Sense and Nonsense in MH370 Coverage

go_phoenix_sas_20141008_1mresolution
Search area imaged by Go Phoenix. Courtesy ATSB.

In some ways, the search for MH370 is going exceedingly well this week. The agency leading the search in the Indian Ocean, the Australia Transport Safety Board (ATSB), just released more information concerning technical aspects of the signal data, which will allow the Independent Group and other amateur investigators to refine their analyses of the plane’s final trajectory. The ships scouring the seabed looking for wreckage continue to press forward with their monumental task, and have now completed more than 12,000 square kilometres of the planned search area. And the respected British aviation website, Flightglobal.com, has published a brand-new analysis by independent investigator Simon Hardy which reinforces the work of the ATSB and the IG.

And yet, this isn’t the news that’s making headlines. What is? Try Googling the word “airliner.” The top return will link you to a theory by author Marc Dugain that was published by Paris Match. Dugain believes that MH370 was taken over by hackers and shot down by the US to prevent the plane from being used in a 9/11-style attack on the base at Diego Garcia. I could try to dismantle this notion methodically but suffice to say that it is as baseless as it is incendiary. Meanwhile, as if resonating to the same frequency of bonkersness, the UK Independent published a story today entitled “Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 theories: 17 possible explanations that could reveal fate of plane,” a compendium of conspiracy theories all of which were disproven long ago.

Why are experiencing this onslaught of MH370 nonsense right now? I think the problem is really two-fold.

On the one hand, we have a mystery that is truly unlike any we’ve ever seen before. Whatever happened on the night of March 7/8, it was truly strange and most likely completely unprecedented. It’s so weird, that at first glance it seems like almost anything could have happened to the plane. So the public, who are unfamiliar with the technical details of the case, find it easy to accept outlandish explanations. With the holidays upon us, a shortage of real news might tempt some editors to hold their noses and throw some click-bait into the breach.

The second part of the problem, frankly, comes from the experts. Very smart and technically savvy individuals can get so caught up in the beauty of their mathematics that they mistake their scaffolding of assumptions for bedrock. In other words, they tend to be overconfident. This spring we heard that the searches were “days or hours” away from finding the accoustic pingers attached to MH370’s black boxes. More recently, we’ve heard that the ATSB is so confident that it will soon find the plane that they have a bottle of Moët on ice. The end result is a disconnect between what the experts are broadcasting (certainty) and what the public is perceiving (a fog). In a fog, it’s hard to know who to trust.

What we have to remember is that theories are hypotheses founded on data. In the case of MH370, the data is extremely sparse, and its provenance less than 100 percent. We should recognize and acknowledge that.

To speak in broad generalities, all we really have to go on in trying to understand the MH370 end game are three main pieces of evidence:

  1. Seven electronic “handshake” clusters. It has proven difficult to make these line up as neatly as one would like (see my post “Why MH370 Search Officials Can’t Agree Where to Look”) but they clearly indicate that the plane flew south a matter of minutes after the SDU was turned back on. Reasonable cases can be made for tracks that end up in the general vicinity of where the current search is underway.
  2. An absence of debris. No physical trace has been found despite a long search operation conducted by airplane, ship, and submersible; nor has anything washed ashore. This is unprecedented in modern air-crash history.
  3. An absence of radar data. Once MH370 disappeared from Malaysian/Thai military radar at 18:22 UTC, it was not detected by any other country’s radar system. Early in the search process this was cited by US sources as evidence that the plane went south, not north.

Given this set of clues, two possibilities exist:

  1. MH370 went down in the southern Indian Ocean near the 7th Arc.
  2. MH370 went somewhere else.

The fact is, neither possibility 1 nor 2 fits easily with all the above evidence. But one of them must be correct. So let’s review.

The first possibility has been exhaustively examined for months by experts around the world, both official and independent. Wiring diagrams, satellite ephemera, weather patterns, aircraft performance tables—it has truly been a humbling experience, to witness the breadth and depth of the information that has been summoned and dissected in the pursuit of understanding this scenario. Whether or not the resulting analyses are correct, they are solidly rooted in the facts of the case. The major strike against the southern scenario is the absence of wreckage; either this problem will be solved by the discovery of wreckage on the bottom, or the problem will intensify.

The second possibility encompasses virtually every other “theory” that has been floated. The reason I put “theory” into quotation marks is that most of these scenarios do not make any serious attempt to grapple with the data at hand. For instance, some individuals believe that MH370 went to Christmas Island, an Australian possession south of Java. In order for it to have arrived there, both the BTO and BFO data sets must be wrong. One can imagine that this might be possible, but it would be an extraordinary technical undertaking. Suffice to say, no one has come up with an explanation of how such a thing could be accomplished. And if it were accomplished, then the plane could be basically anywhere within 6 hours’ flying distance of MH370’s last known position, so why should we choose Christmas Island out of all the other possible destinations? Certainly it is possible that the plane landed on Christmas Island, but assertions to that effect are not built on any known information. They are data-less theories. Dugain’s tale, likewise, is completely detached from known data.

A curious feature of data-less theories is how single-mindedly their proponents defend them. I do not know why someone would find a Christmas Island hypothesis compelling, but those who hold it do so passionately. The same goes with every other data-less theory. I am reminded in particular of Chris Goodfellow’s Hero Pilot Ghostplane theory, in which he describes his moment of insight as a kind of Pauline conversion: “Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport.” This profession of faith was, I think, appealing to many readers. But certainty about one’s theory is a crippling handicap for an investigator trying to get to the bottom of a complex case.

