In yesterday’s post I argued that the reboot of MH370’s satellite communications system at 18:25 is a key piece of evidence about what happened to the missing plane. In fact, I would go so far as to say that we should discount any scenario which cannot explain the reboot.
That being the case, I thought it would be a good idea to clarify what we do know about rebooting the satcom and discuss the implications. Right up front I’d like to emphasize that I am by no means an electronics expert and I welcome any corrections or clarifications.
First, some basic background for those who might be new to the discussion. Flight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International airport at 16:42 UTC on 3/7/14 bound for Beijing. At 17:07:29, the plane sent an ACARS report via its satcom. At 17:20:36, five seconds after passing waypoint IGARI and a minute after the last radio transmission, the transponder shut off. For the next hour, MH370 was electronically dark. The next ACARS transmission, scheduled for 17:37, did not take place. At 18:03 Inmarsat attempted to forward an ACARS text message and received no response, suggesting that the satcom system was turned off or otherwise out of service. At 18:22, MH370 vanished from primary radar coverage over the Malacca Strait. Three minutes later—about the amount of time it takes the Satellite Data Unit (SDU) to reboot—the satcom system connected with Inmarsat satellite 3F-1 over the Indian Ocean and inititated a logon at 18:25:27.
The question is, by what mechanisms could MH370’s satcom have become inactive, then active again?
Logging on and off the satcom is not something airline pilots are trained to do. A pilot can deselect the satcom as a mode of transmission for ACARS messages so that they go out over the radio instead, but this is not what seems to have happened in the case of MH370. According to the ATSB report issued in June of 2014,
A log-on request in the middle of a flight is not common and can occur for only a few reasons. These include a power interruption to the aircraft satellite data unit (SDU), a software failure, loss of critical systems providing input to the SDU or a loss of the link due to aircraft attitude. An analysis was performed which determined that the characteristics and timing of the logon requests were best matched as resulting from power interruption to the SDU.
Satellite communications expert Mike Exner addressed the issue specifically in a guest post here and likewise concluded that in all likelihood the SDU was powered down, and then powered up again.
There is no on/off switch for the SDU in the cockpit. A person wanting to turn the SDU off has two options. The first is to descend into the electronics and equipment bay (E/E bay) through a hatch at the front of the first-class cabin and flip three circuit breakers located there. The second method, which can be accomplished directly from the cockpit, is to isolate the portion of the plane’s electrical system which feeds the SDU, the left AC bus. According to IG member Barry Martin, the left main AC bus can receive its electrical power from any one of four sources:
- left main engine IDG via a left generator circuit breaker
- right main AC bus via both left and right bus tie breakers
- auxiliary power unit generator via an auxiliary power breaker and the
left bus tie breaker - backup generator converter which connects to the left transfer bus via a
left converter circuit breaker, and the left transfer bus connects to the left
main AC via a left transfer bus breaker.
In order to prevent any of these from supplying electrical power, Martin writes, a multi-step process is required:
The left IDG can be disconnected in a couple of ways via the flight deck electrical power system control panel. The preferred method would be via the left generator control switch. The second method is by use of the guarded drive disconnect switch, which permanently disconnects the IDG and the connection can only be remade on the ground. The L GEN CONT switch will open
the left generator circuit breaker, but the left bus tie breaker would then automatically close to re-energise the left main bus so the left BTB must be switched to ISLN on the electrical control panel before attempting to disconnect the IDG.
The left main bus can still be powered from the left transfer bus which picks up power from a solid-state variable-speed constant-frequency backup generator converter. The easiest method of preventing this is by simply opening the left transfer bus breaker, which allows the left transfer bus to remain energised to ensure the left transformer rectifier unit stays powered. However, I don’t see an option on the flight deck control panel to manually open the left transfer bus breaker. A second option would be opening the left converter circuit breaker, connecting the left transfer bus to the backup generator. Again, there’s no L CCB switch on the panel. Therefore the third option is to switch both backup generators off, which is possible via the panel.
