BBC (UK) A wild and chilling theory about what happened to MH370, by Robert Cottrell
What if the MH370 flew north and landed safely on a Russian airstrip in Kazakhstan? Of course it’s a wild theory. It’s also a great yarn, with just enough data points to sound plausible.
Le Monde (France): Un an après, l’improbable disparition du MH370, by Florency de Changy
Mais si l’avion n’est pas au fond de l’océan Indien, où est-il ? Pour certains, il ne s’agit plus d’affiner des calculs déjà suraffinés, mais bien de remettre en cause la démarche tout entière. Se peut-il qu’une partie des données Inmarsat aient été trafiquées ? C’est la thèse du journaliste américain Jeff Wise qui vient de publier un livre numérique The Plane That Was not There (« L’avion qui n’était pas là »). Il propose un scénario dans lequel les « vraies fausses » informations d’Inmarsat ne sont là que pour faire diversion, alors que les vrais coupables sont les deux Ukrainiens et le Russe qui étaient assis à l’avant de l’avion et dont les passeports sont les seuls à ne pas avoir été vérifiés par leurs autorités nationales respectives. Le Groupe indépendant a immédiatement exclu Jeff Wise.
Das Bild (Germany): Das Sind die Theorien
Der amerikanische Wissenschaftsautor und Pilot Jeff Wise, der das Drama um MH370 seit Monaten für den US-Nachrichtensender CNN begleitet, glaubt sogar: Rebellen könnten die Maschine nach Zentralasien entführt haben – um die Boeing eines Tages für ihre Zwecke einzusetzen. Wise zu BILD: „Die Idee, MH 370 könnte nach Kasachstan verschleppt worden sein, ist nicht neu.”
Il Post (Italy): La teoria di Jeff Wise sul volo MH370, di Andrea Fiorello
Un anno dopo la scomparsa nel cielo dell’Asia del volo Malaysia Airlines MH370 – di cui non si hanno notizie dalle 2,40 del 3 marzo 2014, quando i radar persero le tracce dell’aereo circa due ore dopo il decollo da Kuala Lumpur con destinazione Pechino – il giornalista americano Jeff Wise ha pubblicato sul New York Magazine un lungo articolo che racconta la sua personale storia di “esperto” del volo MH370 e gli sviluppi delle teorie su cosa sia successo all’aereo, che lo hanno portato di recente a un’ipotesi che racconta come incredibile e convincente insieme.
RT (Russia): ‘True story!’ MSM spins theory that Putin hijacked MH370 and landed it in Kazakhstan, by Nebojsa Malic
Judging by his observations about MH17 and Russia, Wise has clearly fallen victim to what psychologists call confirmation bias – a tendency to see and interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions. However, almost the entire mainstream press in the West suffers from this when it comes to Russia – prompting several commentators to dub the phenomenon ‘Putin Derangement Syndrome.’ Witness the recent announcement by a “Pentagon think-tank” that Vladimir Putin is supposedly autistic, dutifully reported as fact. Now it seems Jeff Wise’s fantasy is due for the same treatment.
Daily Mail (UK): Vladimir Putin ordered Russian special forces to steal MH370 and secretly landed it at huge space port in Kazakhstan, claims expert
Jeff Wise, a U.S. science writer who spearheaded CNN’s coverage of the Boeing 777-200E, has based his outlandish theory on pings that the plane gave off for seven hours after it went missing… However Wise admits in New York Magazine that he does not know why Vladimir Putin would want to steal a plane full of people and that his idea is somewhat ‘crazy’.
Associated Press: Alien abduction? Stolen by Russia? MH370 theories keep coming, by Jane Wardell
The Independent Group (IG), comprised of around a dozen satellite, data, maths and aviation experts, expelled Wise this week following articles linked to his book.
“It’s a bunch of garbage,” said New Zealand-based IG member Duncan Steel.
Maclean’s (Canada): Inside the search for Flight MH370, by Chris Sorenson
Of course, because nothing to do with MH370 is ever simple, one of the Independent Group’s members, science writer and CNN aviation analyst Jeff Wise, recently wrote an article for New York magazine that laid out an alternative scenario, where MH370 might have flown north and landed at a remote runway in Kazakhstan. He called it his pet theory on MH370 and claims it fits the available data as well as any other.