This is not to say that Possibility 2 can be ruled out entirely. But any arguments to be made along these lines must at least acknowledge the facts at hand. I believe this can be done, and have argued at length that a partial-spoof scenario can be made to fit the data quite well. Others disagree—citing, among other things, the lack of radar data to the north—but at least when they do so they are disagreeing about specific technical points. It’s not just a question of gut feeling v gut feeling.

Unfortunately, in the milieu of mainstream media, and even more so amid the rabble of click-bait hungry aggregators, it’s emotion, not reasoning, that earns the most upvotes. The worst-case scenario is that by the time the ocean-bed search winds up in May, no wreckage will have been found, and conjunction with lack of surface debris (which according to ATSB analysis should have washed up on the shores of Indonesia months ago) or any other evidence of a southward path, the public will discount the official analysis entirely, along with the painstaking research and analysis that independent investigators have been working hard on over the last nine months. The unrooted madness of M. Dugain and his ilk will prevail.

Hopefully we’ll find some new hard data before then.

137 thoughts on “Sense and Nonsense in MH370 Coverage”

  1. As a so called “conspiricist” I think even I did remark a while ago that if that search comes up empty the paperback writers will move in en-masse.

    Regarding the search – “this should be over quite quickly.” No names.

  2. Marc Dugain’s key character is Jack Ketchum;
    ICON is the Singapore based IATA credentialed crisis management affiliate within the Ketchum network;
    ICON was engaged by Mlsia to assist with the handling of the MH370 event;
    A clever wonk at ICON thought “we need a laff” & engaged Dugain to generate some distraction.
    Who better to execute some ‘SEO’ & digital marketing to pollute the search results?
    Pop that one on the Lazy Susan & spin….

    :Don

  3. You are so clear and concise. You lay things out for us “Regular Folk” so that we can understand facts. Emotional theories are hard to ward off, but the evidence only goes 2 ways as you said. Thank you for all your invaluable information that you share with us. It keeps us up to date and in “Real Time.”

  4. I think that details are still classified for good reasons and although I have some ideas, I simply don’t want to provide anything more than yet another hints I think I fetched this year that it might be really crazy, finally good, but not done yet. And I don’t like any conspiracy theories, never.

  5. Hi All – does anyone who understands how the signals are transmitted in specific blocks of time know how wide those blocks are? Are they us, ms, or seconds?

  6. Thank you for putting this information so clearly and concisely Jeff. I have followed mh370 since the mystery began and if it wasn’t for you I would be totally confused.

  7. I agree that most explanations are speculations without seeking to link any known data. It may be worthwhile to add, that the reliability of the key data and sources that has been the basis of much flaunted analysis itself is appearing suspect by some accounts. That debris should have shown up along the Indonesian coast too has been challenged as being inconsistent with earlier analysis or other models. I guess people crave for something to put their faith in as the MH370 saga has shaken the hitherto unquestioned confidence that the technologies that guarantee safety and tracking are failsafe.

  8. Just been to the ATSB site and it appears the high priority area has bugger all in it resembling a 777 or bit thereof? A normal seabed survey can spot a decent size metal object pretty easily, the MH370 search assets can see a coke can from 1km. The seabed debris will be spread far and wide if it hit at mach 1 as our most esteemed number crunchers say? By North American standards I guess this makes me a jackass but it is fair to say – no cigar?

  9. @Jeff Wise
    Thanks for the valuable remarks. I would add three aspects you didnt mention:

    1)scientists might not be best at police investigation or security issues during terror attacks. So a realistic scenario based on facts is unlikely to come into life here

    2) It is questionable if science can be done here anyway. If you have refusal and prohibition of free discussion and the authorities deny any free access to crucial information and sources and thesis cannot be tested and sources are neither named nor accesible, its nearly impossible to cal the results science, and its amazing what the IG achieved under these circumstances. Overall its depressing.

    3) The source of the myths and nonsense story mostly are from the desktops of paid PR-Advisors and spin doctors. Whenever you try to make sense of the disapearance you stumble about a discussion tzhat is being imposed on you by malevolent forces who try to muddy the waters.

    Also i want to remark that Dugain is certainly not very fact based in his writing, but the maldive story cannot fully be dismissed as long as the possibility of a terror attack is not completely outruled.

    As was shown on this blog, the royal couple of the future King of England and formal Head of State of several Commonwealth nations was vacationing on the maledives by the very time of the disappearance. Especially in a state like malaysia with broad islamic background the Royals are a a very high prime target for any islamic terrorist and the first choice for an atack – much more important than the Petronas Towers. Which is the reason why this couple will live under perfect extra protective cover , especially when travelling abroad. You can well expect that all Commonwealth military in the vicinity would have extra alerts and extra drills to train for any scenario , and of course the A/C deviation drill is standard for all western secret service protection for prime targets. You can also expect that the couple was protected by forces with overhorizon radar access to protect against those low altitude flying intruders like in the 9/1 scenario. So its very unlikely that the command at Butterworth did not know about the flight deviation and the aproaching plane.

