Since October, 2014, the search for MH370 has been guided by the assumption that sometime after it disappeared from Malaysian radar screens over the Malacca Strait it turned south and flew straight and fast into the Southern Indian Ocean on autopilot. The ATSB, which is conducting the search, has always been agnostic as to why exactly the plane would have done such a thing—maybe the pilots succumbed to hypoxia, or fire, or committed suicide—but the underlying assumption is that the plane would have flown its last few hours without control from a human being: that is to say, it flew as a “ghost ship” until it ran out of fuel shortly before 0:19 on the morning of March 8 and spiralled into the sea.
Analysis of the satcom signals received up to that point, combined with understanding of how 777s fly, indicate that a “ghost ship” plane should have wound up somewhere in a box 40 nautical miles wide and 400 miles long. As I’ve described earlier, the highest-probability areas of this box have already been searched and no aircraft wreckage has been found.
Previously, I’ve suggested this means that the plane did not fly to the current search area. On January 5, several members of the Independent group published an article on Duncan Steel’s website that agreed with this premise:
we now have a new piece of information. Simply: the aircraft has not been found within the priority search zone. If that continues to be the case then we must consider other possibilities which might conform to the known data (Inmarsat BTO and BFO values, and the fuel limits which can work either way, either setting a range limit or else requiring fuel to be burnt more quickly per unit distance) and lead to a revised end-point for MH370 that is outside of the search zone, and north of it (given that the fuel limitation prohibits end points further south).
The question I’d like to address today is whether the absence of MH370 from the current search area means that the plane COULDN’T have flown to its endpoint on autopilot alone. The reason such a suspicion might arise is that to reach an endpoint north of the current search box the plane would have to have flown a course that was either curving steadily to the left, or slowly decreasing in spead, or a little of both. But the 777 autopilot cannot be programmed to fly in a curve or to steadily decrease the thrust of the engines.
At first blush, then, the answer would be: no. MH370 couldn’t have flown to its endpoint without a human at the controls. That means that one of three things might have happened: 1) The perpetrator took the plane on a slow, curving course to the northeast; 2) The plane hit the 7th arc over the current search area but held it in a glide so that it wound up beyond the current search; or 3) The plane was commandeered by someone who managed to spoof the signal so that it wound up going north instead of south. The first two scenarios presupposes a suicidal pilot, most likely Zaharie; the third requires demonically clever perpetrators. Which of these scenarios is more likely should become more apparent if and when we get to see the results of the examination of the flaperon held by French criminal investigators since its discovery on the island of Réunion last July.
Coincidentally, this would also rule out “hero pilot” scenarios that have remained proven remarkably popular despite the vast weight of evidence against them.
However, the case is not closed.
Our own demonically clever Victor Iannello points out that there is a way to program a 777 autopilot such that it takes a curving path of variable speed. He points out that if MH370 loitered near the Andaman Sea for awhile, its autopilot could then be set to follow a magnetic heading as the plane descended at a steady, one-tenth of a degree flight path angle. As it descended with its engines at constant thrust, the increasing thickness of the air would have caused its speed to decrease. And the winds aloft, combined with the steadily changing magnetic declination, would have caused its path to curve. In such a scenario, the plane could have wound up more than 500 nm from the search box. (See image and table below).
Now, I should hasten to point out that Victor doesn’t think that this actually happened. He believes, as I do, that such a solution is incredibly arcane, and it’s hard to imagine why anyone would want to program a plane’s autopilot is such a way. But it’s not correct, technically, to say that a ghost-ship scenario is impossible.
By the way, several flaws with the suicidial-Zaharie scenario have been pointed out before, but I’d like to add a new one. If Zaharie wanted to disappear, he could have done so more safely and effectively by waiting until BUNTA (the boundary between Ho Chi Minh and Sanya AOR) or IKELA (at the boundary between Sanya and Hong Kong) to go dark and then head out over the open ocean. (You can see the route of the originally filed flight plan here.) From either spot he could avoid flying over land, with the risk of detection and interception: there’s a 200-mile wide gap between Taiwan and Luzon, and beyond that lies the open Pacific beyond. If you really want to vanish, there’s no beating the Marianas Trench.
