UPDATED 5/21/16: Egyptian authorities have released photos of MS804 debris recovered from the ocean. Here’s a cropped version of one of them:
The size, the shape of the edges, the amount of exposed honeycomb and even the presence of fasteners is quite reminiscent of MH370 debris found in the western Indian Ocean, especially “No Step.” Of course, marine fouling is absent.
UPDATE 5/20/16: CNN has posted a screengrab showing ACARS error messages just before MS804 crashed:
As you can see in the diagram below, there is a lavatory directly behind the captain’s seat. If there is thick smoke in there, it could penetrate down into the avionics bay below:
Gerry Soejatman points out: “It appears that aircraft may have had an in-flight fire and if so, the aircraft maneuvers could be due to Smoke Removal Emergency Procedures, which involves descending the aircraft to 10,000 feet and also opening the cockpit window.”
A reader interprets the ACARS messages:
00:26 ANT-ICE R WINDOW; a fault is in either the right sliding window or fixed window (not the windshield).
00:26 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR; the right window heat control unit detects a problem with the sliding window sensor circuit.
00:26 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE; smoke detected in the lavatory.
00:27 AVIONICS SMOKE; smoke is detected in the Avionics bay.
00:28 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR; the right window heat control unit detects a problem with the fixed window sensor circuit.
00:29 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT; autopilot flight control unit (Mode control panel) channel 2 is faulted. Channel 1 still OK so no big deal.
00:29 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT; the number 3 spoiler elevator computer is faulted. Number 1 and 2 still OK.If a bomb has gone off near the forward toilet the blast may have damaged the right window heating somehow. There would be a short delay until the toilet smoke detector goes off.
ORIGINAL POST, 5/19/2016:
At timing of writing, 6.15am Eastern Daylight Time, Egyptian and Greek military boats and planes are still hunting for a missing airliner, Egyptair Flight 804, which disappeared over the Mediterranean Sea at approximately 2.30am local time. The plane was three and a half hours into a scheduled flight from Paris, France to Cairo, Egypt.
Airbus has put out a statement which reads, in part:
The aircraft involved, registered under SU-GCC was MSN (Manufacturer Serial Number) 2088 delivered to Egyptair from the production line in November 2003. The aircraft had accumulated approximately 48,000 flight hours. It was powered by IAE engines. At this time no further factual information is available.
Here’s a screenshot of the ADS-B data reported by FlightAware. Note that this data is considered highly unreliable–but at the moment it’s all I’ve got:
Open in a separate tab to see full resolution. Note that the disappearance is sudden — the ADS-B doesn’t show any descent profile. This would be consistent with a catastrophic loss of electrical power (as perhaps due do a bomb or missile strike) or to someone deliberately turning off the electronic forms of communication, as was done in MH370. Below is a plot of the plane’s last known location.
Worth pointing out that the weather at the time was fair, suggesting that the incident was not weather-related, like AirAsia 8501 or Air France 447. I find it interesting that the disappearance took place right after the plane crossed from one Flight Information Region (FIR) to another–that is to say, when transferring from one air traffic control zone to another. MH370 disappeared under similar circumstances (also in fair weather in the middle of the night.) I would be very interested to see the ATC transcripts–in particular, to know if the plane signed off with the Greek controllers and failed to contact Egyptian ones.
The Mediterranean is a heavily-traveled body of water, both by sea and by air. It is heavily monitored. One can only presume that at the time it vanished from secondary radar screens it was being tracked by primary (military) radar as well. What’s more, based on historical precedent, when planes get into trouble at altitude like this, they tend to come down very close to their last known position. At the exact moment I write this, no debris has been found, but given the good weather conditions and the very small area to search, we should expect wreckage to start turning up very soon.
The Independent notes, “In March, an EgyptAir plane flying from Alexandria to Cairo was hijacked and forced to land in Cyprus by a man wearing what authorities said was a fake suicide belt. He was arrested after giving himself up.” In air crash circles, the name Egyptair is synonymous with EgyptAir 900, which crashed off Nantucket when one of the junior pilots deliberately steered into the ocean. At this point, both terror and suicide remain possible causes in the current incident.
UPDATE 7am EDT: The Guardian has just published this timeline, put out by Greece’s civil aviation department:
02:24: EgyptAir flight 804 from Paris to Cairo enters Greek airspace, air traffic controller permissions it for the remainder of its course.
02:48: The flight is transferred to the next air traffic control sector and is cleared for exit from Greek airspace. “The pilot was in good spirits and thanked the controller in Greek.”
