Hot on the heels of a reported possible MH370 piece in South Australia, news reaches us that Blaine Alan Gibson has found three pieces of suspected MH370 debris in Madagascar. This article says, in part:
Three new fragments which could have come from Malaysia Airlines Flight 270 were discovered on the morning of Monday, June 6, on the Island of Nosy Boraha, in the northeast of Madagascar…
These fragments were found by Blaine Alan Gibson, an American businessman, while he was accompanied by a from the France 2 TV show “Complément d’enquête.” They were on a long, almost deserted beach near the village of Sahasifotra, where tons of waste arrive every day from the Indian Ocean.
One piece in particular, 77 cm wide by 50 cm, apparently made by composite materials, strongly resembles another fragment which Gibson found in February on the coast of Mozambique.
” These two fragments are very very similar: the same paint color, the diameter of the attachment holes is identical. and on the back the texture is the same. I believe that it is a piece from MH370,” Blaine Alan Gibson told our colleagues. Two other parts were also found, a smaller panel with the inscription “FB” as well as another plastic part which could be the frame of an economy class seat’s video screen.
UPDATE 6/9/16: Here’s a screengrab of a YouTube video showing a Malaysia Airlines 777 economy class seatback (thanks to reader @sk999). The coat hook in particular looks like a good match for the third piece.
Here’s an even better shot, via @BBCwestcott. Note the color of the fabric around the “COAT HOOK” button:
here @jeff described that indonesian radar was and is probably quite busy there…
http://jeffwise.net/2014/11/18/mh370-and-the-mystery-of-indonesian-radar/
@Oleksander @VictorI
Fascinating! Just wanted to thank you for both for your continued and insightful efforts to descriminate the frustratingly scant amount of data on hand.
Interesting that MS804 was captured on radar to a point and surface debris was found the next day yet it took a month to find the black boxes. Based on that comparison it’s no wonder they haven’t found MH370.
@Victor
Despite the truly massive amounts of analytical work done by posters here as well as others. I assert that only three things can be stated with a high degree of confidence.
1> The plane flew due West from Igari to arrive at the 18:25 range ring on time (I mistyped 17:25 earlier).
2> The plane was flying due South “near” the equator at 19:40.
3> The drift studies relative to the recovered debris strongly suggest a terminus at or North of ~30S.
Beyond the above, everything else is pretty much arm waving and in the conjecture category.
@DennisW: If there was consensus that the plane crossed the 7th arc outside of the current search area, and to the north of a particular latitude in the Indian Ocean, be it 30S or something else, that would be a major accomplishment in my mind, considering the current mindset is to end the search in August.
Looked at the interesting diagram and statistics of @Oleksandr that @Victorl provided.
Few things that stand out for me are the gradual deviation to the north (the right)after 18:22:12 and the gradual descent from 6034m starting at 18:27:08 turning in a steap descent at 18:28:14 to 3512m till 18:40:56. In accordance to an emergency descent as @Oleksandr states in comments to the left. The turn circle is made to the right initialy going to the north ending on a more southern heading as I understand it well.
Log on sequence starts at 18:25:27.
Just to make an attempt I try to fit this data with the ‘shot at and only damaged’ scenario:
-somewhere between 18:22 and 18:25 the plane was shot at, damaged and the right engine taken out.
– rudder compensated immediatly but it started to veer off slightly to the right (north) due to right wing damage.
-due to the right engine taken out and maybe other damage the log on request sequence started at 18:25:27
-maybe due to a cabin breached by sharpnel the plane lost pressure and was forced to an emergency descent starting at 18:28:14 descending to 3512m at 18:40:56.
There could well be more plausible reasons for this deviation, log on request, turn and ’emergenacy descent’ but in my ‘logic’ it all could also fit a scenario like this.
Don’t get upset please, a scenario like this is meant to shoot at.
@Victorl
I like to say I agree completely.
And I think there is hope for I observe consensus is building strongly towards an area around ~30S from different angles of view based on different credible information.