This explanation is somewhat above my paygrade but my takeaway is that isolating the left AC bus requires some technical savvy. Indeed, when Mike Exner went to visit a professional flight-sim facility last November, the instructors there had never heard of this method of de-powering the SDU. (These are pilots whose job it is to train other airline pilots in every aspect of aircraft operation, so if it were common knowledge one would expect them to know about it.)
This is why I feel the reboot of MH370’s satcom suggests that whoever took the plane was technically sophisticated.
Some people have resisted this interpretation and instead raised the possibility that the SDU was power-cycled because someone wanted to turn something else off and back on again. The crucial question then becomes: What else is powered by the left AC bus? It wasn’t easy to find out, but after some careful digging, IG members were able to determine that the other systems fed by the AC bus are:
- TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System)
- Cockpit door lock
- The centre tank override and jettison pumps
- Some galley equipment
- IFE (in-flight entertainment system)
- One of the high-frequency radios
- The main passenger cabin lighting system (the night, cabin and cross-aisle lights remain powered)
Looking at this list, it’s hard to imagine that a hijacker or suicidal pilot would feel a pressing need to depower an entire portion of the electrical system in order to turn any of these things on and off. (Also, given how hard the IG had to work to compile this list, how would they know?) I can imagine wanting to prevent passengers from seeing the moving map feature in the IFE, but it’s possible to turn this off from the cockpit without isolating parts of the electrical system.
To my mind, the only plausible explanation for the satcom reboot is the simplest one: somebody aboard the plane wanted to reboot it. But why? Again I am only able to think of one plausible answer: that they took it offline in order to tamper with it in order to effect a spoof. The fact that the reboot was apparently initiated less than a minute after MH370 left primary radar coverage would tend to support this hypothesis.
In the course of yesterday’s discussion, it was suggested that the SDU may have shut off due to fire. I don’t find this very plausible, given the evidence that MH370 went electronically dark just five seconds after passing the last waypoint in Malaysian airspace. This seems to me a clear indication of deliberate purpose. And if someone isolated the left AC bus in an attempt to fight an electrical fire, why on earth would they turn it on again an hour later without attempting to make an emergency landing or even radio for help?
Another suggestion that came forward yesterday was that hijackers might have wanted to distract the passengers and cabin crew by turning off the IFE and galley equipment. But it seems to me that doing so would have had the opposite effect—it would have alerted them to the fact that something was wrong, if they weren’t aware already.
Can anyone come up with an alternative explanation for the mysterious satcom reboot?
UPDATE:
- After receiving input from Don Thompson, who is perhaps the most knowledgeable independent experts in the world on this topic, I’ve change the wording of the third paragraph to clarify that it was the failed transmission of an ACARS text message at 18:03 that provides the first clear-cut evidence that the SDU was inoperative.
- On the advice of Gysbreght and LG Hamilton, I’ve removed “ACARS (VHF 3)” from the list of systems on the left AC bus and added “cockpit door lock.”
IMHO, if the captain had been excuting a carefully prepared plan,
– he would not have announced twice that he was maintaining FL350
– he would either have correctly signed off from KL ATC and signed in with HCM ATC, or he would not have replied to KL at all
– he would not have disabled SATCOM only to reboot it later
– he would not have waited until both engines had flamed out, but would either have crashed earlier or attempted to ditch while he still had engine power
The state of mind of the Cpt. may be irrelevant from the perspective of mentally illness when it was his mission to fight for a goal when he was confident his mission must lead to his personally victory.
I.e. the kamikaze pilots in WW2 were not mentally ill, they were volunteers who wanted to die in hope to lead her nation to victory against their enemy.They acted out of desperation.That was their duty, not the result of mentally illness.
Was the own government the enemy ? Was the Cpt. acting out of desperation because he thought it was his personally duty to die to save his nation ? i don´t know.