03:27: Athens air traffic control tries to contact the aircraft to convey information on the switch of communications and control from Athens to Cairo air traffic. In spite of repeated calls, the aircraft does not respond, whereupon the air traffic controller calls the distress frequency, without a response from the aircraft.
03:29: It is above the exit point (from Greek airspace).
03:29:40: The aircraft signal is lost, approximately 7 nautical miles south/southeast of the KUMBI point, within Cairo FIR.
Immediately the assistance of radars of the Hellenic Air Force is requested to detect the target, without result.03:45: The processes of search and rescue are initiated, simultaneously informing the Flight Information Region of Cairo.
It seems, then, that unlike MH370, the flight crew here did not sign off with ATC before leaving their airspace.
I’m sure you would join in expressing every possible wish for the safety of the passengers, and in the worst case, deep sympathy for their families, Jeff.
Greece’s civil aviation department has apparently issued this timeline on MS804 last moments and attempts to reach it:
02:24: EgyptAir flight 804 from Paris to Cairo enters Greek airspace, air traffic controller permissions it for the remainder of its course.
02:48: The flight is transferred to the next air traffic control sector and is cleared for exit from Greek airspace. “The pilot was in good spirits and thanked the controller in Greek.”
03:27: Athens air traffic control tries to contact the aircraft to convey information on the switch of communications and control from Athens to Cairo air traffic. In spite of repeated calls, the aircraft does not respond, whereupon the air traffic controller calls the distress frequency, without a response from the aircraft.
03:29: It is above the exit point (from Greek airspace).
03:39:40: The aircraft signal is lost, approximately 7 nautical miles south/southeast of the KUMBI point, within Cairo FIR. Immediately the assistance of radars of the Hellenic Air Force is requested to detect the target, without result.
03:45: The processes of search and rescue are initiated, simultaneously informing the Flight Information Region of Cairo.
It is eerily reminiscent of MH370 at this point.
@Eoghan
“It is eerily reminiscent of MH370 at this point.”
And it also “disappears” at ‘flight level 370’ (FL370). Another strange coincidence (!)
Greek minister declares the plane made strange movements before disappearing from radar:
First a turn to the left of 90degrees then one to the right of 360degrees descending 6.7km in the process before it disappeared from radar.
The coincidences are indeed remarkable at this stage.
That Guardian timeline doesn’t seem to fit a sudden catastrophic event.
At 3.27 repeated calls weren’t answered suggesting something was already amiss.
Yet it is not for another full 12 minutes before it dissapears (from ADS-B?).
@Sajid UK
“And it also “disappears” at ‘flight level 370’ (FL370). Another strange coincidence ”
And it also disappears exactly 804 days after MH370.
Not into conspiracies but another interesting coincidence.
This video was uploaded to youtube 4 hours ago. It is claimed that it was recorded from a ship nearby the crash site of MS804:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_la2skbsT0&sns=em
@Oleksander
I believe that snippet is from this video, posted last year…
https://youtu.be/Sm9Gk1h3R7o
Actually, it is 803 days since March 8, 2014 today.
Was the Greek minister talking of primary radar based data when announcing those turns and descent?
Then did the plane flew on after vanishing from secondary radar?
Gysbreght,
The figure of 360 kias mainly appears in the tables related to “Engine Inop” sections, for example PI.13.2. However, I found it interesting that when go-around is initiated, then target speed is max {MCP IAS/MACH, current speed} + 25 knots; no top limit is mentioned (4.20.7), implying 355 kias max. Also, the statement “The pilot must apply continuous forward column force to maintain airspeed above VMO/MMO” (9.20.12) indicates that VMO/MMO can temporarily be exceeded.
ROB,
So you basically concluded that FMC is powered by the standby electrical system based on the two statements: (1) FMC is a part of the navigational system, and (2) the navigational system is powered by the standby electrical system in case of an emergency, correct? Do you have any explicit reference to FMC? If I recall correctly, the 2 GPS are also parts of the navigation system, but only one of them can be powered by the standby source (FI?).
Were their 3 aviation experts on the plane, I just heard the news quickly.
As per cnn:
“The flight seemed to be proceeding normally until it approached Egyptian airspace. Greek controllers talked to the pilot when the plane was near the Greek island of Kea at 37,000 feet at an air speed of 519 mph. Everything seemed fine at that point.
At 3:27 a.m. local time, shortly before the aircraft was scheduled to exit Greek airspace, controllers tried to reach the pilots to transfer control to Cairo authorities. Despite repeated attempts, they received no response, the Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority said. The plane passed into Egyptian airspace two minutes later. Forty seconds later, radar contact was lost, the authority said.”