To my mind, the only reason you’d head west at IGARI is because there was someplace specific you wanted to go.
@Brian
Please do not interpret this as mean. It is not intended to be mean. There is a ton of photographic and eye witness “evidence” to support “big foot” and flying saucers. At the end of day they are all pretty useless.
I simply will not accept this form of evidence.
@MH
“its amazing it didn’t collide with anything”
airspace is literally huge, you’d need intention and good flying skills to hit something, other aircrafts have lights on when it’s dark (except MH370) so even if he was close he would evade it
+ TCAS is working(one-way) even if you have your transponder off (although I’m not sure if it works if you turn off left AC bus)
@Dennis
I’m not touting it as “evidence”. Far from it. I was responding to Brock’s use of that word.
I’m just interested to know what the flotsam is, because it is quite different from stuff in the other 100 odd images, some of which is clearly identifiable as fishing debris. [. . and the authenticity can be verified from the EXIF data]
@StevenG – with my exposure to NavAid quality assurance, random and/or rogue flights are very at risk. No sure how could the one flying could see the terrain obstacles as well even see oncoming traffic soon enough.
@Oleksandr may I trouble you to link me to any report of any surface debris apparently photographed via satellite or aircraft in March 2014 having been retrieved? Martin Dolan informed me via email in 2014 that none had.
@DennisW, I 100% agree with you on #1 and #2, but #3 is trickier. People often do things that seem baffling to everyone else. Bellingcat has gathered substantial evidence that MH17 was shot down by a Russian regular army unit, which if true (verification or repudiation should come via the Dutch criminal investigation report later this year) indicates responsibility lies with the Russian heirarchy. What could have been their motive for that? I can think of some reasons, but none of them are very good. So let’s call whatever Russia’s motive was for MH17 “Motive X.” We know that it exists. We just don’t know what it was.
With regards to your point #3, it’s not a stretch to imagine that Motive X could also apply to MH370.
BTW, if we accept that Russia deliberately destroyed MH17, but don’t want to pin MH370 on them, then the only non-suicide explanation for MH370 is that some OTHER great power also by total coincidence also happened to destroy a Malaysian Airlines 777 within a four-month period. Wow, if you thought Powerball was a long shot…
@Brock @all
Knows anybody standard procedures of ATC in case plane is lost? I thought that after 9/11, when such thing happens, that everybody must take it as possibly big terrorist Tomahawk missile and do everything to locate it ASAP, at least if its near coast/land. So, first is to send fighters, but even quicker can(must??) be to call somebody with military satellites (and I dont mean chinese, yet) which I am almost sure can see anything weird by infra or radio waves if its moving or crashed, because of all hi-tech and online data about flights we have now even public. They all are our alies, Malaysians, Indonesians, Thai, etc. and I absolutelly dont think that they all have bad or incapable or irresponsible military, NO. Not to mention that just few days back when it happened, there was Cobra Gold 2014 exercises, first time including Chinese too… its their job, to be ready for everything or nothing, and such events are far more that shooting today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMWgLsR5X9g
@falken
H.Hussein said in an interview on 4Corners when i remember correctly :
H.H. : “We are not at war with anybody, so why sent up fighter jet´s ?
Women : “To look where the plane is ?”
H.H. : “We´re talking about a military operation here. Why should i sent up fighter jet´s ? What should they do ? We´re talking about an commercial aircraft with 239 civilians on board, half of them are chinese. Do you wanted we should shot down the aircraft ? When we had do this i´m on the worst position here.”
http://m.nationallawjournal.com/module/alm/app/nlj.do#!/article/1758397035
@Sajid. Thanks, your theory was well written and an enjoyable read, and it does tick a lot of boxes. Also if the plane did loiter for an hour, that would also fit in with your sequence of events.