I have the hope and a certain certainty the found debris is going to tell us a lot more still and other important debris will be found before this search is ended.
And if it may occure new proof surfaces in between that will favour a certain scenario and excludes others this will be of great help too.
I don’t give up hope yet. Consensus is imo clearly on the way to a more northern location.
@Ge Rijn
Thank you for your persistent and factual analysis. I’d like to offer a variation. As the plane reached cruising altitude a change in engine speed initiated a vibrational failure. What if the right engine somehow failed and parts of it penetrated the fuselage. This could account for the loss of electronics. The plane would automatically go into a sharp turn and the pilots would try to regain control. This engine would be flaming out. The pilots would follow way points up the malacca straits to get to open water where a crash would cause minimal damage. Remember the fire that destroyed Malaysian maintenance records? It could have been set to hide maintenance related issues with the plane.
They regained partial control before a catastrophic pressure failure turned the plane into a ghost flight. Malaysia is hiding the maintenance of the plane. The plane flew south on one engine with significant crab and trim issues and is in a very different location. This somewhat explains Kate Tee and Mike McCoy. And it explains why Malaysia is deliberately obfuscating the facts.
@LaurenH, Not only did they have surface debris (in an area without very strong surface currents btw) but also radar returns, ADS-B, ACARS, and an ELT signal. On the other hand, the black box pingers must have been broken. I think they had to wait for a ship to arrive with equipment for a sidescan sonar search. But, yes, an absolute cakewalk compared to MH370.
The “flight envelope” diagram of a B-777 (altitude vs. IAS) has a “knee” at ~32000′ altitude & 329kts IAS / M0.87. If you overlay contour lines of constant TAS, then you observe that the “knee” is the fastest TAS possible within the a/c’s flight envelope.
Thus, MH370 flew along the military-radar track at ~32,000′ at ~510kts GS in the “knee” of the “leading edge” of its flight-envelope, i.e. at maximum possible True Air Speed for the plane… especially if you allow for some “PDA” “performance degradation allowance” of the engines and the ~15-year age of the aircraft.
The steep climb @ NILAM, of 5000′ (Dr. Ulich) or even 7000′ (this author), could reflect a “zoom climb”, trading high airspeed for high altitude. A “zoom climb” from ~32000′ to almost 40,000′ would reduce TAS to the 800kph which Inmarsat found best-fit the satellite data, in their famous JoN article. And, in addition, at 40,000′, the M0.81 to M0.87 FMC-controlled speed modes of MRC / LRC / ECON have ~800kph TAS, because the aircraft is so high and the air is so cold. Thus, a very-high altitude of ~40,000′, could reconcile the ATSB’s best-fit flight-paths according to “Constrained Autopilot Dynamics” (e.g. FMC-controlled Mach-based high-altitude speed modes) with their “Data Error Optimization” candidate paths, which better fit the satellite data, at slower speeds and hence more northerly 7th-arc crossings. For, at high altitude, high-Mach speed modes have slower TAS in the ballpark of ~800kph. Pushing the a/c up to very-high altitude, might “merge” both clusters of the ATSB’s best-fit candidate flight-paths, “bending” the high-Mach “AP dynamics” modes up to the NE, on slower True Air Speed paths, crossing the 7th arc between 30-35deg.
A “zoom climb” @ NILAM could account for Inmarsat’s published deceleration, from the military radar track speed of 900-930kph, to the JoN article’s ghost-flight speed of 800-829kph. And, it would put the aircraft up near 40000′, where high-Mach speed modes still have slower TAS that cross the 7th arc between 30-35S.
Speculatively, prolonged flight of more than one hour, along the leading edge of its flight envelope, could have damaged the structural integrity of the a/c’s fuselage, setting the stage for a “cabin disintegrating” scenario. A “zoom climb” is construable as an attempt to “air brake”, to slow down perhaps as the initial step in a landing attempt, and would necessarily put the a/c up at high altitude with a positive AoA > 0 to provide more lift. And, that AoA > 0 would enable the a/c to maintain a constant TAS for the remainder of the ghost-flight, for as fuel usage lightened the aircraft, AoA could be reduced, to reduce lift, without changing altitude or TAS.