    There are some coincidences with the 9/1 scenario.
    a) the Establishment of the califate in the middle east admitting logistics, planing resources and in the case of sysria high tech skills to terrorist fanatics similar to the situation in afghanistan 2001
    b) Transponders off and dramatic change of heading like in all 9/11 hijackings
    c) The heading is directed at a prime high value target. Hitting the royal couple would be a very bad triumph for islamic terrorists. (this becomes clear after Pulau Perakh)

    We can expect that the portrayal of the malaysian military a band of inept, unorganized thugs, who are incapable to bind their shoes , cannot start fighter jets and regularly sleep before their monitors is fairy tale among so many others.

    We can expect that a the deviation became aparent fairly quick and the whole appratus of protective measures came into life within 10 minutes. The fighter jets in Butterworth started their engies as was reported but did not accessnthe air because the plane tok a course south of Butterworth and was then heading NW and not direction Petronas Towers.

    For Security personel it became instantly clear that the royal couple might be at risk . A Satellite was directed at the airplane which is easily detectable in infrared spectre. The analysis of infrared pictures showed prof of a completely depressurized frozen cabin. Nobody was alive and so it was concluded that the plane was electronically commandeered. The Specialists at Langley conter hacked the plane and started to auto land it at the nearest airport with ILS at Banda Aceh. For unknown reasons possibly because of the foregone manipulations with the electronics, the landing failed and the plane was lost to remote control and vanished on the set course to the place where the Inmarsat data predict it to be.

    Because of the catastrophic consequences to the airline industry and the political consequences in malaysia it was concluded to downplay the event until further notice and therefore a partial cover up was agreed with malaysia/IND/OZ.
    This scenario would alow for all known facts and has a high probability because there is no threat as dangerous as the islamic threat and no organizaition is as cruel as ISIS who would be readily prepared to sacrifice hundres of lives for a political gain.

    Just to mention: Syria and Iraque are never near to the backward afghan tribes. The ISIS got access to the high tech weaponry the US left behind and what ASSAD bought.They also got access to high tech and IT skills from syrian and iraquian scientists. Also there was known support of the ISIS from Katar. The Emirs at the gulf coast own a lot of strategic assets and when they have leverage in a company like lets say mercedes they have access to the best engineering skills available on the market.

  10. @CosmicAcademy, on the subject of spin, it was pointed out to me that many of the aviation attorneys who went on CNN to talk about MH370 argued that the cause of the accident was most likely mechanical failure. Reason? The only way that US lawyers could get involved in an MH370 lawsuit would be if Boeing were found to be liable.

  11. Jeff: Thanks for your well written and concise “helicopter view” of where things are at present. Dugain still has me chomping at the bit with the intention of tracking down any TV networks intending to host him and his foul garbage, but my wife has suspended my long distance privileges after she caught me chasing things down in the Maldives last Sunday. I’m OK with this, actually, now that you have fumigated things with your highly visible, well reasoned and ultimately full-sanity bit of proper journalism. Well done, barkeep!

    Any chance CNN will pair you up with David Soucie, with Erin as hostess, in a bid to put Dugain in the bin? He is now officially in pole position on MH370 for the present moment, and one can only hope that someone takes his moment and sticks a fork in it.

  12. @Rand and @jeffwise: I think it is proper to question the assumptions that Mr. Dugain has made in his Paris-Match piece as Jeff has done. However, if there is too vigorous an effort to discredit his piece, it will appear to be a smear-campaign, which could backfire and give him even more credibility. Whether it is right or wrong, Mr. Dugain’s theory is sensational, and is therefore getting some press. On the surface, he has the credentials that warrant news organizations to take him seriously. The theory will ultimately rise or fall based on facts and logic without a need for aviation consultants like Jeff or Mr. Soucie to appear on CNN to weigh-in.

  13. Thanks, Rand. And thanks as well for your ongoing series of thoughtful essays, you’ve added a great deal of much-needed perspective to the proceedings. As to a CNN reunion, it may happen; I’ve been booked to go on the Don Lemon show at 10pm on Monday, December 29th, to talk about MH370. Not sure who else is slated to be there, or if it will actually take place; if it’s still a green light on Monday I’ll put out a tweet.

  14. Just as I had suspected, Pentagon spokesperson David Kirby has emerged with a comment on Marc Dugain’s silliness in its mouthpiece, The Military Times:

    http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2014/12/23/did-navy-shoot-down-mh370/20807653/

    I suppose Mr. Dugain will now claim persecution at the hands of the Pentagon, with the CIA lurking in his garden and the NSA tapping his phone. “Could be” conspiracies have such long traction, able to ensnare the rightfully questioning of authority in an endless cycle of doubt and suspicion.

    Meanwhile, the great thing about Truth is that everyone comes into its awareness eventually, or they die trying.

    Come on, mainstream press, time to step up before Dugain begins appearing on television.

  15. Victor: I hear you, but then while Jeff has a levels of credibility and visibility and the credentials to discuss the matter, we, the more pedestrian members of the peanut gallery really only have our ability to bark our derision. If not Jeff and David to highlight errors of fact and logic, who, then? The subjective domain is now in control of the story, and it will take a counter-story to get things back on track. With any luck, Dugain’s piece will prick the conscience of a solid investigative journalist who will pursue the story with a more reasoned approach and much less sensationalism. A couple of months in Malaysia would do the trick, I would think, but then this costs good coin and also requires the mainstream credentials of an otherwise very busy person. Yes, the subjective domains have their constraints, too.

  16. Victor: I hear you, but then while Jeff has a levels of credibility and visibility and the credentials to discuss the matter, we, the more pedestrian members of the peanut gallery really only have our ability to bark our derision. If not Jeff and David to highlight errors of fact and logic, who, then?