@Gysbreght
exactly
@spencer
“Do you have access to Z’s health records? Do you know his state of mind that evening?”
I don’t but they would be published by now if there was anything wrong with them, look what happened with Lubitz, those documents surfaced after only few days in his case.
@Loui
“Was the own government the enemy ? Was the Cpt. acting out of desperation because he thought it was his personally duty to die to save his nation ? i don´t know.”
It was his enemy. Suicide mission wouldn’t help the opposition politically, diverting to Christmas Island and shedding the light might help (only minimally though).
@all
A short while ago StevanG posted the following rather obscure link. I had never seen it before Stevan brought it to my attention. Please give it a read.
https://sites.google.com/site/mh370tibet/updates/05june2014
I do not know the author or his credentials, but his style and language seems sincere.
Totally independent of the above, I posted my revised Cnristmas Island scenario which can be found here.
http://mh370corner.blogspot.com/2015/05/christmas-island-revisited.html
Please do not think I am beating a drum here or that I am a stuck record. The Christmas Island scenario seriously suffers from a lack of debris. I readily admit that.
In any case, I do not think this independent set of conclusions was given much,if any, consideration by the collective. It is a rather remarkable coincidence.
@StevanG
The notion that Malaysia would have published Z’s medical records is a reach at best.
As for his state of mind, uh, we KNOW they omitted a germane FACT in regard to this. Do you dispute this?
Not Spoofed but, Foiled.
I’m believe that it was foiled plot brought on by “Z”. Meaning…that between Igari, the fly by during the straights, then to the SIO. Negotiations broke down. Ransom being the NOK. There were reports that 370 climbed to 45K’ at, or shortly after the Igari turn back. These reports were sharply redacted days afterwards.
“Broken Record” or not…SOMETHING happened between Igari & Panang that sent her southbound, thus making it personal & or political(both?) With the ultimatum given, “Z” made his turn to the SIO.
His hatred, misfortune or motive is questionable. You can throw all of the psychology experts at this..ALL DAY LONG, But….the fact of the matter remains. This was No accident, ghost flight, or hyper-spoofed hacked A/C. It was DELIBERATE ACT. The Igari turn proves it. The A/C TURNED AROUND with w/o notice!! Igarie was the starting point, planned & executed. Whether he lost his nerve as to his original plan, will always perplex me. The Maylays deemed it an accident, it’s out of the news now, no sweat on the brow, let sleeping dogs lie.
This has obviously gone way beyond a simple search for a wreck.
A freak accident with panic-stricken pilots? Unlikely, given Shah’s record and experience.
Pilot suicide? Too elaborate. He may have killed the FO and suicided at the wheel, leaving the plane on autopilot, but why not just dive into the sea? However, would so many people (including the cabin crew) have gone to their deaths unaware? No-one got off a call to loved ones?
Political blackmail? Only possible when the world (or the target) is aware of the threat, but that would have been easy enough to arrange. Of course, the Malaysian authorities could be lying, and certainly would never want to be accused of causing the deaths of so many innocent people. So why threaten only them, when he could have caused an international crisis?
My point? There had to be a motive, and a chain of logic, however warped or bizarre. Finding the plane has had its day – there needs to be a full criminal investigation, preferably conducted by an internationally sponsored and accredited forensic team. Only then will we have a chance of finding the truth.
If the released transcript between the KLATC and MAS Operations first asking MAS if they knew where MH370 went was pure then this would to seems to indicate this conversation would be much different if capt’n Z had gone into hijacking negations. Both MAS Operations and the KL ATC would be much more aware of the location of MH370 of this was the case.
@Victor & Jeff
Thanks for your answers Victor to my badly phrased questions about a landing, 2nd plane etc.. I am a complete novice in the area of satellite data.
