Twenty-three minutes after takeoff this past Saturday, shortly after reaching an altitude of 31,000 feet over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, an Airbus A321 flying as Metrojet Flight 9268 abruptly plummeted and crashed, killing all 224 passengers and crew. The suddenness of the loss of communications, the rapidity with which the plane descended, and the size of the area across which the wreckage was scattered indicate that the plane experienced a sudden, catastrophic structural failure at high altitude. But what does that tell us in practical terms?
Given Russian aviation’s rather poor reputation for maintenance, one immediately obvious possibility was that the plane had suffered a severe malfunction. Receiving particular scrutiny was the fact that in 2001 the aircraft’s tail had been repaired after being damaged in a rough landing. This suggested a possible parallel with China Airlines Flight 611, which suffered a catastrophic decompression 20 minutes after taking off from Taipei in 2002. In that case, too, the aircraft’s tail had been fixed after a rough landing years before. When the faulty repair job failed, the airplane was ripped apart with such force that the pilots had no time to make a Mayday call.
Parallels might also be seen with TWA 800, which crashed off the coast of Long Island in 1996. In that case, NTSB investigators concluded that the plane had exploded after faulty wiring caused fumes in a fuel tank to explode, leaving the plane’s pilots no time to radio for help or try to steer the plane to safety.
On Saturday, the New York Times published a story on the Metrojet tragedy that noted that “the fuel tank on one of its planes exploded before departure from the Siberian city of Surgut in 2011, and the ensuing fire killed three people.” That makes it sound like Metrojet planes have a history of exploding fuel tanks, but that’s not really the case: What actually happened in the Surgut incident is that one of the plane’s engines first caught fire, and that fire subsequently caused the fuel tank to explode some minutes later. That is to say, fire preceded explosion, not vice versa. An engine catching fire in flight can be swiftly catastrophic — such an event downed Air France Flight 4590 in 2000 and effectively ended the Concorde’s career — but not swiftly enough to prevent a distress call.
It’s worth noting, too, that in the wake of TWA 800 industry-wide design changes were made to fix the problem, and no similar accidents have occurred in the two decades since.
If mechanical failure did not bring down Metrojet 9268, the other possibility is malice.
Apart from a handful of flights like TWA 800 and China Airlines Flight 611, planes that have blown up in air have done so as a result of either being blown up by a bomb carried onboard or after having been hit by a missile. A well-known example of the former would be Pan Am Flight 103, which was downed by a Libyan bomb over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988. An example of the latter would be Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was destroyed by a Russian-made Buk surface-to-air missile system while flying at 33,000 feet over rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine.
Given Russia’s recent entanglement in the chaos of Syria, there is no shortage of factions that would be happy to cause it harm, not least ISIS, which in the immediate aftermath of the downing issued a statement declaring, “The fighters of the Islamic State were able to down a Russian plane over Sinai province that was carrying over 220 Russian crusaders.”
A report on the MH17 accident released last month by the Dutch Safety Board specifically cited Sinai as an area in which commercial airline routes might be in danger of attack from the ground. The possibility that a missile strike is to blame has been tacitly acknowledged by several airlines: Emirates, Lufthansa, and Air France have all rerouted their flights away from Sinai.
The thing is, it’s pretty hard to shoot down an airliner at cruise altitude. When it came to grief, Metrojet 9268 was flying six miles above the ground, well out of range of the shoulder-filed anti-aircraft missiles that have proliferated among the region’s various ethno-religious factions. To reach a target that high requires a more sophisticated type of weapon — at a minimum, a vehicle-mounted medium-range surface-to-air missile like Russia’s Buk or the U.S.-made Patriot. Such systems reach altitudes of more than 80,000 feet.
Not many players possess such weapons, however. Not only are they expensive — a Patriot missile costs $2 million to $3 million — but they are so manifestly dangerous that the great powers have been very prudent about distributing them to their proxy fighters. For all the material that ISIS has liberated from the U.S.-supplied Iraqi Army, Patriot missiles are not among them. The Dutch Safety Board report concluded that “there are no indications that point to the presence of medium or long-range surface-to-air missiles.”
Bombs, on the other hand, are easy to obtain. Less than a pound of explosives smuggled into the baggage hold is enough to provide a fatal blast. (Pan Am was destroyed by just 11 ounces of Semtex.) And there is certainly no shortage of motivated parties who might want to punish Russia for its recent decision to commit air and ground forces to the Syrian civil war. The drawback to a bomb, of course, is that they can be thwarted by security measures. One would expect, given the volatility of the region, that airport security in Sharm El-Sheikh would be tight. But in the past year several breaches have been reported.
