The discussion prompted by last week’s blog post raised some interesting issues that I think are worth discussing in further detail.
First, I wrote last week that “At 18:22, MH370 vanished from primary radar coverage over the Malacca Strait. Three minutes later—about the amount of time it takes the Satellite Data Unit (SDU) to reboot—the satcom system connected with Inmarsat satellite 3F-1 over the Indian Ocean and inititated a logon at 18:25:27.”
Commenter LouVilla earlier today laid out the issue with more clarity, writing:
MH370 flew out of radar range @18:22.12 UTC. All of a sudden @18:25.27 UTC, the AES sent an Login-Request to the satellite. This are 03:15 Minutes between this two events. When the AES is without power supply for a while and reboots after power is available again the AES needs approximately 02:40 Minutes to sent an Login Request (ATSB Report Page 33). 03:15 minus ~ 02:40 = ~ 35 seconds. So, the perpetrator must activated the left bus again at around 18:22.47 UTC, 35 seconds after MH370 flew out of radar range.
The close sequence of these events does, in my mind, raise the possiblity that they are connected. How would a perpetrator know that he has left radar coverage? Among the possibilites would be a) some kind of radar-energy detector (like that used by automobile speed-trap radar detectors) brought on board by the perpetrators, or b) prior scouting by allied agents. This latter idea would be far fetched for a suicidal pilot but quite feasible for, say, Russia, which spends quite a lot of time probing the radar coverage of its NATO neighbors.
Of course the timing might just be a coincidence.
A second point I’d like to address is the idea that Zaharie or Fariq might have de-powered the satcom by isolating the left AC bus. One problem with this scenario, as I’ve previously mentioned, is that it would be difficult for a pilot to know just what else they would be taking off line in isolating the left AC bus. I later realized that I had underestimated the problem.
In a fascinating blog post on Flight.org an airline pilot who goes by the handle “Ken” describes going through a simulated left AC bus failure in the course of a training session. He notes that among the systems lost were Window Heat (Left) and a Primary Hydraulic Pump (Left). “No biggie,” he writes, but adds that in addition:
…there are a whole host of ancillary services lost. Many of these are reflected by the amber lights on the overhead panel. Having looked at the roof – you later discover even then that it’s not the whole story. In this particular scenario we decided to return to KLAX. Part of the return process was fuel jettison down to maximum landing weight. Guess what? Without the Left Bus – the main tank jettison pumps are failed. You’ll be advised of this… when you start the fuel jettison. I didn’t give this a second thought… but the discussion we had afterwards that included a talk about this little quirk of the Boeing EICAS/ECL was interesting. There are no EICAS/STATUS messages to advise you of everything you’ve lost, and in many cases, until you attempt to use something that’s failed – you won’t know about it. Older aircraft used to publish a Bus Distribution List (Electrical and Hydraulic) so that you’d know exactly what you’d lost with a particular electrical bus failure – but not on the 777. My fellow pilots were vaguely disturbed by the lack of information.
It’s not impossible to imagine that one of the pilots cooked up a plan that involved switching off the satcom by isolating the left AC bus, but to do so they would have had to do intensive research into the issue. And even then, they would have to have grappled with the fact that in doing so they might disable other systems that they weren’t aware of. All told, this would be a complicated and risky strategy. And to what end? If the satcom was deselected for ACARS and the IFE was switched off (both of which are easily accomplished from the cockpit) then there would be no reason for a pilot to fear that the satellite would give away his position.
Another suggestion that has been made is the idea that the co-pilot, having been locked out of the cockpit, went down into the E/E bay and started pulling circuit breakers at random, hoping that in so doing he would succeed in de-powering the flight deck door lock, and instead power cycled the satcom by mistake. I don’t think this makes much sense, since a) this would require to know that such a circuit breaker exists in the E/E bay, but not know where it is, and b) I just can’t imagine a trained airplane pilot pulling circuit breakers at random.