Could you please confirm whether these are more options to add to the list for the cause of the “Mysterious Reboot”:
1. 9M-MRO landed and took off again (if radar data is not accurate then there is quite a wide time window for the landing including prior to 18:25)
2. Technically sophisticated perps used another plane (or drone?), swapped the SDU with 9M-MRO’s or had another pre-calibrated and the second plane was the one that flew to the SIO leaving 9M-MRO to fly dark elsewhere (you might say a type-B spoof)
or 3. Other. A whole swag of cover-up theories including MH370 crashed much earlier and the data were contrived/dove-tailed together by others (not the perps or Inmarsat). I’m not suggesting we discuss this here in this thread.
Spencer/Chris – Berating people for not agreeing with you is schoolyard stuff and believe it or not we know where you are coming from by now. You are trying to control the narrative – why? The dominant theory has not delivered as yet. If they were running around searching somewhere else I would understand your frustrations.
Chris – respectfully, you showing very little geopolitical awareness(I’m more interested than expert)is hardly a sound premise to belittle anyone who mentions it. As time goes by off the square conjecture will increase – that’s not surprising. I’m sure I’m not alone in saying I’m not totally convinced with the picture you paint. Viewed holistically these days it fails the sniff test – to me.
I want to apologize for the “Let Sleeping Dog’s Lie” Especially to the NOK. I was being candid & forefront regarding my thoughts regarding this matter, along with the Malaysian Gov’t discarding the event as an “Accident” Who can prove it otherwise? “Until we have the black boxes, who knows”? This A/C went so black..WHY would anyone think that we could retrieve any info from them? He killed every info system, to a point that she maybe never be found. Broken record…skip…skip…
@Matty
The irony is that you berate me time and again. And Jay. LOL.
And you accuse me of being absent reason, on the take a,d sans conscience.
I really don’t care to hear you continue to chastise me. Heed your own advice…If you don’t like the tone or topic, STAY OUT.
@Matty
Early on I thought you were a pretty cool Aussie until the U.S. cloaking, coverup BS. Schoolyard? That’s schoolyard. The U.S….The CIA, DOD, FBI, NSA, DEA,…maybe NASA. Did I forget anyone Matty?
I berated know-one until now. Congratulations.
“And if someone isolated the left AC bus in an attempt to fight an electrical fire, why on earth would they turn it on again an hour later …”
Easy to answer that question. Because that’s what the Boeing 777 FCOM QRH suggest to do in the event of a fire, smoke or fumes in the cabin, cockpit.
@Spencer
“We spend our time on Russians and spoofs while Hishammuddin and Zahrarie walk slowly into the night.” Well said..
@Matty: well said. Pilot as perp ranks well down my list, for the reasons you and Jeff have articulated, and others (did he wasnt EVERYONE to know, or NOBODY? Seems to shift around, depending on whether we’re trying to explain his motives, or his tactics).
@All: just for argument’s sake, can I ask you please to PRETEND you trusted US agencies (including Inmarsat) as far as you could throw them. Which aspects of its data might you feel warranted a closer inspection:
1) 5 days it spent in “custody” of US officials March 11-15
2) extreme paucity of mid-March data (and opacity of its official analysis)
3) death of ISAT key operator on same day search pivots to SIO (Mar.17)
4) incongruity between BTO- & BFO-indicated paths
5) congruity between its 17:21-18:25 gap & purported primary radar that perfectly fills it
6) dubious provenance of purported primary radar (phone pic of poorly labeled PPoint slide)
7) further 10-week delay in the release of the “full” report
8) redacted nature of this “full” report (missing fields & records)
9) format of this report (pdf)
10) JoN paper directive to disregard 18:27 & 00:19 BFOs, thereby preserving search zone long & lat, respectively
11) lack of real physical evidence to corroborate its indicated path
12) abundance of FAKE corroborating physical evidence leaked to media &/or promoted by politicians, by officials, or online
…?