In the immediate aftermath of an air tragedy it’s often difficult to separate fact from rumor, and Metrojet 9268 has been no exception, with various Russian and Egyptian officials making conflicting claims. Monday afternoon, however, came what seems like a significant development:
A senior defense official told NBC News late Monday that an American infrared satellite detected a heat flash at the same time and in the same vicinity over the Sinai where the Russian passenger plane crashed. According to the official, U.S. intelligence analysts believe it could have been some kind of explosion on the aircraft itself, either a fuel tank or a bomb, but that there’s no indication that a surface-to-air missile brought the plane down.
That same infrared satellite would have been able to track the heat trail of a missile from the ground.
If the report is true, then a Lockerbie-type scenario becomes overwhelmingly the most probable.
That being the case, Metrojet 9268 could well be seen as chickens coming home to roost for Russian president Vladimir Putin, who in the past has shown staggering indifference to civilian casualties. He is widely viewed as being responsible for the bombings of two Moscow apartment blocks in 1999, which killed 300 people and were used to provide pretext for the Second Chechen War. More to the point, he is widely viewed as bearing responsibility for the downing of MH17. If we have entered an era in which civilian airliners have become fair game, no one is more responsible than he.
Note: this story originally appeared in New York magazine.
Sajid UK
“It would certainly help if imams and Islamic religious leaders raised their voices against the so-called IS, though this whole mess is far more complicated for a single group to resolve”
My point exactly. This is the perfect time in history for a mixed military effort to eliminate “IT”. Sure…logistically it’ll be a mess for awhile. But given a year with the full commitment of the nations involved we could form a true international tour de force bent on eliminating radical cults that are bent on the world subscribing to their perverted religious ideologies.
@ALL
We can all agree on this, 3 commercial planes with 761 lives were eradicated from the sky 3 times within 20 months and will forever be connected by that.
The cause of MH370’s demise lives in subterfuge guarded by a hierarchy and some intense precarious propagandist peddling. MH17 and Metrojet most likely the victims of renegade ideologies.
There is enough wiggle room in Annex 13 for a foundation of corruption if needed. This lack of faith scenario mentioned is the result of MH370 and the blatantly callous approach to releasing information, officially, nok or otherwise requested.
Last week I challenged myself to engage at least 10 people a week in discussion of the 3 tragedies and my incessant emails continue. This is an exceptionally unprecedented time, where commercial planes are blown from the sky, but it does unite us in this world and could be seen as an advantageous opportunity.
Disregard the “3 times”, should proof first
My dear Chris,
“No I don’t see it as pragmatic AT ALL. The entire world knows what IT is capable of, unless living under an ancient ruin or Mosque that IT has destroyed. And I still find it rather peculiar that you still define IT as Muslim at all. Slaughtering women & children that don’t convert, broadcast be-headings, burning people alive & broadcasting it, crucifixions, the atrocities go on & on. Why not as Muslim’s say before the world. “This does not represent the Muslim faith!” Why not put out something as slick as their recruiting videos, but in reverse, shaming IT! Denouncing them in social media. Denounce them in protest form across Europe. Denounce them without alienating the young. But do something..something that even God fearing Christians or pragmatists such as myself, would respect & admire.”
Did I not mention about a group of British muslims youth producing a short video that denouncing IT as muslim and broadcasted by British Broadcast Corporation (a national television in UK)? I believe the title was “Not in my name!”. You can go here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAxIOC8Zisc.
Do you know Hamza Yusuf a very prominent American revert who is also a scholar of Islam? He travels around many muslim countries including middle east to give talks about IT or at least that has something to do with IT. No? Yusuf Estes, then? Yusuf Estes (also a muslim revert) is another scholar and regularly travels around muslim countries and even Japan to give talks about Islam and also denouncing IT. And every head of muslim nation are already denouncing IT on their local national television. But CNN, FoxNews, CNBC would not cover it would they? Because it has no rating/news value?!
“Again…I’ll ask you. What is the mass appeal? Why would any sane person/Muslim join? And with only SOME of the atrocities listed above, you coin them as over zealous? Really? What can we count on when they do become zealous?”