News Corp Australia: Expert Jeff Wise links Vladimir Putin to MH370 disaster, by James Law
Now, a far-out theory from one of CNN’s chief commentators on the aviation disaster, science journalist Jeff Wise, has been circulated worldwide — and has more credibility than you might think.
WAToday (Australia): MH370 flew to Kazakhstan: Jeff Wise outlines new theory, by Michael Koziol
Others who have examined the hypothesis regard it as fanciful. Aviation expert Sylvia Wrigley, who wrote her own book on MH370, said no aircraft had previously been tracked using Inmarsat’s BFO data. “The idea that it was even possible was a major revelation, even to Inmarsat,” she wrote. Therefore, the notion that hijackers would deliberately falsify the data in order to lead investigators on a wild goose chase was “crazy” and “inconceivably sophisticated”, she said.
La Press (Canada): Et Si L’Avion S’Était Posé… Au Kazakhstan?, par Philippe Mercure
Les gens qui défendent des théories du complot cherchent habituellement à vous persuader à tout prix qu’ils détiennent la vérité. Jeff Wise est un autre type de personnage. Le pilote et journaliste scientifique américain a été l’un de ceux qui ont le plus commenté la disparition de l’avion MH370 depuis un an. Et il vient de lancer une thèse particulièrement controversée, celle voulant que l’avion ait été dérouté par des Russes, qui l’auraient fait atterrir… au Kazakhstan. La théorie, on s’en doute, a été accueillie avec beaucoup de scepticisme, incluant par son propre auteur.
« Il y a des matins où je me réveille et je me dis que c’est ce qui est arrivé. Et il y a d’autres matins où je juge que c’est complètement fou… et que je le suis aussi. »
GQ: The Vanishing, by Sean Flynn
The specifics are very technical, and there are problems matching parts of it to the available data. “The fuel model,” Wise says, for instance, “doesn’t really allow it.” The route would have traversed militarized and tightly monitored airspace, and the motive is completely unclear, except Vladimir Putin is an irrational thug. But it’s a reasoned, good-faith exercise, and Wise argues Kazakhstan is more probable than any other terrestrial landing and no more improbable than a crash into the ocean. “You either think the debris must have washed up by now or you think it evaded all those northern radars,” he says. “Which seems more impossible to you?”
@Arthur Sorkin, I saw the article — I’m not really sure how sound his basis is for saying it’s not possible. I’d like to see some more detailed reasoning.
@Drake, Freescale could be a motive. Hard to cite evidence one way or another but it’s certainly conceivable.
StenabG – Jorn – If it was pointed that way that night then they would have seen it alright, I reckon that’s understood, as a former ADF member myself. But their statements that it wasn’t is rather typical for that system. They would need a reason to be looking there at the time and there apparently wasn’t? If it was, then the Oz PM burnt himself with those underwater pings for no reason.
@Matty don’t pay attention on propaganda, Russia doesn’t function the same way as western world and their government doesn’t need to run public polls to start any action (see Crimea for example).
The launcher has been present already for several days at that moment and it’s how Antonov was shot down. Ukraine knew that rebels weren’t experienced with BUK so they sent several civilian planes down that route hoping rebels would bite and so it happened…both sides are guilty in my book.
StevanG – “don’t pay attention to propaganda”
Putin is wildly popular because he invests an enormous amount on – propaganda.
@Jeff Freescale employs 17.000 people, any intelligence agency would find 10 out of them to obtain the information they needed, this or that way
Isn’t that interesting.
Someone in Malaysia was also talking about MH370, UKRAINE and KAZAKHSTAN. Way back in fact. On Facebook — in June 2014.
Her posts appear to have been deleted.
http://bit.ly/1wc77IR
StevanG,
As a matter of pure economics, if a spoof or hack or degradation of the data, before or after it was logged, costs less than the value of the plane’s disappearance, it can’t be ruled out.
I have no idea what the value of the cargo was, what the passengers would command as ransom or as hits, or what the value of the plane was for any purpose. However, I suspect that any combination of the above far exceeds the cost of interfering with the accuracy of the data.
If you can buy a hacker for 1 million and the plane is worth $239 million in ransom and another $20 million as a weapon, a hack/spoof can’t be ruled out.
