Ever since the Independent Group first issued a public report offering guidance as to where search efforts for MH370 should be concentrated, people have been asking for details on group members’ calculated routes. Unfortunately, everyone is doing this work for free, in their spare time, and have other things to attend to as well, so providing explanations has not been a priority. At last, however, Richard Godfrey, one of the hardest-working of all, has gallantly stepped up and delivered a polished-up version of his latest theory so that all interested parties can have a look under the hood. Above is a screen shot of his model, which he dubs “MH370 Flight Path Model V13/1 Final,” as it appears in Google Earth. Details after the jump.
At left is a close up of the route’s end point, overlain on a map of the current underwater search.
Richard describes the basic parameters of the route as follows:
(1) the Auto Pilot was engaged and had waypoints such as ISBIX and S35E90 programmed, hence a constant track for the end game.
(2) the Auto Throttle was engaged and the Air Speed followed a Long Range Cruise simulation equation for Mach Speed provided by Victor.
(3) the True Air Speed is calculated from the Mach Speed taking the Air Temperature into account.
(4) the Ground Speed is calculated from the Air Speed taking the Winds into account.
Here’s an Excel file with all the data: MH370 Flight Path Model V13.1 Final
Some explanation of the image above from Richard:
The V13.1 End Point is 3.0 km further WSW than V13.0 and both are close to Victor’s latest End Point.
The Yellow lines are the Fugro Equator survey area and the V13.1 End Point is positioned centrally in the survey area.
The Light Blue lines are the Fugro Discovery search area and the V13.1 End Point is positioned within the current search area.
The two Red lines are Barry’s latest 7th Arc at 0 m (left) and 10,668 m (right) at 00:19:29 where I calculate MH370 is at a Geopotential Altitude of 35,166.9 feet or 10,718.9 m.
The V13.1 End Point is on Barry’s 7th Arc at 10,668 m.
The Brown line is where I place the Ping Ring at 00:19:37.443 at a Geopotential Altitude of 34,537.45 feet using a simple .kml circle generator centred on a sub-satellite point at 0.528261N 64.472083E with a radius of 4941.5787 km.