@Ed
Yes, poetic theory. Unfortunately no trace of the aircraft has been found in the SIO primary search area. Not to mention that there is no evidence that Shah was homicidal. Nonsense like this does no good whatsoever.
Speculation starts :
After I broke my head for almost 2 years about what the login request of the SDU could mean at 18:25 UTC, i think it is most likely that the culprit wanted to communicate to convey a message….
No, he did not said a single word. He also did not provide a text message.
What was his message ?
The most likely explanation for the login request at 18:25 UTC was the previous isolation of the Left AC Bus and the reactivation thereafter. This was an event what was executed twice that night. The other one on 00:19 UTC. I think both events based on the exact same procedures which were executed on purpose by the culprit.
What message was told on the login request at 18:25 UTC ? Sure, the culprit did not said a single word and did not sent a textmessage. No, the login request from the SDU at 18:25 UTC itself was the message. The culprit owned knowledge that an login request from the SDU would produce a trace and he wanted to…..
The culprit wanted to said :
“I´m not crashed. I´m still in the air and i´m flying until i reached my destination. But where do you think i might be now, hah ? Wish i want to fly to the east or to the west or to the north or to the south ? Hah, you´ll never know because you have no idea who i am and what my intention is.The only thing i want you to know is i´m still in the air”.
End of message.
At this time, the culprit did not owned knowledge about hourly “Handshakes” or “Pings”. BTO´s ? BFO´s ? Ping-Rings ? What ? He didn´t know.
About 1 up to 14 minutes later MH370 made it´s final mayor turn to the south on an linear flightpath straight ahead to antarctica via an waypoint which doesn´t officially exist. The culprit used an waywoint which he had calculated many months before MH370 and this waypoint lay way beyond the performance limit of MH370. At the time he inserted his waypoint in the FMC and pressed the execute button the computer told him that this destination would be not reachable. At this moment he knew he is absolutely right.
The same game was also played nearly 6 hours later shortly before the left engine was running out of fuel.
No, the login request at 00:19 UTC is not based on a power interruption because both engines run out of fuel. It is based, as well as the login request at 18:25 UTC, on a previous isolation of the Left AC Bus and the reactivation thereafter.
The login request at 00:19 UTC was the second message and last message.
The culprit wanted to said :
“I have made it to the end and i want you to know about it. But where you believe i am now 7 hours after i dissapeared ? You will never find this aircraft, period”.
End of message.
No, the culprit had no knowledge of the BFO / BTO data. He could not imagine that the cleverest experts in the world would ever be able to define a search area on the basis of just 2 login request’s from the SDU. That would be absolutely impossible. What he didn´t know, it would be possible and all the experts are close to him on the trail to date.
Why can´t the ATSB not find the aircraft ?
I think the ATSB answered this question by his own statement on 3 December 2015.
The ATSB said :
“At 00:19 UTC, the aircraft had been airborne for 7 hours and 38 minutes and fuel exhaustion was probable. When the usable fuel in a tank is depleted, the corresponding engine would ‘flame-out’, spool-down and the electrical generator it was driving would drop off-line and no longer provide electrical power to its associated AC bus. Previous accident investigations show that when fuel exhaustion has occurred, typically one engine will flame-out before the other. In the case of MH370, due to the individual engine efficiency, it is likely that the right engine flamed-out first followed by the left engine. Given the amount of fuel uplifted in KL and historic fuel burn data for each engine, it is estimated that the left engine could have continued to run for up to 15 MINUTES after the right engine flamed-out.
(ATSB-Report 3 December 2015 on Page 8)
So, this makes it easy to come to the conclusion that the culprit isolated the Left AC Bus some minutes after the right engine flamed out. He could saw on his display in the cockpit when the right engine would flame out and he also saw how much fuel was avaible for the left engine to become knowledge when to trigger his last checklist of his life.
The timeline was as follows…..