It’s because the people are living much much better now than before him, it’s still nowhere near western standards and it’s still full of corruption and crime but at least people can afford something they couldn’t before.
We’ll see if sanctions will change that(and we are already straying way OT).
@Nihon it’s just another conspiracy theory that coincides with jeff’s one. Nothing worth attention IMO.
@JS Anything really worth such operation would be transported on military plane.
Hack could indeed cost even less than a million but you still need the cockpit access, you still need piloting skills and you still need viable 3rd world destination that doesn’t include passage through mainland if you don’t want to get intercepted. So the only real world solution would be Somalia or somewhere around if range would allow for it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2982697/Sister-MH370-pilot-calls-people-stop-blaming-brother-jet-s-disappearance-Malaysia-s-transport-minister-says-search-drawing-board-not-May.html
She is a good sister, however there was no other person on the plane capable of pulling this.
Also I don’t believe his intentions were sinister(or at least not to harm people), if they really finished in SIO it was probably by accident.
StevanG – actually there are a number of missing jets in the world atm and some of them have indeed showed up in Africa before now.
Just for clarity though, are you saying that Putin is a victim of western propaganda?
Hi Jeff,
Love the Spoof theory.
My only hole is- a large majority of the passengers would have had cellphones too. One of them would have made an attempt if not several.
But if the hijackers bought along a cell signal jammer…
@Richard: at first read, looks like a very well-thought out model, extremely well-presented. I commend your efforts.
But if I’m reading you correctly, the problem I have is that the BFO data is a SET; if you throw out what was once the best-estimate three-space heading of the LAST value in that set – on the grounds that the plane wasn’t found where that interpretation predicted – why stop there? Why not disregard the indications of the penultimate reading? Or (as Jeff has) ALL BFO readings? Or (as I have) the signal data altogether?
If the search to date rules OUT the final reading’s indications, then it should at least cast aspersions on the entire set.
Or have I misinterpreted your note (at end of Section 2) not to consider the 00:19:29 data point?
@All
Esos Christos?
When, after all, with all it’s said and done….Impossible to understand. Trying to believe that it went to those K-Stan’s of unknown origin. WHY…do we give up so easy?? Non so fond, as the search.
@All
In keeping with my unrelenting and reprehensible assault on Zaharie, I exhibit the following to disprove the assertion from the NYT times that there is no discernible motive. the lack of due diligence in to this mans life is almost criminal, derelict at best. Here are some of his 6-700+ posts:
In these posts he espoused blood sacrifice for the greater good, he lavishly praised martyrs, he called for violent resistance, he posted a picture of himself wearing a democracy is dead t-shirt.
Some quotes from Facebook:
1) “There is a rebel in each and every once of us. LET IT OUT! Don’t waste your life on mundane life style.
2) “So it’s time they try and dismantle us. We are not going to be quiet.
3) “Non vi si pens quanto sangue costa” translated = “There they don’t think about how much blood it costs”.
This comes from canto XXIX of Dante’s Inferno. The context here is Beatrice deploring the lack of appreciation for the martyr’s sacrifices. Captain Shah first highlights this quote in an article from a friend…then uses it himself in reference to PKR members and others he believes to be targeted by the govt.
The poem he posted on his Facebook page shows a dramatic sense of morbidity:
The SOLDIER FOUGHT HIS BATTLE SILENTLY
“Not his the strife that stays for set of sun;
It seemed this warfare never might be done;
Through glaring day and blinding night fought he.
There came no hand to help, no eye to see;
No herald’s voice proclaimed the fight begun;
No trumpet, when the bitter field was won,
Sounded abroad the soldier’s victory.
As if the struggle had been light, he went,
Gladly, life’s common road a little space;
Nor any knew how his heart’s blood was spent;
Yet there were some who after testified
They saw a glory grow upon his face;
And all men praised the soldier when he died.
He definitely had a sense of hero idolatry.
If nothing else, this sort of language is certainly suggestive of a man determined to take matters into his own hands.. Wonder how best to said ambition?
Spencer…it’s really a sealed deal, but of course all the luatic fringe theories are free to be further explored…to the detriment of the NOK.
And then there is the young and recalcitrant adam Idi, currently jailed by BN He was a hero to Zaharie.