    The subjective domain is now in control of the story, and it will take a counter-story to get things back on track. With any luck, Dugain’s piece will prick the conscience of a solid investigative journalist who will pursue the story with a more reasoned approach and much less sensationalism. A couple of months in Malaysia would do the trick, I would think, but then this costs good coin and also requires the mainstream credentials of an otherwise very busy person. Yes, the subjective domains have their constraints, too. Meanwhile, the likes of Jeff and David doing their thing on CNN will do more than nicely.

  17. @Rand: If Jeff does appear on Don Lemon’s show, hopefully Jeff’s words will be taken more seriously than the host’s previous theories about “black holes” and the “supernatural” causing the disappearance.

  18. @ CosmicAcademy

    “As was shown on this blog, the royal couple of the future King of England and formal Head of State of several Commonwealth nations was vacationing on the maledives by the very time of the disappearance. Especially in a state like malaysia with broad islamic background the Royals are a a very high prime target for any islamic terrorist and the first choice for an atack – much more important than the Petronas Towers. Which is the reason why this couple will live under perfect extra protective cover , especially when travelling abroad. You can well expect that all Commonwealth military in the vicinity would have extra alerts and extra drills to train for any scenario”

    —-

    All true, but doesn’t this suggest it’s more likely the jet over Kudahuvadhoo was a vetted flight headed for GAN airport? Some royals-related possibilities that come to mind include: (1) additional British support or security staff, and associated supplies, (2) celebrities flown in, say a chef or musical performer, (3) paparazzi, (4) an aircraft that would normally land at the now busy MLE airport landing at GAN airport instead, or (5) parking a royals-associated aircraft at MLE over at the possibly more secure GAN (former RAF base).

    Hardly definitive, but also it appears the plane pictured below operates under the auspices of a Sri Lankan firm to make cargo flights to the Maldives:

    http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviation-photos/photos/9/9/1/2358199.jpg

  19. @CosmicAcademy

    “The analysis of infrared pictures showed prof of a completely depressurized frozen cabin.” … what kind of spin is trying to be this?

    As I currently have nothing against PR (Putin & Russia) and no problems with news at RT.com, they released a day ago articles about MH370 (link to the one discussed) and MH17 (IMHO not related absolutely, or somebody was catched in a trap?). To be known, I am for global unity, no wars, no hate, no fear, no stupidity. And I hope. Cheers.

  20. The pot asks the kettle, “Why are experiencing this onslaught of MH370 nonsense right now?”

  21. Here is another theory: MH370 could not be seen by radar after a flash bang and smoke in the cabin and depressurization all at the same time when switching radio frequency, and flew on its course for 6:50 hours (bypassing Beijing) and crashed when it ran out of fuel on the Stanovoy Range in Sakha Republic, Russia 200 mile from nowhere at 58.17,120.85 as seen on Google maps. Call me crazy but logical explanations always prevail over disparate explanations which have led the investigation into the Indian Ocean. Go ahead and laugh but until MH370 is found I will profess this theory.

  22. Hi all,

    Now that Rand mentioned solid investigative journalism, is it just me thinking it’ll be great to have the Serial crew onboard an independent investigation on MH370?

    They did an excellent job in investigating a 1999 murder case. And now they are preparing for the second season.

    Just a thought…

  23. Can someone please tell me if there is consensus as to whether MH 370 was at 35 000ft at the 7th handshake or at sea level. I would think this fact would have major impact on the search area as a plane at 35 000 ft could glide a considerable distance.

  24. Ben:

    The BFO data at 001929 indicates a descent rate at that time of ~5000 ft/min, consistent with the fairly steep descents observed in the simulator. We do not know the altitude at 001929, but it was surely below 35K, and in light of the fact that the login was not completed, probably below 15,000 feet. In any event, the arc “radius” difference between a 7th arc at 35K and 0 ft is less than 5NM, so the uncertainty is well bounded. Compared to the uncertainty in the post fuel exhaustion path, this uncertainty is small. If we add +/- 2NM to the last estimate (-12NM to +20NM), the width grows to -14 to +22NM relative to the average. Still well inside the ATSB search width.

  25. Ben:

    A long glide would not have been possible unless a human was controlling the flight at that time. Assuming it was not controlled by a human at that time, then the post fuel exhaustion path would have ended much closer to the 7th arc.

  26. @jeff

    “For instance, some individuals believe that MH370 went to Christmas Island, an Australian possession south of Java. In order for it to have arrived there, both the BTO and BFO data sets must be wrong.”

    The above statement is correct with the “arrived there” modifier. It could very well have been going there. There is no passion associated with any route. Only an attempt to explain as many issues as possible.

    1) motive/intent

    2) lack of radar sightings

    3) lack of debris

    The Christmas Island postulate accounts for all the above. The SIO postulate accounts for none of the above. The assumption of a fixed AP mode appropriate for a routine flight is also difficult to justify relative to a diverted aircraft.

  27. I’d think if it reached Christmas Island it would been known to be “Found” and continued searches would stop.

  28. @ airlandseaman

    Thank you for clarifying that for me. Let us just hope nobody was gliding or deliberately trying to hide that plane after fuel exhaustion, I just fear that it could be outside the ATSB search area.