I’m not suggesting for a moment that NONE of the above have innocent explanations – and I’m FAR from “99.99% certain” they can’t ALL have innocent explanations. I just think there’s enough smoke in that list to suggest a fire US operatives are trying to put out before anyone notices.
Which in turn suggests a possible reason why the signal data – at 18:25 in particular – has been so tough to map to a natural set of skills, behaviours, or motives: because they may be ARTIFICIAL.
If this possibility is accepted, we have 2 possibilities to add to Jeff’s list of remaining options: that MH370 either crashed – or landed – somewhere FAR from the location to which this signal data was MEANT to draw our attention.
@Brock
Esos Christos Brock…maybe we could save the Greek debt crisis too.
@Brock
Ya huffed on the Matty hook pipe with full vigor. 12 reasons, excuse me while I take a toke also…..Wheeeez OK, I’m better
We flew the plane to No-ever-stan, killed all of the pax for gold & the secret cargo, but wait, thats not all. We landed @ Banda Aceh, oh shoot, or was it Diego Garcia? Flight being as busy as it was, I lost my freaking compass bearings into & out of reality.
Disabling the cockpit door lock seems like a good
enough reason for a hijacker to turn off the left AC
bus it it controls the lock.
@Brock
I meant to say Hooka Pipe. B/C It IS a pipe dream! Who wound believe it? Take a toke from a living Nightmare…
NOBODY wants to accept it. It is a human tragedy that flies in the face of reality. I’ve been told by three different sources that Andreas “was different”. BS! “The situation with “Z”…different” I call BS again!
Whether splashed against a mountainside or the SIO, it’s all the same “IN THEIR MINDS” Ya get it? Understand?
Chris – disagreeing politely has been one of the enjoyable aspects of this forum. You sound very frustrated but what to do if a long list of people are having trouble with your explanations. There are plenty of aviation industry experts out there(most laying low) who cannot abide with the zero debris situation but it doesn’t even rate with you? I won’t be abusing you for it.
If you were a nerdy observer of politics(doesn’t sound like it) you might have sniffed the wind here and seen the inaction from some important players, it doesn’t look right, and yes I’m afraid your’e beloved US is one of those important players but I understand the sensitivity. The world is a zoo atm and US bashing is a snob sport but I will never make my bed on the grounds of fashion. I think I know who the real baddies are. I don’t know why you would struggle with the idea of govts concealing things – it’s standard. In the case of MH370 it comes across as abstinence, and what it belies exactly I don’t know. So there you are….I don’t know….unlike you.
Spencer – you have the thinnest skin in the world.
Chris – and if you ever show up on this veranda there are NO hooka pipes.
@all
homework for IT industry
One of the major lessons learnt from this event is, that we have far too much trust in the existing relationship between digital hardware and its software at least in respect to critical systems like power stations, water supply or car and aircraft software.
The better the digital world serves our daily routines, the more critical and potentially life-threatening systems get involved, being virtualized and digitalized and remote controlled and internet-capable etc. etc.
Now the current IT concept is by far not up to this new demands. Not to speak that there is a stunning unwillingness to intoduce due innovations that will radically change our understanding of the IT industry.
The current situation is the race betwen Hare and Hog, the hackers find a backdoor and the industry answers with a patch. This is not critical as long as only videos on our home pc are at risk. But we can not apply this raceing-system to real life processes like aircrafts or cars. Because every hack into an Aircraft could mean, that the A/C gets lost, or that my car will drive me against the next tree, until the industry delivers the next patch against the hack.
Its obvious that this racing technology will not work, and since the fly-by-wire A/C wil become standard, we urgently ned a safe waay to connect hardware and software and we should as one result of the discussion here demand from the board of ICAO to provide a kind of new software hardware connect that can not be compromised physically, so that a hack and resetting of values in the deep memories of the FMS and SDU Software becomes impossible.
I would also suggest the industry develops such systems asap for all critical digital systems.