In general I think we should resist any explanations that require complicated series of actions to take place as a result of a random series of happenstances. Boeing 777s are not Rube Goldberg contraptions; they are multiply redundant and extremely robust. Neither a fast-moving fire nor a panicked copilot are likely to remove the exact components at exactly the right time (and then replace them at exactly the right time!) by chance alone.
Finally, I think it’s time to raise a very important issue regarding the search of the southern Indian Ocean. Last week, I wrote that the search had failed. Some people took umbrage at this suggestion, pointing out that the original 60,000 sq km area has not yet been searched. To that, I say fair enough. Perhaps I jumped the gun. I’m willing to go along with those who say that we need to wait until the entire 120,000 sq km are searched. But then what?
For many, the matter will have been laid to rest: if the plane is not there, then it did not go there. It will be time to scratch the “ghost plane” hypothesis off the list and move on to see what other options are on the table. Well and good–this is how scientific investigation moves forward.
However, I am concerned that some people might refuse to come along. Already some commenters have pointed out that there may be crevasses into which the debris could have sunk, or underwater hills in whose sonar shadow the wreckage may be lurking. Or maybe there was a gap between the search swathes. These are all valid points, but they are also points that the Fugro searchers are certainly well aware of. They know exactly what part of the seabed each sonar image covers. They can tell where the gaps are, and they can send UAVs to probe the shadows and the gullies. Their entire mission hangs on them covering every square inch of the designated area, precisely so that that when they’re finished no one can say, “well, you only covered 99.99 percent, therefore we don’t know it isn’t down there.”
We all have to be open-minded about the data, no matter how fervently we may believe that our personal hypothesis is correct. It’s unsportsmanlike to call on the ATSB to search a particular ocean, at great expense and effort, and then when they’ve spent the money and time say, “Well, I don’t believe in your result, you probably screwed it up.”
We can be skeptical about the authorities’ handling of the investigation–I’m sure none of us would be here if we weren’t–but at the end of the day we have to have some basic faith in the honor and competence of the investigators. Otherwise, we just have to throw our hands in the air and declare that nobody knows anything.
@myron
Not feasible without a spoof. You run into the same issue as the Maldives. Hard to imagine why someone would go to the trouble of a spoof to dump the aircraft in the jungle or a lake or the ocean for that matter.
so without a spoof and/or comms jamming, but with Malaysia series incompetence(s) they some how disappeared a B777 (almost) perfectly… In that (almost) there must be further clues in solving this…
@Myron, yes someone or a group of people managed to disappear a 777 without a single trace as of today. I would argue that, if this situation continues, a complete vanishing is very hard to achieve without a spoof because no floating debris has turned up so far. For the same reason I would argue, in case of a successful spoof it’s highly unlikely that the plane crashed – either on land or into a body of water.
I think the spoof scenario would be easier to accept if we could come up with a plausible motive for a perp like China for example. But that’s hard as long as we can’t be sure that we have all necessary facts for spotting a motive. We can’t be sure at all that we’ve been informed truthfully about every single item in the cargo bay. We also can’t be sure that all the passenger really have been cleared or weren’t in possession of sensitive information. We have only the different authorities’ words for it.In case of Russia and the Ukraine we don’t even have that assurance. Why should we believe the authorities? Their acts have hardly been confidence inspiring so far. Why are so many people so willing to accept the declaration that all passengers have been cleared as the sole truth. Why are so many people trusting MAS’s cargo list? Despite Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur having been an international hub for military technology and weapons smuggling for years.
@Matty, could you post the enlightening WJ article about that subject again for those who haven’t seen it, yet? Since we can’t be sure at all that we have all the facts in the table it’s a bit disingenuous to state that there has been no motive for any set of perps to hijack the plane. That we don’t know a plausible motive doesn’t mean at all that there isn’t one.