  29. Dennis:

    Perhaps a transformational grammar approach can help reconcile what we could perhaps frame as your “Christmas Island” postulate and the “SIO postulate.” The key here, really, is to avoid having to throw the proverbial baby out with the bath water and integrate the two to some degree.

    Depth Structure of SIO postulate:
    The flight most likely terminated in the SIO, as determined by a data-driven analysis. The analysis is being continually refined in both official and unofficial circles in an effort to determine the most highly probable zone for allocating search assets constrained by quantity (vessels, submersibles, HR, etc), time and funding.

    Depth Structure of Xmas Island Postulate:
    The SIO postulate does not provide for a holistic answer as to why the flight would have terminated in the SIO. One theory, for the flight, for example (you added this conditional recenlty), has the intended destination of Xmas Island. This provides for a more holistic frame that integrates motive/intent, the lack of radar sightings and the lack of surface debris, all of which are not accounted for and generally disregard in the SIO postulate.

    Setting aside whether the data/analysis can account for a flight to Xmas Island for a moment (given that this remains a point of contention, we can consider that both of these postulates are valid – as they generally indeed are. From here, we can then attempt to integrate both into a third Depth Structure. It’s not rocket science, but the exercise can be revelatory.

    Depth Structure of Integrated Postulate: The flight most likely terminated in the SIO, as determined by a data-driven analysis. The analysis is being continually refined in both official and unofficial circles in an effort to determine the highly probable zone for allocating search assets constrained by quantity (vessels, submersibles, HR etc), time and funding.

    The SIO as a theorized terminus for the flight, however, does not provide for a reconciliation of all surrounding elements of what is known regarding the flight event, to include motive/intent; the lack of radar detection; and the lack of surface debris. A more holistic frame of the flight event should thus be considered, as it could better inform the location science by way of integrating additional elements, some of which are presently unknown, given that they are in the subjective domain of human action.

    It has been determined that locating the debris is a priority in terms of the discovery process concerning the flight, while an investigation into the motives/intent for the apparent and likely but yet unproved diversion for the flight is likewise no less of a priority.

    A general lack of perceived transparency on the part of authorities involved, both real and imaginary, has generally led to a high level of speculation regarding the circumstances of the event of the flight, the data set and analysis inherent to the location science. It presents as reasonable for some to assume that certain information is not being disclosed by some of the authorities involved in the investigation into the flight event and the efforts to locate the aircraft.

    If you stopped here – right here – my guess is that you would find general agreement amongst most people in our community. Why? Because it is a generally accurate portrayal of reality.

    As for your three points of contention, I would agree with you that they are central to any holistic frame of the flight event argue the following:

    1) motive/intent

    It is clear that if one or more persons was responsible for intentionally diverting the flight, then they would have had 1. a motive; and 2. a destination. Both remain unknown, while one would could assume that the investigating authority (the Malaysian government) is pursuing answers into both; the flight data (and less so voice) recorders could better inform this aspect of the flight event. I would argue, meanwhile, that there isn’t any official party actively pursuing a holistic frame of the motive/intent/destination, as the Malaysian authorities generally operate with the politically expedient/hedging/risk adverse approach of not investigating much of anything that occurs in Malaysia.

    2) lack of radar sightings

    Assuming that you are indicating the lack of Indonesian radar having informed the flight, I would argue that perhaps such radar data/information was never clearly requested by the Malaysians (as would fit their MO), while everyone would assume that it had been. Meanwhile, the Indonesians have no interest in assisting the Malaysians with much of anything, while the Americans et al have likewise assumed that such data/information was requested by the Malaysian authorities. Or, the Indonesians were simply asleep at the screen that night, which while perhaps surprising, is nonetheless not beyond being perfectly reasonable. I would argue, however, that to conclude that the lack of radar detection is specifically due to the aircraft not fly through whatever airspace would be hazardous, at best.

    3) lack of debris

    This is quite indeed quite troubling, and then based upon precedent alone. It can be argued either way, but as Jeff has pointed out, if the debris is not located in the SIO by May of next year, all bets are off, and then anyone will be free to produce their own, Discovery Channelesque program or write a book regarding “what really happened to flight MH370.” We could say that Dugain was a bit early in this regard, but then perhaps his Paris Match piece fits his TV production schedule quite well.

    As with a moth to a flame, a fixation on any specific frame of who did what when and how at this point is suggested as quite hazardous. Jeff speculated as to a perfectly plausible frame for a northern route, yet he is clearly not wedded to it, as it is quite clear that he is not driving himself to distraction in pursuing its verification. And why? Because he simply has no personal stake in the matter. I would go so far as to say that it his northern route scenario was, really, more of an experiment of sorts. His lack of providing any defense whatsoever of the frame – and then on his own blog – is proof of the concept that he does not give a tinker’s toss, either way.

    As for the location science, Matty has best framed reasonable doubts as to the provenance of the data and the robustness of the data. The IG, too, has been focused on its navel and testing its conclusions, while the Peanut Gallery has been holding it in check and Dr. Ulich and Gysbreght and others have likewise not allowed them to skate by without running the gauntlet. At the end of the day, all is beginning to converge in terms of the location science. I feel quite confident that the BFO tweakers know what they are doing, and that analysis of the data set does indeed provide for the best chance of locating the debris. The convergence can be looked upon as collective stupidity or group think or even a localized form of mass hysteria, yet its process is sane, from what I can perceive, and thus its conclusions are likely also.