Its really troubling that the private data of 25 Million US citizens were stolen by presumably chines Hackers and that the german “Bundestag” parliament needs a complete new hardware, because the curent hardware was compromised to the bone by russian hackers.
The acceptance of this Hare and Hog Race between Hackers and Industry is absolute apaling and there should be zero tolerance to this end.
New ideas welcome asap.
@Matty
Respectfully….Matty you probably NEED a hooka pipe while espousing your thoughts on this matter, or others.
@spencer
“The notion that Malaysia would have published Z’s medical records is a reach at best.”
why wouldn’t they? If I get it right the official theory is supportive of suicide, if he had bad health record they would be quick to publish it, no?
“As for his state of mind, uh, we KNOW they omitted a germane FACT in regard to this. Do you dispute this?”
What fact exactly? You lost me here so I can’t dispute what I don’t understand.
@Chris
“I’m believe that it was foiled plot brought on by “Z”. ”
I also believe something wrong went during the flight, I can’t discard suicide but I think that we should exhaust other options first especially because we don’t have any hard evidence the plane is really in southern SIO. Remember it’s just assumption about straight path flown at cruising speed.
@Brock
1-12) I agree it’s all very moot but if so many countries are involved in conspiracy then we have much bigger problem than a missing plane so this case stops being the problem at all, looking at that scale
StevanG
“I believe that it was foiled plot brought on by “Z”.
“We should exhaust the other options”
Agreed…..
Anyone trying to make sense of the entire mess would, IMO, accept, that it was a suicide. Suicide gone wrong. Can’t place my finger on it now, but something went wrong.(broken record…skip…skip…) Petronas Towers may have been the way point. Lost his nerve & flew into aviation history. The pax died @ the Igari turn back. That I’m sure of. He had full control from there & then on. This is where history begins & mystery takes place….no making sense of it, which is why it fits.
He didn’t want go down in history for a terrorist act, then turned his attention & intention to the disappearance. Ya follow?
that’s also a valid possibility…which doesn’t mean he really wanted to do so, as there are other possibilities too
remember we don’t know the plane is really where they are looking for it, they haven’t found a single trace
Chris – you sound like the trust the data? If you do the plane was falling rapidly as it crossed the 7th but when we go down there we find nothing – ya follow?
Yupp, there should be debris all around.
@Captain Feroz, do you have a source on that?
@DeepBlue, if someone inside the cockpit wants to open the door all they have to do is open the door. They don’t need to isolate the left AC bus. If someone outside the cockpit wants to de-power the cockpit door there’s a circuit breaker in the E/E bay that can do that, it has nothing to do with the circuit breakers that de-power the satcom.
@airlandseaman, As many people may not be familiar with the term “AES,” I’ve been using “satcom” to refer to the entire system of which the SDU is a part.
Just for a break in the thread of the present conversation. Had to put it out there, just because I don’t think people are aware of it. Not trying to beat a drum by any means. Don’t even think that.
http://mh370corner.blogspot.com
@Jeff
Deepblue, I believe, is saying that disabling the left bus (from the cockpit) will prevent anyone from getting in to the cockpit.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
It seems to me the perfect reason to isolate the left bus.
This has now been solved. The 18:25 re=power (bus) makes perfect sense as well. The threat from the cabin is over.
@Jeff
Just a thought regarding a possible motive for de-powering IFE via the left AC bus. Would shutting down the IFE knock out all the satellite phones built into the passenger seats?
@Robert Ashman
“Pilot suicide? Too elaborate. He may have killed the FO and suicided at the wheel, leaving the plane on autopilot, but why not just dive into the sea?”
One explanation might be that the perpetrator didn´t wanted that the investigators would able to blame him after an analysis of the blackboxes.
But why ? It shouldn´t concern him. He would be dead.
An explanation might be to create one big mystery to reveal how incompetent the malaysian government really is. A government who is unable to give answers of highly urgent questions should not lead an country anymore. This would be best preconditions for an politcal change in Malaysia after over 50 years of political dominance by the National Front party.