Spencer I fail to see how talking about fighting for something leads to crashing a plane in the SIO.
People talk s___ all the time. Some people even act on it. But most of it is just rambling. I suspect if you looked hard enough you’d find a Facebook-vocal political dissident on every flight. Just like on every flight that ever crashed, somebody somehow missed it. It proves nothing by itself.
As I’ve tried to point out participating in politics is accepting a set of rules. He had adhered to those rules, and aviation was the real love of his life. I am enagaed with politics and belong to a party and I have never flown but the idea of putting a plane into the ground is anathema to everything. The people closest to him saw nothing.
@JS
By itself agreed, but in the larger picture it reveals motive..which the defenders either naively or calculatingly suggest did not exist
It goes to motive. If you can’t understand this with respect, you’re lost in the weeds.
This is not necessarily central to the evidence. The evidence is the timing at hand-off, the failure to read back the frequency, the failure to contact HCMATC, the flight path caken which suggests someone intimately familiar with the regional FIR’s, Zaharies voice being the one identified as making the final transmission, his glare into the security camera at check in, Nic Huzan all but pointing the finger at him etc etc…
He HATED BN and felt it was ‘his time’.
I’ll best my net worth on Zaharie being the SOLE perp…why no takers if I get slammed and demonized for sticking to my guns.
You see, their is NO other possible/plausible scenario unless you care to be a part of the many lunatic fringe crazies that continue to perpetuate, to the families detriment, the most ludicrous of scenarios.
@Matty
As I’ve tried to point out participating in politics is accepting a set of rules. He had adhered to those rules, and aviation was the real love of his life. I am enagaed with politics and belong to a party and I have never flown but the idea of putting a plane into the ground is anathema to everything. The people closest to him saw nothing.
LOL. He encouraged time and again that others NOT adhere to these’ rules’. Have you bothered to yourself delve into his political life.
Then, in one post, he says that it is HE that must now join the ranks of the recalcitrants.
Let THE REBEL OUT..he says..and he then applies this wisdom to his own person.
But you keep spinning a bogus narrative that suits your fancy, it sadly seems.
@Spencer – I’m not saying it does not exist. We agree on that part. But, it could exist for any number of others, as well.
I don’t like to judge other’s theories, even the ones normally labeled outlandish. I do, however, like to look critically at each piece of evidence.
I’ve pointed out that the SIO is a prime location for a spoof, a suicide, a deliberate disappearance, or a “ghost flight.” The SIO fits many motives.
Likewise, a lot of the points you raise are consistent with many motives.
The skirting of the FIRs is consistent with ANY unauthorized flight. The glare at the security camera is consistent with either an intended diversion, or a “help me, I’m under duress.” Remember that Mohammed Atta did NOT glare at cameras – he was cool as ice. We should not overread. Finger pointing? Well, dead men don’t speak, so anyone with more culpability than Zaharie would gladly point at him. Unfortunately, even those with no culpability, but intent on keeping it that way, would point a finger at the dead man. His voice? Is that a “I’m about to drive off with a plane” voice, or a “this gun on my head is annoying me voice?” Stress is not a good indicator of guilt.
So, while you raise points that support your theory, some support opposite theories just as well.
@JS
he skirting of the FIRs is consistent with ANY unauthorized flight.
Uh, funny that Hishammudin said ‘we knew it was from our airspace, and we knew it was friendly. Conclusion: they knew it was MH370 the entire time. Hard to believe that hijackers would be so adroit in their navigation.
Explain how Nic Huzan would have more culpability than Zahari? I’m lost.
Yeah, and Zaharie wasn’t so cool. He pissed the fuck off, and he was on a mission to exact revenge…tragically at the expense of 238 innocents. If you look above, he fancied himself as a Lone SOLDIER.
Anyways, the totality of the evidence is overwhelming.
And no one spoofed shit, But go ahead and chase down the rabbit holes to futility. Just sucks for these families.
Spencer – Rebel/recalcitrant etc. If he was sitting in an isolated cabin polishing a shotgun I could understand you joining those dots. Rebellion for some people is getting a haircut or getting arrested, for some it’s committing a serious offence. Which one was he?