    Meanwhile, “waiting until the debris is located and the flight recorders recovered” would appear to present dangers of its own. Evidence disappears, voice box recordings are conveniently misplaced, memories are forgotten and witnesses to the process even die. THIS is, in fact, how one manages to make a B 777 disappear.

  30. @Rand

    Just to be clear, I never contended that the aircraft landed on Christmas Island. My analytics from days going back to the Duncan blog supported it as a destination only. That has not been a “recent conditional”.

    The only other qualifier I would have relative to your post is the refinement of the BFO data. I do not believe it can be refined much further. A while ago I suggested the previously unmodeled altitude dither while on AP as an additional source of BFO noise. I have made a fair effort to quantify what this dither might be in terms of an order of magnitude. I have one now, but the support is too anecdotal to publish here for the moment.

  31. @Rand and @Dennis: With the data at hand, an approach to Christmas Island leading to a crash cannot neither be proven nor disproven. In my opinion, it is one of the scenarios we keep on the back burner in the event that current search fails or new evidence surfaces.

  32. MH370 fuel and flight time

    Hi Jeff,

    The last received ACARS message from MH370 was at 01:07 MYT. It reported 43.800 kg of fuel remaining.

    A Boeing 777 200 ER consumes at average 6900 kg/hr so that leaves 06:20 hours of fly time after 01:07 MYT ACARS message.
    At 07:27 MYT it would have run out of fuel. Inmarsat had a last (incomplete) handshake at 08:19 MYT.

    If we calculate the theoretical fuel consumption: 43.800 kh / 7+ hours = 6100 kg/hr. Can that be done with a 777 200ER?

    What did the plane do in 52 minutes without fuel? Glide? Float? At what speed? Did Inmarsat include that into their calculations?

  33. Rand,

    What did you mean by “a loss of onboard equilibrium” and how did this knock out SDU, etc.?

    My hypothesis with regard to a structural failure (for example, previously repaired right wind tip fell out) involves a subsequent short circuit in the electrical systems and poor manageability in terms of turns and altitude. Under this scenario the only intent was to land somewhere, probably not as quick as possible but rather as safe as possible. There is a slight change in the route heading after IGARI towards BITOD, which implies the requirement to activate certain wind mechanisms to perform a turn. Consequently, this could trigger a structural failure (this is to the question why it happened between IGARI and BITOD and not earlier).

    Once again, I am not locked into this particular scenario, but it appears to be quite reasonable. It explains a number of things not explained by other theories. The aircraft could possibly maintain its stability in a ‘straight’ flight, perhaps at certain airspeeds.

    Oleksandr.

  34. @Victor

    Yes you are right about my entry on reddit. that was a trial at satire, but nobody was laughing. I wanted to tease Dugain and make fun of his investigative skills, because he was there and totally missed the very facts that could have made his story worthwhile, which were the presence of the royal couple by the time of the disappearance on the maldives and, even more the extra security and extra precautions provided by the accompanying special ops unit SO14. He did not even bother to ask the question why he was approached by secret service agents from Britain and not from the US, as would be expected since his story was claiming US responsibility for a “shootdown” scenario.

    Well, the joke did not work, nobody laughed and i realized that this was more serious than i thought. So i made the edit later with a warning that the entry was meant as a satire.

    But after thinking for two days i realized that there might lie more truth in a satirical thought than i expected, and it came to me, that it is not a joke at all, but might even be the smoking gun we all are looking for, because

    a) terror attack against the royal couple is a robust motif and very realistic (no nonsense scenario, but one of the two or three realistic scenarios at all)
    b) if we dismiss the sightings on the maldives we have the possibility to reconcile all known facts with the mainstream hypothesis that the INMARSAT data are not spoofed or faked
    c) this would also give a good explanation for the fact, that the SIO search started in MArch near the generally right location
    d) it would also account for the fact, that the search is British dominated
    e) it would add a very important feature into the discussion, that is very close to be a fact: The extra protection of the royalties on the Maldives will include surveillance of air traffic for any irregularities around the place of stay. Randheli Island, Noona Atoll, Maldives, which is only 2500 km from the last radar sighting of 9M MRO. Its one of the standard drills after 9/11. And when a Jumbo Airliner in reach of the Maldives already covers a third of the way to the royal couple you can bet, that all security details got very very alert including the command in London, even if the entire Malaysian RMAF slept, what is a fairy-tale of Hishamudin.
    f) Those security details have any means at their disposable, to stop such atacks. satellites, high tech radar, military support on request, whatever they need. For ordinary people its just far beyond imagination what these extra protection includes. And for good reason details are not known to the public.
    g) So the air traffic surveillance by British elite forces adds a dramatic new fact to all scenarios
    h) It gives a good explanation why the assumed attack was thwarted at the Nicobar Islands.
    i) it explains entirely acceptable, why the Investigation knew of the hypoxia induced flight, because if they employed satelite fotos high resolution infrared spectre, they could see, whether the cabin was frozen or not. Since it is safe to say, that the people in whitehall got notice of the deviation early on , it is highly likely that these satellite images were taken, because in our civilization, we dont want to shoot airliners with people alive onboard. we check for any possible means to save them.
    j) This explains also why the US NSA have confidential data which are unaccessible for the public about 9M MRO. These might be the satellite images.
    k) the best about this scenario is, the royalty protection unit SO14 must have
    realized this possible threat , even if it was not a hijacking but some unfortunate mechanical fault, and checked on it.
    l) it also explains why there is so much secrecy and desinformation involved: For obvious good reason the advisories, protocols, drills and procedures for the protection of the royal family are not known to the public. If it was a hijack attack, the people behind it shall not be alerted to what they did wrong

    Summary: the incident might be connected to the protection measures for the Royals on the Maldives. If this is true, The Special Ops will protect their procedures and eforts by all available measures. The INMARSAT data would be aceptable. They are parts of the truth that hide the real reasons. The files of this incident will be closed for the next fifty years. We will never know the whole story. To confirm this narrative The Prime Minister should be asked by a member of Parliament, Whether the royal couple was moved to a safe place in the night of the disapearance of 9M MRO and if not, why the defence minister did not realize possible teror atack at the very heart of the Nation.