Also, they are saying the plan “made a sharp turn” before disappearing….
Looks like some commonalities between the Egyptair and MH370.
“ATSB doesn’t show any descent profile.”
Those guys are sure keeping busy these days! 😉
The fact that the aircraft did not respond to the ATC at 3:27 but remained on SSR on a steady path until 3:39:40 suggests a series of malicious events were occurring rather than a technical failure.
We need to understand the source for the statements that the plane turned left before doing a 360-degree loop to the right while descending. Early reports from officials about radar-derived climb/descent manoeuvers of MH370 were later claimed by these same officials to be false. The primary radar data when made available will tell us a lot.
It took days for the SAR team for QZ8501 to find any floating debris, and even longer to find the underwater wreckage, so it is not (yet) surprising that no debris has been found.
@Warren
I agree, but they (the ATSB) thought they’d have a go at one they had a sporting chance of finding, for a change.
@Oleksandr
Are you just trying to catch ne out, or score points off me?
I suspect the answer is yes. In that case, you ca well do your own digging around.
What actually was the point of your abstruse and esoteric investigations anyway? On second thoughts, don’t bother to answer that one. I don’t think I could stand trying to understand it
Regarding the video of the fire in the sky, it appears to be a snippet taken from this video, posted last year…
(did comment this already, seems to have not gone through?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm9Gk1h3R7o
@StevanG
“And it also disappears exactly 804 days after MH370.”
Wow, well spotted!!! Bloody hell, that is so, so weird!!!
@Oleksandr: It seems you answered your question.
Sincere condolences to the families whose loved ones are lost on board MS 804.
The coincidences with the MH370 loss are very strange. Well spotted @StevanG. The comments made about the “right angle” and other turns made by the aircraft I find eerily familiar.
The very obvious difference though is that this is an Airbus not a Boeing.
ROB,
“Are you just trying to catch ne out, or score points off me?”
I am trying to gather technical details. I asked you for a reference, and got this silly response. As I see now, your aim is only to collect “score points” at Jeff’s blog. Then I can assure you, so far you have no points to lose.
My sincere condolences to the bereaved. Innocent lives cut short again. Again inexplicable manoeuvres that hint of something sinister, something similar that also befell MH 370 . Could it have been also deflected by shrapnel from exploding hence the quirky radar data?
Anyway, just taking that offbeat MH 370 SIO sojourn into consideration, could something like this happen on water especially with regard to the much hawked ditching theory and if so explains the absence of debris. Just wondering, though I don’t buy into the SIO thingy
Any comments?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vKo4Eee7V3s
@Victor
Egyptair debris has been found.
13:33 GMT
Greek defense sources have confirmed the discovery of the debris from the missing EgyptAir flight, AFP reports.
“There have been finds southeast of Crete, inside the Cairo flight information area,” Greece’s general staff spokesman, Vassilis Beletsiotis, told AFP.
# correction: exploding missile in above
@jeff, you couldn’t resist the one on mh370 could you? Can’t help but notice and smile 😀
@Warren, You can see how my brain thinks phonetically. And also how it thinks about the ATSB all the time.
@Sajid UK, @@StevanG
“And it also “disappears” at ‘flight level 370’ (FL370). Another strange coincidence ”
And it also disappears exactly 804 days after MH370.”
And MH370 disappeared exactly 370 days after the Goma Compagnie Africaine d’Aviation Fokker 50 crash (considering the time zone)
I reconstructed estimated BTOs for the MH370 flight-path from Penang to MEKAR towards NILAM. The BTOs decrease with time at the rate of about 1us / second (the slope on the MS Excel graph is around -84600us / day), equivalent to a speed of almost 300m/s.
However, the BTOs after MEKAR lie above that trend-line, they decrease much more slowly, i.e. the a/c slowed down significantly.
If you accept that, then at or immediately after MEKAR c.2:21am, the a/c slowed significantly, essentially simultaneous with a restoration of primary power to the L MAIN bus and/or SDU, several minutes prior to eventual SDU reboot & re-login. Makes me think that MEKAR was a significant waypoint, marking a maneuver (deceleration) combined with a pilot action (restoring power).