00:04 UTC : MH370 Altitude : 35.000ft, Mach 0.84
00:05 UTC : Right Engine flames out
00:06 UTC : Culprit starts MH370 to descent ROC -3500ft/min
00:07 UTC : MH370 descent to 31.500ft
00:08 UTC : MH370 descent to 28.000ft. The culprit is now able to maintan this altitude on one single engine, as stated by the ATSB)
00:09 UTC : MH370 maintain 28.000ft
00:10 UTC : MH370 maintain 28.000ft
00:11 UTC : Complete Handshake (culprit didn´t know)
00:12 UTC : MH370 maintain 28.000ft
00:13 UTC : MH370 maintain 28.000ft
00:14 UTC : MH370 maintain 28.000ft
00:15 UTC : MH370 maintain 28.000ft
00:16 UTC : MH370 maintain 28.000ft
00:17 UTC : Culprit isolates the Left AC Bus. He saw on the display that the left engine has only fuel left for ~ 3 minutes. The culprit now starts his procedure for his last final message that would sent from the SDU only when it becomes online 2 minutes later.
00:18 UTC : Before the APU is powering up the culprit reactivates the Left AC Bus. In this 1 Minute, MH370 lost 2000ft of altitude to 26.000ft and glides descending. Power become available again through the left IDG. Left engine is running.
00:19 UTC : The SDU comes back online for an Login request. The final message from the culprit.
00:20 UTC : Left Engine flames out at 25.000ft, MH370 begins to glide.
00:21 UTC : IFE-Transmissions should trigger but they don´t. The Culprit deactivated the IFE after 18:40 UTC. At the same time the RAT deploys and the APU powers up and the culprit is back in control of the aircraft for his final glide starting at 25.000ft. He glides beyond the current search area. When he reached an altitude of ~ 2000ft he hits the nose down and crashed MH370 on an ~ 45° angle.
Yes, there were wreckage after the impact, most of it sank in the following 10 days before Australia starts his search operations but the flaperon made it to La Reunion.
Question : Why had the culprit isolated the Left AC Bus at 00:17 UTC when it was way easier to wait until the RAT deployed and the APU powered up ? This way, the SDU would also sent an Login-Request.
Answer : The culprit simply didn´t know or was unsure whether the SDU would sent an Login-Request after the RAT is deployed and the APU powered up after the second engine running out of fuel. He was only sure the SDU would come online again when he isolate the Left AC Bus and reactivate it thereafter.
I think the main goals for this culprit was :
1.) Be always very precise and follow your gameplan with zero tolerance. Minute by minute, all planned events on this flight must be execute very precisely.
2.) Be always in control until the very end. Nothing random should come into place what could destroy the gameplan and outcome created from an heavily underrated genius who don´t want to life anymore on this planet.
To end his life he decided many months before MH370 not to leave this planet without “Boom”. He was so obsessed of the idea to hijack an aircraft to give this world what it deserves, the biggest mystery of aviation history – And he would be the mastermind behind this operation where he payed for it with his own life and shamefully the life of 238 innocent persons.
Mr.Big meets Mr.Bigger who meets Mr.Biggest who meets him – The most underrated genius of all time and he wanted to disclose his brilliancy shamefully on flight MH370 and he did unfortunately.
All experts are right, the search area is right but it needs to extend to the south of the 7th arc. The culprit glided this aircraft under full control until the very end.
– A person who is filled with deep hatred knows no bounds for madness –
Speculations end
@Ed – thanks, and its a good point you made about the ‘loiter.’
@DennisW
Personally I don’t even like this theory. I’m a sucker for conspiracy – spoofing, Diego Garcia, Kazakhstan, Christmas Island… bring it on!
I never even gave it much consideration before. But a few things different contributors have said on here over time have swayed me. Zaharie personally attending the court hearing, Anwar Ibrahim being a relative, the fly-by of Penang, just a few examples.
When you come to think of it, a possible attack on a government symbol (Parliament etc), followed by a change of heart when faced with reality, is actually a very simple theory.
Captain Zaharie was no terrorist so he didn’t think like one. He was capable of remorse. Someone who had it all planned out in his head, yet when it came down to it – real life – when he saw his home island, thought of his relatives, his children, the families and children he could be taking with him, he simply couldn’t go ahead with it.