@Matty
Serious/ernest question. Have you bothered to scour through his social media postings? If you have, and if you still harbor doubt as to his desire to do WHATEVER it takes to bring down BN, then I must humbly question you agenda. I say this respectfully, as I have always appreciated your intellect and the info you have brought to this blog.
Where I see fire and flames, you seem to nothing more than a vocal mouthpiece…but the real evidence it the goings on on the flight that evening. Something called command, control, opportunity, execution etc…and all the flight anomalies that point unequivocally to a deliberate act.
You’re free to linger of the lunatic fringe, but it very much is that. A deliberate act, which this unquestionably was, leave one with two choices: Zaharie or preposterous. Bottom line.
@Spencer
They will never agree to the ALT. They will never agree to the the speed. Who does normal, when executing the FMT?
Agari & Penang prove it.
Good Night….370 out.
Spencer – So you rate my intellect? I can think of a few crunchers who don’t. In Malaysia rebellion can mean signing a petition. And as one observer there noted – ordinarily, if you were suspected of doing anything like it they would swoop on your next of kin. In his case he was aligned with the opposition so he was already the enemy. Fact is as I see it Spencer, Zaharie’s online postings would pale in comparison with the average mindless tie-dyed G20 Che Guevara loving screamer. And even they are not mass murderers.
@Matty
I was attempting to be honest and genuine in how I view your contributions, and your mild mannered demeanor.
We’ll just disagree on Zaharie. It must be noted that Zaharie had at his disposal a tool with which great power and destruction could be harnessed.
For the life of me I don’t /can’t understand how someone of your good sense can put you lot in with the like s Nihonmama, Brock and a few others. This blog is being bombarded by so much nonsense and material unrelated to anything MH370. It’s the NOK that suffers (according LGHamiliton they are ecstatic about the rubbish being promulgated here).
For the last time, I’ll pony up any amount of money that Z is proven to be the sole actor. All other theories are jus outright insane.
Cheers…and good luck with you conspiracy hunting.
But as Nihonama put it, perhaps I am just beginning to wake up. LOL
Care to bet any money on Z’s guilt or innocence??? I thought not.
@Spencer – I’m not saying you’re wrong, just that the evidence doesn’t prove that you’re right either.
The facts are sparse enough that whoever is culpable could easily make it look like Zaharie, who admittedly has a motive. But that’s exactly what I’m afraid of – while you think he’s guilty, some of us think he could be a scapegoat. Is he a possible suspect? Of course he is. But we just can’t limit ourselves to him.
I think you could ease up on the others, maybe. A lot of us write here because there are interesting opposing viewpoints. Some conversations get pretty heated, even. But the “nonsense” will stop when the predicted paths turn up a plane. In the meantime, isn’t any theory on equal footing with the SIO cruise?
@Spencer
Hey Dude, your not alone. Let us take into account.. The Whatever-Stans, Funk-Ah-Stans, & Bull-shit-ah-stans. Not to forget the 007 ..Gold, secret weapons, spoofing Russian agents leading to the murder of 239 human beings, leading to the demolition of a hangar & the parts going to the highest bidder?…no wait. We’ll paint her & flyer round the world & no one will know…no wait….we’ll turn her into a bomb, knowing full well that plenty of planes already exist…no wait…turn her into a bar called “Flight 370” (Where nothing is ever mentioned)
Folks don’t want to grasp the reality of Z’s actions, nor the reality that it HAPPENED!
As for the Aussie’s calling it quits, is harder than the act it’s self. Too soon….NOT EVEN A YEAR!!!! 447 took TWO!!!
@Matty
“Just for clarity though, are you saying that Putin is a victim of western propaganda?”
No, and he has his own propaganda to counter it so he is far from victim at least in his own country where it does matter.
@spencer I agree he was the only one capable of pulling this off but even if the plane really is in SIO it doesn’t mean it was his original intention, there might be a conflict/fight on board or who knows what happened when they made the turn around Indonesia.
Logic says that someone pulling such an extraordinary thing would want to be very much alive to see the results of his enterpreneurship.