Well if they join IT then actually they ARE insane! Do you know of another word much stronger and better than overzealous?! Well, I assure you the authorities in muslim nations are cracking down on prospective member of IT. They are monitoring the social media for any potential threat and guarding carefully the airports and borders so as to prevent their citizens from leaving to join IT. If you think this is not enough, should we just block the Internet altogether or just the social media?! I forgot, facebook and twitter are American-based; have you tried complaining to them about the bad contents and report the abuse of their sites by IT?! Have you tried that?!
“Air strikes alone won’t get it done Lehmin. We’ll have to have ground troops & I hope the world can take back what IT has taken from the Middle-East, and if not careful, what the African continent has to offer as well”
The US messed up and the muslims have to clean up their mess! Virtually every American citizen possesses a gun or two. And every second there will be a couple die of gunshots! No wonder the Americans are war-monger! I think the Americans are much crazier than IT.
It is unfortunate, Chris, that you decide to become one of those who are adamant on finding faults in muslim.
@Susie Crowe
MH-370 will remain the single greatest aviation mystery of all time. Sadly b/c it was planned & orchestrated by Z. The disappearance & lack of evidence proves it, was Whether you a agree or disagree is your opinion respectfully.
MH-17 was an intentional shoot down. Had to be given the airspace & on going commercial flights at the time. However, it’s my feeling that MAS wasn’t singled out, but sadly, a victim of murderous circumstance…probably by drunken Russian separatists. (MAS has to be the most unfortunate airline of all time.)
Metrojet Flight 9268 is a floating political bomb in it’s own right. SO important from a criminal stand point that ISIS/Daesh/IT rushes in to claim it, whether they planned it or not. THIS point in & of it’s own makes it clear what they are made of.
Now…..you mentioned “but it does unite us in this world and could be seen as an advantageous opportunity.
You couldn’t be more right & I hope that the powers that be realize what a fine opportunity we could face as a world community in dealing with these ruthless bastards. In as much, while they take their opportunity in history to ruin Islam, lives, & world heritage sites. WE as a combined coalition should lay hold of a world together eradicating this scourge affecting humanity.
Lehmin,
My all observing Muslim supporter of Islam and all that is good, Sincerely.
Please Lehmin,
I, by no means look to fault Muslim’s nor Islam. Indeed I nearly screamed from mountain high that IT is not Muslim nor has anything to do with religion. It is a criminal CULT, disguised as Islam, don’t you see that??? IT is no different than Charles Manson converting young minds to murder for him for his own perverted reasons. Luring young Muslim’s into a world of depravity, hate & sorrow while promising rewards from the written word. Seducing them with arms, money, sex & drugs. A Saudi Prince was busted with two ton’s of speed (Captagon) last week!!! The weapon & drug of choice of IT. Please realize that I’ve lived in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Greece & traveled to many other countries. This is what drives me about IT. It is destroying the mere ignorant concepts of Islam & Muslim’s. This is why I’ve been exposing the point WHY anyone would include them in the Muslim religion in any shape, form or fashion. Why give them the Pleasure to identify themselves or hold any judicial court as Muslim’s before the world. They are all forsaken souls with a special place in hell.
With all the sincerity from a good ol’ white boy in Dallas, trying to cure the ignorance in Texas regarding this very matter.
Chris in Dallas – Yep, The Saudi’s are cherry ripe for a tilt from IS, plenty of kindling there too. The way they have gone about their operations in Yemen against the Iranian backed Houthi’s around the border says it all. Basically embarrassed by a bunch of guys in sandals. If it can’t be done from the seat of an F-15 then they can’t do it. No will to fight. That joint is going under – my tip.
Hey Matty,
How ya been?
Not if the Bush family has any thing to do with it. Too many vested oily ventures to ignore. The House of Saud & the Bush family is very close, oil rivers run deep along with oily friendships.
But…you’re right. Even if a coalition was formed they’re wouldn’t be any Saudi’s hitting the dunes to turn ISIS around. Only foreigners willing to take orders for the sake of their oil. I still wouldn’t be a bit surprised to find out how many Saudi saw bucks have made it into the ISIS coffers. And the Saudi prince getting busted in Lebanon with two tons of speed. (Guess he’ll get house arrest after paying the Lebanese off) ISIS thrives on that S*it.
We’re about to witness a very special time in the middle-east. The U.S., Russia, Syrians from two directions, Kurd’s, Turks, Iranians Saudi’s & the Iraqi’s. Not to mention Jordan, Kuwait, UAE…maybe Bahrain & Qatar. Yes…the perfect time in history to destroy ISIS/IT… God Willing
My dear Chris,
Thank you for your concern for the well-being of muslims and Islam.