But he had killed 238 people already so he was no longer the innocent, disturbed pilot who everyone would feel sorry for if he decided to land back at KL or wherever.
Would you, or any other expert, have deduced what happened to Germanwings without 2 key ingredients – the black box and the doctor’s report? A co-pilot deciding to smash his aircraft into the side of a mountain 40 minutes into the flight. I don’t think many would work that one out!
On the face of it, you could argue there is a stronger case for Zaharie being a hijacker than you would have expected for Lubitz.
Bruce,
So far I haven’t seen any comprehensive “garbage” report, but rather many occasional publications in newspapers in March-April 2014. I don’t know how reliable these publications are.
For example here:
themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/four-orange-objects-spotted-in-search-for-mh370-says-report
Citation:
“A number of objects were retrieved by the HMAS Success and Haixun 01 on Saturday and had been examined and were believed to be not related to the missing plane.”
Another example:
ibtimes.com/floating-rubbish-hinders-search-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-draws-attention-oceans-trash-problem
Citation:
“…but every object ships recovered turned out to be fishing equipment and other trash.”
You can find a lot more on the objects that were initially spotted from the air, but then later recovered and/or confirmed as irrelevant to the aviation.
If MH370 isn’t in the current search area, it most likely ended up north of it on the arc. This was the working assumption in the preliminary report and has now been corroborated by Victor.
If this holds true, the only possible landing site is Cocos Islands. MH370 would have passed close to it around 21:41.
There are many reservations against the assertion that someone wanted to commit suicide. For example, it is counter-intuitive to think that anyone would allow the SDU to reboot if they wanted simply to disappear.
It is therefore possible that the ultimate goal was to land the plan on a remote island, with little military importance. There even was media speculation that the captain had practised something like this on his flight simulator, however without reference to a specific location other than a remote island in the far Indian ocean close to the presumed route.
If this was indeed the goal – which went horribly wrong, say, because of a passenger insurrection and concomitant loss of control/hypoxia – this could corroborate the assertion of a ghost flight scenario at some point between the southern turn and the missed approach.
Brian,
This is just on the topic of “Garbage in the Indian Ocean”, which was also discussed long time ago.
resourcerecovery.biz/opinion/difficulty-searching-mh370-giant-rubbish-patch
I am sure you can further ‘Google’ on this topic and find dozens of interesting aerial photos, some even colourful, like here:
m.smh.com.au/national/orange-objects–in-search-for-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-just-buoys-20140331-35u9v.html
Add http (colon)(slash)(slash)www(dot) in front of all the links.
There are a few exceptions, however, which could be relevant to MH370 in my opinion. One of them is a flat rectangular object that has not been recovered. The other one is a small bag with Malaysian Airlines logo found on Australian shore.
Sinux,
Re:
Is there a point on the 7th arc that is
– reachable before fuel exhaustion
Yes. See, for example, ATSB June 2014 report, endurance curve.
– at the right time
In AP mode – no. In other modes this isite possible.
– that would satisfy the BFO with a static plane
Do your mean -2 Hz?
@Nederland, Rumors that the FBI found evidence that Zaharie practiced landing in the southern Indian Ocean have never amounted to anything more than gossip. They cannot be use to either bolster or refute a theory.
There is a big problem with Cocos Island as a destination, which has often been expressed in this forum: the plane did not go there. If the pilot wanted to take the plane there, there would have been no known obstacle.
Finally, I think you’re missing the whole point of my post about the ghost flight: no, Victor has not corroborated the idea, rather he has shown that it is impossible except by a very particular arcane procedure. The evidence very strongly suggests that the plane was actively piloted by a human being right up to its final moments.
@jeffwise, Thanks, I appreciate your reply. Let me clarify briefly. While I do agree with you on media speculation, these reports appeared in a number of major broadsheets (I’m not referring to the earlier Diego Garcia speculation). While there is no known obstacle, this doesn’t mean there couldn’t have been any, and it is logical to assume that any hijacking attempt would have occasioned resistance by crew or passengers, which could explain the failed landing. It is also too early to dismiss the ghost plane scenario just now as a third of the area is yet to be searched. As the ATSB reiterated in its latest report, the evidence is inconsistent with a controlled ditching scenario. If the plane was in controlled glide beyond fuel exhaustion, one would therefore expect a greater amount of floating debris (other than wing parts).