I should add that I’m aware that the search in the SIO isn’t completed so far and the plane can still be found. Or, with all the bad luck tha has conspired to spirit the plans away there has been additional bad luck and the plane has been overlooked by the searchers.
search in SIO will be complete only when the whole arc gets searched, at least 150nm from both sides…
@littlefoot – if we tie in MH17 and the recent news it was Russia who shot it down actually, i suspect that might be in retaliation to some thing further going ons in Malaysia.. or as I read one theory a few Russian operatives were on board MH370. With those missing operatives Russia retaliated against MAS.
Nobody retaliated, it was a mistake of pro-russian SAM crew coupled with mistake of ukrainian ATC.
@myron
I think if you deep dive into MH17 case (skipping (m)any commenters) and latest news, the australians new short video and transcript of full one, everybody can try to disclose what happened (despite the titles). After series of videos from the past I saw, I must say I trust not only Mr. Obama, but also Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin, far more than to anybody unknown who wants to twist me to something aggressive – Ukrainians are in “holy war with Russia”, again just now warning that they inevitably prepare massive attack on them; so we will see; truth is, despite obvious initial defense of “less-powered”, I am now on side of PEACE only, any maybe also because of MH370 case; what happened to MH17 is absolutelly strange already now though 🙁
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6guA9ou1oHU
(bad is, that any evidences may be faked to twist and spin the reality several times, so nobody can be sure, whats true; every country has experts who can do this)
@Littlefoot
The missing motive could in itself be construed as an important clue. It leaves us with a sole perpetrator acting out his personal plan.
I find organizational or nation state motives to be a bit of a stretch since a lot of time has passed and still no one knows what that motive might be. Why would you do something, and then not reap the “benefits” of that act no matter how perverse they might be. Nobody is stepping up to claim responsibility. At least not publicly.
The information available to us suggests a lone perp acting out his personal fantasy.
@falken,may I ask: what is your native language?
I am thinking the Rus-ops were lured onboard this flight on purpose, to have them detained in a military jail. The SIO is just a guise put on…
What military jail? Russia would sure know if their operatives were on board.
@Dennis,
my point is that we do not know if the motive is missing because we might not know all the necessary facts. If I had complete trust in the criminal investigation, then, yes, I’d say that we probably should know by now if anyone had a motive. As it happens I don’t trust the criminal investigation one bit.
As to states as perps: it probably happens more often than we realize. Especially totalitarian states can very effectively prevent leaks and we simply never hear about it. Germans had the eye opening experience of what can stay hidden for decades when after the reunification the secret STASI documents became available. It was shocking to realize in how many cases they had meddled and instigated crimes and nobody had suspected that the STASI had been involved. And since I don’t want to hit solely on non-democratic governments, there is a shocking case where probably NATO allies France and the US shot down an Italian airliner by mistake in an absurd fighter jet scenario which could have been an assassination attempt:If you read the German Wikipedia page about the Itavia flight which was probably shot down during a NATO campaign against Lybia and Gaddhafi over the Mediterranean, you will be shocked about the complexity of the deceptions and obfuscations, including many unexplained or sudden deaths of witnesses who just had decided to speak up, but then died or vanished before they could talk even many years after the event. And even after decades the business hasn’t got fully resolved. I said look up the German Wikipedia page because they don’t shy away from the harrowing and absurd details, while the English page is still fully in denial. In this case I absolutely trust the German version because Germany has no dogs in that fight and normally German Wikipedia is pretty bland and not prone to creative imagination. But in this case their language is very clear and persuasive with many interesting sources and fairly shocking details. The case is at least as absurd as mh370’s vanishing act. It is a stark reminder that crimes committed by a state do happen and unfortunately they sometimes don’t shy away from further murders in order to keep things successfully under wraps. Hopefully it doesn’t happen too often. But if someone had come up with German Wikipedia’s version of this story 20 years ago he would not only have been called a conspiracy theorist of the weirder kind, he would have been called crazy and paranoid.