Very high altitude can reconcile military radar track speeds (900-930kph) with Inmarsat’s best-fit speeds (800-830kph), and the ATSB’s “AP” paths with their “Data Optimized” paths, because at high cold altitudes, higher Mach is still lower TAS.
I wonder if anyone has attempted to derive a speed of the aircraft
in the radar picture, not by figuring the distance vs the times
marked therein, but instead by reconciling the rotation speed of
the radar antenna (of whatever make, model and usual mode it is
operated in) against the progression of the individual ‘painted’
strips (which represent the radar ‘returns’) in the picture.
The strips can (just) be individually distinguished – however
several of the outlier strips at the ends of the track should be
disregarded, to account for imprecise radar returns that
possibly resulted from the aircraft passing through an area that
begins to be ‘masked’ from the radar signal (for instance, by a
hill near the radar antenna site).
Sanity check?
@VictorI @buyerninety.
Thanks for clarifying what was said re: Indonesian radar. IMO that still leaves us with a slight possibility of intervention by one or other military at 18:40ish or some other significant occurrence at that time, changing what appears to me to be a hijacked plane being deliberately flown West, trying to evade radar, to a ghost flight or hijack plan B or …. who knows.
@Ge Rijn
What caused the damage you have observed on debris is one of the most interesting unknowns IMO. Maybe we will get some information on debris in ATSB’s Wednesday report after the meeting with Malayasia and China (I’m always hopeful).
@AM2
Interestingly the French haven’t been invited to this meeting, which is of course because they are not directly involved in the SIO search. However they have had significant input around the flaperon and search around Reunion.
Perhaps it’s because the French Criminal Justice system considers disappearance of 9M-MRO an “act of terrorism”. Something they know that we don’t?
@buyerninety,
Oz said;
“My reading is that the RR would give a relight the one try, fuel
being injected as the engine drops below idle.”
That should be “David said”.
The EEC needs to be reset by moving the fuel control switch to cutout and back to run.
OZ
A website has released 54 photographs of objects found by Blaine on the same beach as the recent three aircraft parts.
http://aircrashsupportgroupaustralia.weebly.com/mh-370.html
He is hoping the relatives will be able to identify whether any of these items belonged to their family members or not.
About time someone did this is all I can say. Bloody marvellous. It is also very poignant.
Oh and according to a guy on twitter, the shoe sole is from a River Brand shoe which is only sold in Aus and NZ.
There are quite a few bags as well, and they all look very much the worse for wear.
@SteveBarrett
I haven’t heard any estimate on when the French judicial system will release details of the flaperon analysis etc. Looking on the MH370 France Facebook site today, they and Voice370 are making strong demands for ISAT data, radar data, flaperon analysis and many other things as you might expect from the NOK groups.
@ALL
My view of the current situation:
MH370 has not been found yet primarily because the ATSB unfortunately failed to consider the most plausible end-of-flight scenario, ie. the extended, pilot-controlled glide that followed fuel exhaustion. The ISAT has not been misinterpreted. There are no convincing arguments to back up the assertion that ISAT has been misinterpreted, only illogical and convoluted speculations, and a lot of arm waving (a phrase I borrow from Dennis) born of frustration. Frustration with the lack of progress.
Wreckage drift modelling is clearly a very imprecise science. There are as many different ways of determining a model as there are modellers to determine them. To be driven off course by their siren songs would be a very serious mistake.
The ATSB must press on and extend their search downrange of the DSTG hotspot located at S38, E88.5, if there is to be any chance of finding the aircraft.
@Susie
Photo 14, 15 & 16 are a ‘Rivers’ brand thong or sandal.
Here is the website, for others to match the logo (that
is partially seen on the thong or sandal).
http://www.rivers.com.au/stores/find.asp#results
@Trip
Thank you. In a way you describe a similar scenario but with different causes (engine shut down and other damage due to mechanical engine failure) starting at/around IGARI.