    Mind: this is dead serious and no satire. Still, i am not wedded to this scenario, but i think it can lead to new ideas and perspectives

  35. Dennis: I understand that you have not previously claimed that the aircraft landed on Xmas Island; I did not claim that you did, either. As for Jeff, I can’t speak for him, but perhaps he was generalizing when he referenced “…some individuals believe MH370 went to Christmas Island,” rather than referring to you specifically. As for my reference to your “recent conditional,” I was referring to your softening your position an are now advancing Xmas Island as an alternative, rather than a definitive.

    My point, really, is that “arrived at” or “went to” are Surface Structures of the Depth Structure of “the SIO is not rational in terms of an intended destination.”

  36. Olexandr: the “loss of onboard equilibrium” is in referent to the time period immediately following the deviation at IGARI up until power is RESTORED to the SDU. I would argue that some catalyst involving intervention resulted in this loss of equilibrium.

  37. Jeff,
    The only thing to be gained by Dugain’s absurd conjecture is insight into his own dislike and mistrust of the United States. It is surprising that something so outrageous could gain any traction. One might assert that openness to and perpetuation of such an idea is more useful in revealing the world zeitgeist towards the United States than actually finding MH370.
    Passenger planes have, unfortunately, been shot down before by governments. This is not a huge secret. Wikipedia (the MOST reliable source of information in the world, of course…..:) ) is full of information about passenger jets that have been shot down by governments. For example, in 1988, the U.S. shot down Iran Air Flight 665 in Iranian airspace while it was on its normal flight path and was emitting squawks to indicate that it was a passenger jet. We admitted to it, even though we were very clearly in the wrong.
    Korean Air flight 007 was shot down by a Soviet fighter in 1983, killing all 269 onboard. More recently, in 2001 Siberia airlines 1812 was shot down by the Ukraine over the Black Sea, and then, of course, there was MH17.
    So why would the United States shoot down a Malaysia Airlines plane and then try to cover it up? If the plane really was headed towards Diego Garcia with a motive of terrorism, then the United States would have been justified in shooting the plane down. In fact any country that was in the situation that Dugain suggested would have the support of the entire world, because every country has the right to protect itself from attack. Let’s face it, if MH370 was going to be used in an attack on Diego Garcia against the U.S., it would have been all over the news and it would have had the maximum spin from the self-righteous angle that not only did we have every right to shoot it down, but that it would then become necessary to seek justice against our aggressors.
    The only thing I can say in defense of Dugain and his followers is that most people do not understand science. They doubt it even when it is sound and there is a great deal of support for it; case in point, climate change. So in the absence of understandable information people cling to whatever might reinforce their residual world view.
    The science behind the disappearance of MH370 is extremely opaque and complex to most people, even those who have a scientific background. So when the foundation of the Inmarsat data is called into question (which, in my opinion, it should be questioned….and for more reasons than one) people may have a tendency to throw out any “science” altogether and feel that anything is possible. Perhaps people cling to Dugain’s idea because it has all of the elements of a good story: a convenient super power bad guy, a victim and a motive, however flimsy.
    The truth of it is that even if we did have the exact data, the only thing that really matters here is the motive. At this point, even if we find pieces of the plane people will still doubt their authenticity because of the unfortunate way that this investigation has been handled.
    One has to feel that the only way to truly solve this mystery and find the plane is to establish a reason, or motive. We can use science to piece together events, but when the human element is involved the truth of a situation is often muddled.
    Establish a motive or reason, and you will find the plane.

  38. @Rand

    Sorry there. I have had a lifelong problem with conditionals and what they reference.

    Also, please interpret any statements I made relative to Xmas Island being definitive as tongue in cheek. I have no idea where the airplane is. Just plausible possibilities.

  39. Victor – The Aceh landing under a brighter light? It’s almost a separate state.

    Under a wave of intolerance
    RICHARD PADDOCK THE WALL STREET JOURNAL DECEMBER 27, 2014 12:00AM

    DEVASTATED a decade ago by the Indian Ocean tsunami, the Indonesian province of Aceh has turned in its recovery to religion and strict sharia law.

    Many Acehnese say the tsunami was a test from God that brought blessings amid the heartbreak: an end to nearly three ­decades of civil war, the opening of Aceh to the outside world and almost $5 billion in international aid.

    The far-reaching changes after the tsunami, which killed an estimated 167,540 people in Indonesia, also made it easier for local leaders to expand the power of religious law, including the public caning of religious offenders. It is the only region in Indonesia where sharia law is allowed.

    “Acehnese have a new way of living now,” said Ramli Sulaiman, a former fighter in Aceh’s separatist movement who served in the provincial parliament.

    He helped push through legislation for stricter sharia punishment, including up to 100 lashes for gays and adulterers caught having sex.