My point: it’s simply hasty and uninformed to declare that these state committed crimes rarely or never happen. And very often the motives and benefits are murkier and more irrational than in crimes committed by individuals.
@Littlefoot
Your story (Itavia flight) is a good example of a ridiculous conspiracy theory that people refuse to let go of. The official (and most likely correct) story from very trustworthy investigators concluded that the plane was brought down by an onboard bomb. The rest is all rubbish and speculation.
@DennisW
avitavia 870
Littlefoot is complete right and in line with several high court judgements of italy. The event is called the avitavia massacre and you must be blind and perfectly ignorant to deny this criminal government cover up.
@DennisW: We have no motive yet for the MH370, but as @littlefoot implies, we don’t have absolute knowledge, either. (I won’t touch the Itavia incident because I know nothing about it.)
Here’s an example of what is possible. We know that Najib, PM of Malaysia, is suspected of illicitly transferring, i.e., stealing, $700+ million from the Malaysian strategic development fund 1MDB. That money was stolen from somebody. PetroSaudi? Chinese? Russians? Who knows? But whoever lost that money had a lot of motivation to send a message and exact revenge.
If you are American or an American ally, and the oligarchs of a country steal your money, you have recourse through the banking system, such as freezing assets. The options available to the governments, companies, and citizens of other countries are much more limited, and might entail a more “physical” response.
And if things went down in this way, Najib would have all the motivation in the world to derail an investigation into the incident.
Again, I don’t know the motive for a possible hijacking. But I am not willing to say that there was no motive just because I don’t know of one.
@cosmic
I’m still wrestling with 911. If I can ever solve that one perhaps I can move on to avitavia 870.
@DennisW: I bet a number people here have pondered TWA800, too. What makes that one intriguing is the preponderance of evidence from eye witnesses that contradicts the official narrative.
@DennisW
Avitavia
Thanks for your future assistance. But no need. Already solved with “deutscher Gründlichkeit” to the bone. You can focus on 911 as long as you want 🙂
perhaps the MH370 disappearance was a “warning” to Malaysia but they didn’t respond timely enough then MH17 was “accidentally” shot down.
the problem is even if this was a state act it would need at least another cooperative state which makes things a lot more complicated
Avitavia is a totally different case and I’m not sure if official version is true, could be the similar case as iranian airbus shot down by USS Vincennes or MH17 even.
The thing is that mistakes happen and SAMs/their operators are far from perfect.
@VictorI
Yes, that one has gone on for quite awhile now as well. For some reason people cannot get enough of it. Snopes speculates that it is due to the widespread mistrust of government in particular and authority in general. The FBI interviewed all the TWA800 eye witnesses and what they saw could not be reconciled with a surface to air missile event. Still it goes on. There will never be an end to it or the “grassy knoll”.
I have no issue with the “conspiracy” mindset. It is probably a good thing at the end of day. I am just not “wired” to think that way. It is not my intention to discourage that sort of thinking either, but the most productive path is always to work with what you have until new information surfaces. I am not going to Malaysia and stalk the halls of government looking for new facts. I might be inclined to go bar hopping in Bangkok to see what I can find there.
@littlefoot
czech; and my apologies for my written english, probably somewhat crazy and with mistakes too… and, you know, I hate any conspiracy theories, always targeted against governments bad intents and spreading another level of hate worldwide; absolutelly, full stop. Even ukrainians had chances to use soft-power and negotiations from scratch against eastern area where people have no problem with Russia and cant understand hate of west – but hate forces another hate… Soviet Union and our own alies attacked and anexed us also too in the past, but this is far history and I personally want to forget it, for future, thats all. Truth is, for some unknown reason, Russia spread during few years back very hatefull conspiracy theories too – I can particulary point to “The TruthSeeker SHOW” on RT; absolutelly stupid series full of crazy nonsenses and hate, lead since 10/2012 by “bad” guy Daniel Bushell – but this SHOW vanished from RT menu back in 08/2014, also without a trace. And the same guy was nicely reporting from Lousane, Switzerland about nuclear talks with Iran recently. There is simply too much weird things around in media but I feel it all like path to unity on positive things.