“This is why I’ve been exposing the point WHY anyone would include them in the Muslim religion in any shape, form or fashion. Why give them the Pleasure to identify themselves or hold any judicial court as Muslim’s before the world.”
According to Iraq Body Count
Organization (ibc.org), over 10,000 civilian (including children) died over the duration of the invasion and occupation of Iraq by US and UK between 2003-2005. 30% died during the invasion phase before 1 May 2003. 11,351 died in the second year post-invasion. Of the number, 64% was caused by US-led airstrike. While overall US-led forces have killed 37% civilians. Speaking at the launch of the report in London on 19 July 2005, Professor John Sloboda, FBA, one of the report’s authors said:
“The ever-mounting Iraqi death toll is the forgotten cost of the decision to go to war in Iraq. On average, 34 ordinary Iraqis have met violent deaths every day since the invasion of March 2003. Our data show that no sector of Iraqi society has escaped. We sincerely hope that this research will help to inform decision-makers around the world about the real needs of the Iraqi people as they struggle to rebuild their country. It remains a matter of the gravest concern that, nearly two and half years on, neither the US nor the UK governments have begun to systematically measure the impact of their actions in terms of human lives destroyed.”
These tragedies are the outcome of what George W Bush characterised in his London speech of November 20th, 2003, as a “noble mission” to rid the world of terrorists!
It was also reported that George W. Bush was a born-again Christian. During a peace-talk between the Palestinian delegate and Israel, he was reported to have said that god told him to attack Afghanistan and Iraq. He and Tony Blair was even reported to have prayed together at Bush Jr ranch at Crawford Texas immediately before the invasion.
On 22 July 2011, Anders Behring Breivik killed eight people by setting off a van bomb amid the Government quarter Regjeringskvartalet in Oslo, then shot dead 69 participants of a Workers’ Youth League (AUF) summer camp on the island of Utøya. He also claimed to be 100% Christian!
I still remember vividly a major incident 22 years ago in July 1993 in Waco, Texas. A whole Davidian group (a branch of Christianity) burned to death during FTA raid on their premises. The leader, David Walsh, claimed to be a prophet and even committed sexual intercourse with an underage!
Do you consider all of these people I just mentioned to be christian?! Do they represent the teaching of Christianity?! I did not hear the rest of the christian world denouncing them as not representing Christianity nor even a christian!
Well, if CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC stop promoting IT, and US government tell Facebook and Twitter to block IT member accounts, I am sure soon or later IT will be forgotten
when they no longer received the attention from young muslims.
Regarding your question of “WHY anyone would include them in the Muslim religion in any shape, form or fashion. Why give them the Pleasure to identify themselves or hold any judicial court as Muslim’s before the world.” WHY do you not ask that ‘anyone’ (whoever that person(s) you are refering to) the question?! I am sure I have made myself clear by repeatedly saying that muslims all around the world already denouncing IT as not representing Islam and distancing themselves from IT.
Welcome Back and Well said Lehmin,
Yeah…George Bush is an idiot. I lost a good job telling the sister of the man I once worked for the same thing. Invading Iraq was the single most costly BOONDOGGLE war both in human life and shear waste!! Not counting crippling wounds on both sides that will hinder people for the rest of their lives. And of course the money. Esos Christos…How many budgets could we have balanced using the war chest of Bush Jr.
I was for the Afgan war. But argued incessantly with co-workers & anyone who would listen about how insane it was to invade Iraq. Especially when it was based on a pack of lies about weapons of mass destruction. I have said on many occasions discussing Iraq, especially on Iraq’s first voting day.”WOW…we should all feel good about ourselves. Iraq just had a democratic election though the barrel’s of our guns” We actually went half way around the world to imposed our will on a sovereign nation, damn near destroyed their capital, dismissed their ENTIRE military, and for what???!!! Absolutely nothing!! Not one bit, no tiny shred of good came out of the invasion of Iraq. And what was REALLY disturbing, when folks like myself spoke defiantly about the war, we were looked upon like enemies of the state who don’t support their Gov’t or their military.
I squarely lay the Blame on the Bush administration for the emergence of ISIS/IT. We should already have troops there kicking the s*it out of them since it was American policy that created the nightmare from hell. But that’s what happens when you dismiss an entire military with some just reaching retirement age. Real Nice, now that’s think’in.