@LouVilla
Nice speculation, just one technical problem :
@00:19 if the plane is in the area that is being searched currently, the only explanation for the BFO registered (182Hz) is that the plane was descending at a speed of at least 4500ft/min… (if v4 of yapff’s calculator I’m using is correct).
@Oleksandr
I meant the 182Hz as listed in last ATSB report. What -2Hz are you referring to? I sort of remember there was some discussion about it…
BTW using the calculator mentioned above, the only place the plane could have been if BFO 182Hz is for a static plane is … in western China… (around 32° latitude).
Is that correct?
Do you have a link of a more up to date calculator than v4 but without the solver (I tried V15 but can’t get it to work)?
Thanks in advance
Although we have data to a point just after first engine flame out, was there any investigation by the authorities to confirm it wasn’t flying again after last reboot signal. I speculate it may have landed and fuelled up then took off sometime later.
@Sajid UK
I’m with you…the lack of debris is the most telling attribute of the “End Game”. No trace of life or AC found….Only mystery.
If she is ever found, it’ll be by accident or while doing some other unrelated sea venture of some kind. Maybe even Mr. Ballard may get involved & try to put her to rest.
Been thrilling ya’ll,
Adios,
Chris in Dallas
@Sinux: You might recall that in my analysis of northern paths with a BFO spoof, I showed that the (first) BFO at 00:19 is consistent with a stationary aircraft on the northern arc. The explanation proposed was that the satellite inclination parameters that were altered to change the BFO signature in order to mislead investigators would be reset to their original values just before log-on at 00:19 as the System Table is read by the AES.
http://jeffwise.net/2015/05/17/guest-post-northern-routes-and-burst-frequency-offset-for-mh370/
@jeffwise
“If the pilot wanted to take the plane there, there would have been no known obstacle.”
there are no PAL lights on the runway so he would have to wait for hours until daylight… which comes a bit earlier on CI so that could be another reason why he would head to CI
@VictorI
I do remember, vaguely though. I’ll read it again over the weekend.
How would you explain the power interruptions in your spoof scenario?
I was trying to see if a successful ditching could match the data. It seems it doesn’t. unless there is a lake on the northern part of 7th arc… or an asian version of the hudson 🙂
@sinux – there are a few reservoirs near Kuqa Qiuci however there are some impressively large lakes near Almaty, Kz. ie: Issyk Kul,Lake Balkhash, and near to fit JeffW’s scenario the Aral Sea. But the reboot might be because the mountains shadowed the signal.
@sinux: There is a misconception that the log-on at 18:25 was definitely from a power interruption. We know that there was no log-off recorded when the link to the SATCOM was lost and later there was a log-on at 18:25. The interruption in the link could have been caused by many factors beyond a power interruption, including a software reboot, RF jamming, or the satellite was in the keyhole of the antenna pattern.
For the log-on at 00:19, if the plane landed, the pilot might have cut-off fuel to the engines before starting the APU. (Standard procedure is for the pilot not flying to start the APU after landing.) Upon shutdown of both engines, the APU would automatically start. If it was manually stopped minutes later, the signaling would exhibit what was recorded in the satellite communication logs.
“To my mind, the only reason you’d head west at IGARI is because there was someplace specific you wanted to go.”
If the plane was diverted by some crew member, they were likely aware of the poor radar coverage (as recently reported in the Bayesian method book) and handling of standard operating procedures by their home country.
If so, why not fly over Butterworth military base in Penang to embarrass the government?
After two years gone now the general question breaks down to two scenarios:
1) SIO Scenario – with very dim hopes of ever finding evidence to prove it
2) The “007-Commando-Scenario” – which was dismissed by nearly everybody early on, but becomes more and more credible, since the abscence of evidence in the SIO becomes more and more significant every day.
