Note: This paper was prepared by noteworthy independent MH370 investigator Brock McEwen, who set out to answer the timely question: has the soon-to-be-concluded search of 60,000 square kilometers of seabed in the southern Indian Ocean falsified the flight scenario proposed by the Australia Transport Safety Board and endorsed by unaffiliated researchers belonging to the Independent Group? Through extensive modeling, McEwen calculates that the search has covered more than 99 percent of the potential endpoints predicted by ATSB and IG flightpath scenarios. He concludes that “if both the Inmarsat signal data and its interpretation by search officials is valid, then the search should have turned up wreckage by now. This offers strong circumstantial evidence that either the Inmarsat data or its interpretation is invalid. Accordingly – unless search officials know something we don’t – the announced decision to spend another year searching around the improbable edges of a discredited theory (while this paper does not address surface debris, its absence likewise serves as strong Bayesian counter-evidence) is an extremely poor one.” — Jeff Wise
This paper stochastically models MH370 end-of flight dynamics, and finds no evidence to support last month’s announced continuation of status quo search strategies. This finding is consistent with a documented pattern of decisions by MH370 search leaders which make no sense. A rigorous, independent audit of both the Inmarsat data’s entire chain of custody and MH370 search leadership is recommended.
In a joint statement issued April 16, 2015, Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai, Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss and Chinese Transport Minister Yang Chuantang indicated the search for Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 (MH370) would continue to focus on the deep-sea search in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO):
“Should the aircraft not be found within the current search area, ministers agreed to extend the search by an additional 60,000 square kilometres to bring the search area to 120,000 square kilometres and thereby cover the entire highest probability area identified by expert analysis,” they said in a joint statement. “Ministers recognise the additional search area may take up to a year to complete given the adverse weather conditions in the upcoming winter months.”
In committing to this extension – described graphically as a modest search zone expansion in all four directions – search leaders implicitly assume that
- the Inmarsat data is sufficiently accurate and precise to permit interpretation by investigators AND
- the conclusion they drew (flight to fuel exhaustion, followed by pilotless spiral to impact) is correct, YET
- the wreckage this conclusion predicts remains outside the areas already searched by side-scan
This paper tests this hypothesis, via stochastic simulation of plausible post-fuel exhaustion flight paths.
You can read the full paper here.