When we went into Baghdad, we were watching the news at work, and Saddam’s statue being toppled & people were celebrating, one of the other employee’s asked me. “So..what do you think now Chris?” I told them..We’ll be there 10-11 years, it hasn’t even begun yet. And they looked at me like I had 10 heads!! HUH? what do you mean? I told them, You can’t militarily garrison a country the size of Texas in the Middle-East! It would take a half a million soldiers. Then what do you have?? A full blown F-ing police state, but they will have the right to vote!! Right!! It wasn’t long after that I was fired for coming in late, but I knew I was the unpatriotic weirdo that graduated high school in Tehran, Iran & was married to a Greek from Athens, might as well have been an immigrant myself as far as that redneck crowd went.
No I don’t consider such insane individuals Christians. Even though David Koresh was a false Christian prophet, ignorant people went willingly to live & listen to his teachings. And there was plenty of fallout regarding the Waco compound assault. Lawsuit’s, advocacy groups, federal investigations that lasted for years.
Again Lehmin, I wasn’t, nor did I mean to knock Islam. I think it a crime that they call themselves Islamic State. It’s an oxymoron brought on by morons.
I was giving careful thought of doing a documentary about the Muslim faith in North Texas. What are their concerns regarding their neighborhoods? How many generations has your family been here? Politics’s, the future, etc.
Well… Thanks for sharing & I’ll choose my words more carefully from now on when addressing Muslim contributors.
Adios,
Chris
I know this doesn’t fit with the current topic, but there is no Metrojet 9268 news anyway.
BBC article: “MH370: New satellite plane tracking system agreed”
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34793274
@the technical experts here: Is this going to be sufficient to ensure tracking of aircraft in real-time? Will it be vulnerable to hacking/spoofing or be able to be turned off by determined hijackers? Is this just a system to be used when current ATC procedures/screens show an aircraft has gone missing? (Sorry about my ignorance on all this).
@AM2 Who know what topic even is anymore but always nice to hear from you.
@all
My instinct is no way Zaharie’s the culprit. Remember, someone screwed the pooch largely here, without all the ATC comm debacle and supposed primary radar absence the story is quite different.
No, the time for MH370 logic has passed, nothing ever came together as it should and pretending the information isn’t there is getting old. Logic constantly squeezed by too many bizarre aspects, this one’s a doozy and we have been played for fools.
Formal, official requests are ignored, the offer of great intellect disregarded (I agree Dennis, as it should be in and of itself but not in this sh**storm), family members shunned and the beat goes on.
This story has feet as long as we have the determination, it needs a proper ending and those 30+ kids have a right to know how their parent(s) died.
There is no way the facts aren’t there, eventually someone is going to break, or something will rear it’s ugly head and we all need to be involved until it happens.
Sorry about the idioms, lazy writing.
@AM2
As for tracking. The piece seems to contradict it’s self, if not confusing.
“This will allow “real-time tracking of aircraft anywhere in the world,” said Francois Rancy, head of the ITU’s Radio communication Bureau.”
Then….The UN’s aviation arm, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), has set a November 2016 deadline for adopting new tracking guidelines.
“These will include aircraft sending their position at least every 15 minutes, or more in case of emergency, reported Reuters.”
Every 15 min’s, to me isn’t real time., but looks to be a constant system in concert with current ATC systems & current SOP’s.
As far as spoofing & hacking. Most likely, given the latest hacks and data breaches. It’s become a true sporting event in the Geekdom.
@Susie Crowe
As you say. A Real Doozy.
I wouldn’t say that it’s time has passed, rather it’s relaxed. Waiting for the next sign of hope, another angle checked.
The brightest aviation minds have given it their best, & will continue to do so, while the most sophisticated ocean going search vessels are mapping the SIO narrowing down her resting place.
Keep the Faith.
Sound familiar? Money trumps truth…my favorite,
“Another reason investigative teams strive for rapid disclosure in a plane crash”
Ah…That explains the rapid pace of those MH370 “investigative teams”
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ambiguity-shrouds-russian-plane-crash-investigation-1447255114
Congratulations to our host for his accolade,
Amazon’s best Kindle single of 2015
“The Plane That Wan’t There” Jeff Wise
Well done Jeff!
Also many thanks for providing this opportunity to share
@AM2
ADS-B can be disabled from the cockpit :
Quote from B777 manual :
“Control of the system and its status is accessed on the ADS page from the
MANAGER main menu. ADS ARM enables ADS function, ADS OFF inhibits ADS
function, and ADS EMERGENCY provides more frequent position reports.”
On top of that if the GPS signal is spoofed, ADS-B will transmit the wrong position so it won’t help in that case (see my last posts on previous thread).