From the early days there was very good and hard evidence, that a well prepared, premeditated and professionally executed act took place that led to the disappearance.
The evidence for it is:
a) belated reaction of HCM ATC by 19 minutes
b) plain wrong first information by MAS HQ about the wherabouts of MH370 (Cambodia)
c) plain wrong second information by MAS HQ
about whereabouts (east coast of Vietnam)
d) non-identification of rogue plane – even if aproaching Butterworth RMAF base
e) plain wrong radar information that break down now to only one faint last radar contact (18:22)
f) the miracle SDU: incidentally only 3 minutes after last radar contact and a technical equipment that failed badly, but somehow mirculously regenerated after an hour or so to start the dubious INMARSAT pings
g) while the key member of the SAT-Team dies in a critical moment
Well , whoever got his sound mind, would such a person believe in the freak Scenario SIO or would one better believe in a sort of commando action, for which special forces in many countries are being trained all day?
I do admit, that we dont have many clues about the target and the objectives of a special forces operation. But the signature is there. The writing is on the wall. I am quite sure, that someone wanted technology and people, at least for blackmail or sale to rogue sponsors.
And after successfull ditching into a lake some local aborigines cut the aircraft into small pieces and threw them back to where it came from – Gods must be crazy.
Sinux,
-2 Hz is the last recorded BFO value.
You can use any version of Yap’s calculators, I think starting from V2. Also I can share my matlab scripts if this helps.
@Oleksandr – if the theory it sank in the SIO it could also sink in a lake pending salianity.
@Oleksandr
Back in the days before the flarperon turned up I was postulating that debris would be found on Madagascar or the East coast of Africa based on where I thought the plane went down and the known Thermohaline Circulation. A friend (who had spent time in the Peace Corp near the East coast of Africa) told me that the half life of any debris washed up there is less than a day. It almost immediately becomes a part of a native structure or a piece of furniture. No thought would be given to the origin of the debris.
The reason for this comment is to point that we might be expecting too much relative to finding debris. Based on where it may wash up, there is not a big chance for feedback to occur. Your aborigine reference triggered the thought.
As a parting comment, I no longer have any friends in the Peace Corp. They have all become coin-operated bozos.
@LouVilla
it seems your brainstorming went to far too, but I still think that the unanswered satcom calls was some kind of comm/sync, where first reset sliding expiration timer and pilots had since then quite exact playfield with houry windows to maneuvre anything they want and to affect BFO somehow at ping times; sure, speculations too
Brian,
Here is a batch of images appeared early days including a floating rectangular object – suspected flaperon:
bbc.com/news/world-asia-26662641
MH,
Can you please explain how the flaperon travelled from a lake in Mongolia to Reunion Island?
@Oleksandr – given later comments by other contributors, likely it didn’t have a watery landing anywhere. Seems like there was a normal engine shutdown sequence.
@MH
That is right. That notion also plays into the scenario (which I do not happen to endorse) that the flaperon was removed from 9M-MR0, tethered in the ocean somewhere, and then planted on Reunion.
@DennisW – maybe it was planted just to keep alive the “searching parties” continued “contribution$” to searching in the SIO.
@Oleksandr
The only image of interest there is the “possible flaperon” photograph, but it was never found in a ssurface search. I’ve no interest in satellite images.
Anything 24M long and rectangular is clearly not part of a B777.
Brock – I’m covered in tar because like you I haven’t fully binned the Maldives as yet. I used the term “Maldivian” because you tend to get pilloried for bringing it up, and the rehashing of old photo’s by intelligent and qualified people pointed to a sort of MH370 fatigue/stress – to me. And I don’t enjoy seeing research warriors clutching at straws.