Maybe it happened this way but the flight from IGARI till 18:22 was imo too controlled and consistent for such an incident happening that early. Imo it’s also harder to explain other issues this way but I certainly won’t argue to discard a possibility like this.
In regard of a ‘shot at and only damaged’ scenario I also reviewed the statements of Kate Tee again. And I must say I find those strikingly matching a scenario like this.
She saw what she thought to be a burning passenger plane coming from the north and then heading south. She saw two other planes passing above it heading the opposite directions (two jets returning to base?).
Her ship logs afterwards confirmed her sighting was done at the right time and location in the Mallacca straight where MH370 was calculated to have passed around that time.
It could fit. She may have witnessed MH370 after the attack with a burning (fuel) engine (causing the brihgt orange light and leaving the black smoke trail she saw) making its FMT in an emergency descent and two fighter jets returning to base.
I add the article with in it a link to here factual transcript of the sighting:
http://www.phuketgazette.net/phuket-news/I-thought-saw-MH370-fire-says-Phuket/29654#ad-image-0
By diving deeper into the ‘Kate Tee story’ I come across other striking (to me at least) information.
A possible engine fire at the time of her sighting was discussed long time ago allready:
https://saucysailoress.wordpress.com/2014/07/27/a-sneak-preview-of-an-independent-report/
@ Buyerninety,
Many thanks – I can’t find the exact match on the website but I believe you that it’s correct. I think I just haven’t looked in the right place.
@ All, regarding this series of photographs – I don’t know about others but I never, ever find handbags or luggage on a beach. Anywhere.
I guess rubbish disposal may be different in other parts of the world, but do people seriously throw their hand luggage away into the sea?
Also, often people say ‘it could have come from a ship’ – well yes, but again, how many people throw bags off ships?
It seems very unlikely that these could have come from anything other than a crashed aircraft. One or maybe two over an 18km stretch perhaps could just be from random sources but this many looks like – in my opinion – a bit of a collection.
@Ge Rijn
How do you propose to square your engine out scenario with the fact that the aircraft was observed to be flying at an average Mach 0.88, or close to maximum speed, between 17:22 and 18:22?
@buyerninety. Left engine relight. No problem with the original quote, your interpretation that the EEC would shut down the engine when it drops to 35%; or with the OZ statement that it would need a thence to restart.
My point was that the engine relight attempt would be before the engine speed had dropped that far. Before that attempt the fuel pump would have started delivering fuel to the engine, the engine’s fuel manifold having reached zero pressure well before. With a split of engine spool speeds (as fuel supply) indicating flameout, the APU fuel pump would be started independently, ie well before the engine dropped to “sub-idle” (as per OZ).
Yes fuel available would be limited by any pitch to less than the small 30 lbs of nominal residual fuel. The point was that the engine’s consumption in a relight with or without pitch would starve the APU of residual fuel except for any it could access from its pipeline.
@Rob
That’s an easy one to answer. If you read my post well you can see that I asumed an engine shut down shortly past 18:22.
The speed you mention was one of the reasons I thought (on second thought) it probably could not have happened (if it happened..) before 18:22.
@Susie
How come you always seem to find the latest news and pictures?
I suppose it’s one of those agvantages of being on the spectrum.. 😉
This action taken by Blaine Gibson sure deserves respect and follow up.
I don’t think it will be easy to relate one of those items to MH370 but it’s sure worth to try.
Tourist lose/forget/get stolen off many shoes, bags, cameras with its bags etc. on beaches and in tourist places around the world.
But to find an amount of those items in relation to three aircraft debris items found at the same location makes them more suspicious I agree.
Hope it brings results.
@ Ge Rijn
Whenever I reread Kate Tee I feel she is a credible witness whose words have been discounted for no apparent reason. I think a damaged ac for whatever cause explains a lot.
@ Ge Rijn,
I have to admit it’s easy to become obsessive about something, having ASD, but it’s also to do with being at home with my three year old all day, and having twitter on in the background…things pop up, I have a quick look and I post them here.