Available evidence suggests the pilot making the plane dissapear. There is no way for a malfunction/catastrophic event to let the plane dissapear like this.
@Susie Crowe Thank you! And thanks again to you and everyone in the community here who has helped move understanding of this incident forward, against formidable headwinds of obfuscation and misinformation.
@IR907, you seem to be overlooking a third major possibility.
Or combination of two.
IR1907,
Re: “Available evidence suggests the pilot making the plane dissapear”.
What evidence?
@Jeff congrats to your best kindle single too and
#EarthToParis 🙂
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/earthtoparis-this-is-about-all-of-us/
@all
I read something a while back that has stuck with me, did not note the source so no quotes
Malaysian NATCC share a building with military ATC, the two are symbiotic and any disconnect is immediately apparent.
In the IR it says; “At approximately 5 nautical miles East of IGARI, the radar label started to coast i.e. began to fade and eventually dropped from the KL ATCC screen. Based on queries from HCM ATCC, subsequent attempts to establish contact with MH370 were futile and failure to obtain a position report from various sources resulted in the Kuala Lumpur Aeronautical Rescue Coordination Centre (KL ARCC) being activated at 5:30AM”
If you were none the wiser, reading this for the first time and disregarded the 5:30AM, what would be your estimate (educated or not) of this timeline? Seriously be honest here, would you even come close to 5 1/2 hours Can’t 5 1/2 hours be considered culpable?
Have we ever heard a definitive explanation from the guys at ATCC that ASSUMED where their plane was and thought it acceptable, what’s up with that? Your plane fails to check in for almost 2 hours and your reassurance comes not from real time but a flight app?
And what of this “symbiotic” relationship, wouldn’t it streamline this process considerably? Razak, when asked why there was no “scramble”, displayed a smug grin, shrugged and said “What were we to do THEN shoot the plane down?” As if this extraordinary time lapse was somehow justified because the only option was to fire a missle, so better to let the darn thing fly until it can’t anymore?
In conclusion, that area of the Indian Ocean, the never never land, one of the remotest places on earth, almost to the end of the world, vastness beyond comprehension….is not quite the alien planet the kool-aid drinkers believe. Do a little research on what hangs out there and don’t forget, if you tow the line (oops) MH370 flew during 2 hours of daylight.
@IR1907
Are you saying A pilot or THE pilot?
Here is a curiosity – dont’ know if it means anything. At 16:26 UT, just prior to pushback, the crew of MH370 told Lumpur Delivery “… we are ready requesting flight level three five zero [350] to Beijing.” However, according to Factual Information, the filed flight plan (Figure 1.1D) showed an initial flight level (once it reached IGARI) of 330. Why the change?
I meant the Captain in command > Zaharie Shah
@Sussie
yeah, Razak cant lie well
@all
On the ‘flaperon’ page I mentioned Captain Simon Hardy’s ‘long suicide’ theory. He backs it up with a detailed mathematical/geometric calculation which pinpoints the final crash site near Ile Amsterdam (SIO). We’ll find out by next month if he’s right.
DennisW raises some doubts: lack of debris, lack of motive, and flaperon drift all point in a different direction. But for Hardy, it was the turn back inwards towards Penang that was the most telling. Captain Zaharie Shah is from Penang… was this fly past a last, emotional goodbye from him?
Understandably, many here have issues with long suicide. But what are everyone’s thoughts about the turn inwards towards Penang? Are there any obvious reasons the plane wouldn’t have kept close to the Thai-Malaysian border throughout, eventually flying out from Perlis?
(Apologies in advance if this has been touched upon before).
@Sajid UK
Hi Sajid, yes it has been discussed and the common theory was Thailand radar avoidance as this was an obviously more expeditious route to SIO. Of course we now know the radar was crap but maybe Z didn’t.
Although with that theory it seems he should have expected some fairly ugly things to happen that didn’t happen. So did he know there would be glitches and expect the calamity or was avoiding flying over space in which he’d be found?
The proposed reminiscent Penang fly-by, goodbye to the old homeland to kick-off the hours and hours of his suicide mission, is to me, an embarrassment to discuss
U.S. ‘Pretty Damn Sure’ It Killed Jihadi John…
Evil at it’s best had to let one go
Mohammed’s followers are again killing innocents……in Paris.
Islam and its followers are a threat to humanity.
IR1907 – possibly retaliation for the vaporizing of “Jihadi John”. Sobering indeed for the countries who have chunks of malevolent Islam in their midst.