A very hardened defense/foreign affairs writer I know would not be drawn on MH370 from the beginning even when it offered abundant intrigue. He said that by the time it was all done 90% of what is considered fact will turn out to be rubbish. Even now no one will guarantee the data, no one knows just what happened with the reboot, or what happened on the plane. I was horrified to see the rebooted SDU veering south off the chart knowing that stuff was being manipulated on that plane, but to the technician it was no big deal and there was high confidence that all was well with the numbers. Satellite dunces like me have to go with the advice of career experts but I sense some of them are getting uncomfortable and that vindication is turning into an ordeal. I will stay cautious about the rings until we find solid evidence of an SIO crash.
Brian – Sincerely, keep up the efforts.
Dennis – yes, we all knew it was potentially open-ended but I reckon that is what is wearing minds down. I haven’t invested anything like the IG have in terms of time, expertise and money but looking back I could have achieved other things in this period of intense distraction and I think I’m doing well compared to some.
@Matty
It is too bad that Gary Larson has retired. He could capture the essence of our MH370 activity in a cleverly constructed Far Side cartoon.
With the likely proper engine spooling down, 7th arc and other known likeynesses … Maybe it’s time to put these down to prioritize these for further analysis to determine further high priority clues.
just to add, With my last post and the theme of Ruling out a Ghost-ship end game .. I’d say this is likely.
Brian,
That is what I wrote. The white-gray object in section #9 of BBC report looks like the flaperon. It was never recovered. There are a lot of other aerial (not satellite) photos, which either were confirmed irrelevant, or were never recovered. There is a courious photo “HMAS Success” crew investigating a “plume” of seaweed a bit earlier identified as an object from the air. Indeed, there was no need to retrieve seaweed from the water for further investigation.
Generally 24m-long object seen in the satellite image could also be a piece of the fuselage or wing, but most likely it was just whitecapping.
In summary, aerial photos were as useless as satellite images in this case.
Except these two pieces I already mentioned, I haven’t seen anything worth of discussion. Simply because these objects could be anything: whitecapping, seaweed, fishing equipment, buoys, wooden palettes from ships, various floating rubbish…
@Matty – Perth
“I’m covered in tar because like you I haven’t fully binned the Maldives as yet.”
Feel free to bin it, just so many facts against it. No plausible motivation, flaperon would’ve come to Reunion lot earlier, far from the arc etc. etc.
This paper, quoted in the text above, suggests that MH370 may have ended further north on the arc rather than outside of the width of the current search area, should the plane not be found there. It discusses various outcomes of different autopilot modes. Unless the method is fundamentally flawed (and why should it?), it is therefore not necessary to assume that MH370 was under control until final impact. Rather it is possible, for example, that it turned into a ghost flight after some initial manoeuvring on the southern route. Nor is it necessary to assume that MH370 was in controlled glide beyond fuel exhaustion, if the search does not yield any results. The further north we get on the arc, the closer would MH370 have passed Cocos Islands.
http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/2152
Regarding the Maldives, it should be sufficiently known by now that the alleged plane was seen long after MH370 had exhausted its fuel. Even if the satellite data are fundamentally flawed, that plane could not have been MH370.
You can find a good discussion of this sighting here:
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/1521_lemonde.pdf
I mis another, and imo the most likely option: option 4.
The plane was manually flown, by remote control. This means it could have flown any path roughly going south, as long as it hits all arcs.
@all
Time is not your friend in problem solving or a criminal investigation. The longer a solution evades us, the less likely it is that a solution will be found. I truly believe the search for MH370 was badly mismanaged. Early on Victor and I debated the wisdom of even starting an acoustic search based on the “evidence” at hand. I think I was unkind (as I am sometimes prone to be) by suggesting that spending upwards of $100M based on the spreadsheets of a bunch of geeks was shear insanity (I do regard myself as geek, BTW). My point then was that there was a fundamental disconnect between the managers and the analysts. The analysts did not adequately convey the uncertainties in their analytics, and the managers were incapable of assessing those uncertainties for themselves.
There was no reason to start a search prematurely. It was no longer a case of search and rescue where time is often a critical element. Had the search been delayed until physical evidence was found, I believe events would have evolved much differently. Now we are expanding our analytical horizons when the funding profile is winding down. It is a classic case of too late with too little.