@JS
“I’ve pointed out that the SIO is a prime location for a spoof, a suicide, a deliberate disappearance, or a “ghost flight.” The SIO fits many motives.”
how? If it was suicide with intention of killing as many people as possible he would hit some tall building in Penang, if it was deliberate disappearance he would descend in a low flight straight after entering IO and look for a calm patch of sea to sink the plane intact (he had 3-4 hours of flight…could find many), he wouldn’t wait for fuel exhaustion and loss of thrust that would make the plane much less controllable and he wouldn’t risk coming to a very rough seas, especially in roaring forties.
“Ghost flight”, why turning the plane towards Australia then? Why not directing it to the middle of IO far from anything?
spencer ~ Posted March 7, 2015 at 3:02 AM
“It’s the NOK that suffers (according [to LGHamiltonUSA] they are ecstatic about the rubbish being promulgated here).”
LGHamiltonUSA ~ Posted February 24, 2015 at 11:31 PM ~ http://jeffwise.net/2015/02/23/what-went-on-at-yubileyniy/ ~ Page 3)
“@ spencer ~ On the contrary, the Families told me they are pleased that the MH370 community is looking at alternative paths, especially along the northern arc. They acknowledge and are grateful for everyone’s efforts here at JW.”
Hi Jeff ~ In addition to this poster’s foul language and abusive manner, people will notice that my previous remark has been mischaracterized.
~LG~
>..the problem I have is that the BFO data is a SET..
@Brock
I think that is a simplistic position to take, the dataset is not the Word of God (“Believe all of it or none of it”). That doesn’t mean your position is wrong, of course.
We know the BFO is a function of the navigation data that is being fed to the AES, while the BTO is not. Since the aircraft is in an unusual mode after loss of the second engine (RAT/APU etc) this might have affected the navigation data chain and corrupted the BFO (the navigation data has to be very close to dead-on for the correction chain to work).
If the Investigation has run tests on an actual chain under the expected circumstances (or something close to it – I doubt anyone has tried a double engine shutdown hands-off on a real B777 and simulators won’t answer this particular question) and believes the 00:19:29 BFO value is unimpeachable and can only indicate a very high rate of descent, then a search 30km each side of the nominal 7th arc (the 60,000sqkm) is going to rule out the primary area.
By the way I liked your “..ordinance which effectively disintegrate their target at altitude..” – that’s very Old Testament religion. (sorry, I know it’s a typo).
@Spencer,
Why do you attack everybody who dares to come up with a different narrative? You’re not doing yourself and your scenario any favors. You challenge Matty’s or other posters’ intellect? Have you ever heard about social intelligence?
That said, Zaharie’s social pages entries do give me pause. And you’re right they shouldn’t be outright dismissed as not being relevant to this mystery. The problem is that a turnaround with subsequent crash into the SIO doesn’t really make sense. It’s not much of a political demonstration. And if he planned a suicide ride he could’ve flown directly into the open sea. Personally I don’t buy the idea that he wanted to say good bye to Penang. And, while Malaysia’s officials got some heat, it was mostly Zaharie himself who got maligned. Anwar Ibrahim even distanced himself from Zaharie. Zaharie was a very smart guy. If he planned some sort of political statement, I’m sure he could’ve come up with a more sophisticated plot than hiding the plane in the SIO. Even if it was his intention to create an aviation mystery for the ages, he probably would’ve let us know that he was the mastermind.
But again, we might make a mistake by ignoring his political opposition, his social pages entries and his state of mind. There are several possible narratives and not all make him necessarily the perp.
A comment addressed to everybody:
Let’s all do our best to keep this forum friendly and productive. Point out the flaws in others’ arguments but don’t impugn their integrity or intelligence. Please keep language PG.
Lastly, I want to personally express my gratitude to all of your for taking the time and effort to share your insights here. It’s been a pleasure as well as incredibly enlightening to take part in this exercise in collective intelligence.
Jeff
while I like Bajkonur site too, I still believe that many things which happened during last, say, 5-7 years are ALL about masivelly parallel cognitive behavioral therapy injected into media, about stupidity of worldwide hate, including this final trigger case; dont ask me why I think so, I dont know too…
Spencer – I think we agree on one thing and that is something sinister went on, I just wouldn’t tie that noose just yet. We aren’t jurors either, our opinions have limited weight so you could always let that burden down?
StevanG – Nihonmama made the same point not long ago: had he kept it further away from the coast here it would have made life that much more difficult for everyone.
