrorists.
I’d love to find some real evidence that I can believe to be untampered with, but so far nadda. Exceptional and unlikely stories require exceptional proof.
@Dennis
Drift studies are strictly for the birds.
Then there’s the real world. Most people are too knackered and world weary to enjoy the few short years of freedom (supposed) at the end of their lives. As Philip Larkin said In his poem called Money ” you cant put off being young until you retire”
@ROB
You are guilty of cherry picking as charged. You may not like the drift studies for obvious reasons, but they cannot be disregarded if you are to be taken seriously.
Larkin was an interesting character – very British. I will leave it at that.
@Dennis
When you mentioned “fruit studies” I thought you were talking about the mangosteens!
I took you literally, you see. I’m glad it turned out to be the spell checker, stopped me making an unnecessary journey down the fruit aisle.
@DennisW
No shoot down. Funny shit 😀 😀
@Rob
Yeah for a moment there, I thought the same about “fruit studies” . Had to stop myself in midair before I could hit the keyboards 😀
Anyway, your ditching theory seems plausible enough now, but in my book, only in relation to a pilot being compelled to attempt a forced ditch somewhat ala KAL 007 over the Sea of Java right after CI shortly after his craft was hit by a projectile fired by the air Defense forces of a country he was not supposed to trespass into at that unearthly hour .
See in one fell swoop, I satisfy you, me and @DennisW 😀
Seriously though @ALSM ( trust an American to do just that!) seems to have clinched the argument with his pilotless high impact theory, given this:
http://perfscience.com/content/2144491-mh370-was-no-one-s-control-during-last-minutes-atsb-s-new-chief
But then again, I wouldn’t put it beyond another American @jeff wise to surprise us with something new once more 😀
A more exotic version of the spoof, @Jeff, by any chance?
Whatever, hope @ALSM is still following this and nice to see @oleksandr albeit momentarily though.
@Boris
One can certainly adopt your view. I think little progress can be made with that approach, however.
I do trust Inmarsat and the FBI. So far there has been no revelations to implicate them in anything suspicious. I do have your reservations relative to the search participants, however. Withholding of the simulator data I regard as a gross violation of public trust, and it makes me wonder what else is being arbitrarily withheld. Basically, i have lost any trust I might have had relative to the Aussies and Malaysia.
@Wazir, From Time magazine today (http://time.com/4428091/mh370-captains-simulator-had-indian-ocean-route/)
@boris – I am agreement with you that the data after IGARI has been manufactured to fit the SIO narrative.
@Wazir
Your link to the pilotless dive scenario has nothing new in it. It relies on the validity of the 00:19 BFO value which is highly suspect, and in Inmarsat’s view, unreliable. We have plowed this ground over and over again. It was chosen by the ATSB in order to limit what would otherwise be an impractically large search area. We all now know the ASTB cannot be taken at face value.
You are still beating on the dead horse, JORN, and seriously considering shoot down theories. You are drifting into indefensible positions. I am no longer taking your posts seriously or responding to them.
DennisW
“…I do trust Inmarsat and the FBI…”
Not sure about Inmarsat, there are a few red flags regarding their doing a lot of work with UK and USA governments and their military in the area of SIGINT and MILCOM. The bios of some of their board members could indicate they are from the same background.
The FBI, like MI5, is ultimately subservient to other secret service organisations regarding foreign policy issues. I wouldn’t trust any evidence they produce regarding the MH370 investigation.
After two years I don’t think we are much further forward in understanding what happened to MH370. From day one we have had conflicting stories, wild theories, false alarms – exactly what one would expect of a well organised disinformation operation. If we keep examining the detail, perhaps finding oddities and inconstancies in the official story, we will maybe get a clue as to what went on?
@Rob
Ouch….I seem to recall you saying you are in your 40’s. if this is what you think of life in your 50’s, you should stop spending so much time on a blog and get on with your life, not far to go.
@Boris
I don’t dispute the possibility of what you are saying being correct. I can say that if I adopted your view I would have given up long ago as an independent investigator. There is no way people outside of a tiny inner circle could ever hope to access the truth.
In the meantime, I will plod along as best I can as sincerely as I can.
A paranoid view would be to assume you are from that inner circle trying to discourage me. 🙂
@jeff
The way I see it the revelations in the Time article is just a matter of semantics, a subtle shift from absence of proof of culpability to acknowledgment that someone did plot a course to SIO on that FS, and mind bogglingly grudgingly so! Why? I dunno
IMO, the Americans have taken it upon themselves to reveal what actually transpired on that fateful night via a series of “drip” revelations. I suppose they are using psychology to get the “reluctant” Australians on board. For the life of me, I cannot fathom why the Australians are reluctant to come aboard and rather surprisingly intransigent on this score given their close strategic alliance with the US, you know Pine Gap and all. It puts the ATSB in a negative light altogether at least for me. But then again there is that chequered past regarding Norfolk Air etc……,The Malaysians probably cannot afford a damning revelation so I am not too hopeful in that regard. I feel it’s nothing do with the airline but more to do with revenue from tourism rather any political fallout but that’s my conjecture.