Just notice, the politcal leader of the People’s Justice Party, Anwahr Ibrahim was sentenced to prison (5 yrs.) just 8 hours before MH370 took off. Far worse was the ban of Ibrahim to stand as a candidate for his party in 2018. In other words, Ibrahim was and is politcally dead after the trail on 03/07/14.
And who wished that Anwar Ibrahim should lead Malaysia some day ? Yes, it was “Z”. He was sparkling supporting him.
@Lou Villa
Exactly. Go dark, fly OVER the country, kill a bunch of people (many Chinese), and then disappear in the SIO.
Way to go Malaysia.
@Spencer
Yes, but why all this chinese in particular ? Maybe because to increase the political pressure to the government by the foreign ministry of China. China is an superpower and China would requiring answers where all his citizens went but Malaysia would be unable to answer this question. They would have no idea.
Politcal pressure from inside and outside. This could (and from the perspective out of the perpetrator “must”) lead to an collapse of the political structures in this country.
Some people are doing bad things when they completely desperately and pissed off.Also pilots.
@Lou Villa
Yep. The trial, then the opportunistic flight (with newbie FO), then the Chinese factor, nighttime etc…perfect storm.
And it is a very fair assumption to say that his state of mind that evening would be nothing short of f%#king ballistic.
He doubtless would have been beyond irate. Somehow people on this thread seem to forget this little tidbit.
And to your point about political collapse…Hishammuddin and Najib are all but done. The cat will eventually come out of the bag, and when it does collapse is imminent.
The mystery that’s not a mystery at all. Z’s ONLY mission was to embarrass Malaysia in the most potent manner possible, resulting in grave repercussions for the regime, period. Tragically, this included murdering a plane full of people.
@ Spencer
Go dark ,fly OVER the country, kill a bunch of people (many Chinese) and the disappear in the SIO
@LouVilla
…..This could lead to an collapse of the political structures in this country.
Wouldn’t the best argument against such a motive be, that it did not work at all until today and that there are no signs that it will work in the near future? Even the political pressure from China to find the plane seems in a magnitude not comparable to the loss of Chinese people.
If the accident could somehow be blamed to the Malaysian government another outcome would be possible. But without evidence, without a convicted culprit this blame is not possible. So did Shah miss that and failed or is your theory flawed?
@RetiredF4
If one believes, as I do without ANY doubt, that Malaysia has known since shortly after IGARI that Zaharie was blasting through their FIR, then i would suggest to you that Malaysia is deep in the woods. And they are not going to be emerging into fields of joy and greener pastures.
I also don’t believe Shah was intending to hide HIS culpability, necessarily. I mean, it’s pretty damn obvious.
So you must view his actions and thought processes from this perspective, IMO.
“The mystery that’s not a mystery at all. Z’s ONLY mission was to embarrass Malaysia in the most potent manner possible, resulting in grave repercussions for the regime, period. Tragically, this included murdering a plane full of people.”
Yes, this is an possible explanation for the motive. Absolutely.
A question to you : When do you believe could the perpetrator have planned all this ?
I ask to myself this question every day.
Another question : Could be the videos Z had made be a hint of what he had might planned ? With the right interpretations – This videos might reveal previous knowledge.All this headlines on the newspapers he had planted before his homework began could tell us the hole story possibly in an encrypted shape.
All hints might be there. The “Red eye flight (Vampires have red eyes and can fly)”, the “The banking turn of a shadow (MH370 ?)”, “Someone drowned in a sea”, “(The plane) drops out of the sky in the fall (James Bond presented his new movie “Skyfall” by dropping out of the sky over Afghanistan to visit the brtish troops there),”(The plane) ends in the twilight (around 08:19 MYT)”, the devil right under an picture who looks like to be coordinates. It could be all there in the video “Window seal” right on Youtube.