MH370 disappears the day Russian soldiers show up in Crimea with Russian patches on their arms. MH17 goes down in Ukraine after being targeted in a procession of other civilian aircraft. The Russian plane in Egypt looks a certain bombing but everyone has gone a bit coy on it and I predict it will stay that way. Just like the flaperon. When you wait forever for the investigation you have very real reason to be concerned about the investigation.
Forgot to mention – Russia clearly obstructed the MH17 investigation.
@Matty
NO. Read carefully this. I did yesterday, just while terror tried to rule in Paris
https://www.rt.com/politics/official-word/321857-putin-talks-syria-g20/
IR1907,
“Islam and its followers are a threat to humanity.”
Bigots and religeous zealots of ALL persvasions are!
@muone
I don’t see Christians blowing themselves up in markets.
IR1907,
The issue that you don’t see this only uncovers huge gaps in your education…
No wonder that you are ready to burn the Captain of MH370.
MuOne – Australia has as many Buddhists as Muslims. The money we spend monitoring them?? $0.00
@Susie Crowe
Thanks for the info!
Although I too think long suicide is unlikely, I believe dismissing anything Hardy says out of hand is slightly foolish.
After all, many here have used the journey across ‘air traffic no-man’s land’ to back up their own hijack speculations. (I agree with them). But suddenly the plane flies in the opposite direction and now its trying to avoid radar? Hardy might have a point.
It might not be pilot suicide. But that doesn’t rule out the executioners of the hijack, knowing the pilots would soon be disposed of, granting Zaharie Shah, the main pilot, his one last wish (calling a relative not being an option).
This would also show a certain level of compassion from the hijackers which is slightly unusual. Maybe they appreciated the pilots being unwitting victims of circumstance, flying a plane in exactly the right spot and the right time for the highly complex hijack to proceed?
And this would probably rule out more brutal, impulsive groups like IS and possibly point to at least one hijacker being Malaysian?
Apologies to those who dislike motive-based speculations, I just wanted to add a few thoughts to the mix.
Then you have the bill for the stack of inmates we have who got done for plotting mass casualty attacks, and the endless policing, and pre-dawn raids, and de-radicalization programmes, and hitech surveillance. But anyone can be a zealot, of course. Just that most are harmless.
@Oleksandr,
Your comment is so laughable and pathetic that i consider it a waste of time to respond.(but ill respond anyway)
Actually i think it is your lack of intelligence for failing to see the real core problems. You talk about ”issues” so be kind and explain what issues you are talking about. That all abrahamic religions are the same fairytale ? I think that is widely known. To keep it short for your brain > All religions have reformed themselves during the course of time but there is still one out there that sticks out its ugly head and fails to move ahead with the time.
Yes, Islam is much worse than all other abrahamic religions and your (your kind) failure to realize this will cost more and more lives unfortunately.
About Zaharie Shah : I never said that what i state is 100% undeniable.
Now please bugger off with your personal attacks.
Regarding Hardy’s Penang scenario >
This Penang scenario is a real problem here that has the potential to ruin Hardy’s hard work. I don’t think that any suicidal pilot will have the mental ability to say a final goodbye especially when he is trying his best to remain stealthy and evade radars.
We can discount the Penang story. There is this issue left with lingering around Indonesian islands.(i’ll write on this later)
Terrorist attacks are predicated on loss of life, generally conducted by suicide, a desperate cowardly act they seem to confuse with a heroic one.
These lunatics want to instill fear not understanding that simply being a lunatic is fearful enough. They try achieving this by also claiming credit for acts not of their own hoping to bolster a more powerful image.
It was generally accepted if terrorists were responsible for MH370 it would have been touted by them, but no one, not even the lunatics laid claim.
Remove the self-enhancement of credit and consider motive for MH370. If terrorists strive to kill as many as possible by also killing themselves, the events of MH370 as we know them would certainly qualify.
Considered as motive only (logistics aside), could it have been an act of terrorism that was executed perfectly?
@sinux & Chris in Dallas
Thanks for your comments on the plane tracking system. Having now read comments on this topic on other blogs too, it seems the proposal is useless for situations like MH370 (assuming there was intention to avoid detection). Whether a system could be devised that can’t be turned off/spoofed etc. with automated monitoring and “real-time” reporting; and whether such a system would be affordable and effective remain unclear. At least something is being done to try and give the flying public more confidence…
@AM2 & All
Yes…useless in the day & times we live in.