Prior to IGARI the aircraft was traveling on ECON with CI=52 at 470kts. After MEKAR and the FMT, a very likely ghost-flight speed was again 470kts. Perhaps pilot intervention somehow pushed the plane into a turbo-charged over-boost mode, from IGARI to MEKAR, at >500kts, which fast flight mode then _reverted_ to CI=52 ECON 470kts from MEKAR onwards ? Something vaguely like the pilot pushes the yoke full forward for an hour, and then lets go, and the plane eases back onto its ECON AP flight mode, decelerating 5-10% in the process ??
It’s also the case, that the SDU login at 2:25am occurred as the a/c was almost directly over the NILAM waypoint. Either that is perfect timing of reboot from MEKAR to login at NILAM, or perhaps the SDU was never off, and as the a/c overflew NILAM, the acting pilot flipped some switch, which restored necessary flight-data to the SDU, which immediately re-established satellite link ?
It’s 803 days since 08 March 2014.
@Rich – 3 EgyptAir security staff
My initial thought on hearing the reported strange movement of the a/c (especially the sharp turn to left) was that it if deliberate it was an “avoidance turn”. Was something coming at them? And if not deliberate, this was an A320- possibly a rudder problem?
Why the sudden sharp turn? (Is the reported a/c movement even true?)
The timing between last comms with MS804 and aircraft signal loss is very strange, especially since ATC was trying to call the a/c… That needs some explaining.
In terms of what I see on tv, it annoys me with the talking head speculation. To early to know what exactly happened and too early to rule out anything. BUT with Muslims or Arabs involved, it must be terrorism? That gets a bit old.
Quite sad for all the families affected by this tragedy. Hope there are answers for them soon.
FYI: Water depth at the suspected crash site of Egyptair Flight 804 is over 2000 meters; based on water depth map of the Mediterranean sea. Probably around +4000 meters.
http://www.britannica.com/media/full/372694/614
http://s32.postimg.org/cyea6nzr9/FMT_to_IGEBO.png
General consensus that MH370’s FMT was more or less north of Banda Aceh airport, more or less southwards towards the same. Consistent with a landing attempt.
Suggest that the a/c flew in “turbo-boost” mode from IGARI to MEKAR, then eased back into original ECON CI=52 mode at MEKAR towards IGOGU, as primary power was restored to L/R MAIN buses, perhaps to power lighting for PAX in prep. for landing. The systems reboot was complete by 2:29am, and very soon there-after, the a/c veered 100-deg to port onto a heading of almost 190 towards IGEBO. The desired idea was to complete a second turn towards Banda Aceh. But soon after the FMT from 2:31-33am, crew incapacitation became complete, and ghost-flight ensued out into the SIO. SatPhone-call placed to a/c near IGEBO and Maimun Saleh airport.
Personal favorite flight-path from there is Dr. Ulich’s contrails path to 40S 84E, yet basic idea accommodates a wide variety of similar such SIO routes. N571 towards IGOGU turning towards IGEBO with unattained aim of soon turning towards Banda Aceh main runway, so defaulting into Route Discontinuity mode after IGEBO towards SIO about as SatPhone rang on flight-deck.
[Trond is banned — JW]
@Erik Nelson, There is no “general consensus” of where the FMT occurred, or even if it occurred. There is certainly strong evidence against a ghost flight and against MH370 leaving contrails. In short what you are spreading here is a lot of misinformation.
@Cay@Tom
803 vs 804 days depends on whether or not you include the current day. With the current day included, and taking time zones into account, I get 804. Not that I attribute any particular significance to that. It is interesting.
Let’s wait, please! I’ve been following discussions on MH370 for more than 2 years, I think we got very sensitive (if that’s the right term, I’m German) to all things that happen to aircrafts. For now, there are parallels to MH370, but according to desinformation (high and low) or maybe correct information which was later ‘corrected’, we can only speculate. It’s in my mind to construct parallels, but at the time being, I hesitate to do so. (Please apologize for my poor English.)
Debris is found. No survivors yet and not to be expected. A tradedy again.
At least the faith of this plane is clear soon to everyone. Grace, love and strength for those directly involved and anybody affected.
Hopefully the unfolding causes of this disaster will contribute to the solving of the MH370 mystery.
Gysbreght,
“It seems you answered your question.”
Thx.
Infrared and multi-spectral imagers strongly suggest there was an explosion aboard the flight, a senior U.S. intelligence official familiar with the U.S.’s capabilities in the region told NBC News. He reaffirmed that a cause of the crash remains unknown, and Egyptian officials have not commented on any possible blast.
“It’s not conclusive, but it’s suggestive,” a U.S. administration official concurred. “Now, the question is, if there was an explosion, what caused it? Mechanical failure? Explosives? No idea at this point.”
Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/egyptair-crash/live-blog-latest-updates-egyptair-flight-804-crash-investigation-n576686
At 3:37 communication attempted by Greek ATC failed. The plane flew on until 3:39:40.
Military primary radar was asked immidiately to look for the plane after that with no result.
That’s at least flying on, almost 13 minutes after something terribly wrong occured.
But flying on after a bomb-blast, for 13 minutes or more? We’ll see.
Correction; at 3:27 communication attempted failed by Greek ATC..
@IR1907: I have not seen a definitive report that debris from MS804 has been found. Some sources say Greek authorities have recovered debris near the Greek island of Karpathos, which is 133 nm from the last ADS-B data. Other sources say that Egyptian authorities have recovered debris around 33.3N, 29.9E, which is 60 nm from the last ADS-B data, and within the Egyptian FIR.
Here is a new story that puts doubt on all of the previous debris claims:
Athens (AFP) – The head of the Greek air safety authority on Thursday told AFP that wreckage found in the Mediterranean close to where an EgyptAir passenger jet is thought to have crashed “does not come from a plane”.
“Up to now the analysis of the debris indicates that it does not come from a plane, my Egyptian counterpart also confirmed to me that it was not yet proven that the debris came from the EgyptAir flight when we were last in contact around 1745 GMT,” Athanasios Binis told AFP.
His words contradicted an earlier claim by EgyptAir on Twitter, which said Egyptian officials had confirmed that debris found near the Greek island of Karpathos came from the ill-fated flight, along with floating “life jackets and plastic material”.
“What was found was a piece of wood, and some materials that do not come from a plane,” said Binis of the Greek Air Accident Investigation and Aviation Safety Board.
“Based on the available geographical information, we are talking about the same debris,” he added, although he stressed that new information could come in at any time.
The EgyptAir plane carrying 66 people disappeared from radar screens early Thursday, taking two sharp turns before plunging 22,000 feet into the Mediterranean Sea, Greek officials said.
Egypt’s aviation minister said that while it was too soon to say why the Airbus A320 flying from Paris to Cairo had vanished, “a terrorist” attack would be a more likely scenario than a technical failure.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/greek-air-safety-authorities-deny-egyptair-wreckage-found-191845425.html?ref=gs
At least Yahoo could use an Egypt Air plane that is the right size?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/greek-air-safety-authorities-deny-egyptair-wreckage-found-191845425.html?ref=gs
Just saw this about Chinese jets on Quartz news. China would be especially vigilant at the FIR boundaries and might intercept any jet crossing into their “space” If China was responsible, Malaysia would cover for them.
“Chinese jets intercepted a US military plane. The “unsafe” maneuver by two Chinese fighter planes took place during a US patrol in international airspace over the South China Sea on Tuesday, according to the Pentagon. It is the latest incident in an increasingly tense situation in the disputed area.”
@VictorI, I think you’re right, the Egyptian authorities seem to have jumped the gun with their confirmation (hmm, I’m getting a tingly sense of deja vu…) and I suspect that we won’t have any proper sense of forward motion until daylight in the eastern Med.
@Ge Rijn, I share your sense of confusion about the radar reports, as well. I feel like nothing is certain about this incident right now except for the fact that the plane’s gone missing.
Those of you who’ve been around this site long enough to know about my controversial theorizing won’t be surprised to know that my eyebrows went up at the fact the FSB felt impelled to weigh in:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russias-fsb-claims-missing-egyptair-8005739
(If I was anyone but me I would have probably banned myself from the site for posting that last bit…)
@Jeff et al,
I share the skepticism, especially when considering the silent ~10 minutes prior to disappearance. But the link Jeff posted says two bodies were found. That kind of puts the brakes on any MH370-style disappearance.
Interesting point about the FSB Jeff. If you know you’re wearing a tinfoil hat, is it a tinfoil hat?
@Jeff
Long time lurker/reader… and I’d be completely over my head trying to weigh in on many of these topics, but I will say that Fred Burton from Stratfor had the same comment (on Twitter) as you about the FSB chiming in (so quickly) on MS804, so you’re not the only one raising their eyebrows.
Apologies all for following my own comment – but as of 20.45 GMT news sources in the UK and US seem to be providing contradictory reports whereby Egyptian sources say the wreckage has been located (near Greece) and Greek sources deny this
First the Greek find debris and Egyptair says it ain’t confirmed to be from the plane. Now the Greek say it isn’t debris from a plane and now Egypt says it is confirmed it IS.
huh??
first sentence should be: ‘first the Greek found debris and stated it was from the plane..