Also America is still asleep when we get up, isn’t it? I have a feeling a lot of commentators here are in the US. So we have a head start, which isn’t fair really is it : ) (assuming you are in NL?)
Also, I’m not too busy calculating waypoint distances and aircraft speeds, because I can’t do that sort of thing, so being a bit thick also has advantages : )
How awful it must be though, if you had lost someone on the plane, and you recognised an item which you knew belonged to them.
@David,
You have no idea what you are on about!
Stop the BS!!!
OZ
@Trip @others
Yes I also always had that opinion on her witness account. But it was kind of strange and could not fit any logical scenario imo.
Till a scenario like this one (imo).
A question hopefully someone can answer:
To trigger a SDU log on request which engine needs to be shut down the left or the right?
@Ge Rijn
Thank you for clarifying. I apologize for being critical. I think you are doing a great job, actually. At least you are trying to come up with ideas.
@Suzie: “How awful it must be though, if you had lost someone on the plane, and you recognised an item which you knew belonged to them.”
You’re not wrong.
But thank you very much for the link. I just cant understand BG. Cuts people off at the pass when they ask (not even tough) questions, but clearly his motive is to find an answer on MH370. If only he could grasp the concept of mutual collaboration.
Living in AUS, I can concur with buyer ninety, that logo on the sandle is “rivers” brand.
I also note the slides 2-7, being a “Case Logic” camera bag is also a commonly available item here.
Both items are made in China, so in this global market place, I don’t think they could be constrained to being marketed solely in AU, but I can confirm they are both available here. I have items of both brands here @home.
I have to admit, some of the other debris is suspicious too. But even if confirmed, what does it show us? Its not a pleasant thought.
@Susie
On the contrary, Susie, I think it’s a very fair advantage 🙂
We can discuss the latest developments while the US is still in bed. Although I’ve noticed that Jeff seems to be a very early riser, so it doesn’t do to be too complacent.
I find it interesting that the FAA is citing the MH370 disappearance (in addition to the German Wings crash) as justification for increased emphasis on mental health of pilots. I suspect that we are going to see more organizations lining up to put the blame on the pilot.
“Prompted by the tragedies of the Germanwings crash last year and the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 in 2014, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is working with commercial airlines and pilots’ unions to improve mental health evaluations, and encourage voluntary reporting of pilot mental health issues.”
http://www.travelpulse.com/news/airlines/germanwings-mh370-tragedies-prompt-faa-scrutiny-of-pilots-mental-fitness.html
@Rob
Thanks. No apologize needed though for being critical. That’s something I’d rather welcome.
@Sharkcaver
I know what you mean about “made in China”
I bought an item of underwear when I was over in Alice Springs a while back, hoping it would be genuine outback goods. But no, “made in China” again.
Fascinating stuff this, I can’t find a picture I was looking at of a damaged seatback at the MH17 site, I have just noticed that coat hook, is not naturally recessed. so the dimple in the plastic around it was made by a heavy body pushing it in.
@Sharkcaver, I too am puzzled by BG. This most recent burst of publicity strikes me as typically odd. Thinks of the Indian Ocean, with its thousands of miles of coastline and billions of people living within its watershed, as a lottery-ticket bin from which the forces of current and wind pluck out a piece of random floating junk and deposit on a beach on the east coast of Madagascar. Now consider a single incident, involving a few hundred souls and their luggage, on the far side of the ocean. What percent of the total amount of crap floating in the ocean can be attributed to that crash? A thousandth of a percent? A millionth? Whatever that tiny number is, that’s the probability that any of these objects came from MH370.
@ Sharkcaver – thanks for the additional info, and actually I too have a ‘case logic’ camera case here. Not sure if the shoes are less widely available – I’m in the UK.
@ Jeff, I’m wondering about these items – I suppose yes the Indian Ocean is vast, but also it’s fairly unpopulated in the most part. Not many islands, not many passenger crossings.