@littlefoot
… here one german troll is really very sick and mad about missing truthseeker show… you know, 20 minutes of ROFL for me 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZQaQjoZrEs
@StevanG
Conspiracies thrive on complexity. The more complex the better.
It has been 16+ months now since MH370 vanished. If someone has an idea of why it was done (apart from a rogue individual), this would be an excellent time to put it out there along with some supporting facts. I am not holding my breath, however.
@DennisW: Yes, supporting facts are what is missing. We’ve done a lot of thinking and analyses using very little data. I suggested privately to some contributors here that rather than fight about pet theories, the most constructive thing we can do here is think about how to get more data.
Indeed, however even official theory about ghost flight is conspiracy by itself… or at least more conspiracy than planned landing at some airport.
@Dennis
It’s pretty clear to one (if you keep an OPEN mind, geez) that Putin had motive aplenty.
MH370 has sent a message to the world: Don’t mess with Russia. We can make a 777 disappear in the middle of the might from backwater Malaysia. OOhs and Awe’s.
I’m shaking and quivering in fear.
@spencer – they were just practicing with mh370
@Spencer
I worry a lot more about Obama than I do Putin.
David Copperfield can make the Statue of Liberty disappear (I was there for that one).
You are taking yourself far too seriously.
guys, keep calm and listen science; it seems something is little bit more dangerous than any single man or country… and Duncan Steel knows something about it too, IMHO
http://www.iflscience.com/environment/hottest-year-record-ocean-warming-now-unstoppable
@Brock, @DennisW, @Victor
Well said Victor “We’ve done a lot of thinking and analyses using very little data. I suggested privately to some contributors here that rather than fight about pet theories, the most constructive thing we can do here is think about how to get more data.”.
However, using lack of data too until we hopefully get more of it (especially radar data): Dr Alec Duncan’s Scott Reef analysis indicated the “Curtin Boom” location but the Scott Reef sound recorder location was much nearer to Christmas Island. If MH370 crashed near CI surely the Scott Reef recorder would have picked something up? I am still wondering what timeframe (+- 00:19) Dr Duncan used for his analysis. Brock did you get any more information from him on this? Any thoughts?
@Brock.
P.S. Not quite clear from the Scott Reef report what time intervals were covered and did Dr Duncan look at any more subsequent to the report?
“the most constructive thing we can do here is think about how to get more data”
Well said, Victor.
Jeff, you have become the front man for this motley crew of researchers/warriors on JW. You have great media connections. You are a persuasive, savvy, and poised man. Would you consider lobbying on CNN etc for the release of more info from the Malaysian investigation?
I find it disturbing that no voice in the media is demanding that this info is finally released, and relentlessly shaming and harassing the Malaysian investigation until they do. Does no one care that the Malaysian government are still withholding the only evidence that exists?
@AM2: I have today refreshed my original (April 15, 2015) request of Dr. Duncan that he confirm a sufficiently wide net was cast.
@Brock. Thanks and could you please also confirm or correct my understanding (or ask Dr Duncan):
From the Dr Duncan et al. report on Scott Reef IMOS logger data analysis “Signals and their spectrograms recorded between 01:00:00 UTC and 02:20:00 UTC on 8th March 2014 have been analysed. Each recording is of five minutes duration and recordings started every 15 minutes, commencing approximately 15 seconds before the hour.”
So recordings were 5 mins on, 10 mins off and if MH370 had crashed near to say Christmas Island, around 00:19, then the analysis of Scott Reef recordings would need to start earlier, there would be a good chance of missing it (unless it luckily fell in one of the recording time periods) and perhaps the other recording stations (Rottnest & HA01) wouldn’t pick it up because of the direction..??