All – I got interested in spoofing because the reconstructed flight doesn’t look real to the naked eye. The 18.25 event.
@Jeff,
Thanks for complimenting all of us. On the whole we aren’t such a bad lot, no?
Have you looked into John Foglia’s assertion in Forbes Magazine that a takeover from the E/E bay wouldn’t work? That’s a serious argument. Unfortunately he isn’t all that specific and he fails to reckognize that in your scenario not everything has necessarily to be done from the E/E bay. Gerry Soejatman for example offered a different scenario re: BFO spoofs,and it’s done from the cabin, not from the E/E bay.
@Matty It’s the turn towards Australia that’s perplexing, why would he bother turning there after entering IO if he didn’t have the plan to land somewhere?!
Bear in mind we know the turn has been made but we don’t know (for sure) if it was really a straight flight path or if the flight was erratic through the IO leading to a northern part of the southern arc.
Math says 1st, logic&motivation say 2nd.
Spencer – Proving Zaharie was the sole actor may not even be possible so don’t make that bet whatever you do.
My gut feeling is not for Baikonur by the way, I’m just happy to play around with any old angle because nothing looks right. You could say that neither of the nth/sth corridors look right? If it didn’t turn but carried straight out west for whatever reason then the BTO’s would have told the story and maybe noone would have ever heard of BFO’s? But a general poser: if a spoof was predicated on two dimensions only, namely moving towards the satellite or moving away, would it not be the most logical, albeit technically harder way to create a false track for hijackers, remembering the rebooted AES didn’t quite behave the same way and some of the data is in the wacky basket? If you planned to head west you could prepare for that??? In other words a BTO spoof. Then we have a Curtin event to focus on.
Remembering also that physical access was one impediment to a BTO spoof until Jerry’s photo’s popped out.
Pi-Cide
@Chris Butler @Spencer
From scientific logic we need to establish, why the flight continued after IGARI, and why it dramatically changed the heading. If a mechanical failure as a cause can nearly be ruled out , we would have to discuss a deliberate capture of the plane.
(We cannot rule it out completely, since the problem of the mechanical scenario being, that we observed unobservables(!), we didnt observe a mayday call, but the abscence of it etc. – so still some exotic scenario can eventually have happened 0,5 % probability)
And while the radar data are neither sourced nor accessible for the public and are supplied by a unreliable party, we have the problem, that we have no real good forensical evidence that the plane turned at IGARI. Although common sense would place the plane into the straits, we have only weak data to support this. Therefore it would be of great help if a reliable motif could be found that would in a sound way explain, why the plane was captured and why it changed the heading (both of these are different events for logical formalization). Therefore i ask you, on which psychological theory you base the pi-cide assumption and how you would rate the probability of your theory compared to the other capture scenarios:
pi-cide vs.
a) pi-jacking (political)
b) terrorist hijacking
c) political hijacking
d) heist
e) test run for new roads of crime (cybercrime)
f) test run for electronic attack
40,000 years before our time, when people came across each other, it was eat or meet. They had to be able to read the psyche of the other in an instant, to see, whether this one was low on fat supply and therefore very hungry, or whether he was looking for a different food. If the other was hungry, you would not have much time to react … This might be one of the reasons therefore, why psychology as a daughter of astrology is one of the oldest sciences we have, with myriads of suicide reports in form of myths, tales, rites. There are well known recognizable patterns for each different kind of suicide. And i think , after one year, you should be able to state which one would support your theory.
From what i read from Spencer, you think the messages on facebook characterize him as fanatic who wanted to die for a cause, like what happened in Copenhagen, Paris and Sidney. It confuses me quite a bit, that MH370, as an object, was in no way a political target and we also have the problem of the unobservable, the problem of the abscence of any confession.
Maybe i misunderstood, and you want to say, that Z. was in a depression and his signals on facebook were a sign for the coming suicide. Then you miss one thing: the best thing to do in a mental depression is, to speak out, to get it out from you, to talk about, to tell other people. That would be a good medicine against suicidal thoughts.
Or do you think that he had a bad disrupture of his physical rythm because of a new young desirable woman coming into his life? An attack on your rythm can badly affect your mental state until to the point of burn-out. This is being done when you force people to stay awake all time, or if you destroy the day and night rythm. It can also be an effect from drugs. Also some sexual perversions can seriously affect your rythm. Nearly any addiction sucks your energy off and causes depressions.