Things could have come from being left on other beaches, or from rubbish being dumped I suppose, but does that happen on an industrial scale? – and also, unless the items fell or were thrown from a ship – well, what I suppose I’m trying to say is that in order to wash up from the sea, they would need to get into the sea somehow.
Just because lots of people visit beaches or go fishing around the busier parts of the IO, it doesn’t mean they are routinely dumping pieces of luggage and purses in it.
So I’m kind of on the fence here.
@Susie, To say that the Indian Ocean is fairly unpopulated is… well, consider that the country that the ocean is named after by itself is pushing a billion, many of them living near the coast or on waterways that feed into the ocean. Bangladesh and Pakistan are generally considered not sparsely populated, either. Burma, Thailand, half of Africa–in short, a considerable chunk of the earth’s population lives on its shores. Sea traffic between Europe and Asia crosses through the middle of it, not to mention coastal traffic, fishing, and yes garbage dumping.
To put it more bluntly, the idea that any of this stuff in any way can be presumed to come from MH370, or indeed is in any way likely to come from MH370, is pure bonkers.
Awaiting hopefully an answer on my earlier question about the SDU re log on at 18:25 I digged a bit further.
Reading Jeff’s topic again about the subject some things crossed my mind.
http://jeffwise.net/2016/05/16/the-sdu-re-logon-a-small-detail-that-tells-us-so-much-about-the-fate-of-mh370/
I read the ATSB found the log on request to be most consistent with a power interuption to the SDU.
I read the SDU is primairy powered by the left main engine IDG via a left generator circuit breaker.
Can this mean that assuming the left engine shut down at 18:25 back up systems triggered a new SDU log on sequence?
If this makes no sence please someone tell me so I can leave it in time.
@Jeff W “To put it more bluntly, the idea that any of this stuff in any way can be presumed to come from MH370, or indeed is in any way likely to come from MH370, is pure bonkers.”
Its all good Jeff, I got it sorted:
“Specialty Fashion thought it was getting a bargain when it struck a deal to buy value fashion chain Rivers from founder Philip Goodman for just $4 million two years ago.
“But when Specialty finally got the keys to the 28-year-old retailer it found more than it had bargained for – 8.6 million pieces of aged stock sitting in warehouses.
“At one stage we thought about dumping it all at sea,” Specialty Fashion’s outgoing chairman Geoff Levy told shareholders at the annual meeting on Tuesday.”
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/what-specialty-fashion-found-when-it-bought-rivers-20151116-gl0lck.html
Go Figure……
If only BG had contacted me when he was here, looking for moist towelettes……
Oh, and a size 13 sandle shouldn’t be too hard to get confirmed or debunked.
@Sharkcaver, Great find!
@Ge Rijn
No, automatic power transfer would ensure the SDU remained powered up. The B777 electrical supply system is designed to ensure an essentially continuous supply. They call it a break transfer, in contrast to a no-break transfer, but the SDU would keep working.
To cause the SDU to reboot, you would have to isolate Left main AC bus completely by switching out circuit breakers, from the cockpit overhead panel
Found the pic from MH17 seat back (retired f4 page 2 this thread)
@ retired f4… I like your thinking….maybe Mh17 was shot down ‘on order’ to provide the now necessary Mh370 debris!
However looking at the 17 debris pic I think that would put the coat hook on the wrong side of the seat. interesting how the break up of the plastic is very similar.
Just wondering if mg370 was having electrical issues on any of its previous year of flights ? Not sure if anything can be glanced from the public records of strange recordings.
@ Jeff, well, given the points you raise regarding population, and looking at Sharkcaver’s link…all I can possibly say is, fair enough!
@Susie
On second thought I think Jeff is right.
I now think also we must consider the value of this debris possibly relating to MH370 at virtualy zero.
If you ever saw the amounts of garbage in the rivers passing through cities like Bangkok or Bombay daily you’ll be convinced also probably.
And this are only two cities I saw it myself.
Ethics on disposel of waste are completely different in those countries than in our western society.
It’s realy tragic to see.
I’ve been across India and Thailand and it realy made me sad.