    The tsunami on December 26, 2004, left 228,000 dead or missing in a dozen countries. Nowhere was the devastation and loss of life worse than in Aceh. Along the coast, waves flattened neighbourhoods as much as 3km inland and left behind a wasteland of corpses and debris.

    INTERACTIVE: Tsunami 10 years on

    The devastation was so overwhelming that separatist rebels of the Free Aceh Movement and the government of then-president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono agreed to end hostilities to help deliver emergency aid and bury the dead. By August 2005, they had hammered out a deal to end Aceh’s 29-year fight for independence, at the time Asia’s longest running war.

    The agreement expanded the province’s autonomy and handed it a greater share of government revenue. It also allowed political parties to be set up, and one established by former rebels, the Aceh Party, came to dominate local politics.

    Aceh already had begun implementing sharia law. In the years just before the disaster. separate police and courts were set up in parallel with the secular legal system. During the past decade, sharia has taken a firmer hold of the province.

    This year, the provincial government extended sharia law to non-Muslims and added the provisions that adulterers and homosexuals could be caned.

    Governor Zaini Abdullah, a former rebel leader who lived for years in exile in Sweden, said the movement’s goal was independence, not sharia. But the religious law was popular among Aceh’s historically devout residents, he said, and the former rebels embraced it.

    Sometimes called “Mecca’s veranda”, Aceh is Indonesia’s closest point to the Middle East and the place where Arab traders first arrived, bringing Islam with them. “Religion and Acehnese are like flesh and blood,” says Abdullah.

    Some investors have worried in the past that other parts of Indonesia could begin to adopt more conservative versions of Islam. The country has pockets of radical Islam and a history of religion-­inspired terror attacks.

    But sharia law hasn’t spread to other parts of the country and experts doubt it will for now, given most Indonesians’ preference for a more moderate version of Islam.

    Aceh has paid a price for its insistence on Islamic law. In addition to criticism from rights groups, the area has been slow to attract large-scale foreign investment or lure tourists to its pristine beaches. Many outsiders are wary of operating in a place ruled by religious law.

    Sharia is “an investment killer,” says Paul Rowland, a Jakarta-based political consultant.

    Aceh’s religious police, the Wilayatul Hisbah, enforce the rules. Operating independently of conventional law enforcement, its officers patrol the streets, ordering young women to wear looser clothing, telling men to attend mosque for prayers and admonishing unmarried couples not to sit close together.

    More than 150 people have been caned in public since 2010 for offences such as gambling, drinking and improperly associating with members of the opposite sex, according to Amnesty Inter­national, which has called the practice “cruel, inhumane and degrading”.

    Religious leaders acknowledge some excesses. In rural Aceh, women were prohibited from straddling motorbikes and enforcers accosted girls about their skirts being too short. In 2010, three Wilayatul Hisbah officers raped a female university student at a sharia police station after she was arrested for being in public with a man. Two of the three officers were sentenced to prison and the local sharia police chief was removed.

    Aceh officials defend the sharia rules, saying they aren’t as harsh as in some parts of the world.

    “We don’t kill or stone people or cut off hands or anything like that,” says Syahrizal Abbas, head of the Shariah Islam Agency in Aceh. “Our goal is for people to have good behaviour, to have good jobs, to always seek better lives for themselves.”

    One 43-year-old enforcer says he administered canings to two men for sleeping with women who weren’t their wives.

    At nearly 113kg, he is an imposing figure when he wields his metre-long rattan cane. At canings, he wears an executioner-style hood and full-length robes so that only his eyes show. The punishment takes place in public and crowds gather to watch.

    An investigator for the Wilayatul Hisbah, he says he accepts the assignment as his duty but doesn’t enjoy it.

    His goal isn’t to hurt the violators but to humiliate them publicly and cleanse their sins so they can go to heaven, he says. Before a caning, he practices whacking a pillow so he won’t hit too hard, or too softly.

    He imagines he is striking one of his own children.

    “Let’s say I am a father who is irritated with his child because the child is being a nuisance,” he says. “When I cane someone, I don’t have hatred in my heart at all.”

    Backers of the stricter provisions say punishing gays and ­lesbians is necessary to uphold community standards and to protect against disease — even if the rules may antagonise international organisations that came to Aceh’s aid after the tsunami.

    “In the teachings of sharia, a man is forbidden from conducting sexual relations with another man,” says Abbas, the Shariah Islam Agency head. “We hope such behaviour never happens in Aceh.”

  40. @Matty – Perth: It doesn’t take a lot of effort to find evidence that Aceh is a hotbed for Islamist extremism and terrorist training.

    I still view the landing and takeoff at Banda Aceh as possible, even if logic says it is not the most likely scenario. In fact, the path that includes a loiter around Aceh followed by the waypoints BEDAX and SouthPole (i.e, true track at 180 deg due south) matches the satellite data well and produces an end point at 34.24S, 93.78E (essentially, where the longitude for BEDAX crosses the 7th arc). I have not talked a lot about this path recently because it is part of the priority zone currently being searched so its viability is currently being tested. The end point is also not too far from the candidate end point presented in the Inmarsat paper (Ashton et al.).

    I should add that for the last couple of days, GO Phoenix has been doubling-back over this part of its search area. This may indicate that it has found something of interest. It can also mean there has been an equipment failure of some type, which has been the cause for past search path irregularities.

    Victor

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