I just happened to review the CNN interview with the sister the other day in which she spoke about Zaharie’s “passing fancy” with politics but another article, I have linked twice before, shows it was more than a passing fancy as attested by the Opposition leader himself. I am in no way implying that caused it but it sure alerted me to view the sister’s claim that the FS was broken in a different light. I don’t have any corroborative evidence to nail the pilot for sure but neither do I suspect any of us here.
The absence of verified solid data is a big impediment and that by default puts every other theory outlandish though they may be on the table save for alien abductions perhaps
And ironically the rather amorphous nature of the available data makes every theory out there plausible and “fittable” with that data, even your Kazakhstan flight of fancy!.
I think in the end this thing will only be resolved if someone takes charge and divulges everything come what may. Unfortunately the odds are stacked against that once I read this :
Since 1948, only three of some 80 other aircraft lost have been found after extensive searches – Eastern Airlines Flight 980, lost January 1, 1985 and found in 2006; Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571, lost October 13, 1972 and found 72 days later; and Air France Flight AF447, lost June 1, 2009 and found June 1, 2009 and found May 2011.
https://olivermcgee.org/wreckage-of-mh370s-boeing-777-200er-found/
I mean MH 370 might just be chalked up as “MIA” like the other 77 and folks move on. There is a real possibility of that happening and what a travesty to the NOK that would be if it did pan out that way. But by the looks of it sans the Americans taking the bull by its horns, I don’t see any of the others stepping up the plate. And that’s the bleakest I can get….
@DennisW
Didn’t mean to upset you there. Sincere apologies if that was the case.
DennisW
“A paranoid view would be to assume you are from that inner circle trying to discourage me.”
LOL, I’m retired and investigating the anomalous things that happen around the world is a hobby of mine. In this case the whole thing stank to high heaven from the start, and I thought the NOK were being given a raw deal. The truth needs to come out, no matter how bad it may be for those in authority.
Not trying to discourage anyone from doing the same, in fact only a minute examination of the official story and ‘evidence’ can give us a chance to get to the truth – we all have to keep going. The people behind the cover-up aren’t perfect and I’m hoping for the one slip to emerge which provide the ‘Rosetta Stone’ to allow the mystery to be unravelled. When you’re mining for diamonds you will always end up with large heaps of spoil.
@Wazir
I never get upset. I may word some things in ways I regret when I have been drinking, but upset – never. Thanks for asking, however.
@Boris
Good for you. I am also retired. While not quite as miserable as ROB might suppose (or suicidal) I do find myself wondering how our young people will get on when we pass. There will be no one left around who knows how to maintain the infrastructure?
Here’s a direct link to the drift research article:
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/1623/2016/
Further north and quite close to the route identified from the flight sim.
@Wazir Roslan
“someone did plot a course to SIO”
No one plotted a course at any time after Igari. How that “plane” steered is beyond anyones imagine.
From Malacca Strait MH370 changed altitude maybe ones.
The 7th arc is a make-believe scenario.
What we are dealing with here are macro possibilities.
“alien abductions perhaps”
There was a recorded UFO that took off right before MH370 vanished from flightradar24.
@Susie Crowe
I never said I was in my forties. I never evermentioned my age, except to tell Dennis sometime back that I was old (he thought I sounded young!) This is interesting if only because its a trivial example of how thing can get misconstrued at best, and just plain invented at worst. It’s ok Susie, just having a bit of fun to lighten the atmosphere. It a pretty sad subject we are dealing with here, I’m sure you will agree.
BTW, I’m 68. Ps plying the ATSB (SSWG) with helpful advice and keeping their spirits up while they trawled along the 7th arc, and also finding time to amuse you lot as well, has been one of the most interesting things I’ve ever been involved in. Doesn’t say much for the other, does it? 🙂
@DennisW
I’m not sure what the future will bring regarding infrastructure, however if a job needs to be done someone will learn to become expert in that niche to earn his living. A few week back a neighbouring farmer hired someone to put in a dew-pond for his sheep. I popped round to see how it was done, expecting to see an oldster like me, and was surprised to find a girl in her twenties doing the job. Be interesting to see if it works, as they are tricky things to get right.
@Trond
“From Malacca Strait MH370 changed altitude maybe ones.”
The only confirmation it was in Malacca Strait came from the dodgy Lido Slide shown at the NOK presentation in China, supposedly based on Malaysian Military Radar recording. This piece of ‘evidence’ isn’t solid and could easily be spoofed. They were very late releasing this info which is also suspicious.