@Lou Villa
I’ve watched his videos and read his social media posts so many times that I feel like I knew the guy.
I’ve seen the ‘window seal’ video and will go have another look.
I think Z had been planning this for sometime…probably since shortly after the election defeat. My guess is that if the KL appellate court failed to overturn the sentence/verdict, then he would set his plan into action. At least SOME of it had to be premeditated, I would think.
If you pay close enough attention to his language (I’m sure you have), it is clear that he was struggling internally with the duty/obligation/desire of an imprimatur of sorts. His heroes were those that sacrificed themselves, and he aspired to the same.
To me, at least, the action he took comes as no surprise. For his actions to match his words, this was an inevitable course.
In a way he left himself no choice. He went all in 2013, and was justifiably sickened and disgusted by BN/UMNO antics.
Then he goes silent for some months. I suspect he was being persecuted quite aggressively, thus the rage grew even greater.
I’m off to ‘window seal’. This is interesting.
cheers.
Maybe I was expressing myself wrong, so I ask again.
About 400 days after the disapearance without a trace I see no embarresment yet of the government, no big pressure from the Chinese and no gain of the opposition. Nothing of those aims Shah was after acvording to your theory did happen until now, but might have come true already if Shah would have made this deed in public. What makes you believe that this will change if nothing is found, which according to you was one major aim of Shah’s action?
I see no logic in your argument.
“Wouldn’t the best argument against such a motive be, that it did not work at all until today and that there are no signs that it will work in the near future ?”
When the perpertrator is confident his plan is perfect and his plan MUST lead to the wished outcome, do you believe that this guy has any doubt his plan could not lead to the wished outcome ?
Yes, when it was the plan to destroy the malaysian government, the plan failed. But from the perspective out of the perpetrator there was no room for such thoughts. Possibly he was on a mission and absolutly certain his plan was perfect.
Martyrs are thinking exactly this way in my opinion. Z said in the past he is an rebel, he should let the rebel out. Let he the rebel out ? Maybe, i really don´t know.
@RetiredF4
Not surprised you fail to se the logic.
Do you see the logical component at work here that it was probably Zaharie that did this?
If your answer to this question is yes, then you should have a stab at the logic yourself.
If the answer is no (you don’t see Z as being far and away the most likely suspect), then we have nothing to discuss.
You can join in the folly of Russian and spoofs etc…
So I’ll wait for an answer before I again address your ‘concern’.
@PhilD,
There is a switch in the cockpit that isolates the IFE and passenger seats; no need to kill left AC.
OZ
The ‘logic; is that an MAS pilot just stole your plane, murdered 238 people, flew circles around your country, and disappeared to NOWHERE.
And you guys did what?
Is this a logic you can’t comprehend?
@Spencer
Did you noticed Z became thinner and thinner over the months ?
Lets compare this both photos….
Looks very normal :
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Capt-Zaharie-Ahmad-Shah.jpg
http://ui.sina.com/2014/0318/U47P5029DT20140318083456.jpg
Compared to the photo above he looks by far thinner over the months. Maybe the result of some drugs against his pain because of his osteoarthritis ? The FI says no, he was not on drugs but did the DCA really know ?
http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2014/03/24/1226863/710743-67f16b88-b342-11e3-9592-fced9bc5820e.jpg
http://cdn2.everyjoe.com/wp-content/gallery/zaharie-ahmad-shah/zaharie-ahmad-shah-photos-5.jpg
This are also an issue that concerns me for over 16 months. What was going on in the mind of the Cpt ? I really wish i know.
@Spencer
All of your arguments make sense.
But we should not forget….
1.) Z was not political fanatic
2.) He was a husband (3 kids)
3.) He lived with the upper class
4.) He owned two houses in Shah Alam and Subang Jaya
5.) He had no financial difficulties
6.) He did an great job for over 30 years and had never ever any problems with his employer
This are facts we can´t simply wash aside.