I’m still convinced that Z did it. He was headed back to Kuala Lumpur either for the Petronas towers or to make a political statement, but lost his nerve. Swung by Panang as a final fly by, then out to sea. After all, it would be up to the rest of the world to “Prove It”. That’s exactly what the Malaysian Gov’t want’s and Z as well. One hand washing the other while saying “Prove It” Mike Exner Tweeted that two search vessels will be back on station on 11-14. God Speed to them all.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-confirms-sinai-crash-was-the-work-of-terrorists/2015/11/17/496286f4-8d05-11e5-ae1f-af46b7df8483_story.html
Russia finally declared this was done by terrorists. I guess timing was right for them since russian public will accept it now somewhat easier after what happened in Paris.
I don’t know who falken is but what he posted on 12th November about Paris (totally unrelated to MH370 or russian plane or this site at all) seems a bit spooky although I believe it’s just a coincidence.
@Sajid UK
“On the ‘flaperon’ page I mentioned Captain Simon Hardy’s ‘long suicide’ theory. He backs it up with a detailed mathematical/geometric calculation which pinpoints the final crash site near Ile Amsterdam (SIO). We’ll find out by next month if he’s right.”
Rest assured he is not. They won’t find anything until they change their starting perspective.
“But for Hardy, it was the turn back inwards towards Penang that was the most telling. Captain Zaharie Shah is from Penang… was this fly past a last, emotional goodbye from him?”
no it wasn’t, at the time he probably didn’t have time to think about any emotional goodbyes and such miscs anyway
it’s just imagination from Hardy
“But that doesn’t rule out the executioners of the hijack, knowing the pilots would soon be disposed of, granting Zaharie Shah, the main pilot, his one last wish (calling a relative not being an option).”
do you really think they would divert the plane and risk the mission to grant somone the wish? Come on.
@Susie Crowe
“The proposed reminiscent Penang fly-by, goodbye to the old homeland to kick-off the hours and hours of his suicide mission, is to me, an embarrassment to discuss”
Exactly.
@StevanG
No more embarrassing than the other theories we’ve heard. Super secret cargo being hijacked by the Russians OR the U.S. going to Diego Garcia. Lets us not forget the Mother-ship on it’s way to Alpha Centuri…YAWN.
Even hijacked..what was the end game? One would have to believe the MH-370 is still out there somewhere for some diabolical plan still waiting to be unhatched? Or a foiled hijacking…Why head to the SIO without so much as a peep? No demands, no end game?
Exhausting the fuel at altitude during some unexplained ghost flight doesn’t hold water. The a/c would have EXPLODED, yet..not even a single seat cushion or other debris. Only the flap found on Reunion which to me points at a controlled landing at sea. WHY no other debris?
Agari was the turning point. When Z turned back, there was no turning back. The moment he made that fateful decision, it was a hijacking. He extinguished the lives of the passengers during the turn back by climbing & cutting off the oxygen supply. This is why no cell calls were made at ANY time after Agari. The passengers and first officer were dead. With that said. What was his original plan? Who knows…but some thing went wrong. He lost his nerve or support he was depending on to carry out his political objective. It became, in the END a suicide flight, not by design.
Everyone keeps looking for the common denominator. The “Missing Piece” as it were. That aircraft was flown, by a human being, a pilot, to fuel exhaustion by a man that to this day will say “Prove It”. And when we do find her, it will only frustrate us again. The data recorders will be as black as the recorded flight to nowhere.
@Chris in Dallas
You’ve got it just about right. Only, nothing went ‘wrong’ for Mr. Zaharie. His intent was, from the beginning, to gain absolute control over the a/c (thus the O2 bleed at altitude).
Once this was achieved he was well on his way to disappearance and death. And although he wouldn’t be around to see the aftermath, there is no doubt that he committed this heinous act for the delusional objective of bringing an end to BN party rule.
I use the term ‘delusional’ not so much to characterize the cause and effect of his actions (BN may yet have it’s comeuppance), but, rather, that the term seems fitting of a man/mind with such pronounced flirtations with said occurrence…and to then go through with the long dreamt about denouement?? Rather disturbing in the vain of GermanWings, albeit ever so slightly.
“Even hijacked..what was the end game? ”
a political protest, unless one comes up with something better
“He extinguished the lives of the passengers during the turn back by climbing & cutting off the oxygen supply.”
based on erroneous radar data, thus just imagination
“This is why no cell calls were made at ANY time after Agari.”
cells don’t work at cruising altitude unless overflying a cell station