MH370: Indonesian Police Chief ‘Knows What Happened To Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight’
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/15/mh370-indonesian-police-chief-missing-malaysia-airlines-flight_n_5821486.html
The SSCVR operates any time power is available on the Left AC transfer bus. This bus is not powered from batteries or the Ram Air Turbine (RAT).
If either the Captain or the FO “did it”, which one would have been more likely to know that the SSCVR was powered by the LEFT AC transfer bus, and to have an interest in preserving the recording on it?
@Gysbreght, How do you know that the CVR is powered by the left AC bus? I hadn’t seen that mentioned before.
BTW, I wouldn’t take that old story about the Indonesian police chief as being indicative of anything–like the US general who said it went to Pakistan, the default assumptions should be that he’s an old guy spouting off without any basis.
@curious, thanks for your kind words. I know that quite a few other people share your conviction that pressuring the Malaysians to release more information is the only way to move forward, but it strikes me as an exercise in futility.
The sentence is a copy/paste from paragraph 1.11.2 of Factual Information. Here’s another one:
“The solid state cockpit voice recorder is in the Electronic Equipment Rack, E7, in the aft cabin above the ceiling and located adjacent to the SSFDR.”
Later he could have opened Electronic Equipment Rack E7, physically pulled the SSCVR power supply plug from its socket, and then gone back to the MEC to restore power to the Left AC bus. Mystery solved.
@falken, I was not critical of your command of the English language.I for example don’t speak one word of Czech 🙂
I was simply trying to understand you better and thoight it might help if I know your native language.
How old is General Sutarman? The picture in the Huffington Post article seems to be of the Malaysian Inspector General of Police Khalid Abu Bakar (pictured), (who) said he plans to question the head of the Indonesian Police Force, General Sutarman, over his comments.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2755930/New-mystery-emerges-MH370-police-chief-claims-knows-happened-missing-jet.html#ixzz3gFGyOMhs
@Gysbreght
I believe there is a cockpit circuit breaker for the SSCVR. Presumably this is to allow the recording to be stopped to preserve a record of an incident and not record over it.
I am surprised that in this day and age a SSCVR would not have at least 12 hour capacity. I can hold 70 hours of music on my iPod mini.
@JW
Quit picking on old guys. Geeez. First my CI theory is nonsense, and now I am an old guying babbling incoherently.
Where is the sensitivity training?
How old is General Sutarman? The picture in the Huffington Post article seems to be of the Malaysian Inspector General of Police Khalid Abu Bakar (pictured), (who) said he plans to question the head of the Indonesian Police Force, General Sutarman, over his comments.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2755930/New-mystery-emerges-MH370-police-chief-claims-knows-happened-missing-jet.html#ixzz3gFGyOMhs
It gets more interesting when you Google “General Sutarman”.
antaranews.com 17 Januari 2015 00:14
Jakarta – President Joko Widodo officially announced the dismissal of General Sutarman as the National Police chief.
According to another article he was 55 years when he was appointed in 2013.
@DennisW, I didn’t say you were an old guy spouting nonsense! I was referring to the retired Indonesian police chief. I see he wasn’t actually all that old.
@Gysbreght, Good find, about the CVR being powered off the left AC bus. I wouldn’t go so far as to say “mystery solved” but it does provide the first plausible motive for isolating the left AC bus since this recent discussion began. I still wonder how Zaharie would know that the CVR was on the left AC bus; it’s not easy to find that kind of information (look how long it’s taken us!), but I’m looking into how it can be acquired.
Do you have a reference for that?
There is a Cockpit Voice Recorder ERASE Switch on the Overhead Maintenance Panel:
Push and hold for three seconds – erases voice recorder if on the ground, AC power on, and parking brake set.
Anyway, it wouldn’t be of much use to someone locked out of the cockpit.
I don’t get the impression that General Sutarman is “… an old guy spouting off without any basis”.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/01/22/sutarman-bids-farewell-and-calls-unity.html