@Rob
Thank you for correcting me in such a respectful manner. I think it is pretty cool this is one of the most interesting things you have ever been involved in. Not that it matters but I think I am starting to like you.
We do however have vastly different perceptions of Captain Shah and his actions, another reason we need to finish this.
@Jeffwise
How about it, Jeff? Trond isn’t contributing anything factual
to this blog, not even the courtesy of a URL link for his belief
that a ‘UFO’ was involved in the disappearance of MH370.
On the other hand, Trond is contributing negatively to the
perception of this blog, and people posting on it.
Are you happy for your journalistic peers to be soon floating
the suggestion that ‘a UFO was involved in the disappearance
of MH370’, is an accepted theory in your next book?
@buyerninety, If anyone’s sensitivities are offended by the outrageousness of Trond’s proposition then they’ve probably already been flattened by all the other craziness that gets posted here.
I have to save my ammo, you know.
@Boris/Trond
Actually the ISAT data infers that the plane had to travel virtually straight West at near normal cruise speed to get from IGARI to the 18:25 range ring in the required time. I have personally never used any radar “data” for any purpose. I agree that it is all “dodgy” as you say, and graphical.
@Susie Crowe
Thank you Susie. It matters a lot that you are beginning to like me :), because I would much rather be liked than disliked (there is one thing worse – being ignored, as I’m sure you will agree.
We will have to agree to disagree on the subject of Shah’s involvement.
As you said, the most important people are the NOK. They deserve closure.
What would we be thinking if the FBI had found the FS data on a computer belonging to any of the other 238 persons on board? That person would be our No. 1 suspect, correct? Why is it any different that it was on Shah’s computer?
@Boris Tabaksplatt
Perhabs they were late on releasing info because it seemed bogus even for them. I fully believe they want to be transparent (as they have nothing to hide and business was as usual), but what they are hiding could also be information that the public would never believe.
@buyerninety
Do you know what UFO is short for? Go read upon it before you make idiotic accusation.
@DennisW
There were at least, if not only, 2 readings in Malacca Strait. One flying higher than the other. One flying straight and one flying zig-zag.
guys, take a break for a while; I am almost sure that also Captain would like to go back to the future when things was done right and fast, yet without extreme agility and lawyers dancing everywhere… tnx for all the examples
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeEGJg6vXCg
(Paul Laughton, 8bit home computing world)
@Trond
I have not looked at the data for some time. I do know that for the Inmarsat ping to be where it was the plane flew West from iGARI at close to 500+/- knots ground speed.
@Lauren H. Absolutely hit the nail on the head. What a coincidence.
@Wasir Rozlan
This is strictly between you and me, but don’t believe a word ALSM says. He speak with forked tongue. Nice guy though, and very helpful. Simply put, if his theory was the right one, the plane would have been found by now.
This is the terrible dilemma the ATSB find themselves in; they put their money on the high speed spiral descent. The Malaysians liked that one too. Unfortunate choice, now disproved by events.
Cracks are now beginning to appear, though.
I find the recent remarks coming out of Australia, as most interesting. Darren Chester says the simulator information shows “only the possibility of planning”. It begs the question, planning for what, and by whom? The act of planning requires a planner, no less! This from a administration whose official view up to now was that the disappearance was unplanned. Watch this space.
DennisW
Inmarsat was be run by under the auspices of the UN. It is now a private company doing lots of government work and I strongly suspect it has been subverted, completely or in part, by intelligence services I think they supply 5+1Eyyes with valuable SIGINT and I wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them. Too many red flags.
@Dennis
Just curious as to why you keep saying the plane had to travel “virtually straight West”. The path via Penang is nearly due southwest (then northwest) and entirely consistent with the radar traces and reaching the 18:25 ping ring at cruise speed. It may be semantics but to the casual reader it would seem you are disqualifying that path as impossible timing-wise.
@buyerninety
FWIW, my guess is Trond is referring to the erroneous playback glitch on FlightRadar24 as a “UFO” (not of extraterrestrial origin).
@ROB
That the plane was not found in the priority search zone does not disprove anything. The search zone was the “highest probability” area to limit the search… not the “absolute certainty” area. It could easily be a few degrees or more on either side of that zone, statistically.
@Phil
Correct, but was the exact area they wanted to search.
@Phil
If you know a coder/programmer these things just doesn’t happen. Also it is impossible to backtrack it AND reproduce it! For someone that barely knows how to turn on a computer this went by quietly without any alarmbells going off.
I’m not saying it was something out there, infact it was only on the screen. Not from software, script, memory, hardware or anything internal or external in the computer.
I wonder if they had someone to look at this or if it was swept under the carpet.