I am really curious whether the interim report of the investigation will bring more details about this (especially about his time in the military, which could have caused a hidden trauma).
Until then i declare you to the one and only first suicide oficer on this blog 🙂
Brock,
I’m getting even more confused about Curtin signals. The event in question occurred just past 1:30 (see plots, for example, flickr.com/photos/106331196@N07/sets/72157644591711570/).
But in the figure you provided (ADuncan_v_LANL note.jpg), or ALSM provided to you, the origin of the time axis is 7800 s, which is 2:10 am.
Am I missing something?
Also, in the “Bearing” plot, are you sure “Curtin event” label is placed correctly? Shouldn’t it be the one, which is close to 1:30am 200 deg ? It is hard to judge due too low resolution of jpg.
@CosmicAcademy
“(We cannot rule it out completely, since the problem of the mechanical scenario being, that we observed unobservables(!), we didnt observe a mayday call, but the abscence of it etc. – so still some exotic scenario can eventually have happened 0,5 % probability)”
there is no plausible mechanical scenario which would take the plane along thai border then on the N571 air route and around Indonesia, unless pilots under hypoxia accidentally entered those waypoints which has 1 in a billion chance, literally
“Therefore it would be of great help if a reliable motif could be found that would in a sound way explain, why the plane was captured and why it changed the heading (both of these are different events for logical formalization).”
It’s entirely possible his motive was to show the ineptitude of RMAF/malaysian government (which worked) and land on australian territory while the whole world is watching at south china sea. He would then get more than enough media attention to deliver his message.
Unfortunately the second part of his plan didn’t really work well because of other factors (pressure from passengers, F/O etc.) and 1) the plane was left without real pilots and continued on SE heading after entering IO to crash in the official search area or 2) the plane flew erratically through IO sinking south of Christmas Island(missing the optimal approach under pressure) because of fuel exhaustion.
this happened only two weeks before MH370 flight(and he was probably aware of it) :
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26222674
you see, pilot taking the plane to another country, so it wouldn’t be the first time
then look at this one
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_961
hijacked plane, trying to reach Christmas Island, pilot ditches the aircraft under pressure…
striking similarity eh?
I found this an interesting link:
http://www.icao.int/APAC/Meetings/2015%20APSARTF3/Forms/AllItems.aspx
The mh370timeline.pdf has some interesting details, though it is in the category “flimsy” and I don’t know (yet) who made it
Niels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiVav5nBmOE
@airlandseaman,
On March 5, 2015 at 7:18 PM you said:
“The only new information that could lead us away from this current search area would be evidence that the Inmarsat data has some unknown systematic error.”
Another distinct possibility is a reliable measurement of the location and time of an “impact sound event” near the 7th arc and just after 00:19 UTC. Work is ongoing to correlate multiple hydrophone records to search for a possible MH370 impact sound event. If successful, and if it results in a precise location and time that are consistent with the satellite data, then I would expect ATSB to take notice and to add the acoustic location to the priority search area (if it is outside).
If the acoustic location matches a previously predicted end point based on the satellite data, then you will have two completely independent predictions for the same location. In my opinion, this would allow, even demand, a new “higher priority” search area be established there.
@Oleksandr:
Time/bearing plot: The “Curtin event” (W of Maldives) was NW of HA01 = 300 degree bearing. Time plotted would be time RECORDED = over an hour after time CREATED. I see nothing inconsistent about that data point.
The central point of my “montage” jpeg was to relay the data Dr. Duncan used to dismiss the LANL argument. Not only was the bearing miscalculated (should have been 190 degrees, as Dr. Duncan’s team estimated), but the acoustic profile was entirely consistent with ice-cracking events which frequently hit HA01.
A week ago, I posted to this forum Dr. Duncan’s explanation of the rest of the graphs in my jpeg. He explained those graphs were of an event just one hour AFTER the LANL event, which he used to demonstrate that the low-frequency “underlay” which excited LANL is actually a precursor commonly observed in ice-cracking events. I posted them so acoustic experts (I am NOT) could verify for themselves, by COMPARING them